Industry T rend Analysis - Zika Virus Opportunities And T hreats

26 Jan 20 16

Braz il

Anti-infe ctive s

Ino vio P harmace uticals

BMI View: As well as a number of smaller developers looking to carve a niche for themselves, we would expect the most prominent vaccine developers to focus on Zika
vaccine research. The travel vaccine market would provide an element of protability, but regional brand establishment will be a more signicant draw. The lack of
prophylactic options should not immediately impact Brazil's tourist industry, but this year's big events will act as a test case, guiding future travel advice.
Whils t his torically thoug ht of as a relatively ins ig nicant virus , Z ika's g rowing links with microcephaly in neonates and the elicitation of autoimmune
conditions in certain populations has focus ed the s potlig ht on what is now emerg ing as a s erious public health threat, particularly in Brazil. Vaccination
repres ents a key way of eradicating the increas ing ly devas tating virus and GeneOne Life Science has announced the initiation of a collaborative res earch
prog ramme with Inovio Pharmaceuticals to tes t and advance a DNA-bas ed vaccine for preventing and treating Z ika virus infection.
Inovio and its collaborators are leverag ing their pas t experience in des ig ning and tes ting novel DNA-bas ed vaccines for related virus es including the Wes t
Nile, deng ue, and chikung unya virus es . The Z ika virus vaccine candidate is currently underg oing preclinical s tudies to evaluate its immunog enicity. There is
currently no vaccine and no cours e of treatment for the Z ika virus .
Fast Spread Intensifying Focus
According to the Pan Americas Health Org anization (PAHO) and the World Health Org anization (WHO), the Z ika virus is likely to s pread to all reg ions of the
Americas . Between May 2015 and January 23, it has s pread to 21 countries and territories of the Americas . Thes e include: Barbados , Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia,
the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, French Guiana, Guatemala, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras , Martinique, Mexico, Panama, Parag uay,
Puerto Rico, Saint Martin, Suriname and Venezuela. Anywhere the Aedes aegypti mos quitoes are found can provide an environment for local s pread of Z ika. In
the US, Z ika virus infections have been reported in returning travellers . The mag nitude of the epidemic in Latin America s ug g es ts that traveller cas es will
pers is t, increas ing the potential for local trans mis s ion in the US.

Engulfing The Region

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Key Vaccine Developers Evaluating Potential

GlaxoSmithKline has commented that whils t it does not have a Z ika vaccine prog ramme, it is looking into the pos s ibility of developing one us ing its current
vaccine capabilities . Similarly, Sanofi Pasteur is s aid to be exploring its options . Sano Pas teur received approval of its Deng ue vaccine in December 2015
following 20 years of development. This hig hlig hts the diculty and time-cons uming nature of avivirus vaccine development, s ug g es ting that a viable
vaccine for Z ika is a dis tant g oal. Heig htened indus try interes t was als o s een in the development of Ebola vaccines at the heig ht of the cris is and whils t drug
development waned in line with the cris is , vaccine developers remain committed. The potential of s ecuring marketing channels and brand awarenes s in Latin
America and other emerg ing market reg ions will provide a s ig nicant draw. Des pite macro-economic headwinds , combined s ales of pres cription drug s and
over-the-counter medicines in Latin America are forecas t to increas e from USD61.4bn in 2014 to USD115.4bn in 2019, repres enting a ve-year compound
annual g rowth rate (CAGR) of 0.6% in US dollar terms .

This mate rial is pro te cte d by inte rnatio nal co pyrig ht laws , and us e o f this is s ubje ct to o ur Te rms & Co nditio ns .
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Building Brand Awareness To Capitalise On Growth

Pharmaceutical Sales /Forecas ts In Select Z ika-Affected Americas Reg ions (USDbn)

Source: World Health Org anization/BMI

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Travellers Represent Potential For Long-Term Vaccine Profitability

Whils t non-prot org anis ations would build a long -term demand for Z ika vaccines in developing countries , protability would be driven by traveller demand.
Sources expect the g lobal traveller vaccine market to be worth over USD2bn by 2016, with North America leading demand. GSK and Sano are market
leaders , accounting for 85%. Any vaccines will come too late for Brazil's Olympic g ames in the s ummer of 2016. With no vaccine or drug options , the country
is concentrating on mos quito eradication for containment, but this is proving challeng ing due to living conditions in a s ig nicant portion of the country. We
do not expect that the health threat of Z ika currently pos es any long -term impact on Brazil's touris m indus try, and expect the virus to be viewed as another
acceptable traveller ris k along s ide other infectious dis eas es . From a peak of USD26.6bn indus try value in 2014 related to the World Cup, BMI forecas ts the
touris m indus try value to s ettle to USD15.7bn in 2016, remaining relatively s table throug h 2020. However, the Rio carnival in February will be us ed as a tes t
cas e, and if trans mis s ion to other reg ions increas es exponentially, we would expect g overnment org anis ations s uch as the Centers for Dis eas e Control and
Prevention to revis e travel g uidance. It is worth noting that Latin America is Brazil's main s ource market, with more than 2.3mn vis itors from the reg ion
expected to vis it in 2015, ris ing to 2.4mn in 2016. With the virus endemic throug hout larg e parts of the reg ion, lack of Z ika prophylactics or treatments will
not deter thes e reg ional touris ts .

Containing Impact On Tourism

Brazil Touris t Indus try Value (USDbn)

Source: BMI Forecas t/UN

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