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Table of Contents

Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................................ 4
Total Natural Resources Reserves .............................................................................................................................. 4
Total Energy Consumption ............................................................................................................................................ 4
Total Installed Generation Capacity ........................................................................................................................... 6
Total Electricity Production Vs Electricity Consumption ................................................................................... 7
Electricity Shortfall .........................................................................................................................................................10
New Capacity Addition ..................................................................................................................................................10
Renewable Energy Potential in Pakistan................................................................................................................10
Solar & Wind variability in Pakistan (Annually, Monthly & Daily) ...............................................................13
Renewable Energy Installations ................................................................................................................................13
Renewable Energy Policy (Tariffs, Incentives, Time etc) .................................................................................13
Renewable Energy Tariffs ............................................................................................................................................14
Electricity Cost Comparison with Renewable Energy FITs .............................................................................14
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) ...................................................................................................................16
Annex List of Power Plants .......................................................................................................................................17

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List of Figures

Fig.1 Total Energy Consumption in Pakistan 2014............................................................................................ 4


Fig.2 Energy Consumption by Sectors - 2014 .......................................................................................................... 5
Fig.3 Electricity Consumption by Sectors - 2014 ................................................................................................... 5
Fig.4 Total Installed Generation Capacity 2015 .................................................................................................. 6
Fig.5 Total Power Generation ( 2004 2013) ......................................................................................................... 7
Fig.6 Electricity Production GWh by Fuel Type (2003 2013) ..................................................................... 8
Fig.7 Electricity Consumption in Major Sectors (2004 - 2013) ........................................................................ 9
Fig.8 Global Horizontal Irradiation of Pakistan ...................................................................................................11
Fig. 9 Wind Power Map 50 m - Pakistan...............................................................................................................12
Fig. 10 Electricity Cost Comparison with RE FIT ...............................................................................................15

List of Tables

Table : 1 Total Natural Resources Reserves ............................................................................................................ 4


Table 2 -Power Generation Capacity Addition 2015-16, Planning Commission Pakistan ...................10
Table 3 Renewable Energy Installations ..............................................................................................................13
Table 4 Feed in Tariff for Solar PV ..........................................................................................................................14
Table 5 Feed in Tariff for Wind Power ..................................................................................................................14
Table 6 Electricity Cost Comparison with R.E FITs ..........................................................................................14
Table 7 Registered Projects with CDM ..................................................................................................................16

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Introduction
Pakistan is the sixth-most populous country with a population exceeding 199 million
people. It is the 36th largest country in the world in terms of area with an area covering
881,913 km2. Pakistan has a 1,046-kilometre (650 mi) coastline along the Arabian
Sea and the Gulf of Oman in the south and is bordered by India to the
east, Afghanistan to the west, Iran to the southwest and China in the far northeast
respectively. It is separated from Tajikistan by Afghanistan's narrow Wakhan
Corridor in the north.

Total Natural Resources Reserves

Resources Value Updated Till Source


Coal Reserves 184.5 billion Tonnes 2013 Ministry of Petroleum
Crude Oil Reserves 371 million bbl 2015 CIA World Factbook
Natural Gas Reserves 754.6 billion m3 2014 CIA World Factbook
Table : 1 Total Natural Resources Reserves

Total Energy Consumption


In Pakistan oil and gas are two key components of energy mix contributing almost 73
percent (oil 29% and gas 44%) during 2012 while share of coal & LPG is almost 10
percent and 1 percent, respectively. Pakistan is one of the largest consumers of gas in
the region while Pakistans proven coal reserves are the worlds sixth largest.

Total Energy Consumption

COAL
9%

GAS
41%

ELECTRICITY
17%

OIL LPG
32% 1%

Source : Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan - 2014

Fig.1 Total Energy Consumption in Pakistan 2014

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Energy Consumption by Sectors

32%

30% 2%
2% 2% DOMESTIC
2% 2008-09 COMMERCIAL
2013-14 22% INDUSTRIAL
25% AGRICULTURE

40% TRANSPORT
4%
OTHER GOVT
35%

4%

Source : Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan - 2014

Fig.2 Energy Consumption by Sectors - 2014

The Above graph shows that how energy consumption has changed over the years in
pakistan since 2008. Still industy is the major energy consumption sector in pakistan.

The share of electricity is just 17 percent in total energy consumption this year as
shown in fig. 1, which is further classified into different sectors below:

Electricity Consumption by Sectors


AGRICULTURE
12.5%
INDUSTRIAL
27.5%
BULK SUPPLIES
5.9%

STREET LIGHT
COMMERCIAL 0.6%
7.5%

DOMESTIC OTHER GOVT


45.9% 0.1%

Source : Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan - 2014

Fig.3 Electricity Consumption by Sectors - 2014

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Due to urbanization the population density is increasing in urban areas increasing the
energy consumption profiles. The percentage population having access to electricity is
increasing. According to world bank stats 95% of urban population has access to
electricity.

Total Installed Generation Capacity

Total Installed Power Generation Capacity - MW

Oil, 33.4% Nuclear, 3.5%

Coal, 0.6%
Gas , 29.2%

Wind, 1.1%
Hydel, 31.7%

Solar, 0.4%

Sources : WAPDA, NEPRA

Fig.4 Total Installed Generation Capacity 2015

As Pakistan is facing severe electricity shortfall which peaks up to 6000 MW, so the
Government of Pakistan has taken the initiative for low cost power generation plants
and making the transmission and distribution network better. Renewable Energy
integration is being promoted by giving feed in tariffs and other incentives to attract
investors from the private sector as well. As shown in the graph above already solar and
wind farms have been started working and new are under installation phase.

COMSTECH Secretariat, 33-Constitution Avenue, G-5/2, Islamabad


Total Electricity Production Vs Electricity Consumption

IEA Energy Statistics


Electricity Production Vs Electricity Consumption
http://www.iea.org/statistics/

98,213 95,661 95,357 94,384 95,090 96,125 97,796


100000 93,629 91,616
85,629
74,390 77,168 76,929 76,788 78,890
80000 72,849 73,430
67,807 70,382
61,397
60000
GWh

40000

20000

0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Electricity Production - GWh Electricity Consumption - GWh


Fig.5 Total Power Generation ( 2004 2013)

COMSTECH Secretariat, 33-Constitution Avenue, G-5/2, Islamabad


Electricity Production by Fuel Type - GWh

120000

100000

80000

60000

40000

20000

0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro IEA Energy Statistics


http://www.iea.org/statistics/

Fig.6 Electricity Production GWh by Fuel Type (2003 2013)

COMSTECH Secretariat, 33-Constitution Avenue, G-5/2, Islamabad


IEA Energy Statistics
http://www.iea.org/statistics/ Electricity Consumption in Major Sectors - GWh

90000

80000

70000

60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Industry Transport Residential Commercial & Public Services Agriculture/Forestry

Fig.7 Electricity Consumption in Major Sectors (2004 - 2013)

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Electricity Shortfall
The electricity industry faces problems with power generation theft, insufficient collection
rates, line losses, high natural gas subsidies, the high cost of furnace oil used in place of
natural gas, and insufficient natural gas supply. These problems have resulted in the poor
financial position of generation companies, leading to widespread power shortages.

New Capacity Addition


An amount of Rs317,177 million has been allocated for various power projects for 2015-16
of the Ministry of Water and Power, Ministry of Kashmir affairs and Gilgit Baltistan,
Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission and Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority. The
WAPDA, NTDC, GENCOs and DISCOs will invest Rs174,950 million from their own
resources. The installed power generating capacity is planned to be increased from 24,830
MW in June 2015 to 25,857 MW in June 2016 through an addition of 1,027 MW in system.
The break up is given below:

Capacity Addition 2015-16 (MW)


Capacity Commissioning
Sr. # Name of Project Agency Fuel
(MW) Date
1 Chashma-III Nuclear Power Plant PAEC Nuclear 340 Apr-16
2 Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park Phase-II PTDB Solar 300 2015 -16
3 Nandipur CCPP GENCO Gas 100 2015 -16
4 Sapphire Wind Power Co. AEDB wind 49.5 Dec-15
5 Chiniot Power Ltd AEDB Bagasse 62.4 Dec-15
6 RYK Mills Limited AEDB Bagasse 30 Dec-15
7 Hamza Sugar Mills Ltd AEDB Bagasse 15 Dec-15
8 Yunus Energy Ltd AEDB Wind 50 Jun-16
9 Tapal Wind Power Pvt Ltd AEDB Wind 30 Jun-16
10 Metro Power Co. Pvt Ltd AEDB Wind 50 Jun-16
Total Addition 2015-16 1027

Table 2 -Power Generation Capacity Addition 2015-16, Planning Commission Pakistan

Renewable Energy Potential in Pakistan


Solar Energy
Pakistan lies in a region of high solar irradiance with most regions receiving approximately
8 to 10 sunlight hours per day. The potential installed capacity of solar photovoltaic power
is estimated to be 1,600 GW per year, providing approximately 3.5 PWh of electricity.

COMSTECH Secretariat, 33-Constitution Avenue, G-5/2, Islamabad


Fig.8 Global Horizontal Irradiation of Pakistan

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Wind Energy
Wind energy also has strong technical potential in Pakistan, particularly in the southern regions of Sindh and Balochistan. Pakistan has
approximately 1,000 km of coastline with steady average wind speeds ranging between 5 and 7 m/s. The projected installed capacity for
wind energy is estimated at 122.6 GW per year, providing approximately 212 TWh of electricity.

Fig. 9 Wind Power Map 50 m - Pakistan

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Solar & Wind variability in Pakistan (Annually, Monthly & Daily)

Renewable Energy Installations


Capacity
Name Location
Technologies MW
Completed / Commissioned Projects
FFC Energy Limited 49.5 Jhimpir
Zorlu Enerji Pakistan (Pvt.) Limited 56.4 Jhimpir
Three Gorges Pakistan First Wind Farm
49.5 Jhimpir
Wind (Pvt.) Limited

Foundation Wind Energy II (Pvt.) Limited 50 Gharo

Foundation Wind Energy I Limited 50 Gharo


Solar Quaid - E - Azam Solar Co. Pvt Ltd 100 Bahawalpur
Total Commissioned Project Capacity 355.4 MW
Table 3 Renewable Energy Installations

Renewable Energy Policy (Tariffs, Incentives, Time etc)


The GoP has set an ambitious target of having at least 5% of the total power generation of
the country (i.e. 9700 MW) through alternative energy by 2030 that would have a descent
share coming from solar & wind power. Incentives given by GoP for renewable energy
promotion are as follows:

Wind Risk (risk of variability of wind speed).


Guaranteed Electricity Purchase.
Grid provision is the responsibility of the purchaser
Protection against political risk.
Attractive Tariff (Cost plus 17% ROE), indexed to inflation & exchange rate variation
(Rupee / Dollar).
Euro / Dollar Parity allowed.
Carbon Credits available.
No Import Duties on Equipment.
Exemption on Income Tax / Withholding Tax and Sales Tax.
Permission to issue corporate registered bonds.
Building capacities of the public sector institutions in solar power projects

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Renewable Energy Tariffs
NEPRA, has announced (January 22, 2015) revised new upfront tariff for solar PV power
projects at following rates.

Levelized Tariff for Solar PV Power Projects (US Cents/kWh)


North (LIBOR) South (LIBOR)
1 - 20MW 21 - 50 MW 51 - 100 MW 1 - 20MW 21 - 50 MW 51 - 100 MW
15.0279 14.8953 14.7588 14.4096 14.2825 14.1516
Table 4 Feed in Tariff for Solar PV

Levelized Tariff for Wind Power Projects (Rs/kWh)


Levelized Tariff on 100 % Foreign Loan Levelized Tariff on 100 % Local Loan
Levelized - Levelized -
Years 1- 10 Years 11- 20 Years 1- 10 Years 11- 20
Rs.Kwh Rs.Kwh
12.4782 5.7458 10.6048 15.3226 5.9208 12.7064
Table 5 Feed in Tariff for Wind Power
Net annual energy generation supplied to the power purchaser in a year, in excess of
35% net annual plant capacity factor will be charged at the following tariffs:

Net Annual Capacity Factor % of the Prevelant Tariff


From 35% to 36% 75%
From 36% to 37% 80%
Above 37% 100%
Electricity Cost Comparison with Renewable Energy FITs
Sr . Electricity Rate Feed in Tariff Feed in Tariff Updated
Country
No. (US cents/kWh) for Solar for Wind On
1 Turkey 13 19.37 8.91 2015
2 Pakistan 14.25 14 12 2016
3 Malaysia 14.76 33.4 2013
4 UAE 11.98 9.69 2013
5 Bangladesh 9.24 16.7 14.47 2014
6 Nigeria 16.55 49 17.9 2016
7 Uganda 36.2 12.4 2014
8 India 18 7 11 2013
9 Germany 32.04 12.08 9.47 2015
10 France 19.39 8.2 9.13 2014
Table 6 Electricity Cost Comparison with R.E FITs

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Electricity Rate VS Feed In Tariff
USD Cents/KWh
France 19.39 8.2 9.13
Germany 32.04 12.08 9.47
India 18 7 11
Uganda 36.2 12.4
Nigeria 16.55 49 17.9
Bangladesh 9.24 16.7 14.47
UAE 11.98 9.69
Malaysia 14.76 33.4
Pakistan 14.25 14 12
Turkey 13 19.37 8.91

0 20 40 60 80
USD Cents / KWh

Electricity Rate (US cents/kWh) Feed in Tariff for Solar Feed in Tariff for Wind

Fig. 10 Electricity Cost Comparison with RE FIT

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Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
The sponsors of ARE projects in Pakistan also have been looking at this option. 18 RE
projects have been registered for 1.3 million CERs annually, and 29 RE projects are in
process of registration for 1.6 million CERs annually. Current Market price of one CER is
below USD 1; however it is expected to increase as the developed countries are going to re-
affirm their commitments to take target to reduce emissions in COP-21 (to be held in Paris
in Oct 2015). To avail max benefits from new market situations, the investors are
endeavoring to register their projects with CDM. The details of the projects that have
started process for CDM registration are as follows:

Registered Projects with CDM

No. of Cumulative Capacity of No. of


Sr. No. RE Resource Registered Registered Projects Approved
Projects (MW) CERs

1 Wind 8 405.9 709287


2 Biomass 8 190 550000
3 Small Hydro 1 15 76000
4 Solar 1 50 33000
Table 7 Registered Projects with CDM

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Annex List of Power Plants

Existing Installed Capacity


Hydel WAPDA
1 Tarbela Hydel 3,478
2 Mangla Hydel 1,000
3 Ghazi Barotha Hydel 1,450
4 Warsak Hydel 243
5 Chashma Low Head Hydel 184
6 Allai Khwar HPP Hydel 121
7 Jinnah Low Head Hydel 96
8 Small Hydels5 Hydel 106
9 Khan Khwar HPP Hydel 72
10 Dubair Khwar HPP Hydel 130
Sub-Total (WAPDA Hydel) 6,902
Others
11 Jagran Hydel Hydel 30
12 Malakand-III Hydel Hydel 81
Total Hydel 7,013
GENCOs
13 TPS Jamshoro #1-4 Gas/FO/RFO 850
14 GTPS Kotri #1-7 Gas/HSD 174
Sub-Total GENCO-I 1,024
15 TPS Guddu Steam #1-13 Gas/FO 1,655
16 Guddu 747 Gas 747
17 TPS Quetta Gas 35
Sub-Total GENCO-II 2,437
18 TPS Muzaffargarh #1-6 RFO/FO/Gas 1,350
19 NGPS Multan #1&2 Gas/RFO/HSD/FO 195
20 GTPS Faisalabad #1-9 Gas/HSD 244
21 SPS Faisalabad #1&2 FO/Gas/ RFO 132
22 Shahdara G.T. Gas 44
23 Nandipur RFO 286
Sub-Total GENCO-III 2,251
24 FBC Lakhra Coal 150
Sub-Total GENCO-IV 150
Sub-Total GENCOs 5,862

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Nuclear
25 Chashma Nuclear (PAEC)-I Uranium 325
26 Chashma Nuclear (PAEC)-II Uranium 340
Sub-Total (Nuclear) 665
Hydel IPPs
27 New Bong Escape Hydel 84
Sub-Total (Hydel IPPs) 195

Thermal IPPs
28 KAPCO RFO/Gas/HSD 1,638
29 Hub Power Project (HUBCO) RFO 1,292
30 Kohinoor Energy Ltd. (KEL) RFO 131
31 AES Lalpir Ltd. RFO 362
32 AES Pak Gen (Pvt) Ltd. RFO 365
33 SEPCOL RFO 135
34 Habibullah Energy Ltd. (HCPC) Gas 140
35 Uch Power Project Gas 586
36 Rousch (Pak) Power Ltd. Gas 450
37 Fauji Kabirwala (FKPCL) Gas 157
38 Saba Power Company RFO 134
39 Japan Power Generation Ltd. RFO 135
40 Liberty Power Project Gas 235
41 Altern Energy Ltd. (AEL) Gas 31
42 Attock Generation PP RFO 163
43 ATLAS Power RFO 219
44 Engro P.P. Daharki, Sindh HSD/Gas/FO 226
45 Saif P.P. Sahiwal, Punjab Gas/HSD 225
46 Orient P.P. Balloki, Punjab Gas/HSD 225
47 Nishat P.P. Near Lahore RFO 200
48 Nishat Chunian Project. Lahore RFO 200
49 Foundation Power Gas 175
50 Saphire Muridke Gas/HSD 225
51 Liberty Tech RFO 200
52 Hubco Narowal RFO 220
53 Halmore Bhikki HSD/Gas 225
54 Uch-II Gas 375
55 Davis Gas 10
56 Sub-Total Thermal IPPs 8,678

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Wind Power Projects
57 Fauji Wind Power Wind 50
58 Zorlu Energy Wind Power Wind 56
Total Wind Power Plants 106
Total Installed Capacity (Public+Private) 22,408
Total Installed Capacity K-Electric 2,422
Grand Total (Sub Total + K-Electric) 24,830

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