E370

1/5/2017
Distribution of the
sample proportion
Week 09 Part 1
p is the sample proportion.

when X is a binomial with n trials

and n = the number of trials

p is a transformation of a binomial.
It is the binomial turned into a continuous
variable.
Since the binomial was a random variable, so
is p.

What is a sample proportion?

 What is the expected value of p? Remember,
X~B(n, ).

The expected value of p

 . . . and the expected variance of p? Remember, X~B(n, ).

. . .the expected variance?

 We need to go back to the binomial to figure
this out. . .
How do we tell if a binomial is sufficiently
symmetric to do others things?
IF n* > 5 AND n*(1-) > 5, the binomial is
sufficiently symmetric.
What do we want to do? Decide how the
distribution of the sample proportion is shaped.
If the original binomial is sufficiently symmetric,
then p is normally distributed.

What about the shape?

 IF n* > 5 AND n*(1-) > 5,

Its utility distribution is the Standard Normal.

Why bother with the proportion?
It is the binomial transformed; different but unchanged.
It makes a discrete distribution into a continuous one.
We are able to invert continuous variables, which we
cant do with discrete binomials.

Bottom line . . .
A recent Gallup poll talked with 500 adult
Americans and reported that 20% of them said
they believe in reincarnation. Describe the
distribution of the sample proportion for
samples of this size.

Test: .
. .
~ . , .

An example of its use

 What is the probability that in a random sample
of 500 adult Americans, more than 22%
believe in reincarnation?

=1- NORM.DIST(0.22, 0.20, 0.0179, 1)=0.1319

Example continued . . .