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MANILA, Philippines The yield of longer-dated term deposits rose yesterday as the Bangko
Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) continued to mop up excess liquidity in the financial system.
The 28-day term deposits fetched a rate of 2.5584 percent, higher than last weeks 2.5551. The
accepted yield ranged between 2.5 and 2.5625 percent.
On the other hand, the yield of the seven-day term deposits remained unchanged at 2.5 percent.
As we migrate overnight funds into the seven-day and 28-day placements, we see the beginning
of a modestly upward path of interest rates for longer maturities, BSP Deputy Governor Diwa
Guinigundo said.
Bids for the seven-day term deposits reached P35.03 billion, while tenders for the 28-day term
deposits amounted to P196.91 billion. The central bank made a full award of P10 billion for the
seven-day term deposits and P100 billion for the 28-day term deposits.
Guinigundo pointed out the objective of the shift to the interest rate corridor (IRC) system that
included the launch of the term deposit facility (TDF) last June 8 is slowly being achieved.
We continue to see the expected result from the TDF as an active open market instrument. We
mop up excess liquidity resulting in the decrease in the bid to coverage ratio, he added.
Term deposits are common tools used by central banks for liquidity management. It allows central
banks to withdraw bulk of excess liquidity from the financial system.
From an original volume of P30 billion, the volume of the TDF was raised to P50 billion in July, to
P70 billion last Aug. 3, to P90 billion last Aug. 31, and to P110 billion starting Oct. 5.
With the shift to the IRC framework last June 3, authorities made an operational adjustment
slashing key policy rates. The rate for the overnight lending facility was set at 3.5 percent instead
of six percent, the overnight reverse repurchase rate was set at three percent instead of four
percent, and the overnight deposit facility was retained at 2.5 percent.
The interest rates for the overnight lending and deposit facilities form the upper and lower bound
of the corridor while the overnight reverse repurchase is set at the middle of the corridor.
BSP policy rate continues to provide the guidance to market rates and considering that inflation
rate is moving closer to the target and talks about the impending US Fed normalization remain
live, the trajectory even for interbank rates is indeed moving towards the policy rate, he said.
MANILA, Philippines The Philippines is eyeing exploratory talks with Chinese banks for possible
financial assistance to boost the local agriculture industry.
Agriculture Secretary Emmanuel Piol said he would be accompanying President Duterte in his
state visit to China next week to look into possible investment and financial aid for the countrys
rural developments projects and other agricultural concerns.
I asked permission from the President that on the sidelines of the state visit, I will make an
arrangement for exploratory talks with the banks of China and other institutions, Piol told
reporters in a chance interview.
I asked him (Duterte) if its okay to have a long term loan from Chinese banks for post-harvest,
fisheries and grains investments. Although, I still could not come up with the exact figure, he
added.
The President, together with his delegation, is expected to visit Beijing on Oct. 19 to 20, just a few
months after the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled in favour of the Philippines
against China on maritime entitlements in the West Philippine Sea.
Duterte has firmed up his plan to visit China this month amid criticism from the US over mass
killings in his bloody war against drugs.
Piol said the long-term loan, should there be formal and final discussions, would be allotted for
farm-to-market roads, post-harvest and cold storage facilities and processing centers.
My vision for the administration is to finish all farm-to-market roads. We already have the existing
PRDP (Philippine Rural Development Project) and I want to supplement that, he said.
While the PRDP is assisted by the World Bank, Piol said there was still a huge demand for
roads from the local farmers.
The six-year national project, which was jumpstarted by former agriculture secretary Proceso
Alcala, aims to increase rural income and enhance farm and fishery productivity in the targeted
areas in the four clusters of North Luzon, South Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.
The PRDP is already operating in 78 of the 80 provinces nationwide with a total portfolio of P39
billion for the infrastructure development component and P400 million for the enterprises
segment.
MANILA, Philippines The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corp. Ltd. raised anew the countrys economic
growth forecast as the Philippines continued to stand out as one of the strongest performers in Asia.
In its latest Asian Economics report for the fourth quarter, HSBC economist Joseph Incalcaterra said the countrys
gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection has been revised upwards to 6.5 percent instead of 6.3 percent
this year due to the stronger-than-expected expansion in the first half.
The countrys GDP growth accelerated to seven percent in the second quarter of the year from 6.8 percent in the
first quarter amid the strong boost from election related spending.
This brought the GDP expansion in the Philippines to 6.9 percent in the first half from 5.5 percent in the same
period last year.
The Philippines continues to stand out as one of Asias strongest performers. Following the strong outturn of
growth in the first half of 2016, we recently raised our full-year forecast from 6.3 percent to 6.5 percent, he said.
The bank sees the countrys GDP growth easing to 6.4 percent in the third quarter and to six percent in the fourth
quarter.
Although growth will moderate in year-on-year terms through the second half as the impact from the elections and
budget front-loading wears off, overall domestic demand will nonetheless remain resilient as government spending
continues to fuel growth, Incalcaterra said.
Likewise, HSBC retained the GDP growth forecasts for 2017 and 2018 at 6.3 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively.
This isnt to say there arent challenges to growth. After all, exports have been contracting rather sharply as of late
while imports of capital equipment surged and the trend growth of remittances has also moderated to
approximately 3.5 percent, he said.
Latest data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed cash remittances contracted 5.4 percent in July,
bringing down the growth in the amount of money sent home by Filipinos abroad to three percent in the first seven
months of the year.
Authorities believe the growth in receipts from the business process outsourcing (BPO) as well as tourism sectors
would cushion the slowdown in the cash remittances.
While remittances may not provide the same boost to consumption as before, we think that the improvement in
domestic employment opportunities, mostly from construction, BPO and tourism, are more than able to offset the
effect for now, he said.
The economist noted long-term issued such as the structural trade deficit as well as the not too bright outlook for
manufacturing exports outside of electronics.
People are giving different interpretations to the abrupt ending of the joint marine exercises dubbed as Philippine Amphibious Landing
Exercise (Phiblex) 33 between Filipino and American soldiers, with the latter packing up their equipment two days ahead of schedule. The
four US warships have already left Subic while the closing ceremonies were held the other day.
Conflicting reasons were given for the early end to the drills, with some officials claiming a lot of the activities were finished ahead of time
while some pointed to stormy weather predictions which precipitated the windup of the live drills at Crow Valley in Tarlac. The prevailing
perception however is that the early end of the joint exercises had to do with the recent pronouncements of President Rodrigo Duterte that he
will put an end to the practice taken by many as a sign of the deteriorating relationship between the Philippines and the United States.
People are getting conflicting signals from the President who has repeatedly criticized the US. Duterte says he will continue to honor the
Mutual Defense Treaty but expresses doubts about to need for the military pact with the countrys closest ally. Some say the colorful rhetoric
against the US could be because of perception that US President Barack Obama is now considered a lame duck President since his term is
nearing its end.
Many see the November elections in the US to be a close race, although Hillary Clinton is starting to get ahead of Donald Trump in the polls.
Some analysts believe a win by Hillary wont be good for the Duterte administration considering that she belongs to the same party as
Obama. Lets not forget she strongly reacted to President Dutertes s.o.b. comment directed at Obama, saying the cancellation of the
scheduled bilateral talks between Duterte and Obama on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Laos was appropriate.
Besides, Clinton is also widely acknowledged as the main architect of the US pivot to Asia policy. She is also strong on humanitarian issues
that include climate change and human rights which we all know are sensitive topics with President Duterte. She is an ardent supporter of
the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, and is considered a hawk with regard to China and its activities in the South China Sea. It
can be recalled that Hillary ruffled the feathers of China during the 2010 ASEAN Regional Forum in Hanoi when she declared that the United
States has a national interest in maintaining freedom of navigation and upholding international law in the South China Sea. Her remarks
drew the ire of the Chinese Foreign Minister who said outsiders should stay out of the issue.
Be that as it may, Im sure my friend, Foreign Secretary Jun Yasay, has plans to develop fresh relations with Clinton or even Trump as new
US president. After all, with new beginnings also comes new openings which hopefully the Duterte administration will take advantage of.
When the then candidate Rodrigo Duterte spoke before a group of Makati businessmen, he outlined his economic program by talking about the war on drugs he will wage once elected. He impressed upon the Makati group that making sure there is peace
and order will boost the economy.
He then said that he will cut red tape and corruption and build infrastructure. The Makati folks who were expecting something more substantial were disappointed. But in Dutertes experience as Davao mayor for 20 years he thought he said all that was
needed by way of helping the business sector thrive.
Duterte never imagined that on a national scale, there was more to it for business than facilitating issuance of a mayors permit. There are regional economic groups, international rating agencies, multilateral lending institutions, trade groups and even
world power politics that impact on a countrys business environment. And analysts decipher every word he says.
Our president is probably bewildered why his political tirades against the United States, the United Nations and the European Union are causing prospective investors to hold back.
According to John Forbes of the American Chamber, some investors looking to set up shop in the Philippines, specifically in the BPO sector, have decided not to push through with their plans at this point. Thats so many jobs lost in a vital industry.
It looked like a short honeymoon between business and President Duterte. The euphoria reflected in a bullish stock market and a strengthening peso appears to have evaporated in the midst of political uncertainty.
It was a roller coaster ride with the new president over the last hundred days, essentially powered by his coarse and unpredictable utterances. Not even his Cabinet members are sure if some remark made during the witching hours meant a change in
foreign or national policy.
It didnt help that Duterte himself says his words should not be taken at face value. His spokesman urged media to make creative interpretations. Former President Fidel V Ramos is not happy. A Duterte ally, Ramos observed that Team Philippines is
losing badly.
Duterte became stuck in unending controversies about extrajudicial killings of drug suspects and in his ability at using cuss-words and insultsThis is a huge disappointment and let-down to many of us.
Luckily the countrys economic fundamentals are still stronger than ever. But even the determination of Finance Secretary Sonny Dominguez to push through his economic reform agenda could barely assuage the fears of risk analysts of potential trouble
ahead.
An economist of Japanese financial giant Nomura wondered whether a sustained pickup in political risk premium could ultimately outweigh the growth prospects.
Bloomberg quotes another analyst saying The market is just pricing in the risk and ignoring the fact that the government has a sound economic plan and a promising fiscal program on the table.
Why is everyone so worried about Duterte? For one thing, uncertainty in the rule of law is a big deal in business. And it all points to the manner by which the presidents war on drugs is being implemented.
We believe this could undermine respect for the rule of law and human rights, through the direct challenges it presents to the legitimacy of the judiciary, media, and other democratic institutions, Standard & Poors said.
The global focus on death squads and threats of major shifts in foreign policy are making foreign investors nervous. While a crackdown on crime is very important, foreign investors are concerned about the lack of judicial process and risks to the
democratic system, another economist observed.
The first 100 days also did not reassure analysts and investors that the Duterte administration will be able to carry out its ambitious infrastructure program. The promised Golden Age of Infrastructure is slow to take off.
Boosting infrastructure spending is considered essential for improving competitiveness. The Philippines has under spent on infrastructure for decades, while other Asean countries have developed high quality infrastructure.
Apparently, the confusion arising from presidential utterances on foreign policy is giving potential investors second thoughts. Investors, who want a more stable, predictable investment environment have a lot of other choices in the region other than the
Philippines.
Duterte is unpredictable and anything thats unpredictable is negative, Hans Goetti, the Dubai-based chief strategist for the Middle East and Asia at Banque Internationale Luxembourg told Bloomberg. The worst thing for the markets is they dont know
what theyre dealing with.
Some local business leaders were harnessed by the Palace communications team to help blunt the feeling that Duterte is harming the economy. But even they could only say the analysts and investors must ignore the political noise and focus on the
determination of the Duterte team to boost economic growth.
Tuning out Mr. Dutertes noise is not easy. He is President, after all. Some of his statements seem not too welcoming of foreign investors. Indeed, some statements suggest Duterte has isolationist tendencies and that sounds so strange in todays
globalized world. We can do it alone, as Duterte once uttered, no longer hacks it.
The pivot to China and Russia doesnt seem too realistic even to locals. While an independent foreign policy is welcome, it is doubtful that the two communist countries can quickly replace the West as the nations principal trade and economic partners.
Bilateral trade with both countries is small. In the case of China, investment in this country is largely limited to their 40 percent equity in the National Grid. That investment pays handsome dividends to China that is almost like printing money. There is more
investment pouring into China from the Philippines, courtesy of the Filipino-Chinese taipans.
Finance Secretary Dominguez talks of getting Chinese investments in some of our infra projects. There are plans to revive the broadband project initiated by former President Arroyo that was scuttled in the midst of corruption charges. A government run
telco is said to be in the works.
Duterte may just be able to increase trade with China and bring home significant Chinese assistance in infrastructure development from his visit to Beijing next week. But two failed Chinese projects, the NBN and North Rail do not inspire confidence.
Still, the local business community is more sanguine about our future with Duterte than foreign analysts and journalists. For one thing, the first 100 days seem to have shown a determination to cut corruption and vastly improve front line government
services.
The serious drive to cut red tape is a fountain of hope for locals. Extending validity of drivers licenses and passports are long overdue reforms past administrations neglected.
Even the drug war gets mixed reviews but generally positive to local businesses. If it can deliver better peace and order, it may be worth their support.
Groups within the entrenched elite have been jolted by such things as a moratorium on agrarian land re-classification and the end to job outsource contracting or endo. But they know they are not threatened that much.
For one thing, the elite still have their minions in top positions in key agencies to protect their interests. Duterte doesnt seem to mind the obvious conflict of interest of a DICT Secretary or a DOTr Usec, for instance.
If the infra agencies are able to bid out and implement the list of projects they have promised, the local business community will be too busy making money to complain about other policies of Duterte they may not normally agree with.
For the SM group, its strategy is to build shopping malls in second- and
third-tier cities at a pace of one mall per year, said SM Investments
Corp. investor relations chief, Cora Guidote.
Another SM mall
Business deals
Chua said the business delegation would be a mix of small and big
businesspeople looking for opportunities in what he expected would
be a reawakening of trade and investment ties that went into hiatus
due to rising tension in the South China Sea.
The visit comes as Mr. Duterte puts aside years of hostility to seek a
new partnership with Beijing at a time when tensions between Manila
and its traditional ally, Washington, are mounting.