Examining the Link Between College Gender Ratios and Assortative Marriage

Bryan Seegmiller
David Sims

seegy22@gmail.com bseegmi2
Economics Department

Project Purpose
The purpose of this project is to explore whether or not observed changes in the male-to-female
ratio of United States college students from the 1940s to the early 2000s impact assortative
marriage (defined as the marriage between individuals of similar levels of education).

Project Importance

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It has been well-documented that the latter half of the 20 century and the early 21 century has
seen vast upheavals in the societal roles of males and females in Western society. One noted
result of this gender revolution is the striking change in college gender ratiosin the US, for
example, the male-to-female college gender ratio changed from 1.6 in 1960 to .74 in 2003 (Katz
and Goldin, 2006). At the same time, economists and sociologists have documented an increase
in assortative marriages over the last several decades (see Greenwood et al, 2014, and Schwartz
and Mare, 2003 for example).
Past research has indicated that changes in the male-to-female gender ratios within a population
can have profound effects on marriage and labor markets, but most such studies have focused
on gender ratios in the overall population or within specific ethnic groups (see Abramitzky,
Delavande, and Vasconcelos, 2011, and Angrist, 2002). This study will examine whether changes
in male to female ratios within a subpopulation of interest, namely college students, has a
significant effect on the marriage patterns observed in society as a whole. No study of note has
yet been performed on this subject. Therefore this project will fill an important gap in our
understanding of societal marriage patterns. It is also of interest because increased assortative
marriage has been linked with increased economic inequality and greater stratification in society
(Greenwood et al, 2014, Fernandez, 2001). Changes in assortative marriage are important
because of their potential impact on families and family structure as well. For example, even as
assortative marriage has increased, we have seen a rise in the median age of first marriage and
lower rates of child-bearing. These phenomena could very well be related. We may also see
greater separation in rates of childrens college attendance between families as high- and loweducation individuals marry others of a similar educational background increasing rates. Such a
pattern is likely to increase intergenerational inequality between families (Fernadez, 2001).

Project Profile Body

Some of the very important early stages of the project are already complete. I have done a review
of the past literature and found that there is indeed a gap, as no study of note has examined any
link between college gender ratios and marriage patterns in society. Considerable time and effort
has also been spent constructing the necessary dataset, as dozens of spreadsheets provided by
the National Center for Education Statistics and the Biennial Survey of Education were compiled
together, creating a continuous time series of college gender ratios for each state dating back to
the 1960s, with some years from the 1950s and 1940s also included. As far as I know, this is the
most comprehensive dataset on state-level college gender ratios in existence.
This dataset has been combined with Census data on individuals education levels and
marriages. Since the vast majority of individuals attend college in their state of birth, each
individual is matched with the college gender ratios that occurred in their birth-state during the
years they were of college age. I plan on using a combined instrumental variable and fixed-effects
approach in order to capture the effect of college gender ratios on assortative marriage patterns.
Considerable time must also be spent creating convincing graphical evidence of the effects Im
trying to manage, including illustrating that there is significant enough within-state variation in
college gender ratios and assortative marriage patterns to justify the identification strategy Im
employing. I may also need to collect data on cross-generational incomes in order to connect this

project with a larger study headed by Dr. Dave Sims of the BYU Econ Department that examines
assortative marriage and its effect on intergenerational inequality.
Once I have determined whether or not there is strong evidence of an effect of college gender
ratios on assortative marriage I will begin to consolidate my findings and start the process of
presenting them in a research paper. The goal is to submit the paper to an undergraduate
research journal once it is complete.

Anticipated Academic Outcome

As mentioned, I hope to submit the paper for publication to an undergraduate research journal as
well as to present my research to my colleagues in the BYU Economics Department. The overall
goal is that this study will become an integral part of a larger project by Dr. Dave Sims that can be
submitted to a prestigious economics research journal. I also plan on using my research
experiences to be accepted into a top-level PhD program in either economics or finance after
applying next fall.

Qualifications
I am a senior at BYU double majoring in mathematics and economics and currently hold a 3.93
GPA. I have worked as research assistant for Dr. Dave Sims and Dr. Jim McDonald of the BYU
Econ department for about five months, and prior to that served as teaching assistant for the
economics department for three semesters. My experiences as a research assistant thus far have
helped me become quite skilled at implementing applied econometrics models in the statistical
package Stata, and my time spent with the difficult coursework of mathematics and economics
classes has given me an enhanced ability to think critically and solve complex problems. My
mentor Dr. Sims holds a PhD in economics from MIT and has considerable experience publishing
high-quality research in applied microeconomics.

Project Timetable
-Nov-2014-Jan 2015Implement and refine econometric models. Complete data analysis.
-Feb-March 2014Begin compiling findings to be included in research paper
-April 2015Outline research paper, begin writing paper.
-May-July 2015Complete writing paper, submit to undergraduate research journal, present
findings. Complete ORCA Grant final report.

Scholarly Sources
Katz, Lawrence and Goldin, Claudia. 2006. The Homecoming of American College Women: The
Reversal of the College Gender Gap, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Volume 20, Number 4.
pages 133-156.
Greenwood, Jeremy, Guner, Nezih, Kocharkov, Georgi, and Santos, Cezar. 2014. Marry Your
Like: Assortative Mating and Income Inequality. NBER Working Paper No. 19829
Schwartz, Christine R. and Mare, Robert D. 2005. Trends in Educational Assortative Marriage
From 1940 to 2003, Demography, Volume 42, Issue 4, pages 621-646.
Abramitzky, Ran, Delavande, Adeline, and Vasconcelos, Luis. 2011. Marrying Up: The Role of
Sex Ratio in Assortative Matching. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, Volume 3,
Issue 3, pages 124-157.
Angrist, Josh. 2002. How Do Sex Ratios Affect Marriage and Labor Markets? Evidence From
Americas Second Generation. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 117, Issue 3, pages
997-1038.
Fernandez, Raquel and Rogerson, Richard. 2001 Sorting and Long-Run Inequality, Quarterly
Journal of Economics, Volume 116, issue 4, pages 1305-1341.