Linux vs.

Windows
(based on Reports from Meta Group, Gartner Group,
ARC Advisory Group and Whitepapers)

Short Report
CT IRC TIS

CT IRC TIS
Dieter Dielmann
Tel.: +49-89-636-48885

Juni 2003

Materials contained in this paper are subject to the copyright of third party content providers
(the Copyright holders). These materials may not be reproduced, republished, stored,
distributed, transmitted or altered except the prior written consent of the copyright holder.
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Contents
1 Scope of this Report 3

2 Trends and Forecasts 3

2.1 Assessment of META Group 3
2.2 Assessment of Gartner Group 4
2.3 Linux Comes to Manufacturing (ARC Advisory Group) [7] 7

3 Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) 7

4 Linux: Technology Overview 8

5 Literature 10
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1 Scope of this Report

In which direction is Linux, the open source operating system heading? How will the
development in the server and mainframe area continue? Will Linux be able to gain some
shares of the market? Does Linux come to the manufacturing ? Does Linux really help to
cut costs?
The discussion about Linux intensified again in the last weeks, especially due to the latest
struggle over what operating system will be used in the administration of the City of
Munich. The City of Munich decided, despite strong interventions by Microsoft, to use
Linux.

Some important trends and developments are summarized in this short report. The main
original documents are part of the printed report.

2 Trends and Forecasts

2.1 Assessment of META Group
The report Linux-Betriebssystemlandschaft im Wandel (the changing Linux operating
landscape) of the META Group Germany analyses the future chances of Linux [1]
Linux is no outsider operating system in the server area anymore. A survey of companies
showed that 36 percent made use of Linux in some form already.
For 2003 the META Group expects an increment to 45 percent.
Linux is used especially in areas without critical requirements to the availability, like web
servers, mail servers, file and print servers, smaller directory servers and groupware
servers.

The future of Linux as a server operating system is consistently evaluated very optimistic.
Especially in the context of Intels IA 32 Bit and IA 64 Bit platforms Linux is expected to
grow. Until 2006/7 the use of Linux on newly shipped Intel servers (Lintel) will raise from
todays 15-20% up to 45%. Many producers, especially IBM and SuSE, support the
technological development of Linux on mainframe computers. A linux wave in the desktop
area and for mobility devices (eg. PDAs) is not expected.
Important for the further development of Linux is mainly the technological improvement in
terms of maturity and the development of total cost of ownership calculations.
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Apart from that the results of the survey show a high grade of satisfaction with Linux as an
operating system, especially in terms of stability and performance. Hand in hand comes a
strategic increment of acceptance within corporate IT departments. [2]

Due to strong and increasing support by system producers many new applications will be
available on the market within the next 12 to 18 months. Especially in the areas of
systems management, networking and application development the market will grow
stronger.
The META Group is convinced that from the end of 2004 Microsoft will start to port some
its products to Linux, which are at this stage still proprietary application middleware
products (eg. .NET components) and backoffice products like SQL Server, IIS and
Exchange. Even the Windows operating system could get a new pricing scheme and / or
might be split up into new components (eg. Kernel and Add-On components).

2.2 Assessment of Gartner Group

Midrange Server Magic Quadrant: Leadership Prospects for Unix, Linux and
Windows [3]
In 2003, technology upheaval will continue in the midrange server market. For instance,
blades and the next-generation Itanium processor will greatly influence the marketing
strategies of the top vendors. The Midrange Server Magic Quadrant, and its related
Server Evaluation Model, provide point-in-time snapshots of the server landscape. IBMs
pSeries has strengthened its grip as the leading platform within the Midrange Server
Magic Quadrant, and Hewlett-Packards HP-UX and Fujitsu Siemens Primepower have
also made progress. However, the greatest change is reserved for the growing influence
of Linux on the midrange server market. Different business models and capabilities
among the Linux distributors and platform offerings resulted in varied positions for Red
Hat, SuSE and IBMs zSeries in the Midrange Server Magic Quadrant. Suns entry into the
Linux market has been halting, and Sun will have to demonstrate much better clarity in the
positioning of its x86 platforms to make headway beyond its current limited niche
position.
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Hype Cycle for Open-Source Technologies, 2003 [4]

In the Hype Cyle at the peak is enterprise use of Linux for desktop computing, not just
servers. Estimated time to Plateau/Adoption Speed will be two to five years.
After several false starts, Linux on the desktop is starting to gain some attention.
Increased stability of Linux distributions may help shift total cost of ownership favorably in
Linux's direction. Many support issues remain, however.
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Microsoft vs. Linux: The Changing Nature of Competition [5]

Linux and open-source software are unlike any competition that Microsoft has ever faced.
Free open-source software is more a fundamental movement, and because the nature of
competition has changed, Microsoft must now employ strategies that are very different.
Fast forward to 2003 Linux and open-source software are changing everything at
least for Microsoft and its competitive stances.
In the next five years, Microsofts competitive tactics will be dramatically different from
those of the previous five years (0.8 probability).

What Microsoft Will Do:

1. Microsoft will use strategies that attempt to leverage innovation and trustworthiness
through 2006 (0.7 probability).
2. Microsoft will use strategies that leverage tight technical integration between its
operating systems, middleware and applications through 2007 (0.8 probability).

What Microsoft Won't Do:

1. Microsoft will not support Linux through 2006 (0.8 probability).
2. .NET will not be used as a cross-platform strategy, but it will remain a brand for
connectivity through 2007 (0.8 probability).
3. Microsoft will not use bundling strategies through 2007 (0.7 probability).

Microsoft Under Threat Government and cultural Threat [6]

Many governments have examined their dependence on Microsoft technologies and
currently 11 governments are openly choosing non-Microsoft software. They are:
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, Germany, India, Malaysia, Mexico, Norway, Peru and
South Africa. The following are examples of government action:
The Norwegian government refused to resign a volume licensing agreement with
Microsoft to stimulate competition.
In Germany, the federal Bundestaag has indicated that if alternatives to Microsoft server
operating systems are available, they should be used instead.
In China, the Beijing municipal government recently awarded a contract to Red Flag,
one indigenous Linux distributor, rather than Microsoft. This led to a domino effect, with
a growing number of government contracts favoring opensource software

Through to 2005, three primary threats Microsoft business practices, government and
cultural concerns, and open-source software will cause Microsoft to lose at least 5
percent market share in the worldwide government office computing market (0.7
probability).

Myths of Linux on the Desktop [13]

Enterprises need to take a realistic look at desktop Linux to separate the myths
from the reality. Enterprises should evaluate all of the software in their stacks
and consider how running alternatives on Windows and Linux may change their
costs. Although extending hardware life and moving to a Linux operating system
may result in some savings, they will probably not eliminate all of the costs the
enterprise expects. When considering labor costs, we believe that locking down
and managing the desktop will result in bigger savings than simply switching
operating systems, and enterprises need to consider the technical, political and
cultural issues to understand how they will be successful with these disciplines
under Linux if they previously failed under Windows.
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2.3 Linux Comes to Manufacturing (ARC Advisory Group) [7]

While Linux has become commonplace for Web servers, its still a rare sight in
manufacturing. However, this is beginning to change as Linux begins to pick up
momentum in the area of controls, embedded systems, and networking on the factory
floor.
One of the contributing factors to the adoption of Linux in the manufacturing environment
is the long-term presence of Unix-based production systems that have traditionally run
factory systems. Companies that already have internal Unix-based development and
support staff find that making the transition to Linux is relatively straight-forward given that
Linux is essentially based on the Unix operating system architecture.

Linux-based industrial controllers are beginning to show up in controls applications as very

reliable and robust automation equipment. Just as PC-based open control software
emerged from the smaller, more leading-edge technology -oriented suppliers, Linux-
based control hardware and software control solutions are emerging from this sector.

The key reasons and recommendations for adopting Linux:

No licensing fees.
Access to the source code.
High levels of reliability.

3 Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)

One main point in discussions is Linux has a lower Total Cost of Ownership than
Windows. Two papers with detailed examples and calculations are attached to this
report.

An IDC White Paper sponsored by Microsoft Corporation published following opinion:

Linux is widely regarded as "free" because there is no or little cost associated with
software acquisition. However, after taking into account all costs, notably IT staffing,
does Linux truly come at a lower cost than competing platforms, such as Windows?
IDC has completed a study of five common workloads in enter- prise computing that
challenges the common industry perception that Linux is "free." Our in-depth study
suggests that Microsoft Windows 2000 offers lower total cost than a Linux solution in
four of the five workloads common to most corporate IT environments. In these four
workloads (network infrastructure, print serving, file serving, and security applications),
the cost advantages of Windows are significant: 11.22% less over a five-year period.
The cost advantages are driven primarily by Windows' significantly lower costs for IT
staffing, generally the largest single component of IT costs. For the fifth workload,
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Web serving, Linux had a cost advantage of 6% compared with Windows 2000 over
the five-year period.
IDC's study confirms that low initial software acquisition costs are only one factor, not the
deciding one, in determining the five-year total cost of ownership (TCO) for the two
operating environments.

The second document was created by Cybersource Pty. Ltd, an australian company
(www.cyber.com.au). [9]
Cybersource modeled an organisation with 250 computer_ using staff, an appropriate
number of workstations, servers, with Internet connectivity, an e_ business system,
network cabling and hardware, standard software, and salaries for IT professionals to
establish and support this infrastructure and technology. We ran the model with two
options: firstly, using pre_ existing hardware and secondly, purchasing brand new
hardware and network infrastructure explicitly for establishing this organisation's computer
systems. We also simulated the IT expenses over a 3 year period, mimicking the
operational life_ span of most corporate computer systems, and amortising the purchase
and installation costs over that period of time.
Throughout this whitepaper, we will be presenting the raw data as well as the explicative
methedologies used in the determination of the overall costs. While we have taken care
and effort to present a holistic analysis, we are mindful that no single organisation is likely
to operate with the exact parameters presented here, and we therefore recommend the
use of the document as a guide only. Further, while this document makes express use of
technology and services found within the IT industry, it is intended for an audience of non_
IT executives within small to medium sized organisations.
The final results are summarized in the table below.
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4 Linux: Technology Overview

Linux Operating System Technology: Perspective [10]
Linuxs kernel, shell, file structure and utilities look and act much like Unix. But the Linux
operating system is open source and has a low entry cost, making it a popular alternative
for Web, mail, file/print serving and, now, to more critical line-of-business computing.
Linux has the potential to trim down development and deployment costs and offers an
alternative to Microsoft and Unix systems.
The main topics of the report are Technology Basics and Analysis, Operating
Requirements, Benefits and Risks.

Linux Security Capabilities: Perspective [11]

Linux is more than a niche operating system and is driving toward mainstream
acceptance. It shares the basic security capabilities of commercial and open-source Unix
OSs. In common with the open-source BSDs, Linux benefits from rapid bug identification
and remediation: it is not inherently more secure than a commercial OS, but will tend to
achieve a given level of security more quickly. Mainstream Linux distributions do not yet
have the auditability necessary for C2-like CSPP conformance or the more advanced
security capabilities required for B1-like LSPP conformance. Secure Linux distributions, or
enhancements for mainstream distributions, are available, but these do not have the
same level of support as the mainstream distributions. There is an abundance of free,
open-source security tools for Linux, but, while the situation is improving, organizations
can be limited in their choice for commercial security software for Linux. In the short term,
however, organizations that put a premium on good security should stay with better-
established commercial Unix OSs or other commercial OSs.

Linux-Based Graphical User Interfaces: Perspective [12]

The Windows desktop metaphor is the tried-and-true, familiar interface for
millions of computer users. People are used to itand like it. Thats why Linux
GUI developers have built their desktop interfaces to compare in style and
function to Windows. In addition, they have built in the flexibility for users to
define other styles, ultimately leaving it up to end users to determine how they
want their own space to look. Now that Linux can look like Windows, does it have
the chance to better compete on the desktop? At the very least, it represents one
less obstacle. But with the exception of limited-use environments,
organizations for the most partare still cautious and loyal to their traditional
Windows operating system. Nonetheless, as developers are emphasizing
usability features with KDE and GNOME at the core, they are essentially giving
Linux a needed boost in its quest to make the operating system a more
acceptable desktop environment.
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5 Literature
[1] Linux Betriebssystemlandschaft im Wandel (Studie)
META Group Deutschland, 2003
[2] Deutsche Anwender sind sehr zufrieden mit Linux (Pressemitteilung)
META Group Deutschland, Dezember 2002
[3] CIO Update: Gartners Midrange Server Magic Quadrant Shows Linux Upswing
Gartner Group, A. Butler, February 2003
[4] Hype Cycle for Open-Source Technologies, 2003
Gartner Group, N. Drakos, May 2003
[5] Microsoft vs. Linux: The Changing Nature of Competition
Gartner Group, D. Smith, March 2003
[6] Microsoft Under Threat
Gartner Group, A. Mac Neela, December 2002
[7] Linux comes to the manufacturing
ARC Advisory Group, April 2003
[8] Windows 2000 Versus Linux in Enterprise Computing
IDC White Paper, Jean Bozman, Al Gillen..., 2002
[9] Linux vs. Windows - Total Cost of Ownership Comparison
Cybersource Pty. Ltd., Whitepaper, 2002
[10] Linux Operating System Technology: Perspective
Gartner Group, Mary Hubley, March 2003
[11] Linux Security Capabilities: Perspective
Gartner Group, Ant Allan, November 2002
[12] Linux-Based Graphical User Interfaces: Perspective
Gartner Group, Mary Hubley, March 2003
[13] Myths of Linux on the Desktop
Gartner Group, M. Silver, April 2003

Literature marked in bold type will be found attached to this short report in printed form.