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AUSTRALIA Sydney
EXHIBIT 1
Our Cycle Dashboard Suggests That Many Assets Classes at the Aggregate Level Are Now Fairly to Fully Valued; As
Such, More Creativity Will Be Required
CYCLE METRICS: NUMBER OF STANDARD DEVIATIONS RICH/(CHEAP)
Embed- Avg.
ded EPS Across
Avg. Growth Credit and Trail-
Avg. Across Market (Rate-Adj. Cycle- Unemp. Credit ing 5yr
Across All Equity EV/ Cap % of Equity Related Rate Spreads Equity Mkt
Metrics Metrics EBITDA Fwd P/E GDP Valuation) Shiller P/E Metrics (inverse) (inverse) Return
U.S. 0.7 0.6 1.4 0.7 1.2 -0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.5
EUROPE 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 -1.2 -0.2 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.4
EM 0.1 0.0 1.5 -0.2 0.3 -0.6 -0.8 0.2 0.4 0.7 -0.5
JAPAN 0.0 -0.5 -0.4 -0.9 1.1 -1.2 -1.0 0.9 0.7 -0.1 2.1
KKR GMAA Target Asset Allocation Update for 2H17 Second, we believe that we have entered a world where domes-
tic agendas are being championed over global ones. In our view,
KKR GMAA Strategy KKR GMAA this trend has important implications for global supply chains; it
July 2017 Benchmark January 2017 also means that large domestic economies with sizeable consumer
ASSET CLASS Target (%) (%) Target (%) markets are likely to become a destination of choice for global capital
Public Equities 53 53 53 providers. Third, we see regulatory burdens easing relative to the
heightened regulatory environment we have been in. The U.S. finan-
U.S. 19 20 21
cial services industry is clearly a beneficiary, but the Energy sector
Europe 16 15 15 too could prosper. Finally, we expect volatility to move beyond the
All Asia ex-Japan* 7 7 6 currency market into other asset classes, including rates.
Japan 7 5 7
Section I: Macro Update
Latin America 4 6 4
Total Fixed Income 28 30 28 In the following section we provide macro updates on global GDP/
Global Government (DM and inflation, global interest rates, global EPS, and the global economic
6 20 6
EM) cycle.
Asset-Based Lending/
8 0 5
Mezzanine Global GDP Update/Inflation Outlook
High Yield 0 5 0
Well, it has been a long time coming this cycle, but our recent travels
Levered Loans 4 0 4
across North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia finally lead us to
High Grade 0 5 0 believe that we are seeing something akin to a synchronous global
Emerging Market Debt 0 0 0 recovery (Exhibit 3). China recently rebounded from its crash in
Actively Managed nominal GDP towards a more sustainable albeit more modest
5 0 5
Opportunistic Credit level, while a positive outcome in the French election has helped to
Fixed Income Hedge Funds 0 0 0 further boost growth in the Eurozone. The U.S. too is reaccelerating,
though forecasting growth in this region remains the most difficult,
Global Direct Lending 5 0 8
as it sways between the promise of meaningful tax reform versus
Real Assets 8 5 6 uncertainty surrounding the vision of the current administration.
Real Estate 3 2 3
Energy Assets/ Meanwhile, despite solid growth trends, we also see inflation mod-
5 2 5
Infrastructure erating across many regions of the world in the second half of 2017.
Gold 0 1 -2 In fact, as we show in Exhibit 4, we believe that inflation is likely to
undershoot consensus expectations in most areas of the world where
Other Alternatives 10 10 10
KKR does business except China.
Traditional PE 8 5 8
Distressed / Special
2 0 2
Situation
Growth Capital / VC / Other 0 5 0
Cash 1 2 3
*Please note that as of December 31, 2015 we have recalibrated Asia Today, almost all our work streams
Public Equities as All Asia ex-Japan and Japan Public Equities. Strategy
benchmark is the typical allocation of a large U.S. pension plan. Data as suggest that asset prices across
at June 30, 2017. Source: KKR Global Macro & Asset Allocation (GMAA).
most parts of the global capital
markets are somewhere between
Against this backdrop, we continue to subscribe to the Paradigm
Shift thesis that we laid out in January. Specifically, we believe that
fair value and expensive.
there are several notable mega trends on which to focus. First, we
see fiscal policies replacing monetary ones as incremental drivers
EXHIBIT 4 -31
GMAA Bloomberg
Target Consensus KKR GMAA Bloomberg -149
Real GDP Real GDP Target Consensus 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Growth Growth Inflation Inflation
Data as at May 11, 2017. Source: European Commission, Haver Analytics.
U.S. 2.3% 2.2% 1.9% 2.2%
Our Quantitative Model Suggests Even Better Growth The Philips Curve in Europe Appears Unresponsive,
Ahead in the Eurozone, Bolstered by Easier Credit, the Which Means Wage Inflation Is Indifferent to the Labor
Falling Euro, Lower Oil and Zero Interest Rate Policy Market
Elements of 4Q17e Eurozone GDP Forecast EZ Phillips Curve Regimes on Data From 1965-2016
Unemployment Below 7.6% Unemployment Above 7.6%
+0.9% +0.1%
2.5%
Credit
Conditions
Falling TW
EUR
ECB ZIRP
Falling
Brent (EUR
terms)
Stagnant
Housing Mkt
Forecast
0%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
Unemployment Rate
Data as at June 28, 2017. Source: Eurostat, European Commission, Data as at June 21, 2017. Source: European Commission, KKR Global
Statistical Office of the European Communities, Haver Analytics. Macro & Asset Allocation, Haver Analytics.
EXHIBIT 7 United States: Tweaking both our growth and inflation forecasts lower.
Many GDP Drivers Are Positive vs. Trend in Europe, We have lowered our 2017e GDP to 2.3% from 2.5% previously. As
Though We Anticipate Some Relative Weakness in Trade such, we now remain just above the consensus of 2.2%. Second
quarter GDP was tracking around four percent as recently as the
and Remain Conservative on Regional Exporters
start of June. In recent weeks, however, 2Q17 GDP tracking has
EZ Real GDP Forecast fallen to 2.7% at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate. In isolation
thats still pretty strong growth, but it means that the uplift in 2Q17
Trend Consumption will be insufficient to fully offset the malaise in 1Q17, which is why
Investment Government we have taken our full-year GDP estimate down.
Trade EZ Real GDP
Date of
In terms of linking the macro to the micro, we note the following:
Forecast
2.5% Vehicle sales have slowed, which is consistent with our expec-
2.0% tations going into 2017, but the magnitude so far has been a bit
1.5% greater than expected. Weve been forecasting light vehicle sales
1.0% Trend = 1.3% at a 17 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), which
0.5% would represent a decline of three percent from 17.5 million in
0.0% 2016. As Exhibit 12 illustrates, however, things have been even
-0.5% softer than anticipated so far in 2017, with the SAAR running at
GMAA Forecast Shows
-1.0% Weakness In Trade
just 16.6 million in May. Declining used car residual values are
having an important impact on new car sales.
01/16
03/16
05/16
07/16
09/16
11/16
01/17
03/17
05/17
07/17
09/17
11/17
01/18
03/18
05/18
-1% 6%
Core Core 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Services, 18.2%
Data as at March 31, 2017. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S.
Census Bureau, Haver Analytics.
Most High-Level Macro Leading Indicators in the U.S. ...And a Dip in Multifamily Construction Starts
Are Currently Quite Positive
Total Multifamily Housing Starts, SAAR,
Elements of 4Q17e GDP Leading Indicator Thousands of Units
500
Dec-16
460
0.2% 2.8% 450
0.2%
0.2% -0.1%
0.3%
400
0.3%
1.7%
350
300
May-17
298
250
Apr-15
Apr-17
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-16
Oct-16
Oct-15
Jan-17
Jan-14
Jan-16
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-16
Jul-15
Baseline
Credit
Conditions
Lower Oil Px
Rising Home
Sales
Recovering
Household Wealth
Other Factors
Graying
Workforce
Forecast
Data as at June 20, 2017. Source: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics.
EXHIBIT 14
Data as at June 20, 2017. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver, KKR Recent U.S. Economic Data Have Been Weak, but
Global Macro & Asset Allocation analysis. Earnings and International Economic Data Have Been
Considerably More Upbeat
EXHIBIT 12 Net Economic Surprises and EPS Estimate Revisions,
...But Some Industry-Specific Factors Have Weighed on Past Three Months
1H17 Growth, Including Weak Auto Sales... 40
23
Light Weight Vehicle Sales, Autos+Light Trucks, 20 12
9 9
SAAR, Millions of Units
18.5 Dec-16
0
18.3
18.0
-20
17.5
-40 -32
17.0
-60
16.5
May-17
16.6 -80
16.0 -77
15.5 -100
U.S. Economic
Surprises
UK Economic
Surprises
EM Economic
Surprises
Japan Economic
Surprises
Eurozone Economic
Surprises
15.0
Apr-17
Apr-14
Apr-16
Apr-15
Oct-15
Jan-15
Jul-15
Oct-14
Oct-16
Jan-17
Jan-14
Jan-16
Jul-14
Jul-16
Data as at June 30, 2017. Source: IEA, Bloomberg, KKR Global Macro & EXHIBIT 17
Asset Allocation analysis.
Past Its Cyclical Peak: We Think That Nominal GDP Will
Now Moderate as PPI Falls Again
EXHIBIT 16
China: PPI, Y/y, %, LHS
Global Oil Inventories Can Currently Supply 64 Days of China: Nominal GDP, Y/y,%, RHS
Forward Demand the Highest Level in Nine Years
12 Sep-07 30
Global Inventories Adjusted for Demand vs. Brent, 2008-Today 24.0 Ination
8
peaked
1Q17 25
Brent in 1Q17
7.4
($/bbl) R = 0.71 20
$140 4
15
$120 0
Overpriced
Mar-17 10
$100 11.8
-4 Dec-15 5
May-17 83% correlation
$80 between PPI and GDP 6.4
-8 0
$60 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Data as at May 31, 2017. Source: China National Bureau of Statistics,
$40 Haver, Morgan Stanley, KKR Global Macro & Asset Allocation analysis.
Underpriced
$20
65 64 63 62 61 60 59 58 57 56 55 54 53 52 51 50
Despite Record Fiscal Stimulus If Current Trends Persist in China, Debt-to-GDP Ratios
Could Hit 300% in Less Than 24 Months
China Fiscal Deficits as a Percent of GDP, 3 Month Moving Average
O-budget Deficit China: Credit as a % of GDP
Augmented Fiscal Deficit Bear Case: Credit Growth 16%, Nom GDP 9%
Ocial Fiscal Deficit Base Case: Credit Growth 13%, Nom GDP 9%
4 Bull Case: Credit Growth 8%, Nom GDP 9%
0
400
360 Dec-21
-4 At the current pace, China will
Dec-18 356
320 reach 300% debt to GDP 293
307
-8 much sooner than expected
280
240 245
-12
200
-16 160
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
120
Data as at May 31, 2017. Source: CEIC, Wind, Goldman Sachs Global 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Investment Research.
Data as at 4Q16. Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, BIS, Haver
Analytics.
EXHIBIT 19
Looking ahead, Frances believes that the government is trying to
Chinese Authorities Are Using the Current GDP Strength
temper debt growth by being more coordinated across all its financial
to Tackle Deleveraging in the Financial Sector regulators, including the PBoC, CBRC, CSRC, CIRC, and Politburo1 etc.
China: Real GDP Growth Y/y, % Without question, we view this coordination as a major positive. The
bad news is that, even with tighter controls, China continues to grow
20 its debt load in excess of nominal GDP. One can see the magnitude of
Real GDP Jun-15
the issue in Exhibit 20, which highlights our belief that Chinas debt-
18 Financials (16%) 18.8
to-GDP ratio could nearly reach 300% by next year if measures are
16 Ex-Financials (84%) not taken to slow credit growth down. Furthermore, in the near term,
14 there is likely to be heightened volatility as implementation of new
12 policies is subject to execution risk.
Mar-17
10 8.3 So, whats our bottom line? Despite its surging debt burden, we
8 believe that Chinas economy will be able to maintain real GDP
6 Mar-17 growth at or above its targeted 6.5% for the remainder of this year
Dec-16 4.4
4 versus 6.9% in 1Q17. Key to our thinking is that President Xi Jinping
3.8 will want to keep economic growth in a steady range ahead of the
2
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 government transition in October. Our expectation is that as many
as five of the seven Politburo Standing Committee members could
Data as at March 31, 2017. Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, be replaced, and as a result, we believe that President Xi will work
Haver Analytics.
with his team to ensure that economic volatility does not disrupt this
transition. To be sure, it is still too early to call, but Exhibit 18 under-
scores how much incremental spending the Chinese government is
already pursuing to ensure economic headwinds do not dominate the
governmental agenda in the fall.
We see a secular shift towards
global consumers willing to spend
more on experiences than things
these days.
1 PBoC = Peoples Bank of China; CBRC = China Banking Regulatory
Commission; CSRC = China Securities Regulatory Commission; CIRC = China
Insurance Regulatory Commission; Politburo = policy making committee of the
Communist Party.
U.S. Outlook In the face of what has been a surprisingly weak back-
We Are Lowering Our U.S. 10-Year Yield Targets by 25
drop for core inflation, commodity prices, and U.S. GDP so far in Basis Points to 2.5% for Year-End 2017 and 3.0% for 2018
2017, the Federal Reserve in June made no material changes to its (Estimated Cycle Peak)
dots plot fed funds forecasts (which continue to imply one more
KKR GMAA U.S. 10-Year Yield Forecast, %
hike this year and three next year) and no material changes to its
inflation forecasts for 2018 or beyond. Moreover, it chose to preview Prior Forecast New Forecast
its balance sheet normalization plans, which we believe the central
bank will roll out this September. 3.25%
3.00%
2.75%
We clearly see the world slightly differently than the Fed, and as
such, recently modified our interest rate forecasts (both short- and 2.50%
long-end). Specifically, we have removed one 25 basis point hike
from our 2018 Fed forecast (versus our prior estimate), which means
we now expect fed funds to reach 1.875% at our expected cyclical
peak at the end of 2018, down from 2.125% previously (Exhibit 21).
Though we respect the Feds seeming resolve to continue its tighten-
ing campaign, we think the drumbeat of persistently low inflation driven
by weak commodity prices, demographics, and technological disruption
will force it to pause at some point in coming quarters. In light of our
revised Fed forecasts of one more hike in 2017 to 1.375% and two 25
YE'17 YE'18 (Cycle Peak)
basis point hikes in 2018, our 10-year yield target falls to 2.5% from
2.75% for 2017 and to 3.0% from 3.25% at our expected cycle peak Data as at June 14, 2017. Source: KKR Global Macro & Asset Allocation
in 2018 (Exhibit 22). analysis.
Data as at November 15, 2016. Source: Bloomberg, KKR Global Macro &
Looking at the big picture, our view is that the Federal Reserve is Asset Allocation analysis.
using its public commentary to signal three important messages.
First, the neutral rate is likely to be much lower this cycle. Specifi-
cally, we believe that the neutral rate, which is the interest rate that EXHIBIT 24
neither stimulates nor cools down the economy, could be closer to
2.5%, compared to a historical average of closer to 4.0%. We link While Chinas Economy Is Just $11.2 Trillion vs. $18.6
this downshift to demographics (note the participation rate is now at Trillion for the U.S., It Has 1.6x the Amount of U.S. Savings
62.7% versus 67.1% twenty years ago), disruptive technologies (e.g.,
the traditional retail sector has lost 51,000 jobs during the last three Gross Domestic Savings, US$ Trillions
months ending May 31, 2017 at a time when overall employment
China Japan US
grew by 362,000 during the same period), and uncertainty around
China and its excess capacity in industries such as steel. 6
2016
5.5
Second, the Fed will likely be extremely conservative around the un- 5
winding of its balance sheet. Said differently, it learned an important
lesson during the 2013 Taper Tantrum. Given that the maturing of the 4
balance sheet is non-linear, we think that this approach makes sense. 3.4
Also, given that quantitative easing is actually a novel concept, there 3
is little to no precedent about how shrinking a $4.3 trillion balance
sheet might affect market liquidity, volatility, etc. 2
1.3
1
0
We think that the low employment '60 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15
rate overstates the health of the Note: Total savings estimated by deducting final consumption expenditure
from nominal GDP. 2016 number for Chinas saving is our own estimate.
consumer within the United Data as at December 31, 2016. Source: Maybank Kim Eng Economics
Research, Chinas Rising Wall of Savings, April 2017; CEIC.
States. In particular, credit trends
within auto, student lending, and Third, barring a surge in wage growth to north of 3.5%, we be-
lieve that the Federal Reserve will remain measured. There are just
and certain card categories are all too many unusual forces for them to consider, including a poten-
areas of concern. tial change in leadership, tax reform, and China. Also, the Federal
Reserve will likely have to wrestle with the reality that the repeal of
the Affordable Care Act could dent consumer spending more than
markets now think. Indeed, low income consumers have a higher
We Expect Greater International Rates Volatility as Both PRO-FORMA GMAA 2017E EPS $127.7 7.1%
the ECB and BoJ Balance Sheets Eclipse the Fed In USD
Terms Data as at June 15, 2017. Source: KKR Global Macro & Asset Allocation
analysis.
Central Bank Balance Sheets, US$ Trillions
Fed ECB BoJ
EXHIBIT 30
5.0
Our 2017 EPS Estimate Is $128, Which Is 3.4% Below
4.5 Consensus Estimates
4.0
2017 S&P 500 Earnings Per Share Estimate
3.5 (US$/share)
3.0 $132.1
2.5 $128.9 +$0.0
+$1.2 $127.7
-$3.2 -$1.0
2.0
-$1.4
May-17
May-16
May-15
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-15
Mar-17
Jan-16
Sep-16
Jan-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Mar-15
Nov-16
Nov-15
Data as at June 21, 2017. Source: ECB, Fed, BoJ, Haver Analytics.
Stronger US Dollar
Lower Energy
Consens us 2017
Margin Growth
GMAA 2017e
Baseline EPS
Contribution
Buybacks
Industrials
Materials
Cons Disc
S&P 500
Health Care
Staples
Energy
Telcos
Tech
S&P 500 Consensus Estimate (2017-18) Potential Partial Loss of Interest Deductibility: We estimate that
S&P 500 non-financial companies had roughly $2.8 trillion of net
12%
debt and roughly $150 billion of interest expense for fiscal year
11% 2016. So, at a 25% corporate rate, the loss of all interest expense
10.7% deductions would cost the S&P 500 roughly $4.40 per share in
10% 10.1% earnings. In our view, a shift towards immediate 100% expens-
ing of interest costs is highly unlikely. So, for our base case we
9% 9.7% assume 50% of this number (or $2.20 in EPS), which handicaps
the probability that there is some grandfathering provision on
8% existing debt.
7%
U.S. Dollar: See our commentary below in the where are we in
6% the cycle section, but we now assume that the dollar bull market
has largely run its course. Case in point, the dollar has already
5% depreciated five percent year-to-date. Even so, the average dollar
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 price in 2017 year-to-date remains three percent above the aver-
Data as at June 28, 2017. Source: BofAML, KKR Global Macro & Asset age price for full year 2016. Assuming no further appreciation or
Allocation analysis. depreciation from current levels, 2018 EPS would be adversely
affected by two dollars per share in our base case.
When we bring it all together, our 2018 EPS forecast for the S&P
500 is now $141, compared to our prior forecast of $143 and a cur-
rent consensus of $148. One can see a breakdown of our forecast in
Exhibit 35. Included in our base case for 2018 is 4.1% top-line growth
and flat margins, both forecasts slightly more conservative than the
5%
EXHIBIT 36
8%
6% 5.1%
4.1%
4%
2%
0%
We now are more inclined to
Revenue Growth
Estimate
Profit Margin Earnings Growth
Estimate
lean in on emerging market
Data as at June 28, 2017. Source: IBES, MSCI, KKR Global Macro &
opportunities, particularly if they
Asset Allocation analysis. are linked to GDP-per-capita
stories at appropriate valuations.
Though it may not feel this way to some, we are actually now 96
27% of US months into an economic expansion in the United States (Exhibit 40).
Energy Our base view is that the expansion continues through 2018, and
EPS growth
then we run into a soft patch of economic growth thereafter. While
economic expansions do not die of old age, they are affected by
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
issues like peaking margins, heightened leverage, and deteriorating
Data as at June 28, 2017. Source: IBES, MSCI, KKR Global Macro & credit. For our nickel, we see all three as potential concerns being
Asset Allocation analysis. issues by 2019.
EXHIBIT 40
Our bigger picture comment, which we think is bullish for EM, is We Are Quite Long in the Tooth in Terms of Pure Cycle
that Technology has now become become bigger than Financials, Duration at 96 Months
measured as a percentage of MSCI market capitalization (Exhibit 39).
In our humble opinion, this baton hand-off points to not only an im- Duration of U.S. Economic Expansions (Months)
portant maturing of emerging market economies but also that public
investors are now able to own securities and indexes that are more June 2009 Current (Jun-2017) 96
directly levered to EMs rising GDP per capita stories. In the past, November 2001 - December 2007 73
this was clearly not the case, as many EM indexes were heavily tilted March 1991 - March 2001 120
November 1982 - July 1990 92
towards just commodity and financial companies. July 1980 - July 1981 12
March 1975 - January 1980 58
EXHIBIT 39 November 1970 - November 1973 36
February 1961 - December 1969 106
The Technology Sector Has Taken Over as the Largest April 1958 - April 1960 24
Driver of EM Returns May 1954 - August 1957 39
October 1949 - July 1953 45
MSCI EM: Sector Weight, % October 1945 - November 1948 37
June 1938 - February 1945 80
Financials Tech March 1933 - May 1937 50
30% November 1927 - August 1929 21
July 1924 - October 1926 27
July 1921 - May 1923 22
25% March 1919 - January 1920 10
December 1914 - August 1918 44
20% January 1912 - January 1913 12
June 1908 - January 1910 19
August 1904 - May 1907 33
15% December 1900 - September 1902 21 Median = 37
10% Data as at June 30, 2017. Source: NBER, KKR Global Macro & Asset
Allocation analysis.
5%
0%
'97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17
Data as at June 6, 2017. Source: Bloomberg.
Eight Years of Consecutive Positive Performance for the Despite the Strong Bull Run, 45% of Private Equity Core
S&P 500 Is Highly Unusual; We Are Now at Eight and Addressable Market As Measured by the Russell 2000 Still
One-Half Years Through June 30th, 2017 Has EV/EBITDA of Less than 10x
# OF CONSECUTIVE EV/EBITDA of U.S. Stocks With EVs of
YEARS OF POSITIVE CUMULATIVE $500mm-$5bn
RETURNS START END RETURN CAGR 45% of R2K has
Negative < 6x an EV/EBITDA
of under 10x
3 1904 1906 67% 19% EBITDA 9%
7%
3 1954 1956 111% 28%
6-8x
3 1963 1965 60% 17% 16%
9 1991 1999 450% 21% Importantly, though, we just do not see the leverage in the system to
argue for a major, broad-based recession in the U.S. (Exhibits 44 and
AVG. CAGR 19% 45). Rather, we think that we are entering peak margin season for
corporations at a time when low-end consumers appear to be strug-
Cumulative total return on an annual basis. Data as at December 31,
2016. Source: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/, Bloomberg.
gling, despite robust employment growth. We are not sure, but lack
of productivity may have driven corporations to employ more but pay
less, a backdrop that we think is not ideal when profits are histori-
EXHIBIT 42 cally high this late in the cycle.
Private Equity Typically Outperforms in Lower Return Another important part of the where are we in the cycle story
Environments revolves around the currency, the U.S. dollar in particular. Our base
view continues to be that the U.S. dollar is in a near-term lull before
U.S. Private Equity Average Relative Returns in its last rally, likely driven by a U.S. recession in 2019. From a valu-
Various Market Environments, % ation perspective, the U.S. dollar now appears overvalued on a real
effective exchange rate basis while most other currencies are either
11.6
10.2 undervalued or close to fair value, suggesting the longer-term trend
6.3
is in favor of a weaker U.S. dollar (Exhibits 46 and 47).
Driven by factors such as
increased activism amidst
< 0% 0-10% 10-20%
-7.5
> 20%
declining returns on equity in
S&P 500 Total Return
foreign markets, we see many
U.S. Private Equity returns as per Cambridge Associates. Data based
CEOs now striving to better
on annual returns from 1989-2016. Source: Cambridge Associates,
Bloomberg, KKR Global Macro & Asset Allocation analysis.
simplify their global footprints.
-10%
EXHIBIT 46
-15%
Global Imbalances Have Narrowed, Which Suggests Less
-20%
Misalignment of Global Currencies
-25% 2001
Current Account as a % of GDP
-30% 1991
-2
EXHIBIT 45
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
Though it may not feel this way
to some, we are actually now
-4%
80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 96 months into an economic
Data as at May 31, 2015. Source: Bloomberg, KKR Global Macro & Asset expansion in the United States.
Allocation analysis.
Our base view is that the
expansion continues through 2018,
Second, with the bulk of the political headwinds in Europe passed,
the euro is likely to remain reasonably strong against the U.S. dol- and then we run into a soft patch
lar, in our view. This viewpoint could be significant for markets, as
the euro makes up approximately 20-60% of most trade weighted
of economic growth thereafter.
currency indexes that many investors follow. Third, from a cyclical
perspective, the U.S. is late cycle and growth is likely to lose momen-
In Addition, the U.S. Dollar No Longer Appears Rate of Returns for FDI Are Declining in Many Areas of
Undervalued on a Real Effective Exchange Rate Basis the Global Economy
Real Major Trade-Weighted US Dollar REER: Rate of Return on Outward Foreign Direct Investment, %
% Over (Under) Valued
US UK Germany Netherlands
Mar-85 16%
40% 40.8% Commodity
ASEAN
Crisis, Feb-02 Producer Crisis 14%
30% Russian 24.8%
Latam Default 12%
Dec-16
Crisis
20% 16.6% 10%
+1W
Jun-17 8%
10% 13.5%
Avg 6%
0%
4%
1W
-10%
2%
Oct-78
-20% -11.8% Jun-95 Jul-11 0%
-15.9% -16.9% 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
-30%
70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 Data as at December 31, 2016 or latest available year. Source: National
Statistics, OECD.
Data as at June 28, 2017. Source: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Haver
Analytics.
EXHIBIT 49
Financial
Diversified
Basic Materials
10 Jun-17
Avg 9.0 BETA VS. SPOT 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.0
9
Data as at December 31, 2016. Source: Bloomberg, Cambridge Associates.
8
-1W
7
6
5
01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17
Data as at June 28, 2017. Source: Factset Aggregates.
At the moment, Japan has emerged as one of the most compelling
50% of the total margin expansion
pure play examples on our thesis about corporations shedding non- since 2009 has come from just
core assets and subsidiaries. Without question, the macro backdrop
is compelling for at least three reasons. First, many of Japans
the Technology sector, with Apple
largest companies have literally hundreds of subsidiaries that could accounting for a full 20% of total
be deemed non-core, and as corporate governance and shareholder
activism gain momentum, they are increasingly being identified as margin expansion during this
potential sources of value creation. Second, the deposit to GDP ratio same period.
is 135.5% (Exhibit 50), underscoring that banks are hungry to lend to
acquirers of these subsidiaries. In many instances, a private equity
firm can get at least 7x leverage, with an all-in cost of funds that is
The Lions Share of Rig Count Growth by Basin Over the Interest by European Investors Towards Infrastructure Has
Past Year Has Been All Permian Generally Increased in Recent Years
Operating Rig Count, Oil European Infrastructure Investors Level of Focus for
May-16 = 100 Investments by Region, 2016
1 = Not Under Consideration 5 = Significant Focus
125 Permian Bakken
2010 2016
Eagle Ford Niobrara
120
Western Europe
115 South East Asia
North America
110
Middle East
105 India
Eastern Europe
100
Mar-17 China
Nov-16
Apr-17
Oct-16
Jan-17
May-16
Feb-17
Aug-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Jun-16
EXHIBIT 54 -1 1 3 5
U.S. Upstream Activity Has Focused on Streamlining, Data as at 2016. Source: Deloitte European Infrastructure Survey 2016.
With Many Energy Companies Selling Assets to
Reposition Their Portfolios for Faster Growth Experiences over Things While this theme is not a new one for us, the
pace of implementation appears to have accelerated in recent months.
U.S. Upstream Transactions: Deal Value and
Count by Year, US$ Billions Importantly, as we describe below, we do not think that the trend
towards experiences is just the Amazon effect. Rather, we believe
Deal Value Deal Count that key influences such as increased healthcare spending, heightened
$120 500 rental costs, and rising telecommunications budgets (e.g., iPhones)
385 442 450 are leaving less and less discretionary income for traditional items,
$100 400 particularly mainstream retail. One can see this trend in Exhibit 56.
$98
$80 285 350
300
$60 $69 250
$40
200 Given that global central bank
150
$20 $32 100 balance sheets have expanded
50 by $14 trillion in recent years, we
$0 0
2015 2016 2017 YTD continue to find examples around
(Actual Thru
May 31, the world in both equities and
Annualized)
debt where investors appear to be
Data as at May 2017. Source: PLS.
over-paying for quality assets but
are not willing to pay fair price
for assets that may have stumbled
and/or require some fixing to
achieve their potential.
EXHIBIT 57 -1.0
May-17
The Trend Towards Greater Spending on Experiences Is -2.0 -1.6
Accelerating in Europe Too
-3.0
EU Consumer Spending Breakdown, Volume
Index, 1995= 100 -4.0
Apr-08
Apr-15
Apr-01
Aug-10
Dec-98
Feb-00
Aug-03
Dec-05
Oct-04
Jun-09
Oct-11
Feb-07
Dec-12
Feb-14
Jun-02
Jun-16
160 Experiences Other Spending
150 Core core goods = Goods inflation ex-food, energy goods, healthcare
goods, and tobacco. Data as at May 31, 2017. Source: Bureau of Labor
1 Percentage Point Statistics, Haver Analytics, KKR Global Macro & Asset Allocation analysis.
140
of Outperformance
per year
130
120
A more ominous conclusion is
110 that, because this cycle has been
100 defined by adding employees and
not boosting productivity in recent
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Experiences Includes Recreation & Culture, Oth Recr Items & Equip,
years, we now have an excess of
Gardens & Pets, Package Holidays, Restaurants & Hotels, Personal Care,
Personal Effects n.e.c. Data as at December 31, 2016. Source: Eurostat,
employees in the workforce relative
Haver Analytics, KKR Global Macro & Asset Allocation analysis. to long-term growth potential.
...Driven by Negative Pricing Across Many Traditional Chinese Millennials Not Only Save Less But Also Allocate
Goods Three Times More of Their Income to Leisure
U.S. CPI Ination, Y/y, % Spending Breakdown China Overall vs. Chinese Millennials
Core core goods = Goods inflation ex food, energy goods, healthcare Data as at December 31, 2016. Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment
goods, and tobacco. Data as at May 31, 2017. Source: Bureau of Labor Research.
Statistics, Haver Analytics, KKR Global Macro & Asset Allocation analysis.
EXHIBIT 61
The downside of the environment we are describing is that many The Trend of Experiences Over Things May Force Tough
traditional retailers, malls, and product providers are likely to see Decisions in the U.S. Brick and Mortar Community
waning demand for their offerings. Moreover, pricing power in many
areas of the goods market is negative. All told, goods inflation has Retail Square Feet and Sales per Capita
been negative on a year-over-year basis for the past 16 consecu-
Retail Square Feet per Capita, LHS
tive quarters and negative for 50 of the last 69 quarters since 2000
(Exhibit 58). These trends are noteworthy, because as we show Retail Sales per Capita, USD Billions, RHS
30 $16,000
in Exhibit 61, a lot of infrastructure has already been built to support $14,623
$14,000
consumer expenditures. As a result, if we are right that the shift 25 24
towards experiences over things is more secular than cyclical (which $12,000
we believe it is), many companies across the global supply chain may 20 $10,557
$9,628 $10,000
need to reconsider their existing footprints to better accommodate 16 $9,169
15 $7,921 $8,000
the preferential shifts that we are highlighting. $6,003
11 $6,378 $6,000
10
$3,065 $4,000
5
5 4 4
3 2 $2,000
China
Japan
Canada
Germany
Australia
France
U.K.
Momentum
5 Matters in EM
Equities
Despite the threat of deregulation EM valuation and ROE have turned supportive.
in financial services in the U.S., Overall
Early-stage re-
covery is starting
The recovery could prove bumpy at times until
fundamentals such as FX and the commodity
we still view the illiquidity to unfold backdrop offer more definitive support, but on net,
the outlook has improved
premium as compelling, Data as at June 28, 2017. Source: KKR Global Macro & Asset Allocation
particularly in todays low interest analysis.
rate environment.
8.3%
5.8% 5.8% 6.0% 5.5%
5.9%
5.5%
9% 2% 5.0%
5.1% 4.9%
3.9% 3.6%
3.3%
2.9% 2.7% 3.0% 2.7% 2.8%
8% 1% 2008, 2.8%
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
0.7% 0.7%
E= Credit Suisse Research Estimate. Data as at May 31, 2017. Source:
Credit Suisse HOLT, Credit Suisse Research.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1
2017
Spain 8.6%
8.1%
Italy 7.5% 7.3% 7.6%
7.0% 6.5% 6.8%
India 6.5% BBB 8.5% 6.2%
Indonesia 6.8% 5.1% 5.0% 5.1%
4.7% 5.0%
Mexico 6.8% 4.4% 4.4%
2008, 4.2% 3.8%
Russia BB
1.6%
Brazil
0.2%
-1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 11%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1
Data as at June 22, 2017; Source: Bloomberg. 2017
Foreign Banks Have Pulled Back from Indonesia, Creating Separately, we also see an emerging trend no pun intended in
Opportunities in Certain Instances for Private Credit many of the emerging markets that we have visited in recent quar-
ters. Indeed, as we show in Exhibit 70, more and more corporates in
Loans By Foreign/Joint Venture Banks in places like India and Indonesia are shifting from traditional financial
Indonesia as a % of GDP intermediaries in favor of complex solutions that can be underwritten
Sep-15 by leading private credit players.
16%
EXHIBIT 70
15%
Emerging Market Private Credit Is Increasingly Another
14% Interesting Play on Our Illiquidity Premium Thesis
13% Yields as at June 22, 2017, %
Mar-11
Mar-13
Sep-12
Sep-14
Sep-16
Mar-17
Mar-12
Mar-14
Sep-15
Sep-10
Sep-11
Mar-16
Sep-13
2.6 2.6
EXHIBIT 73
8.2%
The Wide Range of Equity Performance Has Created
Significant Opportunities to Both Buy and Sell
4.9%
S&P 500 Price Return, 12-Month % Change
50%
40%
30%
Apr'03-Sep'07 Apr' 09-Current +1stdev
20%
Equity Market Expansion Cycles
10%
Data as at June 28, 2017. Source: CBOE, Bloomberg, KKR Global Macro Avg.
& Asset Allocation analysis. 0%
-10%
-1stdev
EXHIBIT 72 -20%
'17
'12
'14
'07
'16
'18
'02
'04
'15
'06
'08
'10
'11
'19
'05
'09
'13
'03
Overall Index
BB-BBB
B-BB
B-BB
CCC-B
CCC-B
ment of the U.S. market that has not built net worth in recent years.
Moreover, debt loads in areas such as student lending and autos has
crept up to what we view as concerning levels. Sub-prime credit
cards too should be an area of investor focus, in our view. How else
Data as at February 28, 2017. Source: Credit Suisse.
can one explain rising auto defaults that now approximate 2007 lev-
els with unemployment below the natural rate of employment?
EXHIBIT 75 EXHIBIT 76
There Are Very Few Asset Classes Offering Above Healthcare and Shelter Inflation Have Largely More Than
Average Yields. MLPs Are Currently One of Them Offset Any Acceleration in U.S. Wage Growth
+/-One StDev 10yr Avg. Current U.S. Wage Growth vs. Healthcare and Shelter
13 Ination, Y/y, % Change
MLPs are One of Few
12 Assset Classes that Currently
11 Oer Above-Average Yields
4.0%
10 3.5%
9 3.5%
Indicated Yield
3.1%
8
7 3.0%
2.5%
6
5 2.5%
4 2.0%
3
2 1.5%
1
0 1.0%
MLPs
Bbg NA REIT
Index
DJ Dividend
Index
Leveraged
Loans
US High
Yield
US
Corporates
EM
Sovereign
EM
Corporates
0.5%
0.0%
Wage Growth Healthcare Shelter Ination
Ination
Averages and standard deviations based on 10-year history from June
2007 - June 2017. Data as at June 9, 2017. Source: Bloomberg, KKR Data as at April 30, 2017. Source: Strategic Insight, SimFund, BofAML
Global Macro & Asset Allocation analysis. Global Research.
21-34 Year Olds Likely Make Up the Greatest Share of 60-Day Plus Delinquencies in the U.S. Are Up Across
U.S. Consumer Default Risk Over the Next 12 Months Prime and Subprime, With the Latter Approaching Global
Financial Crisis Peak Levels
21-34 Year Olds Consumer Debt as % of GDP
(Population Adjusted) U.S. Prime and Subprime 60+ Day Deliquencies
4.5%
Prime (LHS) Subprime (RHS)
Credit Cards
4.0% 0.8% Crisis Peak 6%
Auto Loans 0.78%
3.5% Student Loans 0.7%
Crisis Peak 4.47% 5%
0.6% 4.69%
3.0% 0.53%
4%
2.5% 0.5%
0.4% 3%
2.0%
0.3%
1.5% 2%
0.2%
1.0% 1%
0.1%
0.5%
0.0% 0%
2007
2012
2014
2006
2008
2016
2010
2011
2015
2009
2013
0.0%
'89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 '13 '16
Data as at December 31, 2016. Source: Bloomberg. Data as at March 24, 2017. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Morgan
Stanley Research.
EXHIBIT 78
EXHIBIT 80
We Believe U.S. Auto Companies Have Moved Down the
Credit Quality Ladder to Sustain Growth Americans Under the Age of 35 Now Hold the Largest
Percentage of Non-Mortgage Debt
Consumer Credit Outstanding: Motor Vehicle
1200 Loans (EOP, NSA, US$ Billions) Estimated Total Consumer Debt ex-
Mortgages by Age, %
1000 35%
800
26%
600
400
16%
14%
200
0 7%
Mar-08
Mar-98
Mar-00
Mar-10
Mar-90
Mar-02
Mar-04
Mar-12
Mar-14
Mar-92
Mar-94
Mar-06
Mar-16
Mar-96
2%
Data as at March 7, 2017. Source: Federal Reserve Board. < 35 3544 4554 5564 6574 >=75
Data as at December 3, 2016. Source: Federal Reserve Board.
If there was one take-away from
the Global Financial Crisis, it was
to follow the leverage.
The Unemployment Rate and Education Levels Go Hand- Unemployment Has Dipped Slightly Below Its Natural
in-Hand Rate (NAIRU)
2016 Unemployment Rate and Earnings by U.S. UnemploymentRate
Educational Attainment % Above/(Below) Natural Rate of Unemployment
5
Median Typical Weekly Earnings, US$
Unemployment Rate 4
$1,800 $1,664 7.4% 8%
$1,600
3
7%
$1,380
$1,400 6% 2
$1,156
$1,200 5.2%
4.4% 5% 1 1Q97
$1,000 $819
$756 4% 4Q63 1Q17
$800 $692 0
3.6% 3%
$600 2.7% $504
$400 2.4% 2% -1 1Q78 2Q05
1.6% 3Q87
$200 1%
-2
$0 0%
-3
Doctoral Degree
Master's Degree
Bachelor's Degree
Associate's Degree
Some College,
No Degree
1Q81
1Q88
1Q95
1Q09
3Q91
3Q98
3Q05
1Q74
1Q67
3Q77
1Q02
1Q60
3Q70
3Q84
3Q12
1Q16
3Q63
Data as at May 7, 2017. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Congressional
Budget Office, KKR Global Macro & Asset Allocation analysis.
-1.5%
also be looking for investments in A more ominous conclusion is that, because this cycle has been
the right ponds of opportunity. defined by adding employees and not boosting productivity in recent
years, we now have an excess of employees in the workforce relative
to long-term growth potential. This insight is significant because it
could lead to a potentially surprising number of layoffs if corporate
Since 2009, Investors Have Poured $1.8 Trillion Into Credit Spreads Are Tight From almost any vantage point, credit
Passive Funds and Redeemed $600 Billion from Active spreads appear tight. Our favorite measure for quantifying potential
over-optimism in the credit markets is to assess the implied default
U.S. Equity Funds
rate that the liquid high yield market appears to be discounting. As
Cumulative Flows to U.S. Equity Funds, US$ Trillions we show in Exhibit 86, the model is currently suggesting an implied
default rate of 0.9%, well below the historical average and a far cry
Passive Active 2.6 from levels seen as recently as 1Q16. In terms of absolute yield lev-
2.5
els, high yield spreads too feel compressed, trading now at 369 basis
2.0 points above the risk-free rate. In the past, this spread has averaged
closer to 580 basis points.
1.5 EXHIBIT 86
High Yield Spreads Have Tightened Significantly, and As High Yield Spreads Appear Mispriced Relative to Those
Such, Are Now Well Below Average of Bank Loans at This Point in the Cycle
U.S. High Yield Spread and Average, Basis Points High Yield vs. Leveraged Loan Spread, Basis Points
400
US High Yield Spread (bps) Avg (580 bps)
350
1200
300
Oct-02 Feb-16
1000 1036 Oct-11
250
278bp
876 200
800 Sep-11
150 184bp
100
600
50
400 0
Jun-17
Jun-17
-50 May-13 -41bp
200 -53bp
369 -100
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
0
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 Data as at June 15, 2017. Source: Bloomberg.
Relative value within and across the high yield asset class also feels High Yield Energy Credit Looks Expensive Relative to
somewhat disconnected with reality. For example, despite being Equities at Current Oil Prices
lower down in the capital structure, high yield spreads are now trad-
ing 41 basis points tighter, on average, than bank loans (Exhibit 88). Performance of HY Energy, Oil, and Energy Stocks,
Also, when we look at high yield debt relative to equities in volatile Dec-14=100
sectors like energy, credit appears expensive. One can see this po- US HY Energy (LHS)
tential disconnect in Exhibit 89. US Energy Stocks (LHS)
102 WTI-spot (RHS) 105
101
100 100
99
98 95
97
96 90
95
94 85
93
92 80
1/15 7/15 1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17
Performance data in log terms, indexed to 100 in December 2014. Data
Moreover, we expect an extended as at June 28, 2017. Source: Bloomberg.
EXHIBIT 90 To be sure, while China can maintain strict capital controls in the
Chinas Current Account Surplus and Its Capital Account short-term, it cant do it forever. Moreover, if the country continues
Have Diverged to run nominal credit growth above nominal GDP for an extended
period of time, we believe that the currency will be forced to adjust.
China: LTM Current Account Surplus vs Capital
Outows (US$B) Section IV: Conclusion
Current Account Surplus As we peer around the corner today on what tomorrow might bring,
Net Capital Flows Incl Errors & Omissions our work leads us to forecast lower overall returns. Key to our think-
600
ing for the next five years is that margins and multiples are high,
400 while interest rates are low. Also, we potentially expect an increase
200 in companies cost of capital, as interest rate volatility increases.
Dec-16 Moreover, as we indicated earlier, we have entered a period of
0
210 heightened social and geopolitical tensions, tensions that are not
-200 likely to abate during what our colleague Ken Mehlman refers to as a
-400 Dec-16 global political bull market.
-650
-600 Against this backdrop, however, we still see some attractive oppor-
-800 tunities. Our base view is that investors must focus on those select
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 areas where a manager can gain what is believed to be an advantage
Data as at 4Q16. Source: State Administration of Foreign Exchange, in sourcing, operations, strategy, and/or execution. He or she must
Haver Analytics. also be looking for investments in the right ponds of opportunity.
300% 80%
78%
250% 60%
200% 40%
Overall, we believe that China
bears who are calling for major
150%
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
20% downside to growth from current
Data as at December 31, 2016. Source: Peoples Bank of China, Haver
levels are missing the point that
Analytics. the country has already had its
economic crash in nominal terms.
Our strong view is that now is not the time to overpay for growth
and/or to over rely on margin expansion for growth. As indicated
earlier, we are now 96 months into an economic expansion, and we
now expect a shift in both global monetary policy and net issuance by
2018. Also, consumer trends are likely not as positive as the headline
data suggests in the United States, while increasing debt growth in
China relative to nominal GDP is unsustainable at current levels, in
our view.
By moving towards balance sheet
reduction mode later this year, the
Fed will also be confirming our
expectation that global developed
markets will move to a net
issuance of government debt in
2018, reversing the trend of what
has been three consecutive years
of net purchases.