E370

11/1/2014
Inferential Methods:
Hypothesis Testing Basics
Week 11, Part 1
 Typically,
nurses at VA hospitals work one of 3
possible daily shifts. At a VA hospital in
Massachusetts, over the period from September,
1994 through February, 1996, a span of 547
days, nurses worked a total of 1641 shifts. Of
those 1641, 74 shifts had at least one patient
death. Calculate the limits over which we
would expect to find 99% of sample
proportions of shifts on which at least one
death occurs, for samples of 257 shifts.

An application
 What we know:
N=1641 n=257 =
What we want: The interval over which we would expect to
find 99% of the sample proportion of shifts with at least
one death for samples of 257.
Alpha? Point Estimate

= 0.01 = = = .

The Random Variable?

. .
~ . , = .

Margin of error, e
()
= =NORM.S.INV(0.995)= 2.576

What we know
Picture
 = = . . = .

The 99% confidence interval:

0.0451 0.0333
OR
[0.0118, 0.0784]

The interval
The interval
 One sample of 257 shifts recorded 40 shifts
with at least one patient death. Where does
this value fall with respect to the confidence
interval just calculated?
 15.6% is 8.55 standard deviations above the
expected value of 4.5%.

Did we do something wrong?!?*!?

No, but Kristen Gilbert did . . .

Angel of Death Serial Killer
Killed her victims with an overdose of epinephrine

Huh?
 Prosecutors argued that she wanted to
attract attention, especially from her lover, a
hospital security guard.
Her defense attorney argued reasonable
doubt because of the lack of direct
evidence, but the jury found the statistical
argument compelling.
Gilbert may have been responsible for
eighty or more deaths and over three
hundred medical emergencies.

Kristen Gilbert was convicted on

March 14, 2001
 We just performed a hypothesis test.
Stated a claim or assumption.

Drew a sample for evidence.

Used the distribution of the statistic to judge

if the claim is too far away from the evidence
to be believable.

A Hypothesis Test
 An analogy:

US Criminal Courts assume a defendant is

innocent.

The prosecution and defense present evidence on

which basis jurors decide the truth of the
assumption.

Hypothesis Testing
They come in pairs.
Null,designated H0
Alternative, designated H1

The NULL is always that nothing besides

randomness is influencing the situation.

The ALTERNATIVE is that something other

than randomness is influencing the
situation.

Rules for Hypotheses

 Each hypothesis in the pair is constructed of a
parameter, a value and a sign that indicates the
relationship between the parameter and the
value. For example, = 5
TheNULL always includes the comparison
value or circumstance.
The
ALTERNATIVE includes whatever the null
does not. In the example above, the alternative
would be 5.

Hypotheses
 atwo-tailed test
H0 uses =, a simple null

H1 uses
is always
divided in half

Two tailed tests

 one-tailed test Right Tail
H0 uses <, a composite null

H1 uses >
is NEVER
divided in half.
All of is in the
right tail.

One tailed tests Right Tail

 one-tailed test Left Tail
H0 uses >, a composite null

H1 uses <
is NEVER
divided in half.
All of is in the
left tail.

One tailed tests Left Tail

 Thehypotheses we implicitly used when we
looked at the case of deaths at the VA were
these:
H0: = 4.5%
H1: 4.5%

They represent
a simple null,
a two-tailed test
and we used the critical value method when we
performed the test.

The VA Case
 Hypothesis Writing Tips
The equality is always in the null, so only these
signs can be in the null: =, < and >.
The null is the status quo. If one fails to reject the
null, the status quo does not change.
Only the alternative can be concluded. We can
never prove the null.
What one needs to know is in the alternative.
Look for language that suggests equality and put
that condition in the null.
Can we conclude . . . refers to the alternative
hypothesis.

Practice Writing Hypotheses

 Noodles and Company is interested in testing
whether their new menu design helps reduce
the average order time for their customers.
Currently the average order time is 1.2 minutes.
H0 :
> 1.2 minutes
H1 :
< 1.2 minutes

Practice Writing Hypotheses

 Researchers looked at IQs of a sample of
people who claimed to have had an intense
experience with an Unidentified Flying Object
(UFO). IQs are a normally distributed random
variable centered at 100. Is the mean IQ of the
UFO group different from that of the general
population?
H0 :
= 100 IQ points
H1 :
100 IQ points

Another situation . . .
 Developers will encounter environmentalist
opposition if they attempt to expand into a
forested area where the trees are more than
500 years old on average. They want to build a
mall in Oregon on twenty acres of forest. Can
the developers build there without opposition?
H0:
< 500 years
H1 :
> 500 years

. . . and another.