China-Pakistan Economic Corridor India-Pakistan Rivalry India Pakistan Relations Pakistan China International Relations

What is CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) and how will it

affect India, Pakistan & China?

9 ANSWERS

Mohammed Rafiq Sethi, I was born there.

15.1k Views

There is a lot of negative talk about China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor in Indian, American and some
Western circles. However, in the long run this will be something great for everyone not only in the region
but also for Europe and the US.

Before, I make my point, some background and factual information needs to be spelled out followed by
my thoughts in this post. I hope that I will be fair in this analysis.

Baluchistan is the largest province of Pakistan. Historically ignored for a variety of reasons including
complicit inattention by the feudal tribal aristocracy, corruption, lack of education and to certain degree
neglect on the part of the Central Government, this mineral rich province has not developed as the rest of
the country. Its natural resources are untapped. For example, it has the worlds fifth largest reserves of
gold and copper comprising the easy access to the Tethyan belt of an arc of gold and copper reserves.
This belt stretches from Hungary in Europe to Indonesia in the Far East across Eurasia but is much easily
accessible in Baluchistan.

World Largest Gold and Copper Mine Reko Diq Balochistan - Pakistan

The low level insurgency in Pakistani Baluchistan has been present in the province since independence.
There were at least five major spikes in violence which have occurred over the same period with the
latest starting in 2004 and continuing to as late as early 2014.

While the Baluch are Sunni Muslims, one fifths of them inhabit the Siestan and Baluchistan, a
southeastern province of mostly Shia Iran. In fact in the early seventies the Shah of Iran fearing the
eruption of Baluch nationalism had jointly conducted with Pakistan campaigns against the Baluch in
Pakistani Baluchistan. As recently as 2010 the Islamic Republic in Tehran executed a large number of the
leaders of a separatist movement, Jundallah on the Iranian side of the border with Pakistan.

Pakistan has developed its second largest port Gwadar with the help of the Chinese along its Arabian Sea
coast in the far southwestern corner of its Baluchistan Province. China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor
(CPEC) will stretch from the Western Chinese city of Kashgar in the Xinxiang province of China to the port
of Gwadar, thus providing China an access to the Arabian Sea barely 600 kilometer east of the narrow
Strait of Hormuz through which passes about 35% of the worlds oil shipments.
CPEC which includes roads and railways will pass through the entire length of Pakistan, Azad Kashmir
(PoK) and Baluchistan and it will reduce the distance for Chinese goods bound for Europe, Africa, the
entire western hemisphere, substantially by almost 2000 miles and vice versa. Trade by CPEC will be
bypassing the Strait of Malacca in Southeast Asia by that many miles. The Chinese goods if they were to
be unloaded at New York or Norfolk and Baltimore rather than California will travel less by two thousand
miles though the Suez Canal route.

There exists a salivating anticipation of the completion of the widening of the Panama Canal in early
2016, by the major US ports on the east coast, eager to trade with China, but when the above corridor will
be completed, a reduction of 2000 miles in the journey of goods from the western hemisphere might as
well become an equidistant route competing with the Panama Canal route.

Therefore CPEC has global trade implications and if one day Northwestern Indian states were to use the
port of Gwadar, it would be cheaper and quicker to do business through this corridor. Dont think it would
be impossible because precedence exist for the use of Fazilka-Amruka-Bahawalpur route to be known as
The Golden Route before 1947.

The Tribune, Chandigarh, India

Of course, undeniably, there are some other geo political considerations with multiple competing political
interests relating to CPEP. All of those are fair when it comes to a nation state owns interest and I am
not blaming anyone.

About a 100 mile west of Gwadar, the Iranian port of Chahbahar was built by Pakistans archrival India to
bypass Pakistan to reach its interests in Afghanistan in the early nineties. Despite US and EU pressure,
India conducts a trade of about 15 billion dollars with the Islamic Republic and imports about 15 percent
of its oil needs from Iran. India is the worlds fourth largest consumer of hydrocarbons. Before the
recently negotiated nuclear deal India had openly declared that it would follow only the UN sanctions
against the nuclear ambitions of Iran. Moreover, India is building a railway from Chahbahar to connect to
the Iranian Railway System to reach the Central Asian markets and tap the mineral rich Central
Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, China has been increasing its presence in the Indian Ocean with its String of Pearls with its
presence to which it has recently been added the island nation of Seychelles. This term Sting of pearls
was coined by the United States, but it is frequently used by Indian defense analysts.

In this regard, China has a commercial and military presence in several nations around India (besides
Pakistan) in Burma, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Somalia. With the opening of the Trans-
Pakistan road and rail corridor China (CPEC), an emerging power in the region will not only bypass the
Malacca Strait through which 80 percent of its oil supply presently flows, but reduce the distance as
noted above by 2000 miles.. China would not have to depend on the US to keep the choke point of Strait
of Malacca open because it will reach the warm waters of Arabian Sea through friendly territory and the
Pakistani port of Gwadar is hardly a few hundred miles from the mouth of the Persian Gulf.

And while this regional dynamics seem to have threatened Indians as if the Chinese were encircling
them, Pakistan, Chinas longtime ally in the region since it arranged the visit of President Nixons first visit
to the Communist nation in 1972, in itself feels encircled in turn by India, while Indians are extending the
Iranian railway into the mineral rich Afghanistan and hope to increase their commercial and strategic
interests in the former Soviet Central Asian Republics (CARs).

There is however a bigger challenge for Pakistan and it seems to eventually lead to be greater difficulty
as to how United States is going to behave in the region in the near future. In this context one should not
forget that in its pursuit to punish Iran for its nuclear designs, the United States had earlier blocked the
construction of a gas pipeline from Iran to energy starved India through both Iranian and Pakistani
provinces of their own Baluchistan.

While Iran has already long completed this gas pipeline from its Pars gas field up to the Pakistani border,
it was on hold because of American pressure during sanctions. Meanwhile after signing a civilian nuclear
deal, India briefly pulled out soon to show a renewed interest in trans-Pakistan Iranian gas. Even
Bangladesh is part of this deal but the Americans have kept the pipeline hostage in their obsession with
the Irans nuclear designs. Now that an opening has come up after the Iranian nuclear accord, this gas
pipeline will be ultimately built. The construction a spur from the Iranian border to Gwadar has already
started.

The idea of building mega-projects through Baluchistan is nothing new. In the 90s an earlier American
project, in which the oil and gas would have been transported by a pipeline from the oil rich Central Asian
Republics (CARs), through Afghanistan and Pakistani Baluchistan was dropped due to the security
issues.

Then came the idea of Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline and it had the support of
the United States because it would provide an alternate route to the Central Asian Gas, while it would no
longer be necessary for the CARs to depend on the existing Russian pipelines which carry the gas to the
Russian ports on the Black Sea. Additionally, TAPI would also bypass Iran and the Indian and Pakistani
thirst for gas will also be quenched without involving Iran. TAPI is currently in its initial phases of design
and may not be completed until 2020. Security problem which looms over TAPI as well will mostly be in
Afghanistan.

After originating at the Dauletabad gas field in Turkmenistan TAPI will follow the Herat-Kandahar road
and then enter Pakistan going through the Bolan Pass in Baluchistan. It will end up at Fazilka in India on
the border with Pakistan. Security of TAPI is a cause of concern in southern restive Afghanistan, now that
NATO troops have largely departed from the Afghanistan.

All of the above information is being provided to show how pivotal Baluchistan can be to overall economy
and the national interest of Pakistan. Times have changed and Pakistan is looking to improve the lot of
its largest province. No central government is going to sit on her hands in this global village of trade and
Pakistan is not an exception despite the odds.

To illustrate the commitment of the central government, besides other development projects, 500 km of
a 900 km motorway through the heart of rugged mountainous central Baluchistan has been completed
without a single incidence of sabotage. This was being constructed before the announcement of CPEC.

So now that the US has quietly left Afghanistan at the end of 2014, and Taliban terror seems to have
abated after Pakistani military action, Prime Minister Sharif is bent on improving the economy of
Baluchistan in particular. and Pakistan at large. He has no choice but to look to China because in the
context of the designs of Indias intentions and the ambiguous policy of the United States about the
region.

The United States while dragging along the European Union in its pursuit of the Iranians nuclear issue has
been ignoring at least on the surface or even obstructing the predicament of Pakistan. The business
minded Prime Minister of Pakistan, wants his country to become the new Asian tiger and earnestly wants
to make peace with India.

While keeping a large defense budget will be a drain on his budget and thus making it difficult to improve
the infrastructure in his own country, with no help from the West and the US, he has no choices but to
make peace with India and for better economic reasons, woo the Chinese and pay attention to the
security issues within Pakistan and that certainly includes Baluchistan.

While the Baluch cause has a lot of merit due to the neglect by the previous governments, it is
multifactorial, and the secessionist leadership has realized that if the security is better in their ancestral
homeland and if the Chinese invest heavily in Mr. Sharifs vision, the resultant prosperity will address their
grievances and continued low level insurgency is in nobodys interest.

A recent noticeable development was declaration of one of the leaders of the separatist movements. In
a recent BBC interview Brahamdagh Bugti, the grandson of the late Nawab Akbar Bugti and the most
radical secessionist hinted on a peaceful solution to the Baluch grievances.

With the Kashmir issue being stagnant since 1947 causing the two neighbors to start multiple wars in the
last century is no longer the way to prosperity. While the politician have to pander to the extremist both in
India and Pakistan, most of the population realizes that the status quo in Kashmir is acceptable and trade
across the 1000 mile border is in the interests of both sides. No one wants another war which could bring
the region to the nuclear brink. While Indias conventional forces are far superior to Pakistan, in retaliation
Pakistan would have no choice to use its nuclear arsenal and nobody in their correct minds wants that
for the region and for that matter for the world. Be it due to its regional implication but its environmental
problems that a nuclear exchange will cause to the planets atmosphere.

Therefore the skeptics should pursue a conciliatory course in the region and even offer help to Pakistan
in Mr. Sharifs efforts to improve Pakistani infrastructure. An economically advanced Pakistan, perhaps a
new Asian Tiger will help dilute the impact of the Taliban on the Afghan border, satisfy the grievances of
the Baluch and enable both Pakistan and India to start a multibillion trade with each other. American and
Western absolute fixation on Iran is counterproductive and a prosperous Pakistan and therefore CPEC is
in everyones interest.
Written Sep 6, 2015 View Upvotes

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OTHER ANSWERS

Siddharth Naik, IAS aspirant

4.7k Views

What ?
 -CPEC would establish transportation and energy infrastructure and do the groundwork for
number of industrial parks and smart cities along the corridor.

Where ?

-from kashgar in China's western Xinjiang province to Gwadar port in Pakistan.

What it means to china ?

-It gives china the point of access to Indian ocean at the strategically important tri junction of south
asia,west asia and Africa.

What it means to india ?

-It is not necessarily bad for india because one,Pakistan's youth can find meaningful work in the projects
and are unlikely to enter jihad.Two,china and pakistan have an initiative to curtail terrorism along the
corridor.
-India should be a cooperative force.

What can go against india ?

-China and Pakistan's increased presence in Afghanistan which will be detrimental to India's interest.
Written Nov 17, 2015 View Upvotes

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Harish Bhutra, Daydreaming a lot these days

6.2k Views

The ChinaPakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC) is a development megaproject which aims to connect

Gwadar Port in southwestern Pakistan to Chinas northwestern autonomous region of Xinjiang, via a
network of highways, railways and pipelines to transport oil and gas.The economic corridor is considered
central to ChinaPakistan relations and will run about 3,000 km from Gwadar to Kashgar. Overall
construction costs are estimated at $46 billion, with the entire project expected to be completed in
several years.The Corridor is an extension of Chinas proposed 21st century Silk Road initiative.According
to aFirstpost report, "this is the biggest overseas investment by China announced yet and the corridor is
expected to be operational within three years and will be a strategic gamechanger in the region.

More you can read from

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

Now how will it affect india well :-

1. First and most importantly it runs through POK which is claimed by india. So if china is going ahead
with this project that means it consider this part Pakistani territory not a disputed region.
2. China gets gwadar port through which china gets a strategic navel presence to encircle india from third
side.
3. Also it gets a place where its neval resources can stay, putting a bit of pressure on india.
4. Next most important thing after point 1, in case of war like situation it can quickly mobilize its army to
help its all whether friend.
5. Can keep eye on LOC.

AND i think that economic activity of this scale in this this terrorism affected area will always attract
more and more disturbing elements so india will have to spend a lot more then current expenditures to
keep its boundaries and people safe.
Updated Jul 15, 2015 View Upvotes

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Saad Hassan, Proud pakistani

3.2k Views

CPEC is one of the largest economical corridor projects in the history of any two countries. By
completion it will not only boost Pakistan's economical strength in the region but also will be a
gamechanger for baloachistan province of Pakistan. It will eventually provide a source of job
opportunities for Lacks of Pakistan's.

From Chinese prospective , it will allow them a gateway towards middle east and also increase there
influence in western Africa . Apart from economic point of view , CPEC will also serve an important place
for china in military prospective as well. From gawadar , china will be able to enhance its navy and
maintain its naval supermacy in the region . It will be able to keep also an eye on LOC as well. If India
does something , it will really easier for china to support its all weather buddy.
Written Jul 1 View Upvotes

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Muhammad Anees, Economist, Freelancer, Pakistani, Serious Thinker.

3.2k Views

CPEC has nothing to do directly with the India but Pakistan and China only. The effects on India is purely
to be born and created by India if does not think in Economic Policy Making and including any other
dimension into their policies which are beyond policy itself.

How?

China Pakistan Corridor can purely be benefitial to the India if rationalize its policies towards China and
Pakistan on realities instead of following conceptions. The threats that India worry about are equally
present both in India and outside so the first thing it needs to do is to overcome the internal threats to
seek pure economic benefits out of CPEC or similar projects in the future. Second, the mere allegations
from day one without any facts in many incidences has resulted Indian politics a question mark of trust