Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters

Core Political Data

06.01.2016

2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be
disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

2016 Ipsos

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted

for

date
May 28-June 1, 2016

For the survey,

a sample of
1,615
Americans

including
759
Democrats

525
Republicans

ages
174
Independents

18+

were interviewed online

The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval.
In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus the following percentage points
2.8

4.1

4.9

8.5

for all adults

Democrats

Republicans

Independents

For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.

 The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by:
Gender
Age
Education
Ethnicity

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls.

All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but
not limited to coverage error and measurement error.
Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but
less than one half of one per cent.
Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.

To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit
http://polling.reuters.com/.

2016 Ipsos

ALL ADULT AMERICANS

Right Direction/Wrong Track

12%
Right Direction
Wrong Track

24%

4% 10%

12%

12%

15%

40%

All Adults

Dont Know

Democrats

Republicans

Independents

48%

64%

86%

73%

Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?

Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in
the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?

2016 Ipsos

ALL ADULT AMERICANS

Main Problem Facing America

In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the US today?

Economy generally
Unemployment / lack of jobs
War / foreign conflicts
Immigration
Terrorism / terrorist attacks
Healthcare
Energy issues
Morality
Education
Crime
Environment
Dont know
Other

2016 Ipsos

Total

Democrat

Republican

Independent

20%
10%
4%
6%
14%
11%
1%
7%
6%
4%
5%
5%
6%

19%
11%
5%
4%
14%
13%
2%
5%
8%
5%
6%
3%
6%

21%
8%
4%
9%
19%
9%
1%
12%
3%
3%
3%
2%
6%

24%
15%
0%
9%
8%
11%
1%
6%
7%
4%
2%
5%
8%

ALL ADULT AMERICANS

Main Problem Facing America

Economy Generally

45%

Unemployment / jobs

40%

Healthcare
Terrorism

35%

Immigration
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

2012

2016 Ipsos

2013

2014

2015

2016

ALL ADULT AMERICANS

Barack Obama
Overall, do you approve or disapprove about the way Barack Obama is handling his job as
President?
Is that strongly (approve/disapprove) or somewhat (approve/disapprove)? (Asked of those who selected approve or disapprove)
Q2b. If you had to choose, do you lean more towards approve or disapprove? (Asked of those who selected dont know)

Strongly approve
Somewhat approve
Lean towards approve
Lean towards disapprove
Somewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove
Not sure
TOTAL APPROVE
TOTAL DISAPPROVE

2016 Ipsos

Total

Democrat

Republican

Independent

27%
20%
4%
2%
10%
32%
5%
52%
44%

45%
31%
5%
2%
8%
8%
2%
80%
18%

9%
7%
2%
1%
13%
67%
1%
19%
81%

14%
18%
9%
3%
11%
38%
7%
42%
51%

0%
JAN 1-7, 2012
JAN 22-28, 2012
FEB 12-18, 2012
MAR 4-MAR 10, 2012
MAR 25-31, 2012
APR 15-21, 2012
MAY 6-12, 2012
MAY 27-JUN 2, 2012
JUN 17-23, 2012
JUL 8-14, 2012
JUL 29-AUG 4, 2012
AUG 19-25, 2012
SEPT 10-15, 2012
SEPT 30-OCT 6, 2012
OCT 21-27, 2012
NOV 11-17, 2012
DEC 2-8, 2012
DEC 23-29, 2012
JAN 8-14, 2013
JAN 29-FEB 4, 2013
FEB 19-25, 2013
MAR 12-18, 2013
APR 2-8, 2013
APR 23-29, 2013
MAY 14-20, 2013
JUN 4-10, 2013
JUN 25-JUL 1, 2013
JUL 16-22, 2013
AUG 6-12, 2013
AUG 27-SEPT 2, 2013
SEPT 17-23, 2013
OCT 8-14, 2013
OCT 29-NOV 4, 2013
NOV 19-25, 2013
DEC 10-16, 2013
DECEMBER 31, 2013
JAN 15-21, 2014
FEB 5-11, 2014
FEB 26-MAR 4, 2014
MAR 19-25, 2014
APR 9-15, 2014
APR 30-MAY 6, 2014
MAY 21-27, 2014
JUN 11-17, 2014
JUL 2-8, 2014
JUL 23-29, 2014
AUG 13-19, 2014
SEPT 3-9, 2014
SEPT 24-30, 2014
OCT 15-21, 2014
NOV 5-11, 2014
NOV 26-DEC 1, 2014
DEC 17-23, 2014
JAN 8-14, 2015
JAN 29-FEB 4, 2015
FEB. 19-25, 2015
MARCH 12-18, 2015
APRIL 2-8, 2015
APRIL 23-29, 2015
MAY 21-27, 2015
JUN 11- JUN 17, 2015
JULY 1-JULY 7, 2015
JULY 22- JULY 28, 2015
AUG 12- AUG 18, 2015
SEPT 3-9, 2015
SEPT 24-30, 2015
OCTOBER 15-21, 2015
NOVEMBER 4-10, 2015
NOVEMBER 25-
DECEMBER 16-22, 2015
JAUNARY 6-12, 2016
JANUARY 29-FEBRUARY
FEBRUARY 20-24, 2016
MARCH 11-15, 2016
APRIL 2-APRIL 6, 2016
APRIL 22-26, 2016
MAY 13-17, 2016

ALL ADULT AMERICANS

Weekly Approval

70%

60%

52%

50%

40%

44%

30%

20%

Total Approve

Total Disapprove

10%

2016 Ipsos

* Starting June 1st, 2016, this slide will reflect data from the same five-day field period as the rest of this report. Previously, this
chart was based off of a seven-day roll-up.
9

REGISTERED VOTERS

Democratic Presidential Primaries

Please think ahead now to the next Presidential election this year, in 2016.
If the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries were being held today, for whom of the following would you vote?
(Asked of registered voters, n=850)

Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Wouldnt vote

2016 Ipsos

Total
(n=850)
44%
44%
11%

Democrat
(n=655)
51%
43%
6%

Independent
(n=129)
20%
51%
30%

10

REGISTERED DEMOCRATIC VOTERS

Democratic Primary Trend

60%

51% Clinton

50%

43% Sanders

40%

30%

20%

10%

WEEK OF
6/1/2016

MAY-16

APR-16

MAR-16

FEB-16

JAN-16

DEC-15

NOV-15

OCT-15

SEP-15

AUG-15

JUL-15

0%

Please think ahead now to the next Presidential election this year, in 2016.
If the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries were being held today, for whom of the following would you vote?
2016 Ipsos

11

REGISTERED VOTERS

General Head-to-Heads

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were as below,
for whom would you vote?
(Asked of registered voters, n=1,332)

Hillary Clinton (Democrat)

Donald Trump (Republican)
Neither / Other
Wouldnt Vote
Dont know / Refused

2016 Ipsos

Total

Democrat

Republican

Independent

43%
34%
13%
4%
6%

72%
9%
11%
4%
4%

9%
73%
11%
2%
4%

19%
34%
22%
8%
17%

12

 2016 Ipsos

6/1/16

5/25/16

5/18/16

5/11/16

5/4/16

4/27/16

4/20/16

4/13/16

4/6/16

3/30/16

3/23/16

3/16/16

3/9/16

3/2/16

2/24/16

2/17/16

2/10/16

2/3/16

1/27/16

1/20/16

1/13/16

1/6/16

REGISTERED VOTERS

General Head-to-Head Trend

60%

50%

43% Clinton

40%

30%

34% Trump

20%

10%

0%

Data collected in 2016

13

 2016 Ipsos

6/1/16

5/25/16

5/18/16

5/11/16

5/4/16

4/27/16

4/20/16

4/13/16

4/6/16

3/30/16

3/23/16

70%
6/1/16

5/25/16

5/18/16

5/11/16

5/4/16

4/27/16

4/20/16

4/13/16

4/6/16

3/30/16

3/23/16

3/16/16

3/9/16

3/2/16

2/24/16

2/17/16

2/10/16

2/3/16

1/27/16

1/20/16

1/13/16

1/6/16

70%

3/16/16

3/9/16

3/2/16

2/24/16

2/17/16

2/10/16

2/3/16

1/27/16

1/20/16

1/13/16

1/6/16

REGISTERED VOTERS

General Election Candidate Favorability

Would you say you are generally favorable or unfavorable towards these public figures?

(Data Collected in 2016)

Donald Trump

60%

60% Unfavorable

50%

40%

40% Favorable

30%

Hillary Clinton

60%

50%

40%

54% Unfavorable
46% Favorable

30%

14

ALL ADULT AMERICANS

Political Identity

17%

Strong Democrat
Moderate Democrat
Lean Democrat
Lean Republican

23%
8%
5%

Moderate Republican

17%
10%

Strong Republican
Independent
None of these
DK

11%
7%
4%
48%

Democrat
Republican
Independent
None/DK

31%
11%
10%

All Adults: n= 1,615

2016 Ipsos

15

How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility

Intervals

The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the
parameter \, i.E., Y|~bin(n,), where n is the size of our sample. In this setting, Y counts the number
of yes, or 1, observed in the sample, so that the sample mean (y ) is a natural estimate of the true
population proportion . This model is often called the likelihood function, and it is a standard concept
in both the bayesian and the classical framework. The bayesian 1 statistics combines both the prior
distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution. The posterior distribution
represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for adjusted after observing the sample
data. In reality, the posterior distribution is ones knowledge base updated using the latest survey
information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior distribution is also a
beta distribution ((/y)~(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters.

Our credibility interval for is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals
represent our belief about which are the most plausible values for given our updated knowledge base.
There are different ways to calculate these intervals based on (/y). Since we want only one measure
of precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is done within the classical framework, we
will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The worst case occurs
when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and y=n/2. Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the
normal distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately:

2016 Ipsos

16

How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility

Intervals
For this poll,
The Bayesian credibility interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for
complex weighting2
Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below.

SAMPLE SIZE

Ipsos does not publish data

for base sizes
(sample sizes) below 100.

2,000
1,500
1,000
750
500
350
200
100

CREDIBILITY
INTERVALS
2.5
2.9
3.5
4.1
5.0
6.0
7.9
11.2

1 Bayesian
2 Kish,

Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 2003
L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.

2016 Ipsos

17

ABOUT IPSOS

GAME CHANGERS

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2016 Ipsos

18