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REPORT of BERMUDA
GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA
Ministry of Finance
GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA
Ministry of Finance
Published by:
Government of Bermuda
Ministry of Finance
Page
THE ECONOMY IN 2016 1
Domestic Demand 2
External Demand 4
International Business 4
Tourism 5
Employment 6
Inflation in Bermuda 7
Balance of Payments 8
Financial Sector 9
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 17
TABLES 19
THE ECONOMY IN 2016 As a result, Bermudas GDP per capita rose from $92,267
in 2014 to $96,018 in 2015. When adjusted for inflation, the
The Ministry of Finance estimates that Bermudas GDP may level of economic activity or real GDP grew by 0.6 per cent.
have increased by 0.0-1.0 per cent in 20161 following the This rate was better than the five year average (2011-2015)
increase of 0.6 per cent in 2015. of negative 2.0 per cent. However, the result was below the
Ministry of Finances 2015 estimate (made in February 2016)
Many of the major economic indicators such as employment,
of an increase in GDP of 1.52.5 per cent.
employment income, air visitors, construction activity and
retail sales increased in 2016.
The positive movement in GDP of 4.0 per cent at current
The number of jobs is estimated to have grown by 0.2 per market prices was largely driven by a 5.3 per cent increase
cent and the official unemployment rate remained at 7.0 per in the output of the international business sector and growth
cent. of 10.9 per cent in the wholesale, retail trade and repair
services sector.
In the tourism sector, air visitors increased by 17 per cent
while cruise arrivals rose by 7 per cent. Employment in hotels The GDP growth in real terms of 0.6 per cent was mainly
fell by 2.9 per cent. caused by gains of $10.3 million in the output of the financial
intermediation sector, a $7.9 million increase in the business
Employment income rose by 0.8 per cent over the first activities sector, and a $7.3 million expansion in the Construction
three quarters of 2016. The largest increase occurred in & Quarrying sector. These gains were offset by declines of
Businesses Services whose employment income rose by 7.6 $6.3 million in the hotels and restaurants sector.
per cent.
FIGURE 1
The gross turnover generated by retail stores increased by
2.1 per cent in 2016 while jobs in the sector rose by 5.8 per
cent.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measured 1.5 per cent for
2016. This level of inflation is the same as in 2015 and below
the 2.0 per cent recorded in 2014.
The real estate and rental sector was the second largest Employment income supports personal consumption and is
contributor to GDP. This sector accounted for $983.6 million estimated to have increased by 0.8 per cent for the first three
in output or 16.6 per cent of total GDP. The value added from quarters of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015. For the
this industry increased by 2.1 per cent, increasing for the 12 month period ending September 2016, total employment
second consecutive year. The growth in this sector can be income was $3.26 billion, some $39.3 million or 1.2 per cent
attributed to an uptick in property transactions including a
greater than the 12 month period ending September 2015.
greater volume of commercial property sales.
The year-over-year level of employment income grew by
The next largest contributor to Bermudas economy is the
1.7 per cent during the first quarter and 2.1 per cent in the
financial intermediation sector. This sector accounted for
second quarter and declined by 1.4 per cent in the third
$706.3 million in output which represents 11.9 per cent of
quarter of 2016. In 2016 the Labour Force Survey, which
total GDP. The 2.1 per cent year over year decline in this
sector was the result of lower net interest, net fees and measures the unemployment rate, was not compiled by the
commissions received by banks as well as decreases in Department of Statistics because the Department is in the
reserves and premium supplements recorded by insurance process of completing the 2016 Census. During years when
companies. a Census is done, the Department of Statistics will use the
Census data for the unemployment rate because it is more
The business activities sector contributed $532.4 million to accurate. Due to the fact that the 2016 Census is not yet
the output of the economy representing 9.0 per cent of GDP. completed, the latest measure for unemployment was the
Output in this sector grew by 1.4 per cent led by greater sales 7% recorded in 2015.
of accounting, book-keeping and audit activities; computer
and related activities and legal services. The broadening economic recovery has led to modest
increases in employment income which should translate into
Output generated in the education, health and social
increased personal consumption.
services sector was recorded at $484.7 million in 2015,
which represents 8.2 per cent of total output. This sector The most recent estimates by the Department of Statistics
experienced growth in output of 4.5 per cent which was for household personal consumption are for the year 2015.
primarily driven by greater output in private health activities During that year, total household personal consumption was
and social work by private organizations. $3.13 billion, reflecting an increase of 3.0 per cent over 2014.
12
2013
can be attributed to an increase in demand for construction 10
8 2014
supplies, related to various types of construction, a rise in 6 2015
4 2016
do-it-yourself projects and an increase in small contractor 2
0
business.
1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr
Quarters
Motor vehicle stores recorded the next largest increase in
sales of all sectors. Five of the 12 months in 2016 recorded
INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS
In 2016 the international business sector provided 3,842
jobs in the economy reflecting a contraction of 1.5 per
cent year-over-year, or a reduction of 58 posts. Over the
first nine months of 2016, foreign exchange earnings of the
international companies increased by $2.7 million to $1,466
million representing growth of 0.2 per cent.
The Other Community, Social and Personal Services sector The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased at an average
experienced an increase in posts of 5.2 per cent, settling at annual rate of 1.5 per cent for 2016 which is in line with the
2,053 jobs in 2016 from 1,951 a year earlier. Ministry of Finances February 2016 forecast which stated
that, .inflation is expected to remain in the range of 1.5-
Employment levels in the Restaurants, Cafes and Bars sector 2.0 per cent. The headline rate in December stood at 1.6 per
stood at 1,911 in 2016, an expansion of 73 posts or 4.0 per cent year-over-year.
cent. The sector with the next largest amount of job growth
was Business Services. This sector experienced an uptick The average rate of 1.5 per cent, although low, is above
Canada which had an average inflation rate of 1.4 per cent.
of 45 jobs registering a total of 3,610 posts in 2016 or 1.3 per
Bermudas rate however, is below the UK (1.8 per cent) and
cent year-over-year.
the U.S. (2.1 per cent). The level of inflation had declined
Collectively, the three divisions of economic activity with between 2011 and 2013 before marginally increasing in 2014.
the greatest growth in jobs accounted for 329 additional Over the last two years, the rate has fallen again and equaled
jobs in 2016. 1.5 in 2015 and 2016. The average rates for the previous years
were 2.7 per cent in 2011, 2.5 per cent in 2012, 1.8 per cent
These increases were offset in large part by the Public in 2013 and 2.0 per cent in 2014. Such moderate inflation is
Administration sector which recorded the largest reduction beneficial for the economy as it encourages consumers to
in jobs in 2016. With the government continuing their program purchase goods and services and also supports productive
of reducing the size of the public service, this sectors planning and investment. Since 2008, when the yearly rate of
employment numbers fell from 3,936 in 2015 to 3,767 in 2016. This inflation was recorded at 4.8 per cent, the level of inflation
figure equated to a reduction in employment of 4.3 per cent. has averaged 2.0 per cent. Given this trend in the level of
In essence, the Trump victory has made macroeconomic Economists now expect growth to slow from about 2.1
projections very uncertain. Proposals for corporate and per cent in 2016 to no more than 1.5 per cent in 2017. The
personal income tax cuts; infrastructure spending; and shifts slowdown in growth is expected to be a result of the British
in trade, immigration, and regulation policies are likely to have pounds fall in value since the Brexit, as policymakers warn
sizable effects on the outlook of the US economyas well as over an inflation shock that could spark a cost of living crisis
spillover to the rest of the world. The overall scope has not for many.
yet been clearly defined and while confidence continued to
Experts are concerned surging prices from a weak British
improve in the immediate aftermath of the election, an increase pound will bring an end to the consumer spending spree that
in policy uncertainty, if persistent, could have a dampening has helped prop-up growth since the referendum.
effect on investment.
The Bank of England (BOE) has predicted inflation will jump
In terms of the proposals suggested by the new U.S. as high as 2.7 per cent in 2017, while the National Institute
administration, it is believed that the planned reduction in of Social and Economic Research, an independent and
corporate and personal income taxes could increase U.S. influential research organization, has said UK inflation could
GDP growth projections to 2.2-2.5 per cent in 2017 and 2.5-2.9 hit almost 4 per cent in 2017.
per cent in 2018. Estimates vary depending on the timing of
the tax cuts, the reaction of monetary policy authorities, and The UKs Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has also
how businesses and households adjust their expectations to stated that the economy is set to take a hit of almost GBP60
policy changes. Given limited details to date about the overall billion over the coming five years as a result of the Brexit
scope of all fiscal measures that the new administration vote, has slashed its growth forecasts and predicted higher
than previously expected government borrowing.
plans to implement, including plans to stimulate infrastructure
investment and cuts in other federal government outlays, it is The OBR and the BOE expect UK growth to pull back
difficult to rigorously examine their net effect on the outlook for remarkably in 2017, to 1.4 per cent in 2017 before rising to 1.7
the U.S. economy. per cent in 2018, according to the OBR.
During his campaign, Trump criticized US Federal Reserve (Fed) Economists believe interest rates will be held at 0.25 per cent
Chairperson Janet Yellen, saying she should be ashamed of throughout the whole of 2017, although with the uncertainties
the way shes run policy since being in charge. In 2015 the Fed over the Brexit negotiations and surging inflation on the
appeared to be positioning itself to follow up its first interest rate horizon, the outlook is unclear.
hike in nearly a decade with three or four more in 2016. However,
there was no move until December 14, when the central bank Canada: In 2016, economic growth in Canada was weaker
raised its main interest rate to a range between 0.5 per cent than expected. Forecasters were expecting, at the beginning
of 2016, that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would expand by
and 0.75 per cent. Many factors explained the hesitation to
1.7 per cent in Canada. However, it is now estimated that
raise rates, including unease over the global impact of Chinas
GDP growth will not exceed 1.3 per cent. This growth is
economic slowdown and uncertainty surrounding the US
moderate when compared with the 1.1 per cent growth that
election. But with the US economy continuing to do better than
was recorded in 2015, when economic activity was curtailed
most developed countries, with unemployment below 5 per
significantly by the drop in crude oil prices.
cent, and with inflation steadily rising, the Fed finally delivered
another hike. The markets are now predicting between three The negative effects of plunging crude oil prices on business
to four rate increases in 2017. Those expectations have helped investment were less severe in 2016 than in the previous
the US dollar rally, especially as other major central banks year, as was expected. However, they were underestimated.
persevere with super-loose monetary policies to breathe life After dropping by 11.2 per cent in 2015, business investment
into their own economies. fell by 8.0 per cent in 2016. Additionally, forecasters were
Less: Imputed bank service charge 436,952 470,146 431,021 442,201 405,333 424,861
Add: Taxes and duties on imports 224,179 216,367 206,828 203,518 201,569 203,512
Per cent change from previous year -2.5 -4.4 -4.0 -2.0 -0.3 0.6
Less: Imputed bank service charge 425,232 450,856 423,955 416,506 398,855 393,205
Per cent change from previous year -1.4 -4.0 -0.6 1.5 0.5 4.0
P = Preliminary data
F = Final
2016 102.1 2.1 102.5 2.5 104.7 4.7 103.1 3.1 102.5 2.5 106.4 6.4 97.0 (3.0) 101.6 1.6
2015
Jan 87.4 2.3 96.1 5.4 75.2 3.8 87.6 (3.3) 82.4 (6.7) 102.5 6.6 64.1 5.3 82.9 0.6
Feb 82.5 1.8 88.2 3.4 76.0 0.7 90.6 13.5 77.1 (10.1) 98.8 12.4 56.8 4.4 80.4 1.6
Mar 94.0 1.8 98.0 1.7 86.9 (2.7) 98.6 20.8 92.1 (7.8) 104.2 10.6 82.2 0.5 90.0 3.3
Apr 96.6 5.3 96.1 2.2 90.8 (5.1) 119.7 42.7 92.2 (6.0) 95.0 (6.1) 87.0 15.9 95.9 4.8
May 104.8 0.5 105.8 5.2 112.2 (3.1) 88.9 (4.7) 103.9 (5.6) 112.1 2.6 107.2 (2.4) 107.0 0.1
Jun 108.1 8.0 101.2 4.5 106.8 0.1 105.8 31.8 114.5 0.0 113.9 39.5 124.7 5.3 110.2 8.6
Jul 111.6 5.0 108.0 3.1 129.9 0.1 116.5 35.8 130.3 1.3 98.9 19.5 94.2 (4.9) 113.8 3.8
Aug 97.9 6.1 99.5 5.6 104.6 (0.1) 87.6 28.1 111.3 4.9 84.5 15.9 91.2 (0.2) 96.9 3.9
Sep 96.7 5.1 98.9 7.1 96.7 4.2 91.2 6.4 98.2 (6.6) 92.6 (4.8) 93.6 3.5 96.5 10.5
Oct 102.4 6.7 104.0 3.3 103.8 0.1 108.6 29.1 105.3
(6.9) 102.4 1.5 99.6 42.7 97.3 5.3
Nov 98.5 2.3 96.0 (0.3) 91.6 (1.6) 93.8 16.3 94.6 2.0 101.6 5.4 115.7 (1.9) 99.6 3.9
Dec 119.6 3.4 108.5 4.3 125.3 (0.5) 111.1 30.4 98.1 9.1 93.3 (5.2) 183.7 (3.2) 129.6 (0.9)
2016
Jan 91.3 4.5 99.4 3.4 74.3 (1.3) 110.4 26.3 87.3 6.2 91.3 (10.9) 62.0 (3.1) 86.4 3.8
Feb 88.1 6.8 93.2 5.7 79.4 4.4 111.5 23.4 85.0 10.5 94.9 (3.9) 57.5 1.4 84.6 4.8
Mar 98.6 4.9 103.5 5.6 93.0 6.9 104.8 6.8 92.5 0.8 118.1 13.3 78.6 (4.3) 96.0 6.2
Apr 98.9 2.3 100.6 4.7 97.2 7.0 115.2 (3.8) 96.4 4.4 113.4 15.1 82.6 (3.7) 95.5 (0.7)
May 103.4 (1.4) 103.5 (1.5) 110.9 (1.2) 100.2 13.0 107.0 3.3 116.8 4.2 99.2 (7.3) 100.9 (6.1)
Jun 110.4 2.1 104.0 2.8 116.6 9.1 110.8 4.9 115.7 1.3 103.5 (9.1) 122.2 (1.8) 114.2 3.3
Jul 112.7 1.0 108.8 0.7 141.1 8.5 108.3 (6.9) 132.1 1.7 113.7 15.0 99.7 6.1 113.1 (1.0)
Aug 100.8 2.9 100.6 1.1 106.8 2.0 85.5 (2.2) 109.9 (0.8) 100.5 17.5 93.0 2.2 104.3 7.6
Sep 102.2 5.7 104.0 5.1 105.5 8.7 112.8 27.4 101.3 3.6 104.4 12.7 91.4 (2.3) 99.2 2.0
Oct 98.6 (3.8) 105.3 1.2 109.3 5.2 86.6 (20.1) 104.0 (0.9) 102.3 (0.1) 76.8 (22.8) 95.3 (2.4)
Nov 103.3 4.9 99.6 3.7 95.6 4.4 108.0 15.1 99.2 4.9 122.8 20.9 114.7 (0.9) 102.8 3.2
Dec 116.7 (2.4) 107.5 (0.9) 127.1 1.4 82.9 (25.4) 99.2 1.1 95.0 1.8 186.8 1.7 127.1 (1.9)
2012 +2.4 +3.5 +0.2 +4.3 +2.5 +9.3 +1.0 +1.6 +2.7 +6.6
2013 +1.8 +3.0 -0.3 +0.1 +4.4 -1.9 +0.5 +1.4 +2.5 +8.3
2014 +2.0 +3.1 +0.8 +2.0 +2.4 -2.4 +0.8 +1.7 +1.9 +6.7
2015 +1.5 +2.7 +0.6 +1.3 +1.2 -8.9 +2.1 -1.3 +0.9 +7.8
2016 +1.5 +1.9 +1.0 +0.4 +5.1 -3.3 +1.6 -2.2 +3.3 +4.5
MONTHLY ( per cent)
2014
Dec -0.5 -0.7 Nil Nil -0.1 -9.0 Nil Nil -0.1 -0.1
2015
Jan Nil 1.3 +0.1 +0.2 +0.3 -2.5 +0.4 -1.7 Nil +0.1
Feb +0.2 +0.2 Nil Nil +0.1 Nil Nil +1.9 -0.6 Nil
Mar +0.2 +0.3 +0.1 Nil +0.1 +1.3 Nil +0.7 -0.1 Nil
Apr +1.0 Nil +0.2 +0.5 +0.4 Nil +0.1 +0.4 +0.1 +6.5
May -0.2 +0.4 +0.1 Nil Nil -2.6 Nil -1.0 Nil Nil
Jun +0.8 +0.1 Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil +5.9 +0.3 Nil
Jul -0.1 +0.1 Nil +0.7 Nil +4.0 +2.1 -3.6 -0.1 Nil
Aug -0.2 +0.3 +0.1 Nil +0.1 Nil Nil -1.6 -0.2 +0.1
Sep +0.3 -0.1 Nil Nil +0.2 Nil +0.3 +0.9 +0.9 -0.1
Oct -0.1 +0.2 +0.1 Nil Nil -1.3 Nil -1.2 +0.2 +0.5
Nov -0.1 -0.5 Nil Nil Nil -1.3 Nil +0.1 Nil Nil
Dec Nil -0.2 +0.1 Nil +0.3 -2.0 Nil +0.4 +0.1 Nil
Jan -0.2 +1.2 -0.1 +0.1 +0.4 -3.7 +0.1 -1.6 Nil Nil
Feb -0.1 +0.6 +0.1 Nil +1.1 Nil Nil -1.4 -0.3 +0.1
Mar -0.1 -0.1 Nil Nil Nil -0.8 +0.1 -0.7 +0.2 Nil
Apr +0.9 +0.3 Nil -0.5 +2.0 -2.6 Nil +0.8 +2.7 +3.2
May -0.1 -0.3 +0.1 Nil +1.5 -5.0 Nil -0.3 +0.5 Nil
Jun +0.5 +0.2 Nil Nil +0.8 +10.4 Nil +1.0 Nil -0.1
Jul +0.8 +0.3 +1.0 +0.1 Nil +4.3 +0.1 +2.5 -0.2 Nil
Aug -0.5 +0.1 +0.1 Nil Nil Nil Nil -4.3 Nil Nil
Sep +1.0 +0.1 Nil Nil +0.1 +6.0 +0.1 +4.5 +1.1 Nil
Oct Nil +0.1 Nil +0.3 Nil -0.9 +0.1 Nil +0.1 +0.1
Nov -0.5 -0.1 Nil +0.1 Nil -2.3 Nil -2.8 -0.2 Nil
Dec -0.1 -1.3 +0.1 Nil -0.4 -3.1 Nil +1.3 +0.1 Nil
Dec 16 102.1 101.4 101.7 100.8 106.2 98.0 102.9 98.4 105.2 103.8
Dec 16
+1.6 +1.1 +1.3 +0.1 +5.6 +1.3 +0.5 -1.2 +4.0 +3.3
Dec 15
Q4 22.8 8.0 8.6 0.3 37.6 0.0 1.2 55.7 37.7 18.0
2013 Q1 8.6 8.5 7.6 0.2 25.6 3.8 0.3 46.0 29.2 16.8
Q2 34.5 10.4 8.2 1.2 13.0 2.8 2.9 38.5 18.1 20.4
Q3 15.6 8.2 7.7 2.1 5.9 6.5 4.8 35.2 13.0 22.2
Q4 26.4 2.9 0.2 5.5 13.0 3.8 2.7 28.1 18.0 10.1
2014 Q1 18.0 5.0 0.3 21.2 21.6 4.3 2.2 54.6 24.2 30.4
Q2 56.3 5.5 1.7 3.6 7.9 2.1 4.1 24.9 12.3 12.6
Q3 16.5 5.5 1.3 3.5 1.0 1.6 5.5 18.4 7.5 10.9
Q4 31.7 5.5 1.4 6.0 0.2 0.8 4.3 18.2 5.2 13.0
2015 Q1 43.2 5.1 2.6 6.6 0.3 0.9 7.6 23.2 10.0 13.2
Q2 51.2 6.6 4.5 2.3 0.4 0.9 2.1 16.7 4.4 12.3
Q3 18.7 7.2 3.2 0.5 2.6 1.1 4.2 19.0 7.9 11.1
Q4 48.6 9.0 3.2 3.6 0.9 0.7 1.5 19.0 3.5 15.5
2016 Q1 12.4 12.8 11.7 3.6 0.4 2.5 6.1 37.1 7.0 30.1
Q2 55.4 10.9 8.4 2.3 0.4 0.7 2.7 25.4 9.5 15.9
Q3 15.7 5.3 2.3 2.9 1.6 1.3 0.9 14.4 5.3 9.1
Projects valued at $0.5 million or more
1
Source: Department of Statistics
TABLE 7
2012 Q1 4 12 9 11 36
Q2 5 15 14 26 60
Q3 1 17 48 30 96
Q4 8 10 12 6 36
2013 Q1 5 16 10 5 36
Q2 4 7 13 4 28
Q3 2 7 8 3 20
Q4 7 13 7 7 34
2014 Q1 3 7 3 1 14
Q2 7 5 20 14 46
Q3 2 5 1 1 9
Q4 2 4 7 6 19
2015 Q1 1 6 0 5 12
Q2 4 7 2 5 18
Q3 2 4 0 2 8
Q4 10 4 3 3 20
2016 Q1 1 10 1 1 13
Q2 4 6 5 2 17
Q3 3 4 4 0 11
VISITOR ARRIVALS
Source: Bermuda Monetary Authoritys Statutory Financial Returns For All International Insurers
Exports 23 25 23 21 8
Imports 900 1,012 969 935 482
Financial Account
Direct Investment 240 51 120 -84 92
Portfolio Investment -794 2,169 -1,853 1596 -599
Financial Derivatives 87 164 192 137 117
Other Investments 151 989 -545 -897 1,549
Reserve Assets -5 11 -15 7 16
Total Net Lending (+)/ Net Borrowing (-) 531 960 974 782 256