Appendix Three

Risk Matrix, Consequence And Likelihood Tables

Risk Matrix

The following risk matrix is used in this document, however there are several
variations on this matrix that can be found in the literature. It does not matter
which matrix you use as long as you consistently use the same matrix.

CONSEQUENCE
LIKELIHOOD Insignificant Minor (2) Moderate (3) Major (4) Extreme (5)
(1)
Rare (1) Low Low Low Low Low
Unlikely (2) Low Low Low Medium Medium
Possible (3) Low Low Medium Medium Medium
Likely (4) Low Medium Medium High High
Almost certain Low Medium Medium High Extreme
(5)

Likelihood Table

The following can be used as a guide for determining likelihood. However this tool
has limitations as likelihood and frequency of events tend to vary between
disciplines and functional areas.

Level Likelihood Expected or actual frequency experienced

1 Rare May only occur in exceptional circumstances; simple process; no
previous incidence of non-compliance
2 Unlikely Could occur at some time; less than 25% chance of occurring; non-
complex process &/or existence of checks and balances
3 Possible Might occur at some time; 25 50% chance of occurring; previous
audits/reports indicate non-compliance; complex process with extensive
checks & balances; impacting factors outside control of organisation
4 Likely Will probably occur in most circumstances; 50-75% chance of
occurring; complex process with some checks & balances; impacting
factors outside control of organisation
5 Almost Can be expected to occur in most circumstances; more than 75%
chance of occurring; complex process with minimal checks & balances;
certain
impacting factors outside control of organisation
 Appendix Three
Consequence Table

The following is a guide to determining consequence. The applicability of the

operational definitions of each category of consequence will vary in different
Community Health Service and program areas and thus is recommended as a
guide only.

Level & Health Critical Organizational Reputation Non-compliance

descriptor Impacts services outcomes/ and image per
interruption objectives issue
Insignificant First aid or No material Little impact Non-headline Innocent
(1) equivalent disruption exposure, not procedural breach;
only at fault; no evidence of good
impact faith; little impact
Minor Routine Short term Inconvenient Non-headline Breach;
(2) medical temporary delays exposure, clear objection/complaint
attention suspension fault settled lodged; minor
required backlog quickly; harm with
(up to 2 cleared < 1 negligible investigation
wks day impact
incapacity)
Moderate Increased Medium term Material Repeated non- Negligent breach;
(3) level temporary delays; headline lack of good faith
medical suspension marginal exposure; slow evident;
attention (2 backlog under- resolution; performance
wks to 3 cleared by achievement of Ministerial review initiated
mths additional target enquiry/briefing
incapacity) resources performance
Major Severe Prolonged Significant Headline Deliberate breach
(4) health crisis suspension delays; profile; or gross
(incapacity of work performance repeated negligence; formal
beyond 3 additional significantly exposure; at investigation;
mths) resources under target fault or disciplinary action;
required; unresolved ministerial
performance complexities; involvement
affected ministerial
involvement
Catastrophic Multiple Indeterminate Non Maximum high Serious, wilful
(5) severe prolonged achievement of level headline breach; criminal
health suspension objective/ exposure; negligence or act;
crises/injury of work; non outcome; Ministerial prosecution;
or death performance performance censure; loss dismissal;
failure of credibility ministerial censure