Quantitative Methods |NRV

Urbana University
BSG503 MA02

Quantitative Methods |NRV

Forecasting the Future of Cardiovascular Disease in the United
States

It is no secret that one of the leading causes of death in the United

States is cardiovascular disease. For the healthcare system this means
higher expenses and considering that there will be an increase in aging
population, theres a high probability that the national expenditure for
cardiovascular disease will increase. In this paper the American Heart
Association (AHA) uses forecasting to prepare for future cardiovascular
care needs from 2010 to 2030.
We have learned that forecasting can be used as a method or a
technique for estimating many future aspects of a business or other
operation. As we have learned planning for the future is essential and crucial
for any business in order to succeed, but this task is never easy since we are
constantly evolving. Therefore, to take this research as an absolute would be
a mistake but it gives healthcare professionals an idea of how the trend is
moving. In this particular case the American Heart Association talks about
forecasting costs of care for hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart
failure, stroke, and many other cardiovascular diseases. First, the AHA
performed statistics about the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases in the
future and it was concluded that by 2030, 40.5% of the US population is
projected to have some form of CVD (Heidenreich, 2011), I believe it is

Quantitative Methods |NRV

imperative to understand the prevalence of the disease in order to forecast
expenditure.

To forecast the medical costs of cardiovascular diseases the AHA used

information from 2001 to 2005 from Medical Expenditure Panel Survey
(MEPS). They had to analyze annual medical expenditures for people by
medical condition and then they compared it to medical expenses to those
without any condition. In the end they estimated total medical costs of
cardiovascular diseases by multiplying costs per person of each
cardiovascular disease by the projected number of people with the condition.
As a result, it was forecasted that the total direct medical costs of
cardiovascular diseases are projected to triple, according to the report there
will be an increase from $272.5 billion to $818.1 billion. One important factor
to be considered is the aging population. It is very interesting how the aging
population has a great impact in how forecast can look like; for example, risk
factors associated with the aging population causes an increase in the
forecast, so if the risk factors actually increase as rapidly as it has been in
the past, without a doubt that we can expect to have an increase in
cardiovascular disease prevalence and the associated costs.
During class we learned from Ozcan that forecasts have two primary
uses: to help managers plan the system and also to help them plan the use
of the system. I believe that when an organization like the AHA is the one

Quantitative Methods |NRV

that forecasts the future of cardiovascular diseases it is important for the
healthcare providers to understand this in order to plan accordingly and be
able to provide a high quality service. At the same time this forecast tells
providers an idea of what should in relation to range planning; what kind of
services should be offered, what equipment to have, which location
optimizes service delivery to the particular patient population, etc. (2006)
In previous experiences, I have learned that it is important to forecast
in order to plan ahead and it also works to establish an alternating plan if an
unexpected situation arises.

References:
Ozcan, Y. (2006). Quantitative methods in health care management:
Techniques and applications. San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass.
Heidenreich, P. (2011, March 1). The Future of Cardiovascular Diseases.
Retrieved September 3, 2015.