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Despite the possibly ideal environment Hawaii presents for bicycling, the bicycle is losing ground to automobiles and other motorized forms of transportation in the state. Although there has been
growth in recreational, off-road cycling, the use of bicycles for commuting and short-distance trips in Hawaii has declined steadily. The
moped has found greater acceptance than the bicycle as a low-cost
alternative to the automobile (1). With its year-round temperate
climate, concentrated pattern of development, and its populations
health-conscious attitudes and lifestyles, Hawaii could be a bicyclists paradise, but it is not. One of the reasons the bicycle has not
gained greater prominence in Hawaii is the risk associated with
bicycling (2). Bicycling in Hawaii is perceived by many to be
dangerous. Moreover, the described study found that in the majority of police-reported collisions between bicycles and motor
vehicles more often than not the driver of the motor vehicle is at
fault. Motorists are at fault approximately 83.5 percent of the time,
whereas bicyclists are at fault 16.5 percent of the time. Many bicyclists may feel that they are fighting a losing battle, and that it is
better to stay off the roads and streets of Hawaii. The research
described intended to seek a better understanding of bicycle collisions in Hawaii so that an initial step could be taken in the design
University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Urban and Regional
Planning, Porteus Hall 107, 2424 Maile Way, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822.
RESEARCH QUESTIONS
The research described was motivated by a number of underlying
questions. Are bicycle collisions increasing or decreasing in
Hawaii? What are the characteristics of bicyclists and motorists
involved in collisions? What human and other factors are involved?
Are there differences between the bicyclists and motorists involved
in collisions? Who is at fault, most of the time, in collisions between
bicyclists and motorists? Is it possible to model the likelihood of
fault among those involved in bicycle collisions? When are bicyclists most likely to be at fault? When are motorists at fault?
Approaching the problem of bicycle collisions by asking who is at
fault is a novel feature of the analysis. Setting aside for the moment
the normative aspects of fault, if it were possible to understand
the characteristics of motorists and bicyclists, as well as the
circumstances in bicyclemotor-vehicle collisions that contribute
to the determination of fault, then perhaps populations, crash
circumstances, or locations could be targeted for efforts to improve
bicycle safety. Answers to questions of fault may be useful in the
design of bicycle safety policies and programs.
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years Hawaii has been the recipient of several large federal trafficsafety research grants, including the Crash Outcome Data Evaluation System (CODES) cooperative agreements with the National
Highway Safety Traffic Administration. The CODES agreements
involve the development of traffic safety data bases and support of
various traffic safety research projects. The CODES project provided an opportunity to acquire as well as to clean and edit the data
used in this analysis.
The data were transferred from HDOT on 9-track tapes, from
which they were converted into an SAS data base for analysis on a
dedicated Sun Sparc 10 workstation housed at the Department of
Urban and Regional Planning, University of Hawaii. Three statistical techniques are used. First, the pattern of monthly bicycle
collisions is modeled using a standard Poisson distribution. This
makes it possible to determine whether bicycle collisions are
increasing, decreasing, or staying approximately the same. Second,
various descriptive and distributional statistics on bicycle collisions
during the period 1986 to 1991 are presented. Standard statistical
tests (z-tests) are employed to compare bicyclists with motorists and
bicycle collisions with motor-vehicle collisions.
A logistic regression equation explaining fault among motorvehicle drivers involved in collisions with bicyclists as a function of
various personal characteristics (of motorists and bicyclists) and
crash and environmental factors is estimated. Fault is determined
by investigating officers and reported on crash report forms. The
logistic model explains fault (F) among motorists as a function of
various covariates such as age (A), age squared, alcohol and drug
use (AD), helmet use among bicyclists (H), rural location (R),
turning actions (T), and wet roadway surfaces (W) using the
following form:
loge{Pr(F) [1 ] Pr(F)]} 5 a0 1 a1 A 1 a2 A2 1 a3 AD 1 a4 H
1 a5R1 a6 T 1 A7W
FIGURE 1
(1)
FINDINGS
During the period 1986 to 1991 the annual number of policereported bicycle collisions reached a low in 1989 and increased in
1990 and 1991. The actual number of monthly collisions, the
monthly predicted number of collisions (using a standard Poisson
model), and the annual average is plotted in Figure 1. The Poisson
model assumes that events (such as bicycle collisions) occur as discrete counts, independently in time (or space), with mean equal to
Kim and Li
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clist helmet use, and driver turning actions. The odds ratios give a
convenient measure of the strength of the relationship between fault
and each of the various covariates. An odds ratio greater than 1 signifies a strong effectthe larger the value, the stronger the positive
effect. Odds ratios less than 1 indicate a negative relationship. Odds
ratios close to 1 suggest weak effects. The odds ratio of 2.4 for
bicycle-helmet use means that in a collision the motorist is 2.4 times
more likely to be at fault when the bicyclist is helmeted than when
the bicyclist is not helmeted. Moreover, motorists are 2.8 times more
likely to be at fault when they are turning.
The age effects require further explanation. Although fault is generally negatively related to motorist age (as age increases, the odds
of being classified at fault decline), and positively related to bicyclist age, the relationship is not so simple. Other studies have
pointed out that there is a U-shaped relationship between bicyclist
age and accident ratesthat the number of accidents per billion km
are highest for the youngest and oldest age groups (9). For this reason, an age-squared term was introduced into the logistic regression
equation to better capture the U-shaped distribution associated with
collision involvement and age. The use of the age-squared term is a
standard practice in epidemiological studies to account for the nonlinearity of the effect of age.
When the log-odds (logit) of being classified at fault are graphed
against age for both bicyclists and motorists involved in collisions
with bicyclists, two intersecting U-shaped distributions are produced as shown in Figure 2. Several points are noteworthy. When
bicyclists at fault are compared with motorists at fault, it becomes
clear that bicyclists are younger by far when they start riding than
motorists are when they start driving. For most age groups, however,
motorists are more likely to be at fault, with the exception of
younger cyclists and older cyclists (those over age 40); the two
curves intersect at age 40. It should also be noted that the fault curve
for bicyclists is much steeper than the curve for motorists, suggesting that bicyclists are subject to more pronounced and stronger age
effects. According to these curves, however, the bicyclists least
likely to be at fault in a collision are between the ages of 30 and 35,
whereas the safest motorists are somewhere between the ages of 40
and 50. Those motorists most likely to hit bicyclists and be classified at fault are the groups under 20 years old and those 70 years old.
DISCUSSION OF RESULTS
Police-collected crash data used in the study may not include all the
bicycle collisions in Hawaii. Many minor collisions may not even be
reported. The findings and results of the study are best interpreted as
Kim and Li
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FIGURE 2
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REFERENCES
1. Kim, K., D. Takeyama, and L. Nitz. Moped Safety in Honolulu, Hawaii.
Journal of Safety Research, Vol. 26, No. 3, 1995, pp. 177185.
2. Kim, K., and C. Albert-Thenet. Attitudes of Honolulu Cyclists Towards
Proposed Bicycle Policies. Presented at 75th Annual Meeting of the
Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 1995.
3. ODay, J. NCHRP. Synthesis of Highway Practice 192: Accident Data
Quality. TRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 1993.
4. Kim, K., L. Nitz, J. Richardson, and L. Li. Analyzing the Relationship
Between Crash Types and Injuries in Motor Vehicle Collisions in Hawaii.
In Transportation Research Record 1467, TRB, National Research
Council, Washington, D.C., 1994.
5. Kim, K., L. Nitz, J. Richardson, and L. Li. Personal and Behavioral Predictors of Automobile Crash and Injury Severity. Accident Analysis and
Prevention, Vol. 27, No. 4, 1995, pp. 469481.
6. Jobson, J. D. Applied Multivariate Analysis. In Categorical and Multivariate Methods, Vol. II, Springer Verlag, N.Y., 1992.
7. Agresti, A. Categorical Data Analysis. John Wiley and Sons, N.Y., 1990.
8. Feinberg, S. The Analysis of Cross Classified Categorical Data. The MIT
Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1980.
9. Thom, R. and A. Clayton. Accident Data Requirements for Improving
Cycling Safety. In Transportation Research Record 1405, TRB, National
Research Council, Washington, D.C., 1993.
Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Bicycling and Bicycle
Facilities.