2014 4 No4 2014

134 TAIWAN ESEACH JOUNAL General No134

19912008

1
2

1 361005 2

1 2


D618 A 10021590 2014 04001807

1981

18


1 2

77
10% 36
36
15 20% 3
2001 46%2002 3
37. 2% 2003 1 TVBS 35%
3
19912008 77
14. 3196% 2006 2008 8 7
13. 7250%
2 300 345

19


77

1. 2009

2.

2007 TVBS
4 72. 2% 12. 8% 14. 9%
TVBS 6

55%
21% TVBS
23%

20


53%
21% 26%

2008 4
4
78. 63%
91. 8%

5

6

60

60


2 300 13

21
 19912008

1 1991 1 7. 7% 74. 1% 18. 3% 1067
2 1991 8 8. 0% 53. 0% 39. 0% 879
3 1992 6 4. 4% 68. 5% 27. 1%
4 1993 1 9. 1% 78. 9% 12. 0% 1067
5 1993 8 5. 2% 80. 3% 14. 1% 1067
6 1993 9 6. 1% 68. 8% 24. 9% 750
7 1993 10 4. 7% 78. 8% 16. 5% 1067
8 1993 10 3. 3% 91. 7% 5. 1% 516
9 1994 2 4. 1% 73. 8% 22. 2% 1600
10 1995 3 7. 8% 84. 5% 7. 7% 1067
11 1995 7 3. 5% 77. 7% 18. 7% 1621
12 1996 3 3. 9% 71. 5% 24. 6% 1125
13 1996 12 14. 0% 54. 0% 32. 0% 1189
14 1997 2 6. 2% 74. 5% 19. 3% 1610
15 1997 5 12. 9% 60. 9% 26. 2% 1084
16 1997 7 21. 0% 62. 0% 17. 0% 949
17 1998 4 8. 5% 81. 2% 10. 3% 1067
18 1998 5 9. 9% 76. 7% 13. 4% 1122
19 1998 7 19. 0% 59. 0% 21. 0% 938
20 1998 9 6. 3% 73. 0% 20. 7% 1078
21 1998 10 8. 7% 76. 4% 14. 9% 1107
22 1999 3 9. 1% 72. 9% 18. 0% 1067
23 1999 4 17. 6% 64. 9% 1189
24 1999 5 4. 0% 77. 5% 18. 5% 3343
25 1999 6 16. 6% 67. 6% 15. 8% 1024
26 1999 7 25. 4% 54. 1% 20. 5% 995
27 1999 8 10. 4% 87. 2% 2. 3% 1067
28 1999 9 20. 4% 58. 1% 21. 5% 1065
29 1999 10 8. 5% 75. 0% 16. 5% 1119
30 1999 12 13. 0% 59. 0% 28. 0% 811
31 2000 2 9. 8% 78. 8% 11. 4% 1067
32 2000 4 9. 3% 74. 3% 16. 4% 1085
33 2000 5 12. 2% 83. 7% 4. 1% 1067
34 2001 3 16. 1% 73. 9% 10. 0% 1077

35 2001 4 17. 8% 59. 8% 22. 4% 1080

36 2001 6 31. 0% 46. 0% TVBS 940
37 2001 6 10. 6% 75. 2% 1069
38 2001 6 29. 0% 57. 0% 14. 0% 746
39 2001 6 33. 0% 51. 0% 1035
40 2001 7 13. 3% 70. 4% 1100

22




41 2001 7 47. 5% 39. 4% 13. 1% 1000
42 2001 8 27. 8% 56. 9% 15. 3% 1046
43 2001 10 32. 5% 61. 1% open
44 2001 10 20. 0% 60. 0% 20. 0% 705
45 2001 10 28. 0% 54. 9% 17. 1% 1120
46 2001 11 8. 6% 72. 1% 19. 3% 1076
47 2002 2 9. 4% 70. 7% 20. 0% 1081
48 2002 3 37. 2% 37. 5% 1083
49 2002 4 10. 4% 69. 9% 19. 6% 1091
50 2002 5 32. 6% 44. 1% 23. 3% 1067
51 2002 7 10. 8% 70. 2% 19. 0% 1091
52 2002 8 24. 0% 57. 0% 855
53 2002 12 9. 1% 72. 5% 18. 4% e 1076
54 2003 1 35. 0% 52. 0% 13. 0% TVBS 1023
55 2003 5 10. 3% 72. 6% 17. 0% 1082
56 2003 8 8. 3% 74. 9% 16. 7% 1149
57 2003 10 17. 0% 71. 4% 1171
58 2003 11 7. 4% 71. 4% 21. 2% 1100
59 2004 3 11. 8% 80. 7% 7. 5% 1067
60 2004 4 8. 3% 80. 8% 10. 8% 1083
61 2004 7 9. 4% 73. 6% 17. 0% 1153
62 2004 9 12. 7% 81. 4% 5. 9% 1067
63 2004 12 12. 9% 75. 4% 11. 7% 1067
64 2005 5 10. 9% 70. 8% 18. 3% 1084
65 2005 8 11. 4% 72. 6% 16. 0% 1096
66 2005 11 10. 4% 78. 3% 11. 3% 1102
67 2006 3 10. 0% 75. 4% 14. 6% 20 1088
68 2006 9 13. 3% 76. 3% 10. 4% 20 1068
69 2006 12 14. 6% 73. 0% 12. 4% 20 1073
70 2007 4 12. 8% 72. 2% 14. 9% 20 1072
71 2007 6 21% 53% 26% TVBS 20 953
72 2007 6 23% 55% 21% TVBS 20 953
73 2007 8 14. 8% 67. 8% 17. 4% 20 1095

74 2007 12 17. 6% 71. 2% 11. 2% 2069 1067


75 2008 3 13. 2% 81. 7% 5. 1%

76 2008 3 7. 9% 88. 3% 3. 8% 20
77 2008 8 8. 1% 81. 8% 10. 1% 20 1094

2008

23

1 2007 6 27 http / / www chinareviewnews com /
doc /1003 /9 /7 /6 /100397613html coluid = 3kindid = 15docid = 100397613mdate = 0911123624
2 1998 7 23 http / / wwwmacgovtw / ctasp xItem =
45564CtNode = 6075mp = 1
3 2008
2008
4 2008 12 1921
91. 8%

2008 10 1012
78. 63%
36. 17%
2008 8 2224
82. 6%
34. 4% 22. 4%
2008 3 2325
91. 1%
43. 5% 20%
23. 1%6%17. 1%
12. 2%1. 7%10. 5%
http / / wwwmacgovtw /
5 1991 2005


6 1992 8 1 1949

http / / macgovtw / big5 / mlpolicy / mlp2_3htm

A Study of the Possible Existence of One CountryTwo Systemsin Taiwan

Based on the Interpretation of 1991 2008 Polls in Taiwan

Shao Zhonghai

Abstract It is likely to make a wrong judgment if we conclude the possible existence of one countrytwo systemsin
Taiwan just by reading the cross-Strait official documents or their representative talks In factwhether a model can be applica-
ble mainly depends not on its authorities but on its public poll that proves to be the biggest affecting factor Thereforebased on
the years of polls conducted in Taiwan about whether people accept the policy of one countrytwo systemsthis article
makes an in-depth analysis of the figures and the contents of the questionnaire so as to gain a clear understanding of the possible
usability of the policy for Taiwan by the polls' figures and the way to observe whether the policy has its space of development in
Taiwan
Key Words one countrytwo systemsTaiwan's poll about one countrytwo systemsBeijing's policy toward Tai-
wanTaipei's mainland policy

24