Vehicle Miles Traveled in Massachusetts

Current Patterns and Future Growth

MAPC Annual Meeting

June 2, 2010
Timothy Reardon
Metropolitan Area Planning Council
Data Services Department
 Acknowledgements

MassGIS
Christian Jacqz
christian.jacqz@state.ma.us

MIT Department of Urban Studies and Planning

Joe Ferreira
jf@mit.edu
 Carbon Emissions by Sector
United States Massachusetts
Agriculture Agriculture
7% Commercial 5%
Commercial Transportation Transportation
6% 7%
29% 36%
Industrial Industrial
19% 8%

Residential
15%

Residential
5%
Electric Power Electric Power
34% 29%

Source: MA Department of Transportation,

from US Energy Information Administration (SEDS)
 Carbon Emissions by Mode
Cars and light trucks
account for >60% Boats and Locomotives
2%
Pipelines
2%
Lubricants
1%
Ships
of transportation 3%
Passenger
Cars
36%
emissions nationwide Aircraft
9%

Heavy-Duty
Vehicles
19%

Light Trucks
28%

Source: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the US Transportation

Sector 1990-2003, EPA Office of Air Quality March 2006
 Past and Projected Carbon Emissions
Current transportation-
related carbon
emissions >33 million
metric tons of CO2
equivalents
(mmtCO2e)
Projected to increase
by>10% from 2010 -
2020
Possible 28% increase
from 1990 - 2020
Source: Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Levels: 1990 Baseline
and 2020 Business as Usual Projections, MA DEP July 1st, 2009
 New VMT Data in Massachusetts
16 million Registry of Motor Vehicles inspection
records, 2005 - 2007
Processed, geocoded, and analyzed by MassGIS
4 million passenger vehicles
130 million miles travelled DAILY
Nearly 50 billion miles per year
2.3 billion gallons of gas per year (@ 20 MPG)
22 million metric tons of CO2 annually
(@ 0.0092 metric tons per gallon)

Who is driving and where are they going?

 Driving Patterns—Location Matters
Daily VMT per
Household, by
Municipality
< 25 miles per day
25 - 50 miles per day
50 - 75 miles per day
75 - 100 miles per day
> 100 miles per day

• In 149 cities and towns, the average

household drives more than 75 miles
per day; these towns comprise18% of
total population, contribute 26% of
total VMT

• 8 Inner Core cities have 16% of

population, generate 8% of total VMT
Source: US Census, MA RMV, MassGIS, MAPC analysis
 Location Really Matters
Average
Daily VMT
per Household
< 25 miles per day
25 - 50 miles per day
50 - 75 miles per day
75 - 100 Miles per day
> 100 miles per day

Average
% of MA % of MA VMT per
Households Total VMT Household
Inner Core 22% 13% 32
Regional Urban
32% 28% 46
Centers
Maturing
19% 22% 63
Suburbs
Developing
25% 34% 75
Suburbs
Rural Towns 2% 2% 79 Source: US Census, MA RMV, MassGIS, MAPC analysis
 Where Do People Live?
Households per
Square Kilometer
< 100 households
100 - 500 households
500 – 1,000 households
1,000 – 2,500 households
>2,500 households

% of MA
Households
Inner Core 22%
Regional Urban
32%
Centers
Maturing
19%
Suburbs
Developing
25%
Suburbs
Rural Towns 2%
Source: US Census, MA RMV, MassGIS, MAPC analysis
 Where Do the Vehicles Live?
Registered Vehicles
per Square Kilometer

< 200 vehicles

200 – 400 vehicles
400 – 1,000 vehicles
1,000 - 2,500 vehicles
> 2,500 vehicles

% of MA % of MA
Households Vehicles
Inner Core 22% 16%
Regional Urban
32% 29%
Centers
Maturing
19% 22%
Suburbs
Developing
25% 31%
Suburbs
Rural Towns 2% 2%
Source: US Census, MA RMV, MassGIS, MAPC analysis
 How Many Vehicles per Household?
Registered Vehicles
per Household
< 1 car per household
1 - 1.5 cars per hh
1.5 - 2 cars per hh
> 2 cars per household

% of MA % of MA Vehicles per
Households Vehicles Household
Inner Core 22% 16% 1.15
Regional Urban
32% 29% 1.45
Centers
Maturing
19% 22% 1.93
Suburbs
Developing
25% 31% 2.09
Suburbs
Rural Towns 2% 2% 2.15
Source: US Census, MA RMV, MassGIS, MAPC analysis
 How Much is Each Vehicle Driving?
Average VMT per
Vehicle

< 30 miles per day

30 - 35 miles per day
35 - 40 miles per day
>40 miles per day

1,600,000
VMT per Vehicle
1,400,000
Number of Vehicles

1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
-
5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
Daily VMT
Source: US Census, MA RMV, MassGIS, MAPC analysis
Where Are People Working?
Employment Density
(jobs per sq.
kilometer)
< 100 jobs per sq km
100 – 500 jobs per km
500 – 1,000 jobs per km
> 1,000 jobs per sq km

Source: Dunn & Bradstreet, MassGIS, MAPC analysis

 How Much Are Commuters Driving?
Average auto
commute distance
(round trip)
< 15 miles
15 – 20 miles
20 – 25 miles
25 – 35 miles
> 35 miles

Commute Distances and VMT per HH

110
Average VMT per Household

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
-
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Average Auto Commute Distance (miles)
Source: US Census, MA RMV, MassGIS, MAPC analysis
What About All Those Errands?
Weighted Average
Distance, Common
Household Destinations
< 1 mile
1 - 2 miles
2 - 4 miles
4 - 8 miles
> 8 miles

Source: Dunn & Bradstreet, MassGIS, MAPC analysis

 Putting it All Together
Household VMT is statistically correlated with:
• Density
• Access to Transit
• Distance to Shops and Services
• Proximity to Employment
• Land Use Diversity Household Density and Daily VMT

• Income
Average Daily VMT per Household
60

50

40

30

20

10

-
50 200 350 500 650 800 950 1,150 1,600
Households per Square Kilometer
 Location Really Matters
Average
Daily VMT
per Household
< 25 miles per day
25 - 50 miles per day
50 - 75 miles per day
75 - 100 Miles per day
> 100 miles per day

Average
% of MA % of MA VMT per
Households Total VMT Household
Inner Core 22% 13% 32
Regional Urban
32% 28% 46
Centers
Maturing
19% 22% 63
Suburbs
Developing
25% 34% 75
Suburbs
Rural Towns 2% 2% 79 Source: US Census, MA RMV, MassGIS, MAPC analysis
 Alternative Growth Patterns: Plymouth
Current Trends

MetroFuture

Weighted Average
Legend
Distance, Common
Household Trips
Non-work
<2.5- 2033
960 miles
2.5 - -3.75
2034 3006miles
3.75 -- 4016
3007 5.0 miles
5.0 - -6.0
4017 miles
4760
6.0 - -7.5
4761 miles
6175
7.5 - -97232
6176 miles
 Local Impacts -- Plymouth

Current Trends MetroFuture

New Housing Units,

5,099 29% 3,098 18%
2000 - 2030

VMT (millions annually) 161 34% 88 18%

VMT per HH (annually) 31,500 15% 28,300 3%

mtCO2e (annually) 73,900 34% 40,400 18%

 Alternative Scenarios: Framingham
Current Trends

MetroFuture

Weighted Average
Legend
Distance, Common
Household Trips
Non-work
<2.5- 2033
960 miles
2.5 - -3.75
2034 3006miles
3.75 -- 4016
3007 5.0 miles
5.0 - -6.0
4017 miles
4760
6.0 - -7.5
4761 miles
6175
7.5 - -97232
6176 miles
 Local Impacts -- Framingham

Current Trends MetroFuture

New Housing Units,

4,350 17% 4,354 17%
2000 - 2030

VMT (millions annually) 82 17% 77 16%

VMT per HH (annually) 18,800 2% 17,700 -4%

mtCO2e (annually) 37,600 17% 35,500 16%

 Regional Impacts

Current Trends MetroFuture

New Housing Units,

336,000 21% 337,000 21%
2000 - 2030

VMT (millions annually) 7,473 26% 6,545 23%

VMT per HH (annually) 22,200 24% 19,400 8%

mtCO2e (annually) 3,437,700 26% 3,010,900 23%

 Thank you!
Timothy Reardon
Senior Regional Planner
Metropolitan Area Planning Council
Data Services Department
www.mapc.org
treardon@mapc.org
617-451-2770 x2011