Obsolete air defence and a severe shortage of ammunition weaken India's defence capabilities,

the head of the army told the prime minister in a letter leaked on Wednesday, plunging the army's
relations with the government to new lows.
In the letter dated March 12, excerpts of which were printed by the DNA newspaper, Army Chief
Vijay Kumar Singh said the tank fleet of the world's second-largest standing army was devoid of
ammunition, elite special forces were "woefully short" of essential weapons and air defence was
97 percent obsolete.
"The state of the major (fighting) arms i.e., Mechanised Forces, Artillery, Air Defence, Infantry
and Special Forces, as well as the Engineers and Signals, is indeed alarming," Singh wrote in the
letter.
Sandwiched between fellow nuclear powers China and Pakistan, India is the world's top weapons
importer. It is spending billions of dollars updating equipment purchased from Moscow in Soviet
times, but it often takes decades to finalise contracts. Procurement has been slowed by corruption
scandals.
Defence Minister A.K. Antony confirmed the existence of the letter and said it should not have
been made public. Politicians from all parties reacted angrily and some called for the army
chief's resignation if he was found to be behind the leak.
"The government is determined to do all that is needed to continue to assure the safety and
security of India," Antony told parliament. "Publishing secret documents will not help the
nation."
In a rare show of unity, opposition parties rallied around the government, a sign of concerns
about the army chief's habit of challenging his civilian masters.
Earlier in the year Singh took the defence ministry to the Supreme Court after claiming he was a
year younger than military records showed. He lost the case.
On Monday, he said he had been offered a $2.8 million bribe to buy faulty trucks for the army, an
accusation seen as an attack on the defence ministry for not taking action on corruption in
weapons procurement.

India will lose geopolitical battles against

China with a weak economy
March 29, 2013 4:30 pm 24 comments
Chinas GDP in 2003 was $1.4 trillion. Its about $9 trillion now. Chinas new leader Xi Jinping
signed fresh deals to import modern jets, submarines and other deals flashing its $3 Trillion of
forex reserves. The Chinese have been aggressive in their diplomatic efforts across the globe
which is backed by the confidence they have in their economy. Compare this with that of Indian
foreign policy which has faltered with tiny states in its neighborhood, be it Maldives, Nepal,
Bangladesh ,Myanmar or Sri Lanka. In all these countries, India faces only one factor, China.
The same holds good for the South East Asian Countries and Africa where the scramble to gather
resources is well and truly on. India so far has only its soft power to show for but no concrete
policy or the money spent to carry any influence with these countries.
Let us first consider the sub continent which is our backyard. China has made heavy inroads in
all these countries developing roads, ports, railways and also providing weapons. China has
made a new road named friendship road from Tibet to Nepal which undermines Indias security.
China has made roads, ports and railways in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar. It has invested in
the Maldives. China has a head start in the oil and gas resources in Myanmar and set up a
surveillance system on the Coco islands that can track India missile tests. No surprises then when
China claimed that the Agni V missile had a much longer range than the 5500 kms claimed by
India.
Let us consider trade relations with each of the SAARC countries with China and compare it
with India.
1) Sri Lanka
The total bi-lateral trade value between Sri Lanka and China topped US $ 3.2 billion, which is
the highest in the history. Sri Lankas exports to china have increased by 5.9% to $ 162 million in
2012 in comparison to 2011. Chinas exports to Sri Lanka reached over US$ 3 billion in 2012.
Investments from China to Sri Lanka were likely to increase this year as against US $ 243
million recorded in 2012. The cooperation in the infrastructure sector also made great strides.
Major projects, like Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport in Hambantota, Putlam Power Plant,
Colombo-Katunayake Expressway, Colombo Lotus Tower, South Container Terminal of
Colombo Port, Extension Lines of South Highway from Pinnaduwa to Godagama and the
railway from Matara to Beliatta and some road construction projects like, A9 to Jaffna were all
working well.
Compare this with India which has $4 Billion trade and does have other projects, but many of
them have been half cocked and plagued with trouble due to the Tamil issue which has not

allowed India to fully realize the potential with Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka has come up with many
incentives for investment in their county so much so that an official in China said that Sri Lanka
was the best investment destination in South Asia and even better than ASEAN!
2) Bangladesh
Bangladesh represents one country which has dramatically fallen out from Indias grasp as far as
trade goes. Chinas trade though heavily lopsided in its favor now stands at $7 billion a year
while India stands at just $2.5 billion again with trade completely in Indias favor. Almost all of
Chinas exports to Bangladesh have come at Indias expense which traditionally exported all such
items like textiles, machinery etc to Bangladesh. China has been aggressively wooing
Bangladesh providing it space for exhibitions in trade fairs. Bangladesh has offered to China a
duty free zone to relocate some of its industries that face competition issues due to rising labor
prices in China.
3) Nepal
Chinas trade with Nepal stands at $2 billion which is again heavily in its favor. This represents a
huge jump in trade between the two countries although India still remains the largest trading
partner of Nepal at $4 billion. China has been wooing Nepal aggressively, It has made land ports
to facilitate trade between the two countries and China is investing in infrastructure development
in Nepal.
4) Maldives
Maldives has been firmly on the Chinese horizon in recent times. Although India has always
been the largest trading partner, China has now the same trade figures as India at about $70
million. More importantly, Chinese tourists now constitute the largest group in Maldives. China
has also extended big loans to Maldives. India has done the same but the recent change in the
government and the coming in of the Islamist government there has seen Indias influence wane
in the country.
Looking at the African stage, China has aggressively expanded its influence in the dark
continent. Today China has displaced the US and Europe in Africa to become the continents
largest trading partner at near $200 billion. The balance of trade is equal as China has heavily
invested in the natural resources in Africa and imports oil, copper and other raw materials to feed
its huge manufacturing base. There is a Chinese diaspora in Africa which takes care of Chinese
investments which includes roads, ports, dams, railways and more recently, manufacturing units
which have Chinese managers with African labor. Compare this with Indo-African trade at about
$75 billion though India has had historic and traditional ties with the continent and the presence
of large Indian origin population in the continent.
South East Asia too shows that China leads India by a long way. China is ASEANs largest
trading partner. Trade between the two stands at over $400 billion. Compare this with India trade
of $80 billion. Both India and China now have a free trade agreement with ASEAN but while
Chinas trade has been growing dramatically, India has been quite slow.

From all this, the most common factor is that China runs large trade surplus with each of these
countries being largely an export driven economy. The other fact is that the rate of increase of
trade is also very high at over 20% generally to over 35% with countries like those of ASEAN.
This has allowed it to run up large forex reserves which it is using all over the world in key
strategic areas to expand its influence for both trade as well as military and strategic objectives.
China has used its large surplus to develop infrastructure in Africa, South Asia and the poorer
countries of ASEAN. Contrast this with India which is a net importer and Indias $300 billion
reserve is not good enough for it to buy influence all over. Add to this India has some issue or the
other with its neighbors. These neighbors have now realized that they can play the China card in
its relations with India and China has obliged these countries readily and expanded its influence
in the region which is of great importance to it for both its energy security as well as trade it
ships its goods to Middle East, Europe and Africa.
India has been trying to increase its influence in the South East Asia where many of the countries
in the region have territorial disputes with China. But even then, Chinas trade and investment in
these countries far out strips India. With Vietnam, China has a trade of $7 billion while India has
$4 billion. China is heavily investing in Cambodia and Laos.
Even after India started economic reforms, it has progressed slowly. Lots of hurdles to trade and
investments and regulations has meant that its not easy to do business in India. This has held
back faster economic growth in India. China has relentlessly marched on it its economic progress
to become the second largest economy in the world and on course to be the largest by the end of
the decade. Chinese leaders have shown single minded focus of fast economic growth while
Indian leaders lack any foresight or vision to develop the country and are often seen come out
with populist, unsound and unwise policies to meet those populist schemes. India herself lacks
world class infrastructure and the expertise for it to build infrastructure abroad. Even if India
does undertake projects abroad, they are slow to complete. China on the other hand has built
world class infrastructure in its own country and has the expertise to execute major projects
world over and dwarfs the rest of the wold in infrastructure development. Chinas willingness to
do business with rouge regimes, gives it a major advantage. Just like how the west found it easier
to work with dictators while preaching democracy everywhere. Hard cash,weapons for rouge
regimes or massive loans and infrastructure development for poor countries is too much for any
of such nations to refuse practically.
For India to succeed diplomatically and in geopolitics it is imperative that it grows economically
and very rapidly at that. Right now China outspends India in every sphere to buy influence
which in many cases is detrimental to Indian national security but there is nothing that India can
do about it unless it can match China dollar for dollar. Indias good image will then be an
advantage to compete with China.

After the Mughals and the British, it now appears to be Chinas turn to encircle, enslave and
make India a surrogate power. Apparently, China firmly believes that two tigers cannot live on
the same mountain.
Under the weight of its collective incompetence, New Delhi continues to fiddle while Beijing
unleashes a creeping invasion.
Pacifism may be good for the individuals soul but it is suicidal for a nations security. With the
advent of Buddhism, Tibet, wallowing in pacifism, lost its freedom. Yet South Block refuses to
learn. Nehru was too petrified to come to the rescue of a small nation like Tibet. Nepal realized
this and as insurance, opened up communication channels with China. The total collapse of
Indias foreign policy saw Kathmandu exit our sphere of influence and become a vassal state of
China. Bhutan will soon follow suit as it watches a helpless India unable to protect itself.
Under the weight of its collective incompetence, New Delhi continues to fiddle while Beijing
unleashes a creeping invasion. The Chinese grand design envisions India as a surrogate power in
Asia led by Beijing. However, the chinks in the Chinese armour are Tibet and Sinkiang. Despite
the extraordinary infrastructure developed and the ability to induct multiple military divisions in
Tibet, Beijing faces a rebellion, a wound that continues to fester.
Owing to the extraordinary incompetence of the Indian Defence Minister, the modernization of
the Indian armed forces unfortunately is stuck in a groove for the last decade. Help of Western
technology and Indias belated move to upgrade infrastructure in the North-east are points of
major concern for China. Very few may have noticed that every time India moved closer to the
United States, Beijing was upset and it successfully unleashed its lobby in India to counter this.
Controlled media in Beijing vehemently criticized when the French Rafale was chosen by India
for the Indian Air Force, terming France as irresponsible! Rapid induction of far superior
Western technology into the Indian military and denied to the Dragon will upset the balance of
power enjoyed by China in Tibet which the former is even today unable to fully integrate with
the mainland. This chink in Chinas armour needs to be exploited.
India will need robust minds and not pacifists, who lose the battle in their minds even before it
begins
With Japan, Taiwan and others fortified by a commitment by the US for protection against
Chinas foray in South China Sea disputes, Beijing is likely to make noises but will, for multiple
reasons, concentrate militarily on the softest target available, the Indo-Tibet border.
First, Beijings assessment that the leadership in New Delhi is extremely weak and will not be
able to respond to any developing crises is accurate. Second, the Chinese who minutely monitor
all internal developments within India are aware of the deficiencies in manpower and the
equipment within the military. They are witness to the veterans returning their medals in disgust
to the President. Like Nehru, bereft of pragmatism, the political masters have simply not
equipped the military with adequate lethality. Third, and possibly the most important
consideration is that with the withdrawal of the American forces from Afghanistan, the strategic
vacuum needs to be filled. Therefore, it is intelligent to not only keep India away from

Afghanistan but also acquire as much territory as possible without firing a single shot in the
Eastern Sector.
The weak-kneed Indian leadership, ill-equipped military, internal turmoil and Chinas intention
to occupy with the help of Pakistan military, the empty strategic space, aids its grand design.
By hiding hundreds of incursions into the Indian Territory from the people, the government has
encouraged China to intrude 19 km inside in the DBO area enlarging its claims in Eastern
Ladakh. China insists on changing the ground rules here as it supports Pakistans claim on J&K
and calls it a disputed territory. This deep intrusion helps it prevent India playing the GilgitBaltistan and the POK card where, in connivance with Islamabad, PLA is involved in pacifying
the area under the garb of construction activities to the advantage of its proxy.
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India will need robust minds and not pacifists, who lose the battle in their minds even before it
begins, to work out a counter plan against China and China-Pakistan combine to foil their
attempts to illegally occupy our territory with an aim to dismember India. It will require a strong
national leadership and induction of military thinking in the foreign office. The propaganda by
the pacifists and the Chinese lobby, that since we are militarily not prepared, we need to concede
our territory and self-respect, is not true. Nations have won with much less with the backing of
firm resolve and strong generals, both political and military.
Despite the temporary reprieve and face-saving provided by withdrawal from DBO by the
Chinese to India in view of the visit of their Prime Minister, the incursions and land grabbing
will continue.
The Indian game plan, therefore, should be based on the following:

The rebellion in Tibet for independence must be provided with moral support. India also
needs to revisit Dalai Lamas government-in-exile, which is quietly supported by the
Western Alliance.

Since China and Pakistan have joined forces against India, we should extend moral
support in Gilgit-Baltistan, POK and Balochistan. If Balochistan becomes independent,
the Gwadar port will not be available to China causing a huge setback.

In the long term, invite technology transfer under joint ventures in private sectors with enhanced
FDI of 49 per cent to create modern defence production facilities in the country.

India has trivialized the term strategic partnership by signing it with all and sundry. It is
in Indias interest to invest in strategic partnerships with Asian countries such as Japan,
South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam as also to create decisive political, military and
economic relationship with the USA and the Western Alliance. The balance of power
should remain in Indias favour.

It is important to appreciate that China and Pakistan are the only two countries that lay
claim on huge chunks of Indian territory. Both are authoritarian regimes that conflict with
our liberal values. Despite every effort at appeasement by New Delhi, they will
endeavour to weaken our democratic structure.

Our investment in Afghanistan should not be wasted as the Americans withdraw. Alone
and with international support (including Russia), India should extend moral support to
the Afghans and disallow the Taliban to take over with the help of Pakistans ISI.

Diversify economic interest away from dependence on Chinese goods by creating

business-friendly environment for Japan, South Korea and the Western Alliance. The
Chinese economy is slowing down and their need for the vast Indian market is huge. This
is an interesting card in our arsenal.

Sprucing up the military and intelligence capabilities of India on a war-footing is vital

since we face two naturally hostile fronts. Initially, quick imports of basic weapon
systems are a necessity as it is not possible for a temporary compromise with national
security as suggested by many analysts. In the long term, invite technology transfer under
joint ventures in private sectors with enhanced FDI of 49 per cent to create modern
defence production facilities in the country.

under the prevailing confusion of demarcation of LAC, our military should intervene and
create similar incursions on the Chinese side.

For a long time Indians and Chinese have, on the ground, been in possession of areas
along LAC and China did not pose major objections. Cleverly after building the
infrastructure and the military wherewithal, it started flexing its muscle by enlarging its
claim in Eastern Ladakh by the 19 km incursion in the DBO sector. The claim by the

Chinese lobby in India that they can induct 30 divisions against us makes them look like
a superman. The truth is that they need acclimatization of these troops for high altitude,
which is time consuming and nullifies the element of surprise. On the other hand, India
can build troop levels faster as it already has a functional Corps headquarters in place.

At the local level, incursions by Chinese troops must be stopped immediately and under
the prevailing confusion of demarcation of LAC, our military should intervene and create
similar incursions on the Chinese side. This should be the Standard Operating Procedure.

Otherwise New Delhi will lose the plot, territory and enormous self respect.