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FED SURVEY
They responded to CNBCs invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were
collected on March 9-11, 2017. Participants were not required to answer every question.
April 30,
Results are also shown for identical questions in earlier surveys.
This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those
who did accept our invitation.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Raise interest
rates 100%
Lower interest
rates 0%
Keep rates
unchanged 0%
Don't know/
unsure 0%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Launch new quantitative easing
Lower interest rates
10% 10%
10%
4% 5% 5%
3% 2%
0% 0% 0%
0%
Jan 27 Mar 15 Apr 26 Jun 14 Jul 26 Aug 24 Sep 20 Nov 1 Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14
(For the 100% answering the next move will be to raise rates)
Apr 0%
May 8%
Jun 69%
Jul 4%
Aug 0%
Average:
Sep 16% July 2017
Jan 31
Oct 0% survey:
May 2017
Nov 0%
Dec 2%
Jan '18 0%
Feb 0%
After
Feb '18
0%
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.16
3.00
2.78
2.50
Average
2.50
1.97
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Nov 1 Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14
Survey Dates
+1.44 +1.46
+1.50 +1.38
+1.40
+1.33 +1.21
Somewhat +1.00
positive
+0.94
+0.87 +0.87
+0.50
Individual tax cuts
Average
Neutral +0.00
-0.50
-1.50
Very
negative -2.00
Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14
Surver dates
18%
Positive
17%
30%
Neutral
19%
45%
Negative
60%
Don't know
8%
enough to
have an
4%
opinion
Not needed
because the
economy is 48%
near full
employment
and it risks
54%
higher inflation
Needed
because the
economy is 40%
operating below
its potential and
inflation risks
39%
are minimal
13%
Don't know/
unsure
7%
Expected
Fed policy
13%
Expected
fiscal policy
49%
Both have
an equal 19%
influence
Neither
have much 15%
influence
Don't know/
unsure
4%
GSE
Q3 2018
Fannie and Freddie reform
(33% said never)
Less
likely
47%
More
likely
9%
Neither 38%
Don't
know/ 6%
unsure
Improve
growth 0%
substantially
Improve
growth 38%
somewhat
Have no
effect on 45%
growth
Reduce
economic
growth
13%
somewhat
Reduce
economic
growth
0%
substantially
Don't know/
unsure
4%
Better 38%
Worse 34%
About
the 15%
same
Don't
know/ 13%
unsure
46%
Faster
rate 43%
hikes
26%
5%
Slower
rate 20%
hikes
19%
82%
Expectations
for policy changes
72%
from the new
administration
62%
0%
Don't know/
3%
unsure
2%
56%
Too
56%
optimistic
64%
42%
Realistic 39%
32%
2%
Too
3%
pessimistic
2%
0%
Don't
know/ 3%
unsure
2%
15. Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock index will
be on ?
FED SURVEY
April 30,
December 31, 2017 December 31, 2018
2,600
2555
2,500
2480 2453
2427
2,400
2357
2354
2,300 2275
2244
2223
2249 2255
2,200 2234 2242
2200
2158
2,100
2107
2,000
1,900
1,800
Dec Jan Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar
15 15 26 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14
2016 2017
Survey Dates
3.5% 3.44%3.43%
3.37%
3.09%
2.96%
3.0%
2.90%
2.88% 2.88%
2.83%
2.5% 2.58%
2.54%
2.28%2.25%
2.24%2.26%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
Dec Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar
15 26 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14
2016 2017
Survey Dates
17. Where do you expect the fed funds target rate will
be on ?
FED SURVEY
Dec 31, 2017 Dec 31, 2018 Dec 31, 2019
April 30,
3.0%
2.73%
2.67% 2.70%
2.5%
2.25%
2.17% 2.15%
2.22%
2.07% 2.10%
2.0%
1.87%
1.81%
1.32%
1.43% 1.26%
1.22%
1.18% 1.16%
1.0% 1.09%
0.5%
0.0%
Dec Jan Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar
15 15 26 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14
2016 2017
18. At what fed funds level will the Federal Reserve stop
hiking rates in the current cycle? That is, what will be the
terminalFED
rate?SURVEY
April 30,
4.0%
3.5%
3.30%
3.20%
3.17%
3.11%
3.06%
3.16%
2.98% 2.95%
3.0% 3.04%
2.92%
2.91%
2.85% 2.79% 2.73%
2.65%
2.69%
2.65% 2.64%
2.58% 2.48%
2.5% 2.56%
2.42% 2.44%
2.29%
2.0%
Survey Dates
3.0%
2.8% +2.76%
+2.75%
2.6% +2.57%
+2.62%
+2.43% +2.51%
+2.41%
2.4%
+2.38%
+2.28%
+2.26%
+2.31%
2.2% +2.25%
+2.24%
+2.21%
+2.16%
2.0%
1.8%
Jan 26
Dec 15 Mar 15 Apr 26 Jun 14 Jul 26 Aug 24 Sep 20 Nov 1 Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14
'16
2017 +2.43% +2.31% +2.41% +2.21% +2.25% +2.26% +2.24% +2.28% +2.16% +2.57% +2.51% +2.38%
2018 +2.76% +2.75% +2.62%
+0.24
2017
+0.20
+0.39
2018
+0.39
2.64%
2.6%
2.57%
2.50%
2.38%
2.4% 2.36%
2.37%
2.24%
2.20%
2.2% 2.16%
2.12%
2.12% 2.13%
2.09%
2.07%
2.0%
2.02%
1.8%
1.6%
Dec Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar
15 26 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14
2016 2017
Survey Dates
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
European recession/
presidential election
Immigration policy
regulatory policies
Protectionist trade
Geopolitical risks
Slow job growth
Outcome of US
financial crisis
Don't know/
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
policies
unsure
Survey
Other
Tax/
U.S.
Date
Apr 30 20% 31% 20% 0% 2% 2% 11% 0%
Jun 18 15% 28% 20% 3% 3% 0% 13% 0%
Jul 30 8% 30% 22% 0% 2% 2% 10% 14% 4%
Sep 17 4% 27% 22% 2% 0% 4% 18% 7% 2%
Oct 29 8% 29% 24% 3% 3% 3% 8% 13% 0%
Dec 17 5% 32% 29% 2% 0% 2% 15% 2% 2%
Jan 28 '14 7% 21% 30% 2% 0% 0% 12% 21% 0%
Mar 18 10% 23% 26% 3% 5% 0% 5% 18% 0%
Apr 28 3% 26% 21% 3% 5% 0% 8% 18% 13% 0%
Jul 29 12% 29% 12% 6% 3% 0% 12% 12% 12% 3%
Sep 16 6% 26% 29% 6% 3% 0% 6% 11% 11% 3%
Oct 28 31% 18% 15% 3% 3% 0% 10% 8% 8% 3%
Dec 16 40% 14% 14% 3% 6% 0% 3% 14% 3% 0%
Jan 27 '15 0% 13% 9% 0% 0% 0% 6% 16% 41% 6% 16% 0%
Mar 17 6% 14% 0% 3% 6% 0% 6% 8% 28% 17% 14% 0%
April 28 3% 11% 8% 3% 0% 0% 6% 11% 28% 8% 19% 3%
Jun 16 3% 17% 3% 0% 0% 0% 14% 25% 22% 6% 11% 0%
Jul 28 6% 21% 9% 0% 0% 0% 12% 6% 29% 9% 9% 0%
Sept 16 0% 16% 2% 0% 4% 0% 0% 8% 45% 8% 14% 2%
Oct 27 0% 8% 5% 3% 8% 0% 8% 13% 41% 10% 5% 0%
Dec 15 0% 10% 5% 0% 0% 0% 8% 10% 44% 5% 3% 15% 0%
Jan 26 '16 0% 10% 5% 0% 3% 0% 0% 5% 44% 8% 0% 23% 3%
Mar 15 5% 21% 3% 0% 0% 0% 5% 5% 33% 5% 0% 3% 21% 0%
Apr 26 0% 22% 2% 2% 2% 0% 0% 7% 36% 9% 0% 7% 11% 2%
Jun 14 0% 28% 5% 3% 0% 0% 3% 0% 28% 8% 0% 5% 13% 10% 0%
Jul 26 2% 20% 7% 2% 2% 0% 2% 10% 22% 7% 0% 7% 7% 7% 2%
Aug 24 3% 19% 3% 3% 0% 0% 3% 3% 31% 3% 3% 6% 14% 11% 0%
Sep 20 0% 16% 11% 3% 0% 0% 0% 3% 30% 8% 5% 5% 8% 11% 0%
Nov 1 3% 27% 8% 0% 3% 0% 8% 3% 32% 3% 0% 0% 5% 8% 0%
Dec 13 5% 9% 2% 7% 0% 0% 7% 7% 19% 0% 2% 7% 28% 5% 2%
Jan 31 '17 0% 5% 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% 3% 10% 15% 0% 0% 0% 51% 10% 0% 0%
Mar 14 0% 7% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 7% 4% 7% 0% 2% 4% 47% 4% 13% 0%
36.1%
35%
34.0%
30%
28.5% 28.8%
26.0%
25.9%
25.3%
25.5%
25% 24.4%
23.5%
22.9% 24.1%
23.2%
22.1%
22.2%
20.6% 21.6%
20.3% 20.4% 21.1%
20%
18.2% 18.4% 18.5%
19.1% 17.3% 18.6% 18.1%
16.9% 16.9%
17.6% 16.2% 16.4% 17.4%
15.1%
16.2%
15% 15.1% 15.2%
15.3% 15.0%
15.2%
14.6% 14.7%
13.6%
13.0%
10%
Mar 16
Mar 19
Mar 18
Mar 17
Mar 15
Mar 14
Jan 28 '14
Jan 27 '15
Jan 23, '12
April 28
Jan 15 '16
Jan 31 '17
Oct 31
Oct 29
Oct 28
Dec 16
Oct 27
Dec 15
Dec 11
Dec 17
Dec 13
Sept 16
Aug 24
Jul 30
Jun 14
Sep 6
Nov 1
Aug 11, '11
Jul 31
Jun 18
Jul 29
Jun 16
Jul 28
Jul 26
Sep 19
Sep 12
Sep 16
Sep 20
Apr 24
Apr 30
Apr 28
Jan 26
Apr 26
FED SURVEY
April 30,
Other
22%
Currencies
0%
Fixed Income Economics
11% 51%
Equities
16%
Comments: