Professional Documents
Culture Documents
November 7, 2016
These survey results represent the opinions of 36 of the nations top money managers,
investment strategists, and professional economists.
FED SURVEY
They responded to CNBCs invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were
collected on November 3-5, 2016. Participants were not required to answer every question.
April 30,
Trump
Don't know
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
78%
... is most likely to win?
8%
14%
44%
47%
8%
69%
25%
6%
10%
FED SURVEY
20%
30%
40%
50%
April 30,
46%
Clinton
23%
Trump
14%
Johnson
Stein
Don't know
0%
17%
60%
0.0
Trump
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
1.63
Taxes
2.89
Business regulation
1.17
3.59
2.49
Trade
0.80
1.97
Jobs
2.24
2.12
Budget deficits
1.03
5.0
0.2
FED SURVEY
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.2
April 30,
29%
Senate
49%
23%
100%
House
0%
0%
Republicans
Democrats
Don't Know
FED SURVEY
Clinton wins
-5.0
-4.5
April
30,
-4.0
-3.5
-3.0
Trump wins
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
-1.1
-3.3
Percentage points
-4
-3
-2
-1
Trump wins
0
+1.43
-2.86
Basis points
FED SURVEY
Pres.30,
Trump
April
Pres. Clinton
100%
Yes 5.9%
90%
80%
Yes
61.8%
70%
60%
No
82.4%
50%
40%
30%
No
26.5%
20%
Don't
know
11.8%
Don't
know
11.8%
10%
0%
FED SURVEY
0%
10%
20%
April 30,
Don't know
40%
38%
John Taylor
14%
David Malpass
10%
Ivan Boesky
5%
Glen Hubbard
5%
Carl Ichan
5%
Larry Kudlow
5%
Larry Lindsey
5%
Greg Mankiw
5%
Stephen
Moore
5%
Kevin Warsh
5%
30%
50%
10.
If Yellen is not reappointed, who do you think is
most likely to be appointed Fed chair by a President
Clinton?FED SURVEY
April 30,
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Lael Brainard
35%
Don't know
17%
Stanley
Fischer
9%
Larry
Summers
9%
Elizabeth
Warren
9%
Heather
Boushey
4%
Karen Dynan
4%
Richard Fisher
4%
Alan Kruger
4%
Daniel Tarullo
4%
50%
FED0% SURVEY
20%
40%
April 30,
Clinton
wins
Trump wins
60%
23%
34%
80%
100%
12.
In general, which of the following is better for
stocks and the economy:
FED SURVEY
April 30,
0%
20%
40%
46%
29%
Don't know/unsure
14%
6%
3%
3%
0%
60%
80%
100%
FED SURVEY
Currencies
0% 30,
April
Other
11%
Fixed
Income
11%
Equities
24%
Economics
55%
Comments:
Jim Bianco, Bianco Research: Trump win, think BRexit. Everyone
thought that would be bad for markets. But central banks panicked,
"printed money" and markets rallied. Same thing could happen with
Trump winning.
Peter Boockvar, The Lindsey Group: The markets and thus the
economy (I wish it was the other way around) will be driven in 2017
not by who the next president is but where interest rates go, either
central bank or market driven.