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Bo co cp nht ngnh
Thng 12.2015
Ngnh Dc
Trong 9 thng u nm nay c nc nhp khu 1.6 t USD cc mt hng dc phm tng khong
10.8% so vi cng k nm trc. Vi mc tng trng t nay n cui nm nhp khu c th vt
trn 2 t USD d cc thng cui nm gi tr nhp khu c chm li so vi cng k. Danh mc nhp
khu t cc quc gia nhiu nht c Php, n , c, Hn Quc chim 40% tng gi tr nhp khu.
Php vn l ngun cung ln nht th trng dc phm VN nm nay hn 208 triu USD, tng 20%
so vi nm trc. Mt s th trng c bin ng tng mnh hn 30% c Nga, Ty Ban Nha, Ba Lan,
Thy in. Th trng thuc Vit hng nm cung cp khong 50% nhu cu hn 3 t USD c nc.
Chi tiu thuc bnh qun u ngi Vit Nam hin nay quanh mc 35 37 USD/nm vn mc
thp so vi nhiu nc ln cn nh Thi Lan (60 USD ngi/nm), Trung Quc (100 USD
ngi/nm). Vi tc pht trin kinh t v nhu cu khm cha bnh ngy cng tng cao th trong
5 nm ti gi tr th trng dc phm Vit Nam c th t mc 8 t USD. n nay Vit Nam vn
nm trong top u th gii v tng trng chi tiu cho dc phm. R rng tim nng ca ngnh
dc phm l cn rt ln v vic thng qua hip nh TPP c thm nhiu c hi v thch thc
cho ngnh dc trong nhng nm ti.
Vietnam |Stock market
Bo co cp nht ngnh
0 0,0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F
Ngnh dc Vit Nam c khong gn 180 nh sn xut thuc trong hn 100 doanh nghip sn
xut tn dc cn li l cc doanh nghip sn xut ng dc. Do dc im cc loi thuc cha bnh
sn xut ti VN hu ht l tr cc bnh thng thng v vy gi thnh phi thp cnh tranh vi
thuc ngoi v cng d dng cung ng trong h thng y t bo him. Cc ngun nguyn liu dc
phm hin nay vn nhp khu t bn ngoi l ch yu v hng nm s lng nhp khu hn 50,000
tn, trong ch yu n t Trung Quc, n . Vic ph thuc gn nh hon ton ngun cung dc
liu t nc ngoi lm cho doanh nghip mt t ch trong hot ng sn xut, thiu tnh cnh
tranh v cht lng thuc cng khng t nh mun. Mt trong nhng nguyn nhn trn l do Vit
Nam cha thnh lp cc vng chuyn sn xut dc liu mc d iu kin t ai Vit Nam c u th
vi hn 4,000 cy thuc c th mang li ngun cung ln cho ng dc. Vic ch ng ngun dc
liu v lu di gip doanh nghip khng nhng h gi thnh cnh tranh trong nc m cn c th
xut khu. Mt s doanh nghip ln nh Traphaco trong nhng nm gn y ang xy dng cc vng
trng dc liu ln v ang tng t l ngun cung sn xut ln trn 90%. y l ch l mt s t doanh
nhip ln t ch c ngun cung cho chnh bn thn doanh nghip, cn li hu ht vn phi nhp
khu. c im ca trng cy thuc l phi ng dng cho mc ch c th v s lng bao nhiu v
nu khng s dng ht, cy thuc hon ton em hy b v khng th n ging nh rau trng. Sn
xut cy thuc phi gn lin vi t nhn v doanh nghip khng th c nhiu t ai trng v vy
cn c quy hoch bi bn vng nguyn liu v t l ngun cung cc loi. Nu pht trin t pht th
nhng ngi trng thuc d b cc thng li s dng cc tiu xo gy xo trn ngun cung lm lng
on th trng ging nh cc sn phm nng nghip khc. Do nh nc phi c chnh sch h tr
v bo v ngi trng thuc cng nh c quy hoch pht trin bn vng theo tng vng nguyn liu.
y l vn cp bch pht trin ngnh dc trong tng lai khi VN gia nhp TPP vn s mang
nhiu bt li nhiu hn thun li.
Vietnam |Stock market
Bo co cp nht ngnh
Khi gia nhp vo hip nh TPP cc cng ty dc phm trong nc s i din vi sc p cnh tranh
ln hn t cc hng quc t. Theo tha thun, dc phm s gim thu t 2.5% v 0%, ngoi ra thi
gian bo h i vi thuc c quyn s tng ln. Vi mc thu t 2.5% v 0% c th khng gy kh
khn qu ng k cho ngnh dc trong nc do mc thu ban u rt thp. Tuy nhin quyn bo
h cng thc thuc gc lu hn s l gy kh khn cho cc quc gia c nn sn xut dc phm
mc thp nh Vit Nam vn ch sn xut ch yu dng thuc generic l loi thuc c cng cng thc
thuc gc nhng ch c pht trin sau khi ht thi hn bo h c quyn. Vic ko di thi gian
bo h thuc gc s khin cc doanh nghip Vit Nam mt nhiu thi gian hn pht trin v thuc
ngoi s chim u th hon ton trn th trng.
Ngoi ra vic u thu cng din ra cng khai v cc hng dc nc ngoi s khng c s phn bit
vi cc hng dc trong nc. Mt s cng ty dc t cc nc Trung Quc, n c dc tnh thp
nhng u th gi r s c trng thu bnh vin v vy cn c cc bin php cn thit bo v cc
hng dc trong nc.
Tuy nhin vic gia nhp TPP cng mang li mt s mt tch cc nh s c nhiu doanh nghip nc
ngoi lin kt u t trong nc c v nghin cu pht trin ln sn xut v phn phi dc phm.
Hin nay c khong 10 doanh nghip FDI tham gia sn xut dc ti Vit Nam trong ch yu n
t M nh OPV, Ampharco, Boston Pharma, v Sanofi Aventis ca Php, Novartis ca Thy S. Pha
Vit Nam c mt s doanh nghip ln nh Dc Hu Giang, Pymepharco, Domesco, Imaxpharm,
Traphaco, OPC, SPM, Mekophar. Khong cc doanh nghip ln nim yt trn sn chng khon
tr mt s doanh nghip nh Pymepharco, Mekophar, Dc liu trung ng 2
JVC, DCL vi cc phn ngnh chnh dc phm, thit b y t c JVC, dng c y t c DNM, MEF, Cng
ngh sinh hc APC.
Mt s c phiu c vn ha ln nht:
Gi
S lng CP
M CK Tn Phn ngnh Sn Vn ha ng
lu hnh
ca
DHG Dc Hu Giang Dc phm HOSE 5,651.23 86,941,950 65,000
TRA Traphaco Dc phm HOSE 2,047.88 24,673,300 83,000
IMP IMEXPHARM Dc phm HOSE 1,070.88 28,942,646 37,000
DMC Dc phm DOMESCO Dc phm HOSE 1,041.84 26,713,797 39,000
OPC Dc phm OPC Dc phm HOSE 885.91 25,311,696 35,000
JVC Thit b Y t Vit Nht Thit b y t HOSE 652.50 112,500,171 5,800
DCL Dc phm Cu Long Dc phm HOSE 468.77 20,118,960 23,300
PMC Pharmedic Dc phm HNX 410.63 9,332,573 44,000
VMD Y Dc phm Vimedimex Dc phm HOSE 249.83 8,440,268 29,600
CNC Cng ngh cao Traphaco Dc phm UPCOM 242.44 9,470,357 25,600
SPM S.P.M CORP Dc phm HOSE 236.84 13,770,000 17,200
DHT Dc phm H Ty Dc phm HNX 222.98 6,281,089 35,500
APC Chiu x An Ph CN sinh hc HOSE 209.20 11,819,380 17,700
7.400
6.687 19,6%
6.413
5.307 5.216
DHG - Dc Hu Giang
Qu 3 DHG c s tng trng tr li sau khi c cu li hot ng thng mi. Tng kt 9 thng u
nm DHG t c 426 t ng tng nh so vi cng k. c s chuyn dch t trng ngun thu ln
ca DHG khi mng thuc ETC (thuc bnh vin) gim xung cn khong 10% v DHG s duy tr t
trng ny trong thi gian ti. Hin mng phn phi ETC cnh tranh ngy cng cao nn DHG gim
gi bn bnh qun gi th phn. Mng doanh thu t OTC (knh bn l) c ch trng hn vi cc
khch hng nh bn cnh nhm khch hng ln truyn thng. Thi gian va qua DHG tip cn
thm cc knh khch hng nh m trc y DHG cha ch trng nhiu v trong nm 2015 doanh
thu mng ny c s tng trng ng k gn 50%. Trong s khong 10,000 khch hng ca DHG c
30% n t nhm khch hng ln v phn cn li l t nhm khch hng nh. V vy vic ti c cu
cc knh phn phi gip DHG duy tr mc tng trng doanh thu tr li d t sut li nhun c th
gim mt cht.
16,00
14,00
12,00
10,00
8,00
6,00
4,00
6/1/2010 6/1/2011 6/1/2012 6/1/2013 6/1/2014 6/1/2015
TRA Traphaco
Traphaco l cng ty ng dc vi cc loi thuc b, thc phm chc nng v mt s thuc khng
sinh. Traphaco c li th ln nh t ch c n 90% ngun cung nguyn liu dc ng y, l iu
Vietnam |Stock market
Bo co cp nht ngnh
m cc doanh nghip ng y khc cha thc hin c. Traphaco tr thnh doanh nghip dc u
tin c vng trng 05 cy dc liu gm inh lng, Actiso, Rau ng t, Bm bm bic, Ch Dy c
B Y t cng nhn t chun GACP-WHO. TRA nng mc u t d n xy dng Nh my sn xut
dc Vit Nam c iu chnh t mc 300 t ng ln 420 t ng. Ti Sapa, TRA cng ang xy
dng nh my vi quy m 1 triu USD, nhm pht trin sn phm ch lc v ng dc v s ng
u c nc v pht trin ngun nguyn liu ng dc. V hot ng 9 thng 2015 cng ty t
doanh thu 1,438 t, li nhun sau thu 122.4 t tng 18.5% so vi cng k. TRA c n rt t v hu
nh khng ng k. Chnh v nhng li th t ch ngun nguyn liu v ti chnh m TRA lun duy tr
mc EPS hng nm trn 5,000. Li nhun trong 3 nm gn y c chng li nhng khng b st gim
l mt trong nhng c gng ln ca TRA trc s suy yu chung ca ngnh dc c nc. D bo
nm nay TRA s hon thnh doanh thu 1,860 t v li nhun 180 t, EPS t khong 7,200.
10000
EPS - li nhun TRA 180,00
9000 160,00
8000 140,00
7000
120,00
6000
100,00
5000
80,00
4000
60,00
3000
2000 40,00
1000 20,00
0 0,00
OPC
OPC l cng ty ng dc ln th hai sau TRA nhng li quen thuc vi ngi tiu dng hn do lch
s hnh thnh lu i v c nhiu sn phm c s dng rng ri nh du khuynh dip, Kim Tin
Tho, Cao ch Mu. Theo mt s nh gi nhng sn phm nh du khuynh dip ca OPC c cht
lng hn hn cc sn phm cng loi ca nc ngoi nhng gi li r hn. Nu cng ty y mnh
hot ng qung b v trau chut bao b s t nhiu thnh cng hn khng nhng trong nc ln
quc t.
9 thng u nm nay OPC t doanh thu 525 t ng, tng nh 9.6% so vi cng k nhng li nhun
li tng mnh 23% vi 57.4 t ng. Nm nay OPC c th duy tr li nhun c nm t 65 n 70 t
ng v gn nh bng vi 2014. Trong vi nm gn y mc d OPC tng vn iu l t 12 triu c
phiu nm 2013 ln 25 triu c phiu nm nay nhng kt qu hot ng kinh doanh li khng c
nhiu bc ph. OPC cng ging nh cc doanh nghip khc chu sc p cnh tranh ni a v chu nh
hng c vic l trnh thc hin cam kt WTO i vi ngnh dc. Hin ti OPC khng c nhiu d n
mi tim nng t ph m ch tp trung nhiu m rng knh phn phi m rng th phn, c bit
pht trin th trng cc vng su, xa xi ho lnh, min ni, ng bo dn tc.
OPC cng ang hon thin d n CTCP Dc phm Dc liu OPC Bc Giang (trin khai t 2012),
trong c phm vi nui trng v thu hi dc liu theo xu hng t tiu chun GACP. Nh my
OPC Bc Giang trng cc loi dc liu quan trng nh Kim tin tho, ch mu v cc loi cy tr ho,
cung cp nguyn dc liu cho 3 dng sn phm Kim tin tho, ch mu v vin Vitamin C Glocose &
dng sn phm thuc phin ca OPC.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q3/2015
Ch s trn mi c phiu
S CP Lu hnh 8.19 12.28 12.86 12.86 19.29 25.31
Gi tr s sch/CP 35,917 24,910 26,459 28,191 20,211 18,792
EPS c bn 6,169 4,109 4,336 4,376 3,405 3,714
Tim lc Ti chnh
T sut thanh ton tin mt 0.53 0.12 0.2 0.16 0.29 0.69
Vn vay di hn/Vn CSH 0.15 0.21 0.05 0 0 0
Vietnam |Stock market
Bo co cp nht ngnh
Hiu qu Qun l
ROE % 17.9% 16.8% 17.3% 16.0% 17.5% 18.6%
ROA % 12.9% 11.6% 11.6% 10.9% 12.3% 14.3%
C tc
T sut c tc 7.1% 5.7% 6.3% 7.1% 5.7% 5.7%
Ti chnh hin nay
EBIT 66.5 70.1 88.3 89.5 89.3 99.9
EBITDA 79.1 87.9 112.0 114.4 114.4 125.4
T sut li nhun gp 44.2% 50.9% 48.9% 50.7% 50.7% 47.4%
T sut li nhun thun 14.2% 12.3% 11.1% 10.0% 10.7% 11.5%
nh gi
Vn ha th trng 286.7 430.0 450.0 450.0 675.0 885.9
Gi tr doanh nghip (EV) 305.9 506.7 490.5 493.6 664.9 808.4
P/E pha long 9.4
P/B 1.9
IMP - Imexpharm
Imexpharm l doanh nghip dc phm tin thn l cng ty dc phm TW7 v c qu trnh hnh
thnh t doanh nghip nh nc. Imexpharm c hn 200 mt hng trong cc mt hng ch lc
ca Imexpharm l Khng sinh, Gim au h st, Khng vim, C xng khp, Vitamin, Khong cht,
Nhm hng c tr, nhm sn phm Imexpharm khc. IMP l mt trong nhng cng ty chu thit hi
nng n nht t thng t 01 v u thu thuc ETC (bnh vin). Vic cng mt thuc generic cng
thc ging nhau th thuc no r s c trng thu nh hng nng n n Imexpharm do cc
sn phm ca cng ty c cht lng cao hn. H qu l knh iu tr (ETC) ca cng ty st gim mnh,
ko theo mc st gim v doanh thu. b li khon ny Imexpharm chuyn sang m rng thm h
thng phn phi trn OTC v tng cng cc hot ng lin doanh lin kt nh hp tc vi CTCP
Dc phm Phano, nh phn phi dc phm c quyn ca Teve Pharmaceuticals.
V hot ng kinh doanh, cp nht s liu mi nht thng 11 ny doanh thu ca Imexpharm khi
sc hn hn vi 108,0 t ng, tng 27,5% so vi 11.2014. Tnh ly k 11 thng 2015, doanh thu
thun t 826,5 t ng, tng trng 8,2% so vi cng k. Ring doanh thu hng Imexpharm thc
hin 11 thng t 617,4 t ng, tng trng 8,5%; trong doanh thu t OTC chim t trng 87,3%,
tng trng 20,0%, doanh thu ETC ch chim 12,7% v gim 34,6% so vi cng k nm trc. Li
Vietnam |Stock market
Bo co cp nht ngnh
nhun trc thu 11 thng 2015 thc hin c l 109,9 t ng, t 84,5% li nhun k hoch, tng
trng 2,5% so vi 11 thng 2014. Vi cc chin lc pht trin bn vng v m rng mc tiu sang
cc sn phm mang gi tr gia tng cao th k vng chu k tng trng ca IMP s tr li sau 2,3 nm
ti.
PE IMP t 2011
20,00
18,00
16,00
14,00
12,00
10,00
8,00
6,00
4,00
2,00
0,00
12/21/2010 12/21/2011 12/21/2012 12/21/2013 12/21/2014 12/21/2015
Doanh Li Vn
EPS
M CK Tn Sn Phn ngnh thu nhun gp
2014
2014 2014 2014
PMC Pharmedic HNX Dc phm 363.5 62.3 93.3 6,677.4
DBT Dc phm Bn Tre HNX Dc phm 523.3 11.4 70.0 1,628.6
DHT Dc phm H Ty HNX Dc phm 820.1 31.5 62.8 5,015.9
DP3 Dc Phm TW3 HNX Dc phm 184.3 11.7 52.5 2,228.6
PPP PP.Pharco HNX Dc phm 107.8 5.9 45.0 1,311.1
DNM Y t Danameco HNX Dng c y t 219.7 20.1 41.7 4,820.1
LDP Dc Lm ng - Ladophar HNX Dc phm 484.3 18.6 34.0 5,470.6
MKV MEKOVET HNX Dc phm 61.2 2.4 26.9 892.2
AMV Dc-TB Y t Vit M HNX Dc phm 4.2 (9.2) 21.2 (4,339.6)
DHG Dc Hu Giang HOSE Dc phm 3,912.5 533.8 871.6 6,124.4
JVC Thit b Y t Vit Nht HOSE Thit b y t 923.1 177.8 844.4 2,105.6
DMC Dc phm DOMESCO HOSE Dc phm 1,486.1 132.3 267.1 4,953.2
IMP IMEXPHARM HOSE Dc phm 897.1 85.8 263.1 3,261.1
TRA Traphaco HOSE Dc phm 1,650.7 163.4 246.8 6,620.7
OPC Dc phm OPC HOSE Dc phm 612.2 65.7 192.9 3,405.9
SPM S.P.M CORP HOSE Dc phm 557.7 35.7 140.0 2,550.0
APC Chiu x An Ph HOSE CNghe sinh hc 97.7 25.0 120.2 2,079.9
DCL Dc phm Cu Long HOSE Dc phm 709.6 31.7 99.1 3,198.8
VMD Y Dc phm Vimedimex HOSE Dc phm 11,367.4 30.3 84.4 3,590.0
Dc - TB y t Bnh nh OTC Dc phm 1,142.0 45.4 268.6 1,690.2
Dc phm Pymepharco OTC Dc phm 1,148.6 148.1 267.6 5,534.4
Bnh vin Tim Tm c OTC Chm sc y t 428.1 52.5 155.5 3,376.2
Dc phm Mekophar OTC Dc phm 1,145.5 162.1 131.2 12,355.2
Dc phm TV.Pharm OTC Dc phm 415.3 33.2 100.8 3,293.7
Dc liu Trung ng 2 OTC Dc phm 6,087.0 27.7 95.0 2,915.8
Dc phm Vidipha OTC Dc phm 399.2 29.1 87.0 3,344.8
Dc Phm TW 1- Pharbaco OTC Dc phm 668.4 12.4 73.5 1,687.1
Vt t Y t Thanh Ha OTC Thit b y t 732.6 11.8 67.9 1,737.8
Vietnam |Stock market
Bo co cp nht ngnh
S hu
S lng CP Gi ng nc
M CK Phn ngnh Sn lu hnh ca P/E P/B EPS ROE % ROA % ngoi
AGP Dc phm UPCOM 4,355,880 30,000 0.00%
AMV Dc phm HNX 2,115,750 3,500 -1.18 0.68 -2,968 -56.02% -26.60% 11.45%
APC CN sinh hc HOSE 11,819,380 17,700 8.22 1.14 2,154 15.23% 12.26% 16.54%
BCP Dc phm UPCOM 4,040,000 8,500 0.43%
CGP Dc phm UPCOM 10,735,708 5,000 1.78%
CNC Dc phm UPCOM 9,470,357 25,600 0.52%
DBM Dc phm UPCOM 1,941,588 26,000 23.53%
DBT Dc phm HNX 7,699,808 16,300 9.32 1.12 1,748 13.75% 3.64% 0.90%
DCL Dc phm HOSE 20,118,960 23,300 6.31 0.86 3,694 11.81% 6.91% 5.86%
DDN Dc phm UPCOM 5,040,000 28,000 0.10%
DHG Dc phm HOSE 86,941,950 65,000 10.48 2.41 6,204 23.34% 16.97% 49.00%
DHT Dc phm HNX 6,281,089 35,500 8.73 1.55 4,067 16.59% 6.89% 3.56%
DMC Dc phm HOSE 26,713,797 39,000 7.57 1.41 5,154 19.31% 14.71% 49.00%
DNM Dng c y t HNX 4,377,605 28,500 10.01 1.66 2,847 15.86% 9.56% 5.18%
DPP Dc phm UPCOM 1,985,447 14,000 0.00%
DP3 Dc phm HNX 5,250,000 23,900 0.00%
IMP Dc phm HOSE 28,942,646 37,000 11.24 1.20 3,291 10.67% 8.71% 49.00%
Vietnam |Stock market
Bo co cp nht ngnh
JVC Thit b y t HOSE 112,500,171 5,800 4.52 0.34 1,283 6.73% 5.06% 38.02%
LDP Dc phm HNX 3,399,927 39,500 7.87 1.59 5,016 20.16% 7.69% 10.70%
MEF Dng c y t UPCOM 3,755,213 900 6.93%
MKV Dc phm HNX 2,689,125 9,100 9.24 0.88 985 9.81% 3.49% 3.12%
MTP Dc phm UPCOM 2,995,000 14,800 1.15%
NDP Dc phm UPCOM 5,550,000 25,500 0.00%
NDC Dc phm UPCOM 5,680,000 31,100 0.03%
OPC Dc phm HOSE 25,311,696 35,000 9.42 1.86 3,717 18.60% 14.28% 9.74%
PMC Dc phm HNX 9,332,573 44,000 6.61 2.13 6,658 33.51% 27.09% 20.15%
PPP Dc phm HNX 4,500,000 8,800 4.21 0.73 2,090 17.93% 7.96% 0.06%
SPM Dc phm HOSE 13,770,000 17,200 7.94 0.33 2,166 4.20% 2.54% 4.35%
TRA Dc phm HOSE 24,673,300 83,000 13.43 2.27 6,179 20.09% 13.90% 45.77%
VMD Dc phm HOSE 8,440,268 29,600 5.35 1.15 5,531 23.08% 0.80% 9.37%
Vietnam |Stock market
Bo co cp nht ngnh
Khuyn co
Chng ti ch s dng trong bo co ny nhng thng tin v quan im c cho l ng tin cy nht, tuy nhin chng
ti khng bo m tuyt i tnh chnh xc v y ca nhng thng tin trn. Nhng quan im c nhn trong bo co
ny c cn nhc cn thn da trn nhng ngun thng tin chng ti cho l tt nht v hp l nht trong thi im
vit bo co. Tuy nhin nhng quan im trn c th thay i bt c lc no, do chng ti khng chu trch nhim
phi thng bo cho nh u t. Ti liu ny s khng c coi l mt hnh thc cho bn hoc li ko khch hng u t
vo bt k c phiu no. Cng ty SBS cng nh cc cng ty con v ton th cn b cng nhn vin hon ton c th tham
gia u t hoc thc hin cc nghip v ngn hng u t i vi c phiu c cp trong bo co ny. SBS s khng
chu trch nhim vi bt k thng tin no khng nm trong phm vi bo co ny. Nh u t phi cn nhc k lng vic
s dng thng tin cng nhng cc d bo ti chnh trong ti liu trn, v SBS hon ton khng chu trch nhim vi bt
k khon l trc tip hoc gin tip no do s dng nhng thng tin . Ti liu ny ch nhm mc ch lu hnh trong
phm vi hp v s khng c cng b rng ri trn cc phng tin truyn thng, nghim cm bt k s sao chp v
phn phi li i vi ti liu ny.
Tng 6-7, 88 L Thng Kit Qun Hon Kim H Lu 6 - s 177-179-181 Nguyn Thi Hc, P.Phm Ng
Ni Vit Nam Lo, Qun 1,TP.HCM
in thoi: +84 (4) 3942 8076 in thoi: (08) 38 38 65 65
Fax: +84 (8) 3942 8075 Fax: (08) 38 38 64 16