Economic Analysis of

Water Content
Prediction Models and
Control Methods for
Natural Gas Systems
in the Niger Delta
Terms of Reference for
Industrial Project
Obatoki, Oluwasetemi
IPS/MSC/PPD/2013/219 Institute of
Petroleum Studies,
University of Port Harcourt, NIGERIA

PETROLEUM ENGINEERING INDUSTRIAL PROJECT - 2014

PROPOSAL/TERMS OF REFERENCE (TOR)
PROJECT TITLE

Economic
Analysis
of
Water
Content
Prediction Models and Control Methods in
Natural Gas Systems in the Niger Delta

SUPERVISOR
PROJECT TYPE

Prof. Wumi Iledare

PROJECT DESCRIPTION AND

PROBLEM DEFINITION

This project evaluates conventional, dated and

more recent, hydrate prediction models and tries
to introduce a simplistic economic model that
guides managers in making economically
profitable decisions.
Although Gas Hydrates have been touted as the
worlds next source for energy, they still pose a
serious challenge to flow assurance in petroleum
production operations. There are a myriad of
factors that influence the formation of hydrates.
These include: Low Temperatures, High Pressures,
The presence of Liquid H2o (water). All of these
are present in most gas flow systems.
Research by various authors has shown that the
area of maximum interest in predicting hydrate
formation is the Water Content present in the Gas
Mcleod, W. R., 1978 and Bahadori A. et al, 2010.
This study aims to achieve two (3) things.
Develop a simplistic model to predict
water content in natural gas through
the use of statistical tools
Use existing thermodynamic models
to predict water content of natural
gas
streams
by
varying
other
parameters
Compare the performance of these
predictive methods with those already
existing and in different forms of
application in a typical production system
Develop an economic model based on
the Net Present Value method that
assesses the profitability of an earlywarning system compared to a
reactive solution
This will give administrators more confidence in
decision taking as the cost implications of their
actions will be better understood.

BUSINESS OBJECTIVES

TECHNICAL OBJECTIVES

POTENTIAL BENEFITS

BACKGROUND

To reduce the cost of corrective hydrate

treatment in flow assurance.
To improve revenue from wells by
optimizing production and flow assurance
and reducing frequent shutdowns when the
right solution is applied.
Developing a model using a statistical tool,
preferably Artificial Neural Networks (ANN),
to predict water content in Sour Gases and
comparing its performance to existing
predictive tools already available
Proposing an optimized economic solution
to the hydrates problem by analyzing
different predictive and control methods,
and the latest technology used in the
Industry
Decision makers will get an economic
model that determines the best hydrate
prediction model for use in flow assurance
operations.
The project will save users the initial costs
that will be borne by insufficient
information of the gas system and alleviate
the cost burden brought about by
excessive application of corrective and/or
preventive agents, for example in the use
of Chemical Inhibitors

The drive to predict more accurately is an integral

part of the Petroleum Engineering process. This is
accentuated by the huge costs and risks usually
involved with decision making. Over the years,
several models have been proffered to deal with
flow assurance problems. After all, the continuous
supply of Hydrocarbons to Market represents the
biggest concern to producing companies as
delays in product delivery due to foreseeable
shutdowns are often costly, first to reputations
and to continuing business partnerships.
These predictive models have also been
combined with interesting scientific research into
better Pipe Insulation, better flow line heating
procedures, excellent inhibitor distribution
systems and even radical ideas such as the

installation of Gas dehydration units at subsea

wellheads. However, all these ideas depend on
clever predictive tools to work. Prevention rather
than reactive control is emphasized.
There is no fail safe system for hydrate
prevention and control. Each presents its unique
challenges. Quantifying Inhibitor use and success
rates of its application has been described as
witchcraft by some researchers Mcleod et al,
1978 as present challenges in recovering them
from the flowing gas stream for the case of
Methanol and absorption in crudes in the case of
Glycol.
Heating the flow lines, which is a means of
control, leads to additional Power costs. The use
of extra insulation e.g. Pipe in Pipe Technology,
has higher up-front costs and may prove
economic in the long term, but it doesnt solve
the prediction problem.
This work aims to fit all these aspects together,
first by positing an improvement to the current
methods of prediction and then by evaluating
two(2) things:
The effect an improved prediction process
will have in terms of reduced costs for a
producing company
The combined methods of control and
prevention that will yield the highest profits
at the lowest additional costs

PROJECT SCOPE

The work shall:

Review Hydrate Prediction experiments as
conducted by Notz P.K. et al (2000) and
Remery J. et al (2000)
o These researchers made use of Gulf
of Mexico data
Examine the work of Bahadori A. et al,
2010, SPE 130135 on a Novel Tool for an
Accurate Estimation of Saturated Water
Content in Sour Natural Gas
Consider the accuracy of water content
prediction in Natural Gas streams
Perform Sensitivity Analysis on how water

EXISTING DATA

KEY REFERENCES

WORK SCHEDULE
COST
KEY DELIVERABLE(S)

content prediction affects Production and

Profits
Review the various Hydrate Prediction
solutions available and their respective
costs
Design a model to help determine the most
economically viable solution based on field
parameters
Evaluate
and
proffer
solution
to
uncertainties in the Key factors that affect
profitability
Notz P.K. et al predictions with field data;
Bahadori A. et al; Niger Delta Offshore Production
Data if attainable
Bahadori A. et al, SPE 130135, Novel
Predictive Tool for an Accurate Estimation
of Saturated Water Content in Sour Natural
Gases, 2010
Paez, J.E., SPE 67322, 2001
Osokogwu U., Ajienka J.A., 2012, SPE
163016
Mcleod R.W., 1978, SPE 8137
Hammerschidt E.G., 1934, Formation of
Gas Hydrates in Natural Gas Transmission
Lines, Ind. Eng. CHem. Vol 26
McKetta J.J., 1958
To be discussed with Supervisor
Detailed costing to be evaluated as work
progresses
Industrial Project (Thesis) Report/Monograph.
SPE Paper.
Power Point Presentation.