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Modeling the rainfall of different cities of

Punjab
Pakistan, once a water-redundant country, is now a water deficit country. To
meet the growing needs of water, the rainfall is neither adequate nor regular.
Design of irrigation and drainage systems, for instance, needs to take account
not only of mean expected rainfall but also of rainfall volatility. In the last
century change in climate is one of the most important issue. Economic,
physical and social development is badly affected due to change in climate.
The average monthly rainfall for different cities has collected from the Pakistan
metrological department. About 70% of the annual rainfall in the months of
July to September occurs. The surface water resources of Pakistan mainly
consist of flows of the Indus River and its tributaries, which bring in about 138
million acre feet (MAF) of water annually. In the present study a new approach
of neural networks is use to resolve the problem of modeling the rainfall. We
first model the conditional distributions of rainfall amounts, in such a way that
the model itself determines the order of the process and the time-dependent
shape and scale of the conditional distributions. After integrating over
particular weather pat-terns, we are able to extract seasonal variations and
long-term trends.