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4, 2012
Extreme sea levels due to storm surge and future sea-level rise (SLR) in the year 2050 are estimated
using ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and extreme value analysis (EVA) based on
long-term sea level records from Hiron Point (HP) on the coast of western Bangladesh. EEMD is an
adaptive method that can detrend the non-linear trend and separate the tidal motions from the original sea
level records to reconstruct storm surge levels at HP. The reconstructed storm surge levels are then
applied to EVA to obtain the extreme storm surges in the target return periods at a 95% confidence
interval (CI). The 30-, 50-, and 100-yr return levels at HP obtained by EVA are 1.59 m, 1.66 m and 1.75
m. The SLR trend obtained from EEMD is 4.46 mm/yr over April 1990-March 2009, which is larger than
the recent altimetry-based global rate of 3.3 0.4 mm/yr over the period from 1993-2007. The resulting
SLR in 2050 is estimated as 0.34 m. Therefore, the extreme sea level in 2050 due to SLR and the storm
surge at a 100-yr return level would be 2.09 m (95% CI from 1.91 m - 2.48 m). The SLR depends not
only on changes in the mass and volume of sea water but also on other factors, such as local subsidence,
river discharge, sediment and the effects of vegetation. The residual non-linear trend of SLR obtained
from EEMD can be regarded as an adaptive sea level after considering those factors and their
nonlinearity.
Key Words : Sea level rise, storm surge, extreme sea level, ensemble empirical mode decomposition, extreme value
analysis, Bangladesh
1. INTRODUCTION
Global mean sea levels have increased steadily
over the past century due to an increase in the global
mean atmospheric temperature (Cazenave and
Llovel, 2009; IPCC, 2007). Continued increases in
mean sea levels are predicted to have catastrophic
impacts on coastal environments around the world
in the near future. Coastal hazards due to flood
events are almost invariably associated with extreme
sea levels by tropical cyclone induced storm surges
(Butler et al., 2007). Therefore, the impacts of
global warming on coastal flood risk depend heavily
events that are more extreme than any that have ever
been observed (Coles, 2001).
In this study, we use the block maxima to fit the
annual maxima of the reconstructed storm surges to
a general extreme value (GEV) distribution for
estimating the return level of storm surges along the
coast of Bangladesh in the year 2050 to assess the
extreme storm surge in the near future. The
distribution parameters were estimated by the
maximum likelihood method. The confidence
interval for the return level is obtained based on the
delta method, which assumes normality for the
return level. The Extremes Toolkit (extRemes)
(Gilleland and Katz, 2011), operated through the
open-source R software, is used to apply the
extreme value analysis method.
(3) Analysis procedure
Figure 3 depicts the data analysis and statistical
modelling procedure used to estimate the extreme
sea level using EEMD and EVA.
First, the original raw observed records are
supplemented with predicted tides to fill in the
missing data to form the reconstructed source data
as described in the previous section 2(1) (Fig. 2).
Second, the reconstructed source data are
separated into two parts based on the observation
interval, from April 1977 to March 1990 and from
April 1990 to March 2009. Then, each part is
individually subjected to EEMD with 50 ensembles.
The EEMD produces a number of IMFs from high
to low frequencies and the residual from the source
data. The statistical significance test is then
performed to ensure the significance of all IMFs.
The IMFs and significance test result are not shown
here due to limited space.
Third, after ensuring the significance levels of
IMFs, the residual is removed from the EEMD
results to detrend each part of the source data. Then,
the IMFs corresponding to astronomical tidal
components are eliminated from the EEMD results.
Therefore, the storm surge levels can be
reconstructed by combining the remaining non-tidal
IMFs (Fig. 4). The EEMD is used as a detrending
and filtering method in this process. In other words,
by applying the EEMD, we can detrend the source
data, and concurrently and automatically filter out
tidal components for the EVA of the storm surge in
the next process.
Fourth, we calculate the annual maxima from
each part of the reconstructed storm surge levels
obtained in the previous process and merge them
into one dataset. Then, these maxima are applied to
the EVA using block maxima and fit to the GEV
distribution to estimate the storm surge return levels
for the target years with confidence intervals.
Fig. 2 (a) Raw data (the original observed sea level), (b) the
reconstructed source data at Hiron Point (HP) generated by
filling in the missing gaps with predicted tides (red) at HP.
3. RESULTS
(1) Storm surge from EEMD
As described, the observed sea level recorded at
4. DISCUSSIONS
Fig. 5 (a) The current non-linear trend and the SLR projection
by 2050 and (b) the storm surge return levels for 1- to 100-yr
return periods at HP. The extreme sea level prediction has to
consider those two results together.
5. CONCLUSIONS
The EEMD method successfully filters out the
tidal variations in the raw sea level records to
reconstruct storm surge levels. The non-linear SLR
trend is identified and obtained from the residue
from EEMD. The annual mean rates of SLR at HP
obtained in this way are 8.04 mm/yr from April
1977 to March 1990 and 4.46 mm/yr from April
1990 to March 2009, larger than the altimetry-based
global average rate of SLR of 3.3 0.4 mm/yr from
1993-2007 (Cazenave and Llovel, 2009). This
analysis suggests an SLR from April 2009 to 2050
of 0.34 m. Then, the reconstructed storm surge
elevations undergo EVA to estimate the extreme
storm surges at HP. The 30-, 50-, and 100-yr return
levels are obtained as 1.59 m, 1.66 m and 1.75 m.
Therefore, the extreme sea level in 2050 due to
future SLR and storm surge with a 100-yr return