Professional Documents
Culture Documents
PRIVATE BANKING
PHOTO: BLOOMBERG
GROWING BUSINESS
Private banks experienced a solid 2014 with strong net new money inflows and in 2015,
they see opportunity amid volatility and an uncertain macro environment. BY SIOW LI SEN
LIST OF BANKS
ABN AMRO Bank NV
Private Banking
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Credit Suisse AG
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EFG Bank AG
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Contents
Finding the right balance
Supplement Coordinator: Siow Li Sen Sub-editor: Kelvin Lee Cover design: Hyrie Rahmat Advertising sales: Adeline Sim, Jean Koh; 9889 0420
| WHOS WHO
IN PRIVATE BANKING
PITFALLS
The common pitfalls of using investment leverage and derivative solutions include: (i) currency mismatches (ii) term mismatches and (iii) misuse of leverage. These pitfalls impede
the construction of investment portfolios and customer balance sheets that
would be resilient to economic and
market shocks.
Currency mismatches can arise in
many ways. Clients may acquire fixed
assets and investment assets globally. They may use loans to buy properties in a foreign jurisdiction. At the
same time, their operating business-
FUNDAMENTAL TENETS
To successfully help clients navigate
a turbulent investing environment,
private banks need to adhere to the
fundamental tenets of KYC (Know
Your Client), account planning and
prudence in advising clients on balance sheet construction and liability
management, even as they focus on
helping clients generate attractive returns on investment portfolios.
Account planning starts with relationship managers spending considerable time to know and understand
clients risk appetites, investment objectives, life plans and liquidity requirements, so that investment solutions are both relevant and encompassing. Building up trust and increasing the depth of understanding of a
clients global investment and busi-
2015 IS shaping up to be quite a volatile year for financial markets. Oil prices ploughed new lows after losing
more than half of their value since
June 2014; multi-year-low commodity prices, besides excess productive
capacity and sluggish demand, have
driven consumer inflation below 0
per cent in Europe. Meanwhile, political uncertainty has increased in Europe with a far-left party assuming
power in Greece with a mandate to renegotiate the countrys debt.
Despite all this uncertainty, we remain relatively constructive on global
economic growth and asset prices.
The US economy is expected to accelerate in 2015 as the unusually harsh
winter seen in Q1 2014 is unlikely to
be repeated, while a strong job market fuels a consumer demand-driven
expansion.
Europe and Japan are also likely to
post slightly stronger growth on the
back of record low borrowing costs
and weaker currencies. The main
growth concern is in China, which we
expect to decelerate somewhat. However, this means that the authorities
in Beijing are focused on much-needed reforms to turn the worlds second-largest economy from an export
and investment-driven engine to one
powered by domestic consumption.
And that naturally represents a
trade-off between short-term and
long-term growth.
Meanwhile, the decline in oil prices should be a net benefit for the
world economy lower energy costs
boost disposable income of households, increase corporate profits and
keep inflation relatively benign. Low
inflation is allowing central banks to
loosen monetary policy more than a
dozen have cut rates so far this year
alone! Central bank action is helping
to keep borrowing costs low for both
consumers and companies. Loose
monetary policies are, in turn,
investors best friends in relatively
riskier assets such as stocks and higher-yielding bonds.
However, lets be clear its not going to be as easy a ride as the past six
years, during which global stocks
have more than doubled. Indeed,
2015 is likely to see traditional asset
classes generate lower investment returns than in recent years. Bond
yields have discounted a lot of disinflationary pressures, which means
any upside surprise on the
growth/inflation front could undermine bond returns as well. Also, the
first Fed rate hike of the cycle expected sometime in the middle of the year
is normally a period associated with
increased market volatility.
We do not think this is something
to be too concerned about. The Fed is
expected to raise rates only because
the US economy has recovered significantly from the financial crisis of
2008-09. Indeed, US employers hired
more workers in 2014 than in any
HE global shift in
economic growth
towards developing countries has
caused a comparatively rapid increase in ultra-high
net
worth individuals in the Asia-Pacific
and Latin America, including record
assets managed in these regions.
The Asia-Pacific region is expected
to grow twice as fast as the global average in terms of millionaire wealth,
and to achieve the highest level of ultra-high net worth wealth by the end
of the decade.
Although this wealth accumulation attracts private banks from
across the world, many are challenged to scale their traditionally run
operations and meet the growing demand in a profitable way. According
to recent estimates, up to 80 per cent
of millionaire wealth in the Asia-Pacific remains unbanked.
Clearly, this is a unique and lucrative opportunity for private banks
but we need to re-define ourselves to
fit the new era environment, and address the needs of the new era clients
in the worlds most dynamic regions.
These needs have been transformed at their very core by the advancement of the Internet, as well as
smartphone and tablet-based services and seamless online purchasing. Crucially, mobile devices connected to the Web are being increasingly
used to access services and make purchases on the go. Among the most
popular for the wealthy segments of
the population are tablets, the demand for which grew faster in 2013
than for PCs at any point in history.
Six of the largest market places in
the world now belong to this intangible space called the digital market
place. By 2016, the Internet economy
will reach US$4.2 trillion in G-20 countries alone.
DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION
Technology is transforming every
business and the pace is increasing.
The digital world is affecting every aspect of our business landscape the
size of the market, growth potential,
profit generation capability, a new
way of thinking about everything we
do with data.
There is a shift of power taking
place in many industries, where the
power is moving from the service provider to the consumer.
sis, a franchise with tradition and history, far-reaching experience in dealing with sensitive data and most importantly, the capability to manage
peoples assets in a safe, conscious
and well-informed way.
may in fact create friction among family members if not all family members are actively driving the business
or where members may have drastically different visions for the future
of the business.
A far better manner for distribution would be to distribute the controlling stake to the family scion having the primary responsibility of the
| WHOS WHO
IN PRIVATE BANKING
Overcoming key
challenges in family
office investing
By Bassam Salem
FAMILY offices (FOs) are as unique as
the families they serve. Many also
share very similar characteristics that
have made them successful entities
in their own right. However, where
some do not attain the standard they
seek, there are some practical guidelines that can put them on the right
path towards achieving more consistent investment outcomes.
Indian Prime
Minister
Narendra Modi is
laying down the
foundations for a
broad investment
recovery; the
three key reforms
are the land
acquisition law,
labour reform,
and the
introduction of a
national goods
and services tax.
PHOTO: REUTERS
SCALE
One of the most significant mismatches in FO investing is in the allocation
of investment resources. Why? FOs
are called upon to manage diverse
multi-asset portfolios, often with a
minimum of staff, research services
and technology. Demands are more
pronounced when the family head
wishes to make direct investments in
venture capital, private equity or real
estate. Hiring, motivating and retaining top investment talent is a challenge for even the largest global asset
management firms. FOs need to field
a team that can manage to family expectations or consider scaling back
the scope of investing and possibly
look at outsourcing.
SELF-AWARENESS
They come with both opportunities and risks, but key factors for investors to note are Chinese
policy, clarity on US Fed moves and the greenbacks strength. BY SEAN TAYLOR
HE final quarter
of last year witnessed another
bout of underperformance
in
Asian and emerging equity markets versus global markets. Part of this was due to
the strength in the US dollar and the
impact of the fall in the oil price on oil
producing emerging market countries.
As we expected, Asia ex-Japan outperformed Latin America and Eastern
Europe, and Japan unhedged. Although Asia ex-Japan ended up flat in
US dollar terms, there were good returns made in a few of our favourite
markets, namely India, Indonesia and
the Philippines. These returns were
offset by negative returns in Japan unhedged, South Korea and Malaysia.
What last year highlighted again is
that country selection matters in
Asian and emerging markets investing. One of the main reasons for this
is that those countries who have reform agendas are seeing higher returns than those who dont.
One of the key questions that
Asian and emerging market investors
are asking themselves is when is the
underperformance going to stop versus global markets. This underperformance started in October 2010
and has been largely a result of a slowdown in GDP growth, which has led to
earnings downgrades and a fall in return on equity.
Our view is that it is unlikely that
the underperformance is going to be
reversed initially this year. The continuing risk of Fed normalisation, further US dollar strength combined
with the impact of the fall of oil prices
and the medium term headwinds facing China, and lack of an Asian export
growth pick up leave the risks too
high to upgrade the asset class in the
first part of the year.
So we remain neutral versus global
equities. Within the Asian region, we
continue to be positive on India, the
Philippines and China, and still finding less opportunities in South Korea
and Taiwan, and are less positive on
Japan, Australia and Singapore. Within emerging markets, our preference
is still for Asia over Latin America,
and Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) on stronger fundamentals.
Although we do think that at some
point, the underperformance in the
non-Asian areas will provide an opportunity to increase exposure at
some stage later in the year.
The medium term investment
case for India is still reasonably clear.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is laying down the foundations for a broad
investment recovery.
The three key reforms are the land
acquisition law, labour reform, and
the introduction of a national goods
and services tax. Although there is no
sign at the moment that a revival is
happening, the economy appears to
have bottomed and project approvals
have increased.
At the same time, the Reserve
Bank of India is expected to continue
to cut rates as inflation falls, which
should lead to lower lending rates
and a pick up in credit growth to help
er we are more positive that the government will continue to relax policy
to slow down the decline in the economy which should be positive for the
stock markets. The Peoples Bank of
Chinas rate cut in November was followed by increased confidence by local investors as witnessed in a sharp
A-share rally. Fuelled by a huge increase in margin lending, this is leading to more interest in the H-share
market. With a number of rate cuts
and the lowering of the reserve-requirement ratio expected to combat
weaker growth, we remain constructive on interest rate sensitives on a
tactical basis. Medium term, the best
Chinese growth story remains in the
Internet area. We are still wary of
large cap state-owned enterprises.
Finally the Philippines remains, in
our view, the best structural investment story in the smaller markets.
Strong growth from the business process outsourcing sector and increasing remittances from overseas workers, supported by increased government investment going into a presidential election cycle should lead to
another year of positive returns, and
justifying its premium valuation.
So what do we need to upgrade
Asia and emerging markets? A numbers of factors are key here. Chinese
policy leading to a growth pick up in
the second half of the year, more clarity on Fed policy, less US dollar
strength, and most importantly a reversal of earnings downgrades across
the asset class.
The writer is regional investment
head APAC, head of emerging
markets at Deutsche Asset & Wealth
Management
FOs are not immune to behavioural biases in investing, which can be further compounded by the long shadow of one or more influential family
members. One fairly common FO behaviour is optimism bias the mistaken belief that success in one endeavour objectively translates to other areas of life (and investing). FOs serve individuals who have experienced a significant measure of success in life,
and such optimism may cloud investment decision-making. The objective
is to identify and comprehend the
role bias plays in investing. Ideally,
such awareness fosters a culture of
self-awareness and healthy challenging of ideas by investment staff and
key family members.
ADVICE
The complexity of contemporary investing demands the use of both internal and external resources. This is particularly true of FOs that allocate capital to multiple asset classes, diverse
geographies, or a large number of
managers. In a desire to maintain confidentiality or avoid the onslaught of
sales inquiries, FOs may shun all but
a few key relationships. Such insular
behaviour may unwittingly promote
group-think and needlessly limit access to investment ideas, technology
or useful advisers. Resources available to FOs come in many forms; private banks can provide access to useful investment research and offer access to powerful portfolio and risk analytics. Some are able to manage assets on a discretionary or advisory basis. A good initial step in opening up
access to external resources is to determine where you may have information gaps or limited investment technology. The objective is the judicious
use of third-party resources that allows FOs to gather a wide range of investment input, which can better inform investment decision-making,
risk management and financial reporting.
OVER-ALLOCATION
FOs often find themselves over-allocated to a range of funds and fund
types in an effort to achieve portfolio
diversification. It is not uncommon to
observe similar dollar investments in
multiple managers, each of whom invests in broadly similar vintages,
strategies and sectors, and often,
have strong, positive correlations.
One effect of over-allocation is to increase Beta exposure and diminish
the impact that any one managers Alpha contribution will have on performance. The result is often average
or sub-par returns. FOs should aim
for a well-researched thesis, backed
up by sound manager screening, research and ongoing due diligence.
LIQUIDITY MANAGEMENT
The first rule of FO investing is to always ensure you have sufficient portfolio liquidity. Unlike the predictable
flows of foundations and endowments (which often serve as the model of institutional investing), families
can be idiosyncratic and unpredictable when it comes to cash flow. A new
home or aircraft, an unforeseen and
compelling investment opportunity,
or a severe market correction may
precipitate the need for sudden, unexpected liquidity. Illiquidity risk
should be discussed with the family
in order to explicitly identify their expectations. The objective is to prepare a thoughtful family cash flow
budget where possible; and consider
having a credit facility in place that
can easily (and inexpensively) be accessed if the family office needs to
bridge liquidity gaps.
Being able to recognise many of
these challenges within the FO is the
foundation for continued improvement in both process, as well as investment, outcomes. In addition, collaboration with those with proven
success, be it another FO or an established financial institution, can offer
great value in the way of insight and
assistance.
The writer is chief executive officer,
Citi Private Bank, Asia Pacific
I. VOLATILITY ANOMALY
The benchmark Capital Asset Pricing Model
(CAPM) suggests that expected returns are proportional to market risk. For example, to earn
a higher return, one needs to undertake more
risk and vice versa. While the theory is intuitive and elegant, empirical data from 1928 to
2003 has consistently pointed to the contrary: less volatile stocks delivered better risk-adjusted returns than more volatile stocks. This
phenomenon has been shown by various academic studies to be robust across different
ever, investors need to be aware of the specific conditions required for the strategy to be
successful. Moreover, risk and correlations between different asset classes dont usually
stay constant over time and measuring their
changes over time is far from an accurate science so far.
Chinas rapid economic rise and the emergence of large industrial and service sectors have created a wide
range of investment opportunities and instruments. PHOTO: REUTERS
negative outcomes of moderating expansion. Mr Carcy observes: For private equity investors, it could be
good news. Private equity is a costly
and intrusive form of capital. Slower
economic growth improves entry valuations for investors. It also encourages companies to venture and expand
overseas and improve cost controls.
It forces an economic rebalancing by
removing excess production capacity. In the past, companies with access
to cheap credit created overcapacity,
By Raymond Ang
IN THIS diverging world with increased volatility, investing in the current market environment is increasingly challenging. In addition
to geopolitical tensions and falling oil prices,
2014 also saw divergence in central bank policies. Predictions are that 2015 will continue to
see uneven economic growth and varying approaches to government policymaking.
In such an uncertain economic environment, it is more crucial than ever for investors
to recognise the importance of diversifying,
rebalancing and managing risk to get an appropriate balance between risk and return on
their portfolio in line with their long-term financial goals.
So what should investors be looking at in
this divergent market?
Diversification is the key. We believe investors holding a well-diversified portfolio of equities, bonds, and alternatives, stand the best
chance of navigating the diverging world successfully, with comparable low levels of vola-
Lower oil prices are more driven by abundant supply than restraint in
demand and the most visible positive demand shock will be felt in the
US, as consumers will be able to spend more, however Asian countries
with positive net oil imports will also benefit. PHOTO: AFP
By Didier Duret
THERE are two global phenomena
that we believe will influence the behaviour of Asian financial assets: central bank actions and low oil prices.
Monetary policy adjustments could
create moderate volatility for Asian
fixed-income assets and currencies,
while low oil prices will support Asian
equities. Asian equities are also attractive given the variety of local economic and political conditions, which are
constructive for effective diversification.
In 2015, central banks have regained their power to surprise. This is
in contrast to 2014, when central
banks main duty was to provide visibility and guidance on the course of
monetary policy. They were keen to
avoid surprises, keen to increase the
confidence in the financial sphere
and be observably constructive for
the global recovery that was just underway.
In terms of unexpected central
bank actions, 2015 has already seen
the European Central Bank beginning
a one trillion euro (S$1.55 trillion)
open-ended asset purchase programme designed to counter the deflationary forces in the eurozone that
was unimaginable a year ago. A few
days earlier, the Swiss National Bank
had stunned markets by lifting its
floor to allow the Swiss franc to float
freely, which is a return to its traditional independence. The next possible surprise might be the US Federal
Reserve finally lifting its official rates,
currently at 0.25 per cent, an increasingly awkward level as the unemployment rate drifts under the 5 per cent
sate for the slower pace of growth expected in China, although lower energy prices will also support the transition towards a more domestic Chinese economy, going hand in hand
with the goals of policymakers. Increasing trade will also translate into
higher earnings growth for regional
firms in the consumer, IT and industrial sectors. Investing in Asia, however, requires discipline in diversification, and should include emerging
market corporate bonds, such as
those of the best Chinese energy companies.
Asia equity valuations, as measured by the price/earnings ratio
with expected earnings for 2015 in
countries such as China, Singapore,
Indonesia and Thailand are of a similar magnitude equivalent to Europe
(12 times), respectively at 11.1, 12.5,
12.7 and 12.2 and still far below the
US (14.5) or Japanese (16.5) markets.
The world recovery is paved with
macroeconomic risks, such as deflation in Europe, as well as more uncomfortable risks, such as renewed geopolitical tension between the West and
Russia. If new tensions should occur,
Asia will benefit from flows looking
for safe havens. Out of necessity, institutional and private investors are
progressively moving away from a
pure domestic investment base. Investing in Asian assets can be used as
insurance for investors looking for international diversification and Asia investors should be advised to diversify across the region to diffuse the volatility that will continue to be the
dark side of the strong trends that are
underway.
The writer is chief investment
officer, ABN Amro Private Banking
In his view, the twin factors of lower bond yields and oil prices
will gradually produce positive effects for the global economy,
and by extension, the equity market.
We have not taken the full measure of what it is, we will
discover that along the way, he says. Lower bond yields
would reduce borrowing costs for companies, and weaker
oil prices would immediately boost the spending power for
consumers, with the latter having a more direct impact on
consumer spending than the US quantitative easing.
Lower oil price goes straight into the pockets of people,
without going through the credit channels.
MARKET OUTLOOK
The bank is overweight on equities, particularly on the
European and Asian emerging markets, as accelerated
economic growth, lower energy prices and a strengthening US
Clients today like to invest not just in Asia but internationally. For this reason having
global scale and geographic reach to support clients who are looking for such diversity
of asset allocation is necessary for private banks in Asia.
COMPETITIVE EDGE
It is on one such aspect of specialists expertise
of the global economy and markets that ABN
Amro is banking on to draw high net worth
individuals. The bank provides a full range of
banking, financial & estate planning and
investment services.
ABN Amro Private Banking is the leading private
bank in the Netherlands, and also counts among
the top three private banks in countries such as
France and Germany. The bank also ranks
among the top seven in Europe and top fifteen
in Asia.
In its unique European network of strong local
private banks, it offers clients all the advantages
of a modern global bank underpinned by the
values of a traditional private bank.
Hans Hanegraaf
Haneggraaff
CEO,
ABN AMRO Private
Priva
ate Banking,
Bannking,
Asia & Middle East
Ea
ast
Providing Comprehensive
Commercial Banking
Services Through Parent
Company, OCBC Bank
Being part of the OCBC family has its benefits. Bank of
Singapore clients enjoy convenient access to the broad
array of commercial banking, specialist financial and
wealth management services of the OCBC group, ranging
from consumer, corporate, investment and transaction
banking to treasury, insurance, asset management and
stockbroking services.
BAHREN SHAARI
CEO
A good banker
is one who pulls
back the client
when the going is
good because that
is when people tend
to be exuberant
and act excessively.
And in a crisis, when
the markets are
cratering, a banker
has to be grounded
and not add to
the clients fears.
Defining boutique
With a staff of around 300 in the region, BSI is understandably
classified by the financial sector as a boutique bank although for
Deputy CEO Raj Sriram boutique is not about size, its about an
absolute focus on the kind of relationships inherent to traditional
private banking.
Mr. Sriram says BSI clients are increasingly recognising the importance
of tailored advice over a transactional broker relationship and this is
reflected in the fact that more than 90 per cent of all BSI Asias new
business is secured through referrals.
Interestingly, according to PWC research, 75% of Asian clients have
relationships with three or more banks, compared with 37% globally
but, he observes, While theres no argument against spreading risk
within a portfolio, the current Asian tendency to spread it across
multiple banks is unnecessarily complicated.
A future win-win, he believes, must be based on deeper relationships
and greater trust on Asian clients growing acceptance of and
comfort with the roots and traditions of private banking.
Says Mr. Brunner A boutique private bank like BSI has a unique
advantage in this respect because we have a flexibility not found within
larger financial institutions. Ours is a lean decision-making hierarchy,
able to respond quickly to opportunities and to issues affecting
clients.
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Sen Sui
Head of Singapore Branch
Crdit Agricole Private Banking
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Credit Suisse has been part of the Asia Pacific landscape since
1969. It is one of the worlds largest wealth managers for high
net worth and ultra high net worth clients, and is committed to
anchoring the leading position it enjoys globally in Asia Pacific.
Singapore and Hong Kong are its key hubs in this dynamic and
fast-growing region, while Australia and Japan are also home to
Credit Suisses expanding domestic Private Banking franchises.
Benjamin Cavalli
Managing Director,
Market Area Head Southeast Asia and Head of Singapore Location
Private Banking Asia Pacific
Net revenues
Private Banking &
Wealth Management
50%
2014
Best People
Our over 40 years of commitment and dedicated service
to our clients in Asia Pacific have given our Relationship
Managers enviable track records and extensive
experience. Our comprehensive training and
development programs ensure that we are able to deliver
the best to our clients and make Credit Suisse one of the
worlds most admired banks.
50%
Investment Banking
Managing Wealth through the various life stages with Credit Suisse solutions and services
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In Singapore, we are committed to delivering strong, profitable growth, primarily through organic
means. Growth in AUM is absolutely critical in an environment where margins remain compressed,
interest rates remain low, and markets continue to be volatile and difficult to call.
Kong Eng Huat
CEO for EFG Bank Singapore Branch and Southeast Asia
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Delicate discussions
Given the family business aversion to parting
with equity, debt raisings are popular. The bank
can help even when it is not easy to do so in
certain volatile sectors, Mr Evans says.
He cited an example where the bank was able to
link a family up with a cornerstone investor, who
happened to know the family but was not aware
they needed financing. This is a traditional
banking intermediary role. Because we
developed a strong and trusted relationship with
both sides of the transaction, we were able to
have an insight. That makes us a bit different,
he says.
Mr Evans also recalls a time when he helped a
family member who was not interested in the
family business to restructure his holdings. After
a series of very sensitive and diplomatic
discussions, we gently suggested to the patriarch
that one of his key children did not want to be part
of the family business. We set up a family fund
and an investment committee. The structure
allowed people's ownership to change,
crystallised the ownership and monetised it, while
preserving the integrity of the family, he says.
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New solutions
UOB Private Bank Suites, 80 Rafes Place, #07- 01 UOB Plaza 1, Singapore 048624 1800 881 6888
United Overseas Bank Limited Co. Reg. No.193500026Z
uobprivatebank.com.sg
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