Asian Business Dialogue on Corporate Governance

2012

The Energy Sector in ASEAN:

Opportunities and Challenges
Khun Surong Bulakul

1ACE-LIC

Outline

ASEAN Energy Overview

ASEAN Energy Consumption Efficiency
Opportunities and challenges in ASEAN
ASEAN Collaboration

ASEAN is growing fast

ASEAN countries have potential to grow with a corresponding world economic market
ASEAN population accounts for 9% of the world, but
contribute only 1.8% to the world GDP. However,

there is room for improving the economic growth in

ASEAN countries.
Land Area
(sq. km)

Population
(Million)

GDP 2010

(Billion US$)

Share of
World
GDP
(% )

World

129,611,322

6,697

63,049

100.0

US

9,161,920

304

14,582

23.2

EU

2,509,810

326

12,175

19.3

44,579,000

3,998

19,501

30.9

- China

9,327,489

1,325

5,879

9.3

- India

2,973,190

1,140

1,729

2.7

510,890

67

318

0.5

4,326,057

574

1,159

1.8

ASEAN + 3 (China, Korea, Japan)

14,114,966

2,075

13,550

21.5

ASEAN + 6 (China, Korea, Japan, India, Australia,

New Zealand)

29,364,223

3,814

16,330

25.9

Asia

- Thailand
ASEAN (10)

Source: World Bank

Note: ASEAN (10): Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam

ASEAN is growing fast

ASEAN is one of the fastest growing region in the world
2009

2010

2011
(E)

2012
(F)

World

-0.5

5.1

4.3

4.5

Advanced
Economies

-3.4

3.0

2.2

2.6

- US

-2.6

2.9

2.5

2.7

- EU

-4.1

1.8

2.0

2.1

- Japan

-6.3

4.0

-0.7

2.9

Developing Asia

7.2

9.6

8.4

8.4

- China

9.2

10.3

9.6

9.5

-2.5

- India

6.8

10.4

8.2

7.8

-4.5

ASEAN

1.1

7.9

5.3

5.7

GDP Growth (%yoy)

GDP (%)

13.5
11.5

China

9.5
7.5
5.5

4.6

5.2

5.3

ASEAN

5.1
4.3

3.5

4.5

2.8

1.5

World
-0.5

-0.5

-6.5
2005

2006

Source:
Jun
2011
SourceIMF
: IMF
and
ADB

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011E

2012F

Energy Balance in ASEAN

ASEAN will require increasing energy supply to keep up with its rapid pace of
economic expansion
Mtoe
ASEAN Final Energy Consumption
1200

1000

COAL

800

OIL
600
NATURAL GAS
400

ELECTRICCITY
200
OTHERS
0
1990

2007

2012

2020(BAU)

2030(BAU)

Energy Balance in ASEAN

Petroleum Reserve in ASEAN
Gas reserves
(TCF)

Hydropower
potential capacity
(GW)

Coal proved
reserves
(Million tons)

Oil proved
reserves
(Billions bbl)

121

75

5,529

4.0

23

503

Malaysia

95

20

4.0

Myanmar

35-901,2

40

270-4802

0.1

Philippines

13

316

0.1

Thailand

13

1,239

0.4

Vietnam

22

150

0.6

Indonesia
Laos

Energy Balance in ASEAN

Most ASEAN countries are net oil importer (2010)
Ktoe
65,000

61,356

55,000

45,000

35,000

29,952
25,000
17,994
15,352

15,000

5,000

500
Brunei

Malaysia

-5,000 Darussalam
-4,065
-8,302
-15,000
Source : Wood Makenzie

Laos

1,150

1,195

Cambodia Myanmar

3,229
Vietnam Philippines Indonesia

Thailand

8 out of 10 ASEAN countries depend on imported crude

Singapore

Energy Balance in ASEAN

While few countries are gas importer (2010)
Ktoe
10,000
4,810

7,610

Indonesia

Malaysia

-10,000

Brunei
Darussalam
-8,515

Myanmar

Thailand

Singapore

-7,514

-20,000

-26,093

-30,000

-40,000

-37,896

Thailand & Singapore use imported gas from their neighboring countries
but LNG will become alternative choice in the near future
-50,000
Source : Wood Makenzie

Energy Balance in ASEAN

Most ASEAN countries are highly dependent on oil import more than ever
Ktoe
315,786

320,000
290,000

Oil

261,227

260,000
230,000

203,859

200,000

154,126

170,000

140,000

118,360

110,000
74,539

80,000
50,000

39,706

20,000
-10,000

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

-40,000

-70,000

-56,482

-100,000

Source : Wood Makenzie

-58,570

-67,598

-68,219

-83,093

-64,879

2030
-24,858
Gas

Energy Balance in ASEAN

Oil Consumption nearly double in 2030 but oil production keep declining
Ktoe
400,000

350,000

Oil consumption
Oil production

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0
2000

Source: Wood Mckenzie

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

10

Energy Balance in ASEAN

Gas consumption also continue to increase as well as gas production in the near
future (2020)
Ktoe
300,000

Gas consumption
Gas production

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0
2000

Source: Wood Mckenzie

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

11

Energy Balance in ASEAN

Continental ASEAN Concept
Energy Deficit
Energy Surplus

Source : Dr. Pailin Chuchotaworn, PTT CEO.

Outline

ASEAN Energy Overview

ASEAN Energy Consumption Efficiency
Opportunities and challenges in ASEAN
ASEAN Collaboration

ASEAN Energy Intensity vs World in 2008

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

World

5000

0
Brunei

Singapore Thailand

Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia Philippines

Laos

Cambodia

Burma
(Myanmar)

Total Primary Energy Consumption per Dollar of GDP (Btu per Year 2005 U.S. Dollars (Purchasing Power Parities))
Source : EIA

14

Carbon Intensity using Purchasing Power Parities

Burma (Myanmar)

0.05594

Laos

0.07365

Cambodia

0.08839

Philippines

0.24403

Malaysia

0.41968

Vietnam

0.4202

Indonesia

0.47324

Thailand

0.5172

Singapore

0.69536

Brunei

0.98979

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

(Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide per Thousand Year 2005U.S. Dollars)

Source : EIA

1.2

Encouraging the efficient use of energy

Bio Fuel
Efficient PP 3%
5%
CCS 10%
Nuclear 10%
Renewable
20%

Remove fossil fuel

subsidies

Energy efficiency
52%

Establish clear,
consistent standards

source: IEA, IIEC

Improving energy efficiency is the best way to

ensure energy security, limit greenhouse gas
emissions, and insulate economies from the
volatility of energy prices

Educate & create

awareness
16

Environmental Management: License to Operate

GREEN

CG

CSR

17

Promote renewable energy in the region

Biomass

Thailand
Indonesia

Wind Power

Go Green

Vietnam

Small hydro
Laos

Solar
All country in ASEAN

Biofuel
Indonesia

Malaysia

Thailand

Laos

Geothermal
Philippines

18

Outline

ASEAN Energy Overview

ASEAN Energy Consumption Efficiency
Opportunities and challenges in ASEAN
ASEAN Collaboration

Challenges vs. Opportunities

Laos
Vietnam
Limited Petroleum
Resource
Infrastructure

Hydro Power
Oil Retail Business

Energy accessibility
Infrastructure

Coal Business
LPG Business
Petrochemical Business

Cambodia
High dependency on Oil Retail Business
imported energy
OCA

Myanmar
Political
E&P Business
Insatiability
Hydro Power
Infrastructure
Logistics, ports &
Aim to use energy pipelines
as country
economy driver

Philippines
Geography
Limited Petroleum
Resource

Oil Retail
Business

Malaysia

Energy Subsidies Refinery &

Green Energy
Petrochemical Business
LPG Business

Singapore
High dependency on
imported energy

Trading

Brunei

Indonesia
Energy Subsidies
Green Energy

Coal Business
Palm Oil Plantation
E&P Business

Energy Efficiency

Coal Business

Thailand Energy Security

21

Outline

ASEAN Energy Overview

ASEAN Energy Consumption Efficiency
Opportunities and challenges in ASEAN
ASEAN Collaboration

ASEAN Must Accept Market Economy

Increase competitiveness

Depart from protectionism & subsidies

From the World

competitiveness
scoreboard 2011
Financial sector

3rd Singapore
16th Malaysia
27th Thailand
37th Indonesia
41st Philippines

Increase awareness

Agricultural
sector
Energy sector

Telecommunication
sector

Commercial sector

Entrepreneurship

AEC

23

Enhancing the security of petroleum supply for ASEAN

members

ASEAN Power Grid

Trans ASEAN Gas Pipeline

Regional Joint Stockpiling

24

Summary
ASEAN is one of the fastest growing region in the world.
Most of ASEAN counties highly depend on oil import while
most countries are gas exporter.

Lot of room for improvement on energy efficiency in ASEAN.

Environment concern on carbon credit, Go Green Strategy
and License to operate
Collaboration : Increase in competitiveness, awareness and
entrepreneurship and depart from protectionism and subsidies

25

Thank You