Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Trump-Xi Informal Summit
Carlyle A. Thayer
April 9, 2017

[client name deleted]

Q1. What is your assessment of the results of the Trump-Xi Jinping informal meeting?
Is there any breakthrough in talks between them? What will be the relations between
the two countries in the future?
ANSWER: Initially China insisted on an informal summit rather than a meeting with
President Trump at The White House. This was in order to avoid having to issue a joint
statement that committed both parties to specific actions. The meeting at Mar-a-Lago
served the agenda of both presidents. Trump wanted the meeting to impress his
domestic support base that he was dealing with trade and other China-related issues
he raised during the campaign. Xi wanted the meeting because China wants equal
billing with the U.S. in the eyes of the world community and Chinese people.
Q2. Do you know whether they discussed and reached any consensus in the issues of
North Koreas nuclear program, the South China Sea, or Taiwan?
ANSWER: There has not been any detailed read out by The White House on the
meeting at this time. It is clear the two leaders agreed to start talks within 100 days
on trade and economic issues. This takes the heat out of the U.S. trade imbalance as
China can offer some concessions and Trump can take credit for making a deal. Trump
agreed to visit China next year.
North Korea was obviously discussed. Trump and Xi are poles apart on key issues but
they do agree on sanctions against North Korea to halt nuclear proliferation. Neither
China nor the US wants North Korea to develop nuclear weapons and the
intercontinental delivery systems that go with such weapons. China will not topple the
Kim Jong-un regime with tougher economic sanctions because it does not want to pick
up the pieces of a collapsed North Korea. And China does not want to see a unified
Korea emerge with the South in command and the U.S. as a treaty ally of a unified
Korea. Xi strenuously opposes THAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defence) system
while Trump is committed to both South Korea and Japan to provide defences against
North Korean ballistic missiles.
If the South China Sea issue was discussed both sides would have presented their
views and agreed to disagree. Since there was no joint statement their differences
could be papered over. Xis gambit is to draw Trump into cooperation on bilateral
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economic issues as well as global issues and by so doing keep the South China Sea as
a core Chinese interest of no consequence to the United States.
On Taiwan, if it came up, Trump would have declared his support for the One China
policy. Here again both sides have different views on US arms sales to Taiwan but
neither is likely to push this issue at this stage.
Q3. Vietnamese local media, as well as some foreign observers, have provided
different interpretations for Trumps attack on Syria from the official reasons issued
by The White House. What is your assessment?
ANSWER: President Trump ordered the Tomahawk cruise missile attack for the
reasons he gave Syrias use of chemical weapons weapons of mass destruction
are a threat to both U.S. allies in the Middle East and to the national interests of the
United State. Great care was taken to attack the Syrian support system that delivered
sarin gas and to minimize casualties, both Syrian and Russian. The prime reason for
these attacks was to send a message to Syria and any other state or non-state party
that the use of chemical weapons will not be tolerated and will invite a U.S. response.
But it must have been blindingly obvious to Trumps national security advisers that the
cruise missile attacks would send a message to North Korea and China about Trumps
mettle. As noted by Secretary Tillerson, the era of U.S. strategic patience is over and
the U.S., which would like to work with China, will act unilaterally if need be.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Trump-Xi Informal Summit, Thayer

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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
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