Instituto Tecnolgico de Celaya

Alumna:
Contreras Lpez Tania Estefana

Materia:
Administracin de Operaciones I

Tema: Media ARITMETICA

Especialidad:
ING. INDUSTRIAL

Fecha de entrega: 9 de Octubre 2016

 PROMEDIO MOVIL SIMPLE
Derrado Deman Pronosti lel
da co
1 420 386.25 33.75
2 380 386.25 6.25
3 400 386.25 13.75
4 360 386.25 26.25
5 380 386.25 6.25
6 410 Sse =
386.25 3987.5
23.75
7 350 Mse =
386.25 569.6428
36.25
8 390 386.25 3.7557
e= 23.86719
9 386.25
21
e= +-24

Grfica de Media Aritmetica

450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Demanda Promedio

n=2
Derrado Xi Demanda Mt x2 lel
1 =
Sse 420
4625
2 =
Mse 380
4625 400
3e = 400
68.00735 390 400 0
4 360
25 380 390 30
5e = 68
380 370 380 0
6 410 395 370 40
7 350 380 395 45
8 390 370 380 10
9 370
 3711.11 n=3
Derr Xi 111 Mt x2 lel
ado Dema
nda
1 420
2 380
3 400 400
4 360 380 400 40
5 380 380 380 0
6 410 383.33 380 30
3333
7 350 380 383.33 33.333
3333 3333
8 390 383.33 380 10
3333
9 383.33
3333
Sse =
Mse = 1855.555
56
e= 43.07615
99
e= 43

Con n=3
410
400
390
380
370
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Demanda Promedio
Mt
 n=4
Derrado Xi Demanda Mt x2 lel
1 420
2 380
3 400
4 360 390
5 380 380 390 10
6 410 387.5 380 30
7 350 375 387.5 37.5
8 390 382.5 375 15
9 382.5

Con n=4
395

390

385

380

375

370

365
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Demanda Promedio Mt

Sse = 2631.25
Mse = 877.0833
33
e= 29.61559
27
e= 29
 n=5
Derra Xi Sse
Demanda
= 1880Mt x2 lel
do Mse = 470
1 e420
= 21.67948
2 380 34
3 e400
= 22
4 360
5 380 388
6 410 386 388 22
7 350 380 386 36
8 390 378 380 10
9 378

Con n=5
390
388
386
384
382
380
378
376
374
372
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Demanda Promedio Mt

n=6
Derra Xi Mt x2 lel
do Demanda
1 420
2 380
3 400
4 360
5 380
6 410 391.6666
67
7 350 380 391.6666 41.66666
67 67
8 390 381.6666 380 10
67
 9 Sse = 381.6666
1836.11
111 67
Mse = 367.2222
22
e= 19.16304
31
e= 19

Con n=6
394
392
390
388
386
384
382
380
378
376
374
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Demanda Promedio Mt

n=7
Derra Xi Mt x2 lel
do Demanda
1 420
2 380
3 400
4 360
5 380
6 410
7 350 385.7142
86
8 390 381.4285 385.7142 4.285714
71 86 29
9 381.4285
71

Sse = 18.3673
469
 Mse = 3.061224
49
e= 1.749635
53
e= 2

n=7
387
386
385
384
383
382
381
380
379
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Demanda Promedio Mt

SUAVIZACIN EXPONENCIAL

=0.1
T Xi
Ft X2 e
Periodo Demanda
1 420 420 = 420
2 380 416 420 40 Sse = 1600
3 400 414.4 416 16 Mse = 200
14.142135
4 360 408.96 414.4 54.4 e=
62
5 380 406.064 408.96 28.96 e= -14
6 410 406.4576 406.064 3.936
7 350 400.81184 406.4576 56.4576
399.73065 10.8118
8 390 400.81184
6 4
399.73065
9
6
 =0.1
440

420

400

380

360

340

320

300
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Promedio Demanda X2

=0.2
T Periodo Xi Demanda Ft X2 e
1 420 420 = 420
2 380 412 Sse = 1600
3 400 409.6 420 20 Mse = 200
14.142135
4 360 399.68 412 52 e=
62
5 380 395.744 409.6 29.6 e= -14
6 410 398.5952 399.68 10.32
45.74
7 350 388.87616 395.744
4
8.595
8 390 389.100928 398.5952
2
9 388.87616
 =0.2
440
420
400
380
360
340
320
300
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Promedio Demanda X2

=0.3
T Periodo Xi Demanda Ft X2 e
1 420 420 = 420
2 380 408 Sse = 1600
3 400 405.6 Mse = 200
14.142135
4 360 391.92 420 60 e=
62
5 380 388.344 408 28 e= -14
6 410 394.8408 405.6 4.4
41.9
7 350 381.38856 391.92
2
1.65
8 390 383.971992 388.344
6
9 394.8408 398.101442 394.8408 0
381.38856
383.971992
 =0.3
440

420

400

380

360

340

320

300
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Promedio Demanda X2

=0.4
T Periodo Xi Demanda Ft X2 e
1 420 420 = 420
2 380 404 Sse = 1600
3 400 402.4 Mse = 200
14.142135
4 360 385.44 e=
62
5 380 383.264 420 40 e= -14
6 410 393.9584 404 6
52.
7 350 376.37504 402.4
4
4.5
8 390 381.825024 385.44
6
9 383.264
393.9584
376.37504
 =0.5
440
420
400
380
360
340
320
300
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Promedio Demanda X2

=0.5
T Periodo Xi Demanda Ft X2 e
1 420 420 = 420
2 380 400 Sse = 1600
3 400 400 Mse = 200
14.142135
4 360 380 e=
62
5 380 380 e= +-14
6 410 395 420 10
7 350 372.5 400 50
8 390 381.25 400 10
9 380 380

=0.5
440
420
400
380
360
340
320
300
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Promedio Demanda
X2

REGRESION LINEAL
 x y yi e
1 420 392 21
2 380 395 15
3 400 392 8
4 360 388 28
5 380 384 4
6 410 381 29
7 350 377 27
8 390 373 17
Resumen

Estadsticas de la
regresin
Coeficiente 0.378753
de 54
correlacin
mltiple
Coeficiente 0.143454
de 25
determinaci
n R^2
R^2 0.000696
ajustado 62
Error tpico 23.85887
74
Observacion 8
es

ANLISIS DE
VARIANZA
Grados Suma de Promedio de F Valor crtico
de cuadrado los de F
libertad s cuadrados
Regresin 1 572.0238 572.02381 1.00487975 0.35483146
1
Residuos 6 3415.476 569.246032
19
Total 7 3987.5

Coeficien Error Estadstico t Probabilida Inferior Superior

tes tpico d 95% 95%
Intercepcin 402.8571 18.59068 21.6698356 6.3051E-07 357.367369 448.3469
43 75 16
Variable X 1 - 3.681504 -1.0024369 0.35483146 -12.698794 5.317841
3.690476 71 32
2

Variable X 1 Curva de regresin ajustada

440
420
400
380 Y
Y 360 Pronstico para Y
340
320
300
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Variable X 1