Professional Documents
Culture Documents
May 2, 2017
These survey results represent the opinions of 43 of the nations top money managers,
investment strategists, and professional economists.
FED SURVEY
They responded to CNBCs invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were
collected on April 27-29, 2017. Participants were not required to answer every question.
April 30,
Results are also shown for identical questions in earlier surveys.
This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those
who did accept our invitation.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Raise interest
rates 2%
Lower interest
rates 0%
Keep rates
unchanged 98%
Don't know/
unsure 0%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Launch new quantitative easing
Lower interest rates
10% 10%
10%
4% 5% 5%
3% 2%
0% 0% 0% 0%
0%
Jan 27Mar 15Apr 26 Jun 14 Jul 26 Aug 24Sep 20 Nov 1 Dec 13Jan 31Mar 14 May 2
(For the 100% answering the next move will be to raise rates)
Jun 65%
Jul 9%
Aug 2%
Sep 21%
Oct 2%
Average:
Nov 0% July 2017
Mar 14
Dec 0% survey:
July 2017
Jan '18 0%
Jan 31
survey:
Feb 0%
May 2017
Mar 0%
Apr 0%
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.16
2.98
3.00
2.78
2.50
Average
2.50
1.97
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Nov 1 Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14 May 2
Survey Dates
4. For its first 100 days, how do you grade the Trump
administration's ...?
FED SURVEY
(Grade conversion: F=0, D=1, C=2, B=3, A=4)
April 30,
0 1 2 3 4
Overall
performance
1.98 (C)
Economic
ideas
2.41 (C+)
Execution
of its
economic
1.63 (C-)
ideas
Comments:
FEDbut
Its early days, SURVEY
so far he's not exactly lived up to the rhetoric of his
supposedly great deal making skills.
April 30,
It's much too early to declare Trump a success or a failure.
Lots of talk but little action. Bluster doesn't replace realistic policymaking
and they are seeing that Congress doesn't bend to the president's whims
and fancies.
Much bluster, mixed delivery.
So far Trump has broken and kept all the right promises.
Starting to be afraid that the massive changes that are being proposed are
going to hurt the prospects for economic growth by postponing the public's
spending decisions. The changes they are proposing are simply too big.
For the macro economy, only small changes are recommended, otherwise
the economic actors on the stage could become frightened and simply shut
down all activity.
The president is certainly learning that government is not like business.
The media has been overly critical thus far. Deregulation remains the
most likely area of progress, and this is proceeding on schedule.
Legislative opportunities were always limited given uniform opposition
from Democrats and limited party-allegiances to most Republicans.
The release of the Trump tax plan shows a commitment to brevity which
has eluded lawmakers of late.
The speed is commendable.
They are chock full of pro-business and pro-consumer ideas.
We now can clearly see that political inexperience matters .
Need to get taxes cut and regulations slashed. This should be a no-
brainer.
Performance is always a bargained affair. It is never up to just the
president. His ideas are still good, controversial and a change is needed.
He is having impact even without getting what he wants. Execution has
been mixed but that's not surprising given what he is trying to do.
Avg. forecast
Mar 14 survey May 2 survey
Q3 2017 Q4 2017
Health care reform
(4% said never) (12% said never)
Q4 2017 X4 2017
Tax cuts (0% said never) (0% said never)
+1.44 +1.46
+1.50 +1.38 +1.36
+1.40
+1.33
+1.21 +1.24
Somewhat +1.00
positive
+0.94
+0.87 +0.87
+0.50 +0.62
Individual tax cuts
Average
Neutral +0.00
-0.50
-0.81
-0.96 Trade policies -0.96
Somewhat
-1.00
negative
-1.23
-1.50
Very
negative -2.00
Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14 May 2
Survey dates
Decreased
it a lot 0%
(-2)
Average:
Decreased it
somewhat 2% 0.69
(-1)
No
effect 38%
(0)
Increased
it somewhat 48%
(+1)
Increased
it a lot 12%
(+2)
+0.85
Overall growth
+0.81
+0.55
Employment
+0.60
+1.38
Deficits
+1.36
+1.05
Inflation
+0.79
+0.82
Stocks
+0.79
+1.25
Bond yields
+0.93
Decrease 0%
it a lot
(-2) 0%
Averages:
Economic
Decrease it 2% growth:
somewhat +1.00
(-1) 2%
The deficit:
+1.38
No 12%
effect
(0) 7%
Increase 69%
it somewhat
(+1) 40%
Increase 17%
it a lot
(+2) 50%
18%
Solid economic
fundamentals, 26%
including a better
corporate 36%
profit outlook
50%
82%
Expectations
for policy changes 72%
from the new
62%
administration
48%
0%
Don't know/ 3%
unsure
2%
2%
56%
Too 56%
optimistic 64%
62%
42%
39%
Realistic
32%
31%
2%
Too 3%
pessimistic 2%
2%
0%
Don't 3%
know/
unsure 2%
5%
12. Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock index will
be on ?
FED SURVEY
April 30,
December 31, 2017 December 31, 2018
2,700
2,600
2555
2564
2,500
2480 2453
2427
2,400
2409
2357
2354
2,300 2275
2244
2223
2249 2255
2,200 2234 2242
2200
2158
2,100
2107
2,000
1,900
1,800
Dec Jan Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May
15 15 26 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14 2
2016 2017
Survey Dates
3.44% 3.43%
3.5%
3.37%
3.22%
3.09%
2.96%
3.0% 2.88%
2.90%
2.88%
2.83%
2.54% 2.74%
2.5% 2.58%
2.26% 2.28%
2.24% 2.25%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
Dec Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May 2
15 26 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14
2016 2017
Survey Dates
14. Where do you expect the fed funds target rate will
be on ?
FED SURVEY
Dec 31, 2017 Dec 31, 2018 Dec 31, 2019
April 30,
3.0%
2.73%
2.67% 2.70% 2.68%
2.5%
2.25%
2.17% 2.19%
2.22% 2.15%
2.07% 2.10%
2.0%
1.87%
1.81%
1.32%
1.43% 1.26%
1.22%
1.18% 1.16%
1.0% 1.09%
0.5%
0.0%
Dec Jan Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May
15 15 26 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14 2
2016 2017
15. At what fed funds level will the Federal Reserve stop
hiking rates in the current cycle? That is, what will be the
terminalFED
rate?SURVEY
April 30,
4.0%
3.5%
3.30%
3.20%
3.17%
3.11%
3.06%
3.16%
2.98% 2.95%
3.0% 3.04% 2.94%
2.92%
2.91%
2.85%2.79% 2.73%
2.65%
2.69%
2.65% 2.64%
2.58% 2.48%
2.5% 2.56%
2.42% 2.44%
2.29%
2.0%
Sep 16
Sept 16
Sep 20
Oct 28
Mar 17
Jun 16
Mar 15
Jul 28
Oct 27
Jun 14
Mar 14
Jul 26
Apr 28
Apr 26
Aug 20
Aug 25
Aug 24
Dec 13
Dec 16
Dec 15
Nov 1
Jan 27, '15
Jan 26 '16
Jan 31 '17
May 2
Survey Dates
2.8% +2.76%
+2.75%
2.6% +2.57%
+2.62%
+2.58%
+2.43% +2.51%
+2.41%
2.4%
+2.38%
+2.28%
+2.26%
+2.31%
2.0%
1.8%
Jan 26
Dec 15 Mar 15 Apr 26 Jun 14 Jul 26 Aug 24 Sep 20 Nov 1 Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14 May 2
'16
2017 +2.43% +2.31% +2.41% +2.21% +2.25% +2.26% +2.24% +2.28% +2.16% +2.57% +2.51% +2.38% +2.24%
2018 +2.76% +2.75% +2.62% +2.58%
+0.24
2017 +0.20
+0.12
+0.39
2018 +0.39
+0.35
2.64%
2.6%
2.57%
2.50%
2.38%
2.4% 2.36% 2.44%
2.37%
2.24%
2.20%
2.2% 2.16% 2.23%
2.12%
2.12% 2.13%
2.09%
2.07%
2.0%
2.02%
1.8%
1.6%
Dec Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May 2
15 26 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14
2016 2017
Survey Dates
MayApril
'17 30,
0%
Jun 8%
Jul 0%
Aug 0%
Sep 5%
Oct 5%
Nov 0%
Dec 18%
Jan '18 35%
Feb 3%
Mar 10%
Apr 3% Average:
May 0%
January
Jun 10%
2018
Jul 0%
Aug 0%
Sep 0%
Oct 0%
Nov 0%
Dec 3%
Jan '19 0%
Feb 0%
Mar 0%
Apr 0%
May '19 or later 3%
Never 0%
50 0%
75 3%
100 6%
125 3%
150 0% Average:
175 3%
$305
200 21% billion
225 0%
250 24%
275 0%
300 9%
325 0%
350 0%
375 3%
400 0%
425 0%
450 0%
475 0%
500 15%
Yes 43%
No 43%
Don't know/
unsure
15%
Stop all
at once
26%
Taper 72%
Don't know/
unsure
3%
Stop all
at once
15%
Taper 79%
Don't know/
unsure
5%
FED10%SURVEY
0% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
April 30,
Yes 74%
No 13%
Don't know/
unsure
13%
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
European recession/
presidential election
Immigration policy
regulatory policies
Outcome of US
financial crisis
Don't know/
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
unsure
Other
Tax/
U.S.
Survey
Date
Apr 30 20 31 20 0 2 2 11 0
Jun 18 15 28 20 3 3 0 13 0
Jul 30 8 30 22 0 2 2 10 14 4
Sep 17 4 27 22 2 0 4 18 7 2
Oct 29 8 29 24 3 3 3 8 13 0
Dec 17 5 32 29 2 0 2 15 2 2
Jan 28
'14 7 21 30 2 0 0 12 21 0
Mar 18 10 23 26 3 5 0 5 18 0
Apr 28 3 26 21 3 5 0 8 18 13 0
Jul 29 12 29 12 6 3 0 12 12 12 3
Sep 16 6 26 29 6 3 0 6 11 11 3
Oct 28 31 18 15 3 3 0 10 8 8 3
Dec 16 40 14 14 3 6 0 3 14 3 0
Jan 27
'15 0 13 9 0 0 0 6 16 41 6 16 0
Mar 17 6 14 0 3 6 0 6 8 28 17 14 0
April 28 3 11 8 3 0 0 6 11 28 8 19 3
Jun 16 3 17 3 0 0 0 14 25 22 6 11 0
Jul 28 6 21 9 0 0 0 12 6 29 9 9 0
Sept 16 0 16 2 0 4 0 0 8 45 8 14 2
Oct 27 0 8 5 3 8 0 8 13 41 10 5 0
Dec 15 0 10 5 0 0 0 8 10 44 5 3 15 0
Jan 26
'16 0 10 5 0 3 0 0 5 44 8 0 23 3
Mar 15 5 21 3 0 0 0 5 5 33 5 0 3 21 0
Apr 26 0 22 2 2 2 0 0 7 36 9 0 7 11 2
Jun 14 0 28 5 3 0 0 3 0 28 8 0 5 13 10 0
Nov 1
Jul 26
May 2
Jan 31
Mar 14
Dec 13
Sep 20
Aug 24
European recession/
Page 29 of 37
financial crisis
0
0
0
5
3
0
3
2
Tax/
regulatory policies
27
16
19
20
8
7
5
9
Slow job growth
3
2
3
2
8
11
3
7
Inflation
3
2
3
7
0
3
3
2
April 30,
Deflation
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
2 Debt ceiling
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
May 2, 2017
Deficits
0
0
0
Rise in interest rates
5
7
3
7
8
0
3
2
Geopolitical risks
24
4
10
7
3
3
3
10
5
7
15
19
32
30
31
22
Immigration policy
5
4
0
Outcome of US
presidential election
7
0
5
6
7
5
8
7
Trump's temperament
8
4
10
Other
13
13
0
5
8
11
11
7
Don't know/
unsure
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
2
FED SURVEY
May 2, 2017
36.1%
35%
34.0%
30%
28.5% 28.8%
26.0%
25.9%
25.3%
25.5%
25% 24.4%
23.5%
22.9% 24.1%
23.2%
22.1%
22.2%
20.6% 21.6%
20.3% 20.4% 21.1%
20%
18.2% 18.4% 18.5%
19.1% 17.3% 18.6% 18.1%
16.9% 16.9%
17.6% 16.2% 16.4% 17.4% 16.4%
15.1%
16.2%
15% 15.1% 15.2%
15.3% 15.0%
15.2%
14.6% 14.7%
13.6%
13.0%
10%
Mar 16
Mar 19
Mar 18
Mar 17
Mar 15
Mar 14
Jan 28 '14
Jan 27 '15
Jan 15 '16
Jan 31 '17
Jan 23, '12
April 28
Oct 31
Oct 29
Oct 28
Oct 27
Dec 11
Dec 17
Dec 16
Dec 15
Nov 1
Dec 13
Sept 16
Aug 24
May 2
Sep 6
Jul 31
Aug 11, '11
Jun 18
Jul 30
Jul 29
Jun 16
Jul 28
Jun 14
Jul 26
Sep 19
Sep 12
Sep 16
Sep 20
Apr 24
Apr 30
Apr 28
Jan 26
Apr 26
FED SURVEY
April 30,
Other
23%
Currencies
0%
Fixed Income Economics
13% 53%
Equities
13%
Comments: