INDIA RUSSIA

16th India-Russia Annual Summit (December 2016, Russia)

The main purpose of the visit was to tilt the impression that the relation has been
strained in a year when India grew closer to the United States and Russia made
overtures to Pakistan for the first time.

PM Modi said that Russia is a strong and reliable friend of India and both countries
have a truly strategic partnership.
India and Russia decided to expand cooperation across various sectors as they signed
16 pacts, including deals on joint manufacture of 226 military helicopters and
construction of 12 atomic plants with involvement of local companies in India.

The agreements included a second site for Russian six Russian nuclear reactors in
Andhra Pradesh and the manufacture of Russia's Kamov Ka-226T light helicopters under
Modi's 'Make in India' programme; negotiations were also on for India to seal the deal
on the lease of another Akula II class nuclear submarine, the acquisition of the S-400
air defence system, an order for three more Krivak III class stealth frigates, and the
FGFA.

The two sides expressed commitment to realize the target of $30 billion in the next 10
years set during the 2014 Annual Summit, up from the present $10 billion. The two
countries are also moving forward on the India and Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union
Free Trade Agreement.

Modi also underlined the need for the world to unite against terrorism without
distinction and discrimination between terrorist groups and target countries, an
apparent reference to sources of the menace like Pakistan. They also discussed a host
of global geo-political issues including situation in Syria.

Putin also conveyed Russias strong support to Indias bid for permanent membership
of the UN Security Council, saying it is a deserving and a strong candidate .

17th India-Russia Annual Summit (October 15, 2016, India)

India and Russia held a bilateral annual summit on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in
Goa.

Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed that Russia remains one of Indias leading
suppliers of advanced weapons and defence technology as India is Russias especially
privileged strategic partner and also highlighted Russias stable approach to ties
with India.
 Both sides also came strongly against terror.

India has signed a series of key defence deals under the Modi government as part of a
$100-billion upgrade of its Soviet-era military hardware, making it an attractive
proposition for arms exporters.

Russia, in a show of special and privileged strategic partnership, announced plans to

set up a joint venture to build the Kamov KA 226 helicopters in India, which will also
buy surface-to-air missile systems from its former Cold War ally, as the two tighten
their military relationship.

They also signed Inter-Governmental Agreements (IGA) for five S-400 Triumf air
defence systems and four stealth frigates. The S-400 is considered one of the most
advanced long range defence system in the world and a game changer in countering
airborne threats. The system has the capability to destroy incoming hostile aircraft,
missiles and even drones at ranges of up to 400 km. This means that Pakistani aircraft
can be tracked even when they are in their airspace soon after take-off.

The year 2017 will mark the 70th anniversary of establishment of diplomatic ties
between the two nations.

RELATIONS IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE URI ATTACKS

Russias reactions stood in sharp contrast to its reaction to the 2008 strikes by expressing
concern instead of steadfast support to India. The statements captured the changing nature
of India-Russia ties, also reflected in Moscows military relationship with Pakistan.

Although Russia condemned the terror strike in Uri but went ahead with the military exercise
with Pakistan even as India blamed Pakistan for not acting against the terror modules.

Rather, the Russian ambassador assured India not to be concerned over the military exercises
which is inIndia's interest as they will be teaching the Pakistani army how not to use army
forthe terror attacks.

Russian government think tank sources indicated that Russia may not be on the same page
with India on Pakistan, and that Russia had re-evaluated its ties with Pakistan.

As per some scholars in Russia,Pakistan is a victim of terrorism as well. It has therefore

revised the Cold War assessment of Pakistan as a supporter of the Afghan mujahideen,
highlighting that Moscow did not want to leave Pakistan alone.

The response from India in similar incidents, even though Russia-India trade has not grown to
great heights despite the encouragement of both states, has been supportive of Russian
positions and has a careful and calibrated response to all Russian actions in Chechnya,
Syria, Ukraine and elsewhere, India has supported Russia.

In this light, India has to rebuild on its strengths and common concerns with the Russians.
They have to revitalize their earlier agreement on sharing intelligence for a joint strategy on
terrorism. If India is concerned with state-sponsored terrorism from Pakistan, Russia is
concerned with the backing that states are directly or indirectly giving to terror groups in
West Asia and Central Asia. India will have to be more forthright in condemning states that on
the pretext of regime change or local geopolitics are allowing the growth of terror groups in
West Asia.

DEFENCE PARTNERSHIP WITH RUSSIA

Defence cooperationis an important pillar of theIndia-Russiastrategic partnership.It has a
historical perspective, and has been one of the foundations of the India-Russia relationship,
which had also seen a progressive change from a buyer-seller relationship to joint
partnership. But geostrategic implications of the countries have changed the scenario to some
extent.

According to Ashok Sajjanhar, India has so far been heavily dependent on Russian armaments
with more than 70 per cent of its weapons being sourced from Russia, and the Indian defence
market continues to be important to Russia. Although in absolute terms Russia is still the
largest supplier of defence equipment to India, its share in overall imports has progressively
declined. Most recently, Indias reported decision to sign the three ''foundational'' defence
Agreements with USA, viz., Logistics Support Agreement (LSA), Communications
Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA) and Basic Exchange and
Cooperation Agreement (BECA) for Geo-spatial Cooperation, has surfaced as a cause of serious
concern for Russia. There are real and perceived shifts in Indian armament policies where
Russia dominated for years. India has opened up to the U.S., France, Israel, all of whom are
gradually edging out the Russians in some sectors. The latter feels that India is virtually
entering into a military alliance with USA, which will severely restrict Russia's ability to share
sophisticated defence technology such as for Indias nuclear submarine programme with it.

However, even as India increases its indigenous defence production capacity and diversifies its
procurement sources, the militarys dependence on Russia for some critical technologies still
remains.
Many government officials assert that the geostrategic moves by Moscow whether of joint
drills with Pakistan or naval exercises with China in the South China Sea will not alter the
transactional nature of its defence relationship with New Delhi.

Moreover, with the last visit of Modi, there has been an upward movement in the relationship.
India-Russia ties reached a new landmark in nuclear energy cooperation with the dedication
of Unit 1 of the Kudankulam nuclear power project jointly inaugurated by Prime Minister
Narendra Modi and President Vladimir Putin through video conference. Both sides also agreed
to work together on the remaining stages of Kudankulam 2,3,4,5 and 6.

During Putins recent visit to India, the two nations also put up an emphatic display of deep
bilateral ties, setting aside recent discord, by concluding some visible, high-ticket, defence
deals. The import and progressive manufacture in India of KAMOV-226 helicopters, which was
discussed during Modis visit in December 2015 and that of the S400 Triumph air defence
systems, can be a game changer. Some other pending deals on which decision has been unduly
delayed because of the reported obduracy of the Ministry of Defence should also be
concluded expeditiously in a similar manner.

As per Shyam Saran, maintaining traditional India-Russia ties has become more challenging in
the wake of the Ukraine crisis of 2013 and Russias annexation of Crimea. This has had two
major consequences.
1. One, it has led to a serious deterioration in the US-Russia and the Russia-Europe
relations, reviving the flavour, if not yet the substance, of the Cold War. In this
relatively more confrontational setting, Indias relations with the US and Russia,
respectively, become more difficult to manage. As India moves to expand its security
and defence relationship with the US, concerns in Russia will increase.
2. Two, Russia has inevitably moved closer to China in order to compensate for its
worsening relations with the West. A case in point is the S-400 Triumph Air Defence
Missile System. India has contracted to buy five such systems for $6 billion. China has
concluded a deal for the same system in September 2014.

CHANGING ALIGNMENTS
South Asia has seen historic blocs from the Cold War turn on their head in recent years in the
light of growing terrorism emanating from Pakistan, India-Pak tension, Indias growth as a
major regional power and Chinas emergence as global force. This is seen most prominently
with regard to four countries India, Pakistan, Russia and China.

That a sovereign has no permanent friends is part of traditional wisdom around the world.
Nothing illustrates this more than the evolution of Russias ties with China and Pakistan. Few
countries in the non-Western world have done more damage to Russian interests.The Chinese
alignment with the West from the 1970s and the Pakistani jihad against Moscow in the 1980s
were central to the defeat of the Soviet Union in the Cold War. That was then; Russia now
believes it can play the China card in enhancing its leverage with the US, and there are also
some in Moscow that may also bet that cozying up to Pakistan would help caution India
against drawing too close to America. While another school of thought point to the
unintended consequence of pushing India into the arms of the US.

Russia-China Relations
According to Anuradha M. Chenoy, demonized by the West, Russia has become a strategic
partner of China and they have significant convergence of interests.

But also, Russia is aware that China is leveraging its economy and relationships to build a
hegemony with the US, and has its own concerns about the Chinese dominating Russian
markets, exploiting Russian resources, and not backing Russian security concerns.

China is enticing countries, including Russia, with its One Belt, One Road plan that will
develop huge new linkages and develop trade routes. Pakistan is a satellite state for China.
Russia has concerns about Central Asia vis--vis China and Pakistan.

As per Shyam Saran:

India-Russia relations have lost the strategic glue that held them together from 1960 to 1990
the shared concern over a Chinese threat. Although India-Russia relations continued to be
close and cordial but that has been more because of inertial factors rather than driven by any
fresh strategic vision.

On the political side, China has refrained from criticizing Russia on Crimea while the latter
has returned the favour by endorsing Chinas stand that the South China Sea issue should be
resolved through dialogue between interested parties and without outside interference.

Russia Pakistan Relations

Russia and Pakistan carried out joint military exercises named Druzhba-2016 with combat
troops that engaged in combat and target elimination operations in Pakistan, even in the
aftermath of the Uri attacks.

Although the two countries have carried out naval exercises in the past as well but they were
strictly counter narcotic operation drills. But, these recent drills were proper military
exercises. Russia had also signed a deal with Russia for four Mi-35 attack helicopters in the
last two years, after the lifting of sanctions on Pakistan by Russia in 2014.

These incidents need to be seen in the light of Indias cozying up to the US and the American
support to Indias fight against terrorism, entry into NSG and the UN Security Council, defence
and economic cooperation and the fact that India-US partnership changes the power dynamic
in Asia completely. US-Russia fallout has done little to pacify the situation.
As a reaction to their growing closeness, India hasconveyed its views to the Russian side that
military cooperation with Pakistan, which is a state that sponsors and practices terrorism as a
matter of state policy, is a wrong approach. It will only create further problems.

In fact, the military exercises were initially meant to be conducted in the Gilgit-Baltistan
region, but the venue was changed with due respect to Indian sensitivities. But the damage
had been done. The timing of the exercise was bad enough. It comes at a moment when India
was trying to isolate Pakistan after the Uri attacks, coping with fresh political violence inside
Kashmir, and drawing international attention to Indias claims over Gilgit-Baltistan.

India officially conveyed unhappiness over the growing Pakistan-Russia ties after both
countries held the first ever joint military exercise in Pakistans northwest. India had
expressed concern over the exercise with Pakistan during the 22nd India-Russia Inter-
Governmental Commission (IRGC) that was being held around the same time.

There are various viewpoints that explain the Russian overtures to Pakistan:

Views of Andrew Korybko:

Russialiftedits arms embargo on Pakistan in 2014and rapidly moved to enter into a

historic rapprochement with it, eager to also reap the benefits of Pakistans pivotal
role as thezipper of pan-Eurasian integrationin a 21st century increasingly defined
by infrastructure connectivity prospects and New Silk Roads.

Achieving Regional Influence: Russians are likely to be seeing this as a one-up over
Pakistan by forging a relationship with one of US old partnersPakistan, who is also a
major non-NATO ally of the US. Russia would see this as a victory over the US in
regional influence. This is, however, a clear sign of age-old complex defence and
foreign policy formulated by Russian bureaucrats.

If Russia continues to formulate its south Asia policy in relation to its competition with
the US, it risks losing one of its oldest allies, one that it cannot afford to lose at a time
when much of the West stands against the Putin regime.

Russias rising hostility with the United Statesand Europe is the zero-sum prism
through which it seesthe rest of the world and its moves in South Asia can be viewed
as a sub-set of Moscows wider global behaviour.

Against the threat from ISIS and Islamic extremism: The sense that Moscow has
officially conveyed to Delhi is that they are not in it for defence deals and
money.It is Islamist militancy and terrorism where they want to work with Pakistan.
By actively coordinating with Pakistan, Moscow believes that it should be able to halt
the radical jihadists future spillover to Central Asia. Therefore, Russia is trying to
portray its own security concerns as theraison dtrebehind the rapprochement.
 Using Pakistan card over India: The Kremlin wants to slow down the impending
downward trend, as well as leverage its influence over New Delhi, by skillfully utilizing
the Pakistan card. By engaging with Pakistan, Russia leaves New Delhi with a hard
choice: to honor its strategic commitment to Russia and make concessions or to
observe Russian-Pakistani rapprochement, which could potentially erode Indias
military advantage.

Moscow was sensitive to the India-Pakistan rivalry before; however, altering

geopolitical realities goaded Russian foreign policy into exploring new horizons. In
particular, the recent U.S.refusalto subsidize Pakistans purchase of F-16 fighter jets
may have pushed both countries farther away from each other, with Russia potentially
emerging as an alternative supplier.

Views of Anuradha M. Chenoy:

Why is Indias time-tested strategic partner engaging with Pakistan at this juncture? Is there a
shift in Russian geostrategy and linkage with China that is impacting Moscows relations with
India? Have Indias own foreign policy shifts and new relations set off a reaction in Russia? The
Russia-Pakistan joint exercises raise many questions.

Russia dependent on arms and energy exports is constantly looking for new markets and
Pakistan is a potential one. The planned exercises were an extension of this search.

The U.S. will always have a dual approach to India and Pakistan, because it needs both.
Russia, on the other hand, will not. But India has to actively ensure that and not take this
strategic partnership for granted.

Views of C. Raja Mohan:

Russias new warmth towards Pakistan may have, wittingly or unwittingly, begun to nudge
India towards a relationship with Russia that is founded in realism rather than inertia.

At the heart of the Indian perception of Russia as the most reliable international partner was
Moscows attitude towards the dispute between India and Pakistan over Jammu and Kashmir,
giving a constant support to India.But the recent participation of Russia in the joint military
exercises has changed the scenario.

Moscows reluctance to defer to Indian sensitivities this time suggests that a new phase in
India-Russia relations is finally with us. Only the sentimentalists in Delhi will be surprised at
Russias decision to redo its South Asian sums.
FUTURE OF TIES:
At a moment of great turbulence in great power relations, Russia is rightly jockeying
for position. This demands that Delhi must stop taking Moscow for granted. It must
focus instead on reconstituting the partnership with a country that will remain a
powerful force in Eurasia, on its own merits.

There is an urgent need to train and raise a new generation of Indologists in Russia.
Scholars and academics have always played a critical role in promoting cooperation
between the two countries.
Indias participation in the European Economic Union should be encouraged.
India needs to make Russia understand that expanding ties with USA are neither at the
expense of Russia nor are they in any way directed against Russia or detrimental to its
interests. Strategically they are designed to provide greater political space as well as
maneuverability for healthy relations with China.

As far as Russia is concerned, it might appear that there is some strategic shift. But
Russia has been pushed into that position. In reality, it knows that India is still its most
reliable ally. It has no conflict of interest or anxiety about India as it does about
others. India was instrumental in the construction of a multipolar international
system. This system has benefitted India and Russia, not to speak of others like China.
To retain this, India and Russia need to be active strategic and economic allies. But
both will have to make an effort for this.

Even on a personality level, the frequency and comfort level in meetings between
Modi and Obama are perceived to be higher than with Putin.

As per Ashok Sajjanhar, in the current scenario also, it would devolve upon Modi to
take charge of bilateral ties with Russia, as he has done with several other significant
partners.

Views of Shyam Saran:

The recent developments inevitably present India with a difficult and complex foreign policy
challenge. The response should not be to let Indo-Russian relations slide into indifference or
worse, mutual resentment but to maintain and wherever possible expand political,
economic and security engagement. A strong Indo-Russian relationship will give both countries
more room for maneuver in an uncertain and rapidly changing geopolitical environment.
Neither side would want to see a US-China G-2, or conversely, a major power confrontation
re-emerge. Bilateral cooperation in defence and nuclear sectors will remain important. There
are enough reasons to remain strongly invested in the relationship.