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HydraulicDesignManual:RegressionEquationsMethod

Section10:RegressionEquationsMethod
Regressionequationsarerecommendedastheprimaryhydrologicmethodforoffsystem(nonTxDOT)
projectsforonsystemprojects,theyarerecommendedasacheckonothermethods.OmegaEMregression
equationsarereliablebeyond10sq.mi.drainagearea.Acomparisonmethodshouldbeusedfordrainageareas
below10sq.mi.andmustbeusedfordrainageareasbelowabout5sq.mi.Thismethodshouldnotbeusedfor
drainageareaslessthan1sq.mi.
Discretionmaybeusedonoffsystembridgesandculverts.Asthedesignofthesecrossingsistypically
"hydraulicallysameorslightlybetter,"theimportanceofhavinganexactflowrateisoflesserimportancethan
onsystemcrossings.Attheengineer'sdiscretion,theuseofacomparisonmethodmaybedisregarded.
Ifanadequaterecordofstreamflowisnotavailableatorneartheprojectsite,anLPIIIdistributioncannotbe
developedwithBulletin#17Bprocedures.Analternativeforestimatingtheneededdesignflowistousea
regressionequation.
Regressionequationsareusedtotransferfloodcharacteristicsfromgaugedtoungaugedsitesthroughtheuse
ofwatershedandclimaticcharacteristicsasexplanatoryorpredictorvariables.USGShasdevelopedsuch
regressionequationsfornaturalbasinsthroughouttheStateofTexas.

ProcedureforUsingOmegaEMRegressionEquationsforNaturalBasins
Equationshavebeendevelopedfornaturalbasinsin1degreelatitudeandlongitudequadranglesinTexas.
Figure45showsthegeographicextentsofeachquadrangle.Theapproachusedtodeveloptheregional
equationsisreferredtoastheRegressionEquationsforEstimationofAnnualPeakStreamflowFrequencyfor
UndevelopedWatershedsinTexasUsinganLmomentBased,PRESSMinimized,ResidualAdjusted
Approach.(USGS2009)Fordevelopmentanduseofregressionequationsanaturalbasinisdefinedashaving
lessthan10percentimperviouscover,lessthan10percentofitsdrainageareacontrolledbyreservoirs,andno
otherhumanrelatedfactorsaffectingstreamflow(USGS2001).Theequationsarethereforenotapplicableto
urbanwatersheds.

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Figure45.OmegaEM(
here.

HydraulicDesignManual:RegressionEquationsMethod

)quadranglesforTexasregressionequations.Toviewa.pdfofthisimage,click

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HydraulicDesignManual:RegressionEquationsMethod

Figure46.Meanannualprecipitation,ininches
Equation412isthegeneralformoftheOmegaEMregressionequationforTexas:

Equation412.
Where:
QT=peakdischargeofrecurrenceintervalTyears(cfs)
P=meanannualprecipitationininchesfromFigure46
S=dimensionlessmainchannelslope
=OmegaEMfromFigure45
A=contributingdrainagearea(mi2)
l=apowerdeterminedbyiterativePRESSminimizationfortherecurrenceinterval
a,b,c,d,e=regressioncoefficientsspecificfortherecurrenceinterval
Meanannualprecipitationisthearithmeticmeanofasuitablylongperiodoftimeoftotalannualprecipitation 3/4
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HydraulicDesignManual:RegressionEquationsMethod

Meanannualprecipitationisthearithmeticmeanofasuitablylongperiodoftimeoftotalannualprecipitation
ininches.Themeanannualprecipitationwasassignedbasedontheapproximatecenterofthewatersheds.
AsquithandRoussel(2009TxDOT055211)considersthatanygeneralandauthoritativesourceofmean
annualprecipitationforanysuitablylongperiod(perhaps30years)issufficientforsubstitutionintothe
regressionequations.
Mainchannellengthisdefinedasthelengthinstreamcoursemilesofthelongestdefinedchannelfromthe
approximatewatershedheadwaterstotheoutlet.Mainchannelslopeisdefinedasthechangeinelevation,in
feet,betweenthetwoendpointsofthemainchanneldividedbythemainchannellengthinfeet.
OmegaEM( )parameterrepresentsageneralizedterrainandclimateindexthatexpressesrelative
differencesinpeakstreamflowpotentialnotrepresentedinthewatershedcharacteristicsofdrainagearea,
slope,andmeanannualprecipitation.
Sincethegaugesusedtodeveloptheequationsarepointsinspace,andthatthevariablesused(contributing
area,slope,precipitation)areactuallyattributesofthatspecificpoint,theOmegaEMshouldalsopertaintothe
pointinquestion.Assuch,ifthecontributingdrainageareaoverlapsmorethanonequadrantonFigure45,the
OmegaEMmustnotbeweightedoraveraged.TheOmegaEMspecificforthequadrantofthesitemustbe
selected.
Thesummaryofweightedleastsquares,PRESSminimized,regionalregressionequationsusingdrainage
area,dimensionlessmainchannelslope,meanannualprecipitation,andOmegaEMareprovidedinTable44.
RSE,residualstandarderrorinlog10unitsofcubicfeetpersecondAdj.,adjustedAIC,AkaikeInformation
CriterionPRESS,PRedictionErrorSumofSquares.
Table44:RegressionEquations
RegressionEquations

http://onlinemanuals.txdot.gov/txdotmanuals/hyd/regression_equations_method.htm

RSE

Adj.R
squared

AICstatistic

PRESSstatistic

0.29

0.84

273

64.6

0.26

0.88

122

49.1

0.25

0.89

86.5

46.6

0.26

0.89

140

49.5

0.28

0.87

220

55.6

0.30

0.86

320

64.8

0.37

0.81

591

98.7

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