Year Quarter Sales Forecast Consecutive Quarters

1 I 98 113.544118 1
II 106 115.288235 2
III 120 117.032353 3
IV 165 118.776471 4
2 I 100 120.520588 5
II 116 122.264706 6
III 133 124.008824 7
IV 159 125.752941 8
3 I 95 127.497059 9
II 120 129.241176 10
III 135 130.985294 11
IV 165 132.729412 12
4 I 105 134.473529 13
II 108 136.217647 14
III 128 137.961765 15
IV 173 139.705882 16
141.45 17
143.194118 18
144.938235 19
 Simple
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.3180296779
R Square 0.101142876 Very Low correlation
Adjusted R Square 0.0369387958
Standard Error 25.6229364818
Observations 16

ANOVA
df SS
Regression 1 1034.2617647
Residual 14 9191.4882353
Total 15 10225.75

Coefficients Standard Error

Intercept 111.8 13.436781249
Consecutive Quarters 1.7441176471 1.3895988354

Five (5) Year Sales History for Flowers with Forecast

200

150

Sales Volume 100

50

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Quarter

Sales Forecast
 Simple Regression

ow correlation

MS F Significance F
1034.261764706 1.575334 0.2299811951 >0.05 so not significant
656.5348739496

t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
8.3204450476 8.64E-007 82.9809704485 140.619029552 82.98097 140.619
1.2551231353 0.229981 -1.2362754367 4.7245107308 -1.236275 4.724511

with Forecast

12 14 16 18 20
Upper 95.0%
17.22442
0.139945
Decomposition and Multiple Regression

Year Quarter Sales Dt MA(4) Centered St It St Dt/St

1 I 98 1.272896 124.7438
II 106 1.116172 118.3142
III 120 122.25 122.5 1.020833 0.977995 117.3594
IV 165 122.75 124 0.751515 0.777301 128.2547
2 I 100 125.25 126.875 1.26875 1.272896 127.2896
II 116 128.5 127.75 1.101293 1.116172 129.4759
III 133 127 126.375 0.950188 0.977995 130.0733
IV 159 125.75 126.25 0.794025 0.777301 123.5909
3 I 95 126.75 127 1.336842 1.272896 120.9251
II 120 127.25 128 1.066667 1.116172 133.9406
III 135 128.75 130 0.962963 0.977995 132.0293
IV 165 131.25 129.75 0.786364 0.777301 128.2547
4 I 105 128.25 127.375 1.213095 1.272896 133.6541
II 108 126.5 127.5 1.180556 1.116172 120.5466
III 128 128.5 0.977995 125.1833
IV 173 0.777301 134.4731
5 I
II
III
IV
6 I
II
III
IV

y=B0+B1X1+B2X2+B3X3+B4X4
Multiple Regression
Year Quarter Sales Dt S1 S2 S3 S4 Forecast
1 I 98 1 0 0 0 96.425
II 106 2 1 0 0 109.425
III 120 3 0 1 0 125.925
IV 165 4 0 0 1 162.425
2 I 100 5 0 0 0 98.475
II 116 6 1 0 0 111.475
III 133 7 0 1 0 127.975
IV 159 8 0 0 1 164.475
3 I 95 9 0 0 0 100.525
II 120 10 1 0 0 113.525
 III 135 11 0 1 0 130.025
IV 165 12 0 0 1 166.525
4 I 105 13 0 0 0 102.575
II 108 14 1 0 0 115.575
III 128 15 0 1 0 132.075
IV 173 16 0 0 1 168.575
5 I 17 0 0 0 104.625
II 18 1 0 0 117.625
III 19 0 1 0 134.125
IV 20 0 0 1 170.625
6 I 21 0 0 0 106.675
II 22 1 0 0 119.675
III 23 0 1 0 136.175
IV 24 0 0 1 172.675
 B0 122.41
B1 0.5108
t Trend Forecast Seasonal Index Forecast
1
2
Flower Sa
3 200
4 180
5 160
6 140
7 120 f(x) = 0.5108097902
8 R = 0.1935318685
Sales Volume 100
9
80
10
60
11
40
12
20
13
0
14 1 2 3 4 5
15
16
17 131.0936 1.2728957811 166.8685
Sales Dt
18 131.6044 1.1161717752 146.8931
19 132.1152 0.9779947554 129.208
20 132.626 0.777301315 103.0904
21 133.1368 1.2728957811 169.4693
22 133.6476 1.1161717752 149.1737
23 134.1584 0.9779947554 131.2062
24 134.6692 0.777301315 104.6785

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.983585
R Square 0.96744
Adjusted R Square 0.9556
Standard Error 5.501653
Observations 16

ANOVA
df SS MS F
 Regression 4 9892.8 2473.2 81.70957
Residual 11 332.95 30.26818
Total 15 10225.75

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value
Intercept 95.9125 3.493116 27.45757 1.75E-011
S1 0.5125 0.307552 1.666386 0.123826
S2 12.4875 3.902394 3.199959 0.008455
S3 28.475 3.938584 7.229756 1.69E-005
S4 64.4625 3.998173 16.12299 5.32E-009

Flower Sales Forecast and 5-yr Historical Da

200
180
160
140
120

Sales Volume 100

80
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Sales Dt Forecast
 Flower Sales Forecast and 5-yr Historical Data
00
80
60
40
20 f(x) = 0.5108097902x + 122.4149032886
R = 0.1935318685
00
80
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Quarter

Sales Dt Dt/St Linear (Dt/St) Trend Forecast Forecast

Significance F
 4.17E-008

Lower 95%Upper 95%

Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
88.2242 103.6008 88.2242 103.6008
-0.164417 1.189417 -0.164417 1.189417
3.898389 21.07661 3.898389 21.07661
19.80624 37.14376 19.80624 37.14376
55.66258 73.26242 55.66258 73.26242

5-yr Historical Data

12 13 14 15 16

Forecast
1 22 23 24
 Actu
Week -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2
Atlanta 45 38 30 58 37 33 45
Boston 62 18 48 40 35 26 35
Chicago 62 22 72 44 48 44 34
Dallas 42 35 40 64 43 27 42
LA 43 40 54 46 35 32 43
Total 254 153 244 252 198 162 199

3 Month Moving Average Foreca

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Atlanta 42 43 39 39 40 44 41
Boston 41 34 32 34 39 43 45
Chicago 55 46 42 34 37 42 59
Dallas 49 45 38 35 39 42 52
LA 45 38 37 43 46 47 54
Total 232 206 188 185 201 218 251

5 Month Moving Average Foreca

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Atlanta 42 40 41 42 38 42 41
Boston 41 34 37 36 36 38 42
Chicago 50 46 49 39 41 41 47
Dallas 45 42 44 43 38 39 47
LA 44 42 42 42 41 43 52
Total 222 204 213 202 194 203 229
 Actual Sales Data
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
37 38 55 30 18 58 47 37
41 40 46 48 55 18 62 44
22 55 48 72 62 28 27 95
35 40 51 64 70 65 55 43
54 40 46 74 40 35 45 38
189 213 246 288 245 204 236 257

g Average Forecast #NAME?

8 9 10 11 12 13 Week
35 36 41 48 36 39 Atlanta
50 41 45 42 46 40 Boston
61 54 39 50 53 59 Chicago
62 67 64 55 46 43 Dallas
54 50 40 40 44 48 LA
262 248 229 235 225 229 Total

g Average Forecast
8 9 10 11 12 13 Week
36 40 42 38 37 44 Atlanta
46 42 46 46 42 40 Boston
52 53 48 57 50 46 Chicago
52 58 61 60 55 50 Dallas
51 47 48 47 42 45 LA
237 240 245 248 226 225 Total
 11 12 13 Average
23 55 40 40
30 45 50 42
35 45 47 47
38 47 42 48
48 56 50 46
174 248 229 222

3 Month Moving Average absolute error [(At-F

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
9 2 2 1 15 14 23 23
15 1 9 6 7 5 10 32
11 12 20 21 11 30 3 33
22 3 3 5 12 22 18 3
13 5 17 3 0 27 14 19
70 23 51 36 45 98 68 110

5 Month Moving Average absolute error [(At-F

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
9 5 4 4 17 12 23 22
15 1 4 4 10 10 13 28
6 12 27 16 7 31 15 24
18 0 9 3 13 25 23 13
12 1 12 2 5 31 12 16
60 19 56 29 52 109 86 103
olute error [(At-Ft)] Mean Absolute Deviation
9 10 11 12 13 Error (MAD)
11 4 25 19 1 11.4615384615
21 1 12 1 10 10
27 56 15 8 12 19.9230769231
12 21 17 1 1 10.7692307692
5 2 8 12 2 9.7692307692
76 84 77 41 26 61.9230769231
Average MAD 12.3846154
olute error [(At-Ft)] Mean Absolute Deviation
9 10 11 12 13 Error (MAD)
7 5 15 18 4 11.1538461538
20 2 16 3 10 10.4615384615
26 47 22 5 1 18.3846153846
3 18 22 8 8 12.5384615385
2 10 1 14 5 9.4615384615
58 82 76 48 28 62
Average MAD 12.40000
 3 Month Moving Average abso
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6
Atlanta 27% 4% 5% 3% 27% 47%
Boston 58% 3% 22% 15% 15% 10%
Chicago 25% 35% 91% 38% 23% 42%
Dallas 81% 7% 9% 13% 24% 34%
LA 41% 12% 31% 8% 0% 36%
Total 232% 61% 158% 76% 89% 170%

3 Month Moving Average abso

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6
Atlanta 27% 11% 11% 11% 31% 40%
Boston 58% 3% 10% 10% 22% 21%
Chicago 14% 35% 123% 29% 15% 43%
Dallas 67% 0% 26% 8% 25% 39%
LA 38% 2% 22% 5% 11% 42%
Total 203% 52% 191% 62% 104% 185%
ving Average absolute value [(At-Ft)]/At
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
128% 40% 23% 11% 109% 35% 3%
18% 178% 34% 2% 40% 2% 20%
5% 118% 100% 59% 43% 18% 26%
26% 5% 22% 49% 45% 2% 2%
35% 54% 11% 5% 17% 21% 4%
212% 394% 190% 126% 253% 78% 54%
Average MAPE

ving Average absolute value [(At-Ft)]/At

7 8 9 10 11 12 13
128% 38% 15% 14% 65% 33% 10%
24% 156% 32% 5% 53% 7% 20%
24% 86% 96% 49% 63% 11% 2%
33% 20% 5% 42% 58% 17% 19%
30% 46% 4% 26% 2% 25% 10%
238% 345% 153% 136% 241% 93% 61%
Average MAPE
Mean Absolute Percent 3M
Error (MAPE) Week 1 2 3 4
35% Atlanta -9 2 -2 -1
32% Boston -15 1 9 6
48% Chicago -11 -12 -20 21
24% Dallas -22 -3 -3 5
21% LA -13 5 17 -3
161% Total -70 -7 1 28
32.210%

Mean Absolute Percent 5M

Error (MAPE) Week 1 2 3 4
33% Atlanta -9 5 -4 -4
32% Boston -15 1 4 4
45% Chicago -6 -12 -27 16
28% Dallas -18 0 -9 -3
20% LA -12 1 12 -2
159% Total -60 -5 -24 11
31.749%
3 Month Moving Average Error (At-Ft)
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
15 -14 -23 23 11 -4 -25 19
7 5 10 -32 21 -1 -12 -1
11 30 3 -33 -27 56 -15 -8
12 22 18 3 -12 -21 -17 1
0 27 -14 -19 -5 -2 8 12
45 70 -6 -58 -12 28 -61 23

5 Month Moving Average Error (At-Ft)

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
17 -12 -23 22 7 -5 -15 18
10 10 13 -28 20 -2 -16 3
7 31 15 -24 -26 47 -22 -5
13 25 23 13 -3 -18 -22 -8
5 31 -12 -16 -2 -10 1 14
52 85 16 -33 -4 12 -74 22
 3 Month Moving A
13 Bias Week 1 2 3
1 -0.5384615385 Atlanta -9 -7 -9
10 0.6153846154 Boston -15 -14 -5
-12 -1.3076923077 Chicago -11 -23 -43
-1 -1.3846153846 Dallas -22 -25 -28
2 1.1538461538 LA -13 -8 9
0 -1.4615384615 Total -70 -77 -76
Average Bias -0.292307692

5 Month Moving A
13 Bias Week 1 2 3
-4 -0.5384615385 Atlanta -9 -4 -8
10 1.0769230769 Boston -15 -14 -10
1 -0.3846153846 Chicago -6 -18 -45
-8 -1.1538461538 Dallas -18 -18 -27
5 1.1538461538 LA -12 -11 1
4 0.1538461538 Total -60 -65 -89
Average Bias 0.0307692308
3 Month Moving Average Running Sum of Error = Sum(At-Ft) at week n
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-10 5 -9 -32 -9 2 -2 -27
1 8 13 23 -9 12 11 -1
-22 -11 19 22 -11 -38 18 3
-23 -11 11 29 32 20 -1 -18
6 6 33 19 0 -5 -7 1
-48 -3 67 61 3 -9 19 -42

5 Month Moving Average Running Sum of Error = Sum(At-Ft) at week n

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-12 5 -7 -30 -8 -1 -6 -21
-6 4 14 27 -1 19 17 1
-29 -22 9 24 0 -26 21 -1
-30 -17 8 31 44 41 23 1
-1 4 35 23 7 5 -5 -4
-78 -26 59 75 42 38 50 -24
kn 3 Month Moving Average
12 13 Week 1 2 3
-8 -7 Atlanta 9 11 13
-2 8 Boston 15 16 25
-5 -17 Chicago 11 23 43
-17 -18 Dallas 22 25 28
13 15 LA 13 18 35
-19 -19 Total 70 93 144

kn 5 Month Moving Average

12 13 Week 1 2 3
-3 -7 Atlanta 9 14 18
4 14 Boston 15 16 20
-6 -5 Chicago 6 18 45
-7 -15 Dallas 18 18 27
10 15 LA 12 13 25
-2 2 Total 60 79 135
onth Moving Average cumulative sum of absolute error = sum([(At-Ft)]) at week n
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
14 29 43 66 89 100 104 129
31 38 43 53 85 106 107 119
64 75 105 108 141 168 224 239
33 45 67 85 88 100 121 138
38 38 65 79 98 103 105 113
180 225 323 391 501 577 661 738

onth Moving Average cumulative sum of absolute error = sum([(At-Ft)]) at week n

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
22 39 51 74 96 103 108 123
24 34 44 57 85 105 107 123
61 68 99 114 138 164 211 233
30 43 68 91 104 107 125 147
27 32 63 75 91 93 103 104
164 216 325 411 514 572 654 730
) at week n
12 13 Week 1 2
148 149 Atlanta -1 -0.318181818
120 130 Boston -1 -0.4375
247 259 Chicago -1 -0.5
139 140 Dallas -1 -0.5
125 127 LA -1 -0.222222222
779 805 Total -5 -1.97790404

) at week n
12 13 Week 1 2
141 145 Atlanta -1 -0.142857143
126 136 Boston -1 -0.4375
238 239 Chicago -1 -0.5
155 163 Dallas -1 -0.5
118 123 LA -1 -0.423076923
778 806 Total -5 -2.003434066
 3 Month Moving Average Tracking Signal
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
-0.230769231 -0.178571 0.034483 -0.034884 -0.069264 -0.01264 0.002222 -0.001923
-0.066666667 0.008065 0.042105 0.050388 0.061995 -0.013235 0.012579 0.01028
-0.333333333 -0.085938 -0.029333 0.030159 0.029101 -0.009752 -0.025132 0.008036
-0.333333333 -0.174242 -0.048889 0.027363 0.048739 0.045455 0.022222 -0.000826
0.0857142857 0.039474 0.031579 0.084615 0.034358 0 -0.005394 -0.006667
-0.878388278 -0.391213 0.029945 0.157641 0.104929 0.009827 0.006497 0.0089

5 Month Moving Average Tracking Signal

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
-0.148148148 -0.136364 0.025641 -0.022876 -0.057915 -0.010417 -0.001079 -0.005556
-0.166666667 -0.0625 0.023529 0.05303 0.067669 -0.001471 0.020106 0.015888
-0.333333333 -0.118852 -0.064706 0.015152 0.030075 0 -0.017615 0.009953
-0.333333333 -0.25 -0.07907 0.019608 0.048666 0.052885 0.042575 0.0184
0.0133333333 -0.009259 0.025 0.092593 0.04381 0.009615 0.005974 -0.004854
-0.968148148 -0.576975 -0.069605 0.157506 0.132304 0.050613 0.049961 0.033831
 Average Tracking
11 12 13 Signal
-0.019027 -0.004505 -0.0036138358 -0.1412826644
-0.000764 -0.001389 0.0047337278 -0.1022623145
0.001141 -0.001687 -0.005049005 -0.147829849
-0.011858 -0.010192 -0.0098901099 -0.1496501007
0.000805 0.008667 0.0090854028 -0.072306593
-0.029704 -0.009105 -0.0047338202 -0.6133315216
Avg. Avg Tracking Signal -0.1226663043

Average Tracking
11 12 13 Signal
-0.015521 -0.001773 -0.0037135279 -0.1169674915
0.000739 0.002646 0.007918552 -0.1135855034
-0.00039 -0.002101 -0.0016092694 -0.1525713707
0.000618 -0.003763 -0.0070788108 -0.1531148892
-0.003497 0.007062 0.009380863 -0.0949168842
-0.01805 0.00207 0.0048978071 -0.6311561389
Avg. Avg Tracking Signal -0.1262312278