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  • CNG Release Probabilities from Trucking Accidents

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    mofiyinfolu
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    This document lists probabilities for various events that could lead to the release of compressed natural gas from a tanker truck. It provides probabilities for over 70 basic events, such as an accident occurring, the tank or valves being defective, impacts or fires damaging the tank or valves, and safety valves failing to open. The probabilities range from 0 to 1, with most being on the order of 10-3 to 10-6, indicating the events are relatively unlikely but still possible.

    Original Description:

    EVENT PROBABILITIES FOR CNG RELEASE

    Original Title

    Cng Release - Events Probabilities

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    This document lists probabilities for various events that could lead to the release of compressed natural gas from a tanker truck. It provides probabilities for over 70 basic events, such as an accident occurring, the tank or valves being defective, impacts or fires damaging the tank or valves, and safety valves failing to open. The probabilities range from 0 to 1, with most being on the order of 10-3 to 10-6, indicating the events are relatively unlikely but still possible.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    17 views3 pages

    CNG Release Probabilities from Trucking Accidents

    Uploaded by

    mofiyinfolu
    This document lists probabilities for various events that could lead to the release of compressed natural gas from a tanker truck. It provides probabilities for over 70 basic events, such as an accident occurring, the tank or valves being defective, impacts or fires damaging the tank or valves, and safety valves failing to open. The probabilities range from 0 to 1, with most being on the order of 10-3 to 10-6, indicating the events are relatively unlikely but still possible.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 3

    EVENT PROBABILITIES FOR RELEASE OF CNG WHILE

    TRUCKING
    EVENTS

    EI

    BASIC EVENT
    PROBABILITIE
    S

    8.00E-06

    E12

    ACCIDENT OCCURS
    CNG RELEASED FROM DEFECTIVE LIQUID LEVEL VENT
    VALVE
    CNG RELEASED FROM CORRODED TANK SHELL

    E13

    CNG RELEASED FROM DEFECTIVE TANK SHELL

    3.00E-06

    E14

    CNG RELEASED FROM DEFECTIVE MANWAY COVER

    0.00E+00

    E10

    3.00E-06

    E20

    CNG RELEASED FROM DEFECTIVE INTERNAL OUTLET


    VALVE
    CNG RELEASED FROM SAFETY VALVES DURING NORMAL
    TRANSPORT
    CNG RELEASED FROM DEFECTIVE PIPING CONNECTIONS

    E21

    CNG RELEASED FROM DEFECTIVE EXTERNAL VALVES

    8.00E-06

    E22

    CNG RELEASED FROM DEFECTIVE END CAP

    8.00E-06

    E23

    EXTERNAL VALVE HAS DEFECTIVE SEAT

    2.40E-04

    E41

    FIRE OCCURS

    1.60E-02

    E42

    FIRE IMPINGES ON TANK SHELL

    1.00E+00

    E43

    1.98E-01

    E51

    TRUCK OVERTURNED
    FIRE GENERATES PRESSURE RISE IN TANK SUFFICIENT
    TO ACTIVATE VALVES
    TRUCK REMAINS UPRIGHT
    CNG RELEASED WHEN CRUSH FORCES FAIL SAFETY
    VALVES
    CNG RELEASED WHEN PUNCTURE FORCES FAIL SAFETY
    VALVES
    CNG RELEASED WHEN IMPACT FORCES FAIL SAFETY
    VALVES
    FIRE DURATION SUFFICIENT TO FAIL SAFETY VALVE
    FIRE DURATION CAUSES PRESSURE RISE SUFFICIENT TO
    FAIL DEFECTIVE VALVES
    SAFETY VALVE HAS DEFECT

    E61

    IMPACT FORCES FAIL MANWAY COVER IN ACCIDENT

    0.00E+00

    E64

    PUNCTURE PROBE FAILS MANWAY COVER IN ACCIDENT

    0.00E+00

    E65

    CRUSH FORCES FAIL MANWAY COVER IN ACCIDENT

    0.00E+00

    E66

    GASKET EXPOSED TO FIRE


    FIRE DURATION SUFFICIENT TO FAIL MANWAY COVER
    GASKET

    1.98E-01

    PRESSURE FORCES FAIL MANWAY COVER IN ACCIDENT

    0.00E+00

    E17
    E18

    E44
    E45
    E46
    E47
    E48
    E49
    E50

    E67
    E68

    8.00E-06

    8.00E-06

    8.80E-01
    8.02E-01
    0.00E+00
    0.00E+00
    0.00E+00
    0.00E+00
    0.00E+00
    1.00E-05

    4.00E-01

    EVENT PROBABILITIES FOR RELEASE OF CNG WHILE


    TRUCKING
    E80
    E81

    IMPACT FORCES CONTACT EXTERNAL PIPING


    IMPACT FORCES SUFFICIENT TO SHEAR OFF EXTERNAL
    PIPING AT SHEAR SECTION

    4.80E-02
    1.00E+00

    E82

    INTERNAL VALVE FAILS TO OPERATE

    3.00E-04

    E85

    PUNCTURE PROBE DAMAGES INTERNAL VALVE

    0.00E+00

    E86

    CRUSH FORCES DAMAGED INTERNAL VALVE

    0.00E+00

    E87

    IMPACT FORCES CONTACT VALVE

    1.00E+00

    E88

    IMPACT FORCES SUFFICIENT TO DAMAGE VALVE

    1.00E+00

    E89

    FIRE CONTACTS VALVE

    1.00E+00

    E90
    E11
    0
    E11
    1
    E11
    2
    E11
    8
    E11
    9
    E12
    0
    E12
    1
    E12
    2
    E12
    3
    E12
    4
    E12
    5
    E12
    6
    E12
    7
    E12
    8
    E13
    0
    E13
    5
    E14
    0

    FIRE DURATION SUFFICIENT TO FAIL PACKING

    7.90E-03

    PUNCTURE PROBE PRODUCED IN ACCIDENT

    8.02E-01

    PUNCTURE PROBE CONTACTS TANK SHELL

    2.24E-01

    PUNCTURE PROBE FAILS TANK SHELL

    1.00E-02

    TANK HEAD IS DEFECTIVE

    2.00E-04

    TANK END IS DEFECTIVE

    2.00E-04

    TANK WALLS ARE DEFECTIVE

    2.00E-04

    IMPACT FORCES PRODUCED IN ACCIDENT

    8.02E-01

    TANK HEAD EXPERIENCES IMPACT FORCES

    5.90E-01

    IMPACT FORCES FAIL NORMAL TANK HEAD

    1.00E-02

    IMPACT FORCES FAIL DEFECTIVE TANK HEAD

    1.20E-02

    TANK END EXPERIENCES IMPACT FORCES

    2.65E-01

    IMPACT FORCES FAIL NORMAL TANK END

    1.00E-02

    IMPACT FORCES FAIL DEFECTIVE TANK END

    1.90E-02

    TANK WALLS EXPERIENCE IMPACT FORCES

    1.45E-01

    IMPACT FORCES FAIL DEFECTIVE TANK WALLS

    8.20E-03

    CRUSH FORCES FAIL TANK SHELL IN TRANSPORTATION


    ACCIDENT

    0.00E+00

    SAFETY VALVE FUNCTIONS NORMALLY

    1.00E+00

    EVENT PROBABILITIES FOR RELEASE OF CNG WHILE


    TRUCKING
    E14
    1
    E14
    2
    E15
    1
    E15
    2
    E15
    3
    E15
    4
    E15
    5
    E15
    7

    FIRE DURATION SUFFICIENT TO FAIL OVERTURNED


    TANK SHELL
    FIRE DURATION SUFFICIENT TO FAIL UPRIGHT TANK
    SHELL.
    FIRE DURATION CAUSES PRESSURE RISE SUFFICIENT TO
    FAIL NORMAL SHELL
    FIRE DURATION CAUSES PRESSURE RISE SUFFICIENT TO
    FAIL WEAKENED SHELL
    FIRE DURATION CAUSES PRESSURE RISE SUFFICIENT TO
    FAIL DEFECTIVE SHELL

    4.00E-01
    2.50E-01
    6.80E-01
    8.20E-01
    8.20E-01

    ACCIDENT FORCES SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN SHELL

    5.46E-01

    VALVES INSUFFICIENT TO VENT TANK

    0.00E+00

    VALVES FAIL TO OPEN

    1.00E-03

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