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YEAR

N
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44

DEPOSITS NAVE
ERROR
MAD
MSE
0.25
0.24
0.25
-0.010
0.010
0.000
0.24
0.24
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.26
0.24
0.020
0.020
0.000
0.25
0.26
-0.010
0.010
0.000
0.3
0.25
0.050
0.050
0.002
0.31
0.3
0.010
0.010
0.000
0.32
0.31
0.010
0.010
0.000
0.24
0.32
-0.080
0.080
0.006
0.26
0.24
0.020
0.020
0.000
0.25
0.26
-0.010
0.010
0.000
0.33
0.25
0.080
0.080
0.006
0.5
0.33
0.170
0.170
0.029
0.95
0.5
0.450
0.450
0.203
1.7
0.95
0.750
0.750
0.563
2.3
1.7
0.600
0.600
0.360
2.8
2.3
0.500
0.500
0.250
2.8
2.8
0.000
0.000
0.000
2.7
2.8
-0.100
0.100
0.010
3.9
2.7
1.200
1.200
1.440
4.9
3.9
1.000
1.000
1.000
5.3
4.9
0.400
0.400
0.160
6.2
5.3
0.900
0.900
0.810
4.1
6.2
-2.100
2.100
4.410
4.5
4.1
0.400
0.400
0.160
6.1
4.5
1.600
1.600
2.560
7.7
6.1
1.600
1.600
2.560
10.1
7.7
2.400
2.400
5.760
15.2
10.1
5.100
5.100
26.010
18.1
15.2
2.900
2.900
8.410
24.1
18.1
6.000
6.000
36.000
25.6
24.1
1.500
1.500
2.250
30.3
25.6
4.700
4.700
22.090
36
30.3
5.700
5.700
32.490
31.1
36
-4.900
4.900
24.010
31.7
31.1
0.600
0.600
0.360
38.5
31.7
6.800
6.800
46.240
47.9
38.5
9.400
9.400
88.360
49.1
47.9
1.200
1.200
1.440
55.8
49.1
6.700
6.700
44.890
70.1
55.8
14.300
14.300
204.490
70.9
70.1
0.800
0.800
0.640
79.1
70.9
8.200
8.200
67.240
94
79.1
14.900
14.900
222.010

2003

45

94 2.180233

2.516

20.171917

MAPE
4.17
0.00
7.69
4.00
16.67
3.23
3.13
33.33
7.69
4.00
24.24
34.00
47.37
44.12
26.09
17.86
0.00
3.70
30.77
20.41
7.55
14.52
51.22
8.89
26.23
20.78
23.76
33.55
16.02
24.90
5.86
15.51
15.83
15.76
1.89
17.66
19.62
2.44
12.01
20.40
1.13
10.37
15.85

BIAS
0.010
0.000
0.020
-0.010
0.050
0.010
0.010
-0.080
0.020
-0.010
0.080
0.170
0.450
0.750
0.600
0.500
0.000
-0.100
1.200
1.000
0.400
0.900
-2.100
0.400
1.600
1.600
2.400
5.100
2.900
6.000
1.500
4.700
5.700
-4.900
0.600
6.800
9.400
1.200
6.700
14.300
0.800
8.200
14.900

16.60943

2.181

YEAR
N
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44

DEPOSITS 3MA
ERROR
MAD
0.25
0.24
0.24
0.26
0.243
0.017
0.017
0.25
0.247
0.003
0.003
0.3
0.250
0.050
0.050
0.31
0.270
0.040
0.040
0.32
0.287
0.033
0.033
0.24
0.310
-0.070
0.070
0.26
0.290
-0.030
0.030
0.25
0.273
-0.023
0.023
0.33
0.250
0.080
0.080
0.5
0.280
0.220
0.220
0.95
0.360
0.590
0.590
1.7
0.593
1.107
1.107
2.3
1.050
1.250
1.250
2.8
1.650
1.150
1.150
2.8
2.267
0.533
0.533
2.7
2.633
0.067
0.067
3.9
2.767
1.133
1.133
4.9
3.133
1.767
1.767
5.3
3.833
1.467
1.467
6.2
4.700
1.500
1.500
4.1
5.467
-1.367
1.367
4.5
5.200
-0.700
0.700
6.1
4.933
1.167
1.167
7.7
4.900
2.800
2.800
10.1
6.100
4.000
4.000
15.2
7.967
7.233
7.233
18.1
11.000
7.100
7.100
24.1
14.467
9.633
9.633
25.6
19.133
6.467
6.467
30.3
22.600
7.700
7.700
36
26.667
9.333
9.333
31.1
30.633
0.467
0.467
31.7
32.467
-0.767
0.767
38.5
32.933
5.567
5.567
47.9
33.767
14.133
14.133
49.1
39.367
9.733
9.733
55.8
45.167
10.633
10.633
70.1
50.933
19.167
19.167
70.9
58.333
12.567
12.567
79.1
65.600
13.500
13.500
94
73.367
20.633
20.633

MSE

0.000278
0.000011
0.002500
0.001600
0.001111
0.004900
0.000900
0.000544
0.006400
0.048400
0.348100
1.224711
1.562500
1.322500
0.284444
0.004444
1.284444
3.121111
2.151111
2.250000
1.867778
0.490000
1.361111
7.840000
16.000000
52.321111
50.410000
92.801111
41.817778
59.290000
87.111111
0.217778
0.587778
30.987778
199.751111
94.737778
113.067778
367.361111
157.921111
182.250000
425.734444

2003

45

81.333 4.143496

4.288 49.938667

MAPE

6.410256
1.333333
16.66667
12.90323
10.41667
29.16667
11.53846
9.333333
24.24242
44
62.10526
65.09804
54.34783
41.07143
19.04762
2.469136
29.05983
36.05442
27.67296
24.19355
33.33333
15.55556
19.12568
36.36364
39.60396
47.58772
39.22652
39.97234
25.26042
25.41254
25.92593
1.500536
2.418507
14.45887
29.50592
19.82349
19.05615
27.34189
17.72449
17.067
21.95035

BIAS

0.017
0.003
0.050
0.040
0.033
-0.070
-0.030
-0.023
0.080
0.220
0.590
1.107
1.250
1.150
0.533
0.067
1.133
1.767
1.467
1.500
-1.367
-0.700
1.167
2.800
4.000
7.233
7.100
9.633
6.467
7.700
9.333
0.467
-0.767
5.567
14.133
9.733
10.633
19.167
12.567
13.500
20.633

25.49624

4.143

YEAR
N
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44

DEPOSITS 3MA
ERROR
MAD
MSE
MAPE
0.25
0.24
0.24
0.26
0.25
0.3
0.248
0.052
0.052
0.003
17.333
0.31
0.258
0.052
0.052
0.003
16.774
0.32
0.272
0.048
0.048
0.002
15.000
0.24
0.288
-0.048
0.048
0.002
20.000
0.26
0.284
-0.024
0.024
0.001
9.231
0.25
0.286
-0.036
0.036
0.001
14.400
0.33
0.276
0.054
0.054
0.003
16.364
0.5
0.280
0.220
0.220
0.048
44.000
0.95
0.316
0.634
0.634
0.402
66.737
1.7
0.458
1.242
1.242
1.543
73.059
2.3
0.746
1.554
1.554
2.415
67.565
2.8
1.156
1.644
1.644
2.703
58.714
2.8
1.650
1.150
1.150
1.323
41.071
2.7
2.110
0.590
0.590
0.348
21.852
3.9
2.460
1.440
1.440
2.074
36.923
4.9
2.900
2.000
2.000
4.000
40.816
5.3
3.420
1.880
1.880
3.534
35.472
6.2
3.920
2.280
2.280
5.198
36.774
4.1
4.600
-0.500
0.500
0.250
12.195
4.5
4.880
-0.380
0.380
0.144
8.444
6.1
5.000
1.100
1.100
1.210
18.033
7.7
5.240
2.460
2.460
6.052
31.948
10.1
5.720
4.380
4.380
19.184
43.366
15.2
6.500
8.700
8.700
75.690
57.237
18.1
8.720
9.380
9.380
87.984
51.823
24.1
11.440
12.660
12.660
160.276
52.531
25.6
15.040
10.560
10.560
111.514
41.250
30.3
18.620
11.680
11.680
136.422
38.548
36
22.660
13.340
13.340
177.956
37.056
31.1
26.820
4.280
4.280
18.318
13.762
31.7
29.420
2.280
2.280
5.198
7.192
38.5
30.940
7.560
7.560
57.154
19.636
47.9
33.520
14.380
14.380
206.784
30.021
49.1
37.040
12.060
12.060
145.444
24.562
55.8
39.660
16.140
16.140
260.500
28.925
70.1
44.600
25.500
25.500
650.250
36.377
70.9
52.280
18.620
18.620
346.704
26.262
79.1
58.760
20.340
20.340
413.716
25.714
94
65.000
29.000
29.000
841.000
30.851

2003

45

73.980 6.109538

6.160 98.56190 32.50820

BIAS

0.052
0.052
0.048
-0.048
-0.024
-0.036
0.054
0.220
0.634
1.242
1.554
1.644
1.150
0.590
1.440
2.000
1.880
2.280
-0.500
-0.380
1.100
2.460
4.380
8.700
9.380
12.660
10.560
11.680
13.340
4.280
2.280
7.560
14.380
12.060
16.140
25.500
18.620
20.340
29.000

6.110

YEAR
N
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44

DEPOSITS FORECAST GSP


0.25
0.24
0.2500
0.24
0.2470
0.26
0.2449
0.25
0.2494
0.3
0.2496
0.31
0.2647
0.32
0.2783
0.24
0.2908
0.26
0.2756
0.25
0.2709
0.33
0.2646
0.5
0.2842
0.95
0.3490
1.7
0.5293
2.3
0.8805
2.8
1.3063
2.8
1.7544
2.7
2.0681
3.9
2.2577
4.9
2.7504
5.3
3.3953
6.2
3.9667
4.1
4.6367
4.5
4.4757
6.1
4.4830
7.7
4.9681
10.1
5.7877
15.2
7.0814
18.1
9.5170
24.1
12.0919
25.6
15.6943
30.3
18.6660
36
22.1562
31.1
26.3093
31.7
27.7465
38.5
28.9326
47.9
31.8028
49.1
36.6320
55.8
40.3724
70.1
45.0007
70.9
52.5305
79.1
58.0413
94
64.3589

=
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.7
0.9
1
1.4
1.7
1.3
1.2
1.1
0.9
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.6
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.9
1.9
2.3
2.5
2.8
2.9
3.4
3.8
4.1
4
4
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.7
4.1
4.1
4
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.7
5

ERROR
0.3
-0.007
0.015
0.001
0.050
0.045
0.042
-0.051
-0.016
-0.021
0.065
0.216
0.601
1.171
1.420
1.494
1.046
0.632
1.642
2.150
1.905
2.233
-0.537
0.024
1.617
2.732
4.312
8.119
8.583
12.008
9.906
11.634
13.844
4.791
3.953
9.567
16.097
12.468
15.428
25.099
18.370
21.059
29.641

2003

45

73.2512

5.793988

MAD

0.007
0.015
0.001
0.050
0.045
0.042
0.051
0.016
0.021
0.065
0.216
0.601
1.171
1.420
1.494
1.046
0.632
1.642
2.150
1.905
2.233
0.537
0.024
1.617
2.732
4.312
8.119
8.583
12.008
9.906
11.634
13.844
4.791
3.953
9.567
16.097
12.468
15.428
25.099
18.370
21.059
29.641

MSE

0.000
0.000
0.000
0.003
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.000
0.000
0.004
0.047
0.361
1.371
2.015
2.231
1.093
0.399
2.697
4.621
3.628
4.988
0.288
0.001
2.615
7.463
18.596
65.912
73.669
144.195
98.123
135.350
191.651
22.950
15.630
91.536
259.120
155.452
238.012
629.977
337.440
443.468
878.593

MAPE

2.92
5.81
0.23
16.80
14.61
13.03
21.17
5.99
8.36
19.81
43.15
63.27
68.87
61.72
53.34
37.34
23.40
42.11
43.87
35.94
36.02
13.09
0.54
26.51
35.48
42.70
53.41
47.42
49.83
38.69
38.40
38.45
15.40
12.47
24.85
33.61
25.39
27.65
35.81
25.91
26.62
31.53

BIAS

-0.007
0.015
0.001
0.050
0.045
0.042
-0.051
-0.016
-0.021
0.065
0.216
0.601
1.171
1.420
1.494
1.046
0.632
1.642
2.150
1.905
2.233
-0.537
0.024
1.617
2.732
4.312
8.119
8.583
12.008
9.906
11.634
13.844
4.791
3.953
9.567
16.097
12.468
15.428
25.099
18.370
21.059
29.641

5.824 93.50009 30.03597

5.794

YEAR
N
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44

DEPOSITS FORECASTGSP
0.25
0.25
0.24
0.2500
0.24
0.2450
0.26
0.2425
0.25
0.2513
0.3
0.2506
0.31
0.2753
0.32
0.2927
0.24
0.3063
0.26
0.2732
0.25
0.2666
0.33
0.2583
0.5
0.2941
0.95
0.3971
1.7
0.6735
2.3
1.1868
2.8
1.7434
2.8
2.2717
2.7
2.5358
3.9
2.6179
4.9
3.2590
5.3
4.0795
6.2
4.6897
4.1
5.4449
4.5
4.7724
6.1
4.6362
7.7
5.3681
10.1
6.5341
15.2
8.3170
18.1
11.7585
24.1
14.9293
25.6
19.5146
30.3
22.5573
36
26.4287
31.1
31.2143
31.7
31.1572
38.5
31.4286
47.9
34.9643
49.1
41.4321
55.8
45.2661
70.1
50.5330
70.9
60.3165
79.1
65.6083
94
72.3541

=
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.7
0.9
1
1.4
1.7
1.3
1.2
1.1
0.9
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.6
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.9
1.9
2.3
2.5
2.8
2.9
3.4
3.8
4.1
4
4
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.7
4.1
4.1
4
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.7
5

ERROR
0.5
-0.005
0.018
-0.001
0.049
0.035
0.027
-0.066
-0.013
-0.017
0.072
0.206
0.553
1.026
1.113
1.057
0.528
0.164
1.282
1.641
1.221
1.510
-1.345
-0.272
1.464
2.332
3.566
6.883
6.341
9.171
6.085
7.743
9.571
-0.114
0.543
7.071
12.936
7.668
10.534
19.567
10.583
13.492
21.646

2003

45

83.1771

3.857305

MAD

0.005
0.018
0.001
0.049
0.035
0.027
0.066
0.013
0.017
0.072
0.206
0.553
1.026
1.113
1.057
0.528
0.164
1.282
1.641
1.221
1.510
1.345
0.272
1.464
2.332
3.566
6.883
6.341
9.171
6.085
7.743
9.571
0.114
0.543
7.071
12.936
7.668
10.534
19.567
10.583
13.492
21.646

MSE

0.0000
0.0003
0.0000
0.0024
0.0012
0.0007
0.0044
0.0002
0.0003
0.0051
0.0424
0.3057
1.0536
1.2393
1.1164
0.2791
0.0269
1.6437
2.6930
1.4897
2.2809
1.8087
0.0742
2.1427
5.4377
12.7160
47.3753
40.2144
84.1025
37.0317
59.9492
91.6106
0.0131
0.2947
50.0050
167.3326
58.7960
110.9636
382.8661
112.0101
182.0271
468.5437

MAPE

2.08
6.73
0.50
16.46
11.19
8.54
27.64
5.06
6.63
21.73
41.17
58.20
60.38
48.40
37.74
18.87
6.08
32.87
33.49
23.03
24.36
32.80
6.05
24.00
30.28
35.31
45.28
35.04
38.05
23.77
25.55
26.59
0.37
1.71
18.37
27.01
15.62
18.88
27.91
14.93
17.06
23.03

BIAS

-0.005
0.018
-0.001
0.049
0.035
0.027
-0.066
-0.013
-0.017
0.072
0.206
0.553
1.026
1.113
1.057
0.528
0.164
1.282
1.641
1.221
1.510
-1.345
-0.272
1.464
2.332
3.566
6.883
6.341
9.171
6.085
7.743
9.571
-0.114
0.543
7.071
12.936
7.668
10.534
19.567
10.583
13.492
21.646

4.036 47.01220 23.30379

3.949

YEAR
N
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44

DEPOSITS
0.25
0.24
0.24
0.26
0.25
0.3
0.31
0.32
0.24
0.26
0.25
0.33
0.5
0.95
1.7
2.3
2.8
2.8
2.7
3.9
4.9
5.3
6.2
4.1
4.5
6.1
7.7
10.1
15.2
18.1
24.1
25.6
30.3
36
31.1
31.7
38.5
47.9
49.1
55.8
70.1
70.9
79.1
94

GSP
0.1750
0.2205
0.2342
0.2522
0.2507
0.2852
0.3026
0.3148
0.2624
0.2607
0.2532
0.3070
0.4421
0.7976
1.4293
2.0388
2.5716
2.7315
2.7094
3.5428
4.4929
5.0579
5.8574
4.6272
4.5382
5.6314
7.0794
9.1938
13.3981
16.6894
21.8768
24.4831
28.5549
33.7665
31.8999
31.7600
36.4780
44.4734
47.7120
53.3736
65.0821
69.1546
76.1164

0.4
0.4
0.5
0.7
0.9
1
1.4
1.7
1.3
1.2
1.1
0.9
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.6
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.9
1.9
2.3
2.5
2.8
2.9
3.4
3.8
4.1
4
4
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.7
4.1
4.1
4
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.7
5

ERROR
0.7
0.020
0.026
-0.002
0.049
0.025
0.017
-0.075
-0.002
-0.011
0.077
0.193
0.508
0.902
0.871
0.761
0.228
-0.031
1.191
1.357
0.807
1.142
-1.757
-0.127
1.562
2.069
3.021
6.006
4.702
7.411
3.723
5.817
7.445
-2.666
-0.200
6.740
11.422
4.627
8.088
16.726
5.818
9.945
17.884

2003

45

88.6349

3.007293

MAD

0.020
0.026
0.002
0.049
0.025
0.017
0.075
0.002
0.011
0.077
0.193
0.508
0.902
0.871
0.761
0.228
0.031
1.191
1.357
0.807
1.142
1.757
0.127
1.562
2.069
3.021
6.006
4.702
7.411
3.723
5.817
7.445
2.666
0.200
6.740
11.422
4.627
8.088
16.726
5.818
9.945
17.884

MSE

0.000
0.001
0.000
0.002
0.001
0.000
0.006
0.000
0.000
0.006
0.037
0.258
0.814
0.758
0.579
0.052
0.001
1.417
1.842
0.651
1.304
3.088
0.016
2.439
4.279
9.124
36.074
22.107
54.916
13.862
33.837
55.429
7.110
0.040
45.428
130.462
21.405
65.415
279.772
33.848
98.910
319.824

MAPE

8.13
9.94
0.90
16.44
8.00
5.45
31.15
0.93
4.29
23.27
38.61
53.46
53.08
37.86
27.19
8.16
1.17
30.53
27.70
15.23
18.42
42.86
2.83
25.60
26.86
29.91
39.51
25.98
30.75
14.54
19.20
20.68
8.57
0.63
17.51
23.85
9.42
14.49
23.86
8.21
12.57
19.03

BIAS

0.020
0.026
-0.002
0.049
0.025
0.017
-0.075
-0.002
-0.011
0.077
0.193
0.508
0.902
0.871
0.761
0.228
-0.031
1.191
1.357
0.807
1.142
-1.757
-0.127
1.562
2.069
3.021
6.006
4.702
7.411
3.723
5.817
7.445
-2.666
-0.200
6.740
11.422
4.627
8.088
16.726
5.818
9.945
17.884

3.239 30.36877 19.92290

3.007

YEAR
N
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44

DEPOSITS FORECASTERROR
0.25 -17.33012
0.24 -15.69183
0.24 -14.05353
0.26 -12.41524
0.25 -10.77695
0.3 -9.138655
0.31 -7.500362
0.32 -5.862069
0.24 -4.223776
0.26 -2.585483
0.25 -0.94719
0.33 0.691104
0.5 2.329397
0.95
3.96769
1.7 5.605983
2.3 7.244276
2.8 8.882569
2.8 10.52086
2.7 12.15916
3.9 13.79745
4.9 15.43574
5.3 17.07404
6.2 18.71233
4.1 20.35062
4.5 21.98891
6.1 23.62721
7.7
25.2655
10.1 26.90379
15.2 28.54209
18.1 30.18038
24.1 31.81867
25.6 33.45697
30.3 35.09526
36 36.73355
31.1 38.37185
31.7 40.01014
38.5 41.64843
47.9 43.28673
49.1 44.92502
55.8 46.56331
70.1 48.20161
70.9
49.8399
79.1 51.47819
94 53.11648

MAD
17.580
15.932
14.294
12.675
11.027
9.439
7.810
6.182
4.464
2.845
1.197
-0.361
-1.829
-3.018
-3.906
-4.944
-6.083
-7.721
-9.459
-9.897
-10.536
-11.774
-12.512
-16.251
-17.489
-17.527
-17.566
-16.804
-13.342
-12.080
-7.719
-7.857
-4.795
-0.734
-7.272
-8.310
-3.148
4.613
4.175
9.237
21.898
21.060
27.622
40.884

17.580
15.932
14.294
12.675
11.027
9.439
7.810
6.182
4.464
2.845
1.197
0.361
1.829
3.018
3.906
4.944
6.083
7.721
9.459
9.897
10.536
11.774
12.512
16.251
17.489
17.527
17.566
16.804
13.342
12.080
7.719
7.857
4.795
0.734
7.272
8.310
3.148
4.613
4.175
9.237
21.898
21.060
27.622
40.884

2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
r
r^2

45
46
47
48
49
0.846063
0.715823

54.75478
56.39307
58.03136
59.66966
61.30795

2.58379E-15

1.059E+01

MSE

MAPE
309.061
253.823
204.305
160.662
121.594
89.088
61.002
38.218
19.925
8.097
1.433
0.130
3.347
9.106
15.257
24.446
36.998
59.612
89.476
97.959
111.002
138.628
156.558
264.083
305.862
307.203
308.547
282.368
178.011
145.936
59.578
61.732
22.995
0.538
52.880
69.058
9.913
21.282
17.430
85.316
479.540
443.528
762.964
1671.462

BIAS
7032.05
6638.26
5955.64
4875.09
4410.78
3146.22
2519.47
1931.90
1859.91
1094.42
478.88
109.43
365.88
317.65
229.76
214.97
217.23
275.75
350.34
253.78
215.02
222.15
201.81
396.36
388.64
287.33
228.12
166.37
87.78
66.74
32.03
30.69
15.83
2.04
23.38
26.21
8.18
9.63
8.50
16.55
31.24
29.70
34.92
43.49

17.580
15.932
14.294
12.675
11.027
9.439
7.810
6.182
4.464
2.845
1.197
-0.361
-1.829
-3.018
-3.906
-4.944
-6.083
-7.721
-9.459
-9.897
-10.536
-11.774
-12.512
-16.251
-17.489
-17.527
-17.566
-16.804
-13.342
-12.080
-7.719
-7.857
-4.795
-0.734
-7.272
-8.310
-3.148
4.613
4.175
9.237
21.898
21.060
27.622
40.884

1.75813E+02

1.01932E+03

3.39123E-15

YEAR
N
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44

GSP(X)
DEPOSITS(GPS F
DEPOSITS ERROR
0.4
0.25
0.202 -14.884
15.134
0.4
0.24
0.315 -13.359
13.599
0.5
0.24
0.427 -11.835
12.075
0.7
0.26
0.539 -10.310
10.570
0.9
0.25
0.651
-8.786
9.036
1
0.3
0.763
-7.261
7.561
1.4
0.31
0.875
-5.737
6.047
1.7
0.32
0.987
-4.212
4.532
1.3
0.24
1.100
-2.688
2.928
1.2
0.26
1.212
-1.163
1.423
1.1
0.25
1.324
0.361
-0.111
0.9
0.33
1.436
1.886
-1.556
1.2
0.5
1.548
3.410
-2.910
1.2
0.95
1.660
4.935
-3.985
1.2
1.7
1.773
6.459
-4.759
1.6
2.3
1.885
7.984
-5.684
1.5
2.8
1.997
9.508
-6.708
1.6
2.8
2.109
11.033
-8.233
1.7
2.7
2.221
12.557
-9.857
1.9
3.9
2.333
14.082
-10.182
1.9
4.9
2.445
15.606
-10.706
2.3
5.3
2.558
17.131
-11.831
2.5
6.2
2.670
18.655
-12.455
2.8
4.1
2.782
20.180
-16.080
2.9
4.5
2.894
21.704
-17.204
3.4
6.1
3.006
23.229
-17.129
3.8
7.7
3.118
24.754
-17.054
4.1
10.1
3.230
26.278
-16.178
4
15.2
3.343
27.803
-12.603
4
18.1
3.455
29.327
-11.227
3.9
24.1
3.567
30.852
-6.752
3.8
25.6
3.679
32.376
-6.776
3.8
30.3
3.791
33.901
-3.601
3.7
36
3.903
35.425
0.575
4.1
31.1
4.016
36.950
-5.850
4.1
31.7
4.128
38.474
-6.774
4
38.5
4.240
39.999
-1.499
4.5
47.9
4.352
41.523
6.377
4.6
49.1
4.464
43.048
6.052
4.5
55.8
4.576
44.572
11.228
4.6
70.1
4.688
46.097
24.003
4.6
70.9
4.801
47.621
23.279
4.7
79.1
4.913
49.146
29.954
5
94
5.025
50.670
43.330

2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
r
r^2

45
46
47
48
49
0.813064
0.661073

5.137
5.249
5.361
5.473
5.586

52.195
53.719
55.244
56.768
58.293

5.137
5.249
5.361
5.473
5.586

52.195
53.719
55.244
56.768
58.293

1.93784E-15

MAD

MSE
15.134
13.599
12.075
10.570
9.036
7.561
6.047
4.532
2.928
1.423
0.111
1.556
2.910
3.985
4.759
5.684
6.708
8.233
9.857
10.182
10.706
11.831
12.455
16.080
17.204
17.129
17.054
16.178
12.603
11.227
6.752
6.776
3.601
0.575
5.850
6.774
1.499
6.377
6.052
11.228
24.003
23.279
29.954
43.330

MAPE
229.037
184.945
145.804
111.733
81.647
57.174
36.564
20.542
8.572
2.026
0.012
2.420
8.470
15.878
22.651
32.306
45.002
67.780
97.168
103.671
114.627
139.971
155.138
258.565
295.994
293.402
290.822
261.729
158.824
126.047
45.584
45.916
12.964
0.330
34.219
45.889
2.246
40.663
36.630
126.062
576.155
541.899
897.254
1877.461

BIAS
6053.58
5666.43
5031.22
4065.54
3614.35
2520.46
1950.60
1416.35
1219.92
547.42
44.49
471.44
582.05
419.45
279.96
247.12
239.58
294.03
365.09
261.07
218.50
223.22
200.89
392.19
382.32
280.80
221.47
160.18
82.91
62.03
28.01
26.47
11.88
1.60
18.81
21.37
3.89
13.31
12.33
20.12
34.24
32.83
37.87
46.10

15.134
13.599
12.075
10.570
9.036
7.561
6.047
4.532
2.928
1.423
-0.111
-1.556
-2.910
-3.985
-4.759
-5.684
-6.708
-8.233
-9.857
-10.182
-10.706
-11.831
-12.455
-16.080
-17.204
-17.129
-17.054
-16.178
-12.603
-11.227
-6.752
-6.776
-3.601
0.575
-5.850
-6.774
-1.499
6.377
6.052
11.228
24.003
23.279
29.954
43.330

1.035E+01 1.77949E+02 8.59626E+02 1.45338E-15

FORECAST METHOD
NAVE
3MA
5MA
.3ES
.5ES
.7ES
TREND
REGRESSION

SUMMARY OF RESULTS
BIAS
MAD
MES
MAPE
r
r^2
2.181
2.516 20.172 16.609
4.143
4.288 49.939 25.496
6.110
6.160 98.562 32.508
5.794
5.824 93.500 30.036
3.949
4.036 47.012 23.304
3.007
3.239 30.369 19.923
0.00
10.59 175.81 1019.32 0.846063 0.715823
1.5E-015 10.35017 177.95 859.626 0.813064 0.661073

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