Professional Documents
Culture Documents
FED SURVEY
They responded to CNBCs invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were
collected on July 20-22, 2017. Participants were not required to answer every question.
April 30,
Results are also shown for identical questions in earlier surveys.
This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those
who did accept our invitation.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Raise interest
rates 0%
Lower interest
rates 0%
Keep rates
unchanged 100%
Don't know/
unsure 0%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
Aug 2%
December
Oct 0%
2017
Nov 5%
Dec 72%
Jan '18 0%
Feb 5%
Mar 5%
Apr 0%
May 0%
Jun 0%
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.16
2.98 3.03
3.00
2.78 2.85
2.50
Average
2.50
1.97
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Nov 1 Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14 May 2 Jun 13 Jul 25
Survey Dates
27%
Approve
29%
49%
Disapprove
51%
24%
Don't know/
unsure
20%
50%
Approve
43%
26%
Disapprove
36%
Don't 24%
know/
unsure
21%
No effect 33%
Don't
know/ 0%
unsure
No effect 54%
More likely 2%
Don't
know/ 2%
unsure
Avg. forecast
Mar 14 May 2 June 13 July 25
survey survey survey
Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018
Health care reform (4% said (12% said (13% said (31% said
never) never) never) never)
90%
80%
70%
64%
62% Too optimistic
60%
56% 56%
50%
50%
47%
40%
42% Realistic
39% 39%
36%
30%
32% 31%
20%
Don't know/unsure
11%
Too pessimstic
10% 10%
5%
2% 3% 2% 3% 5%
0%
Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14 May 2 Jun 13 Jul 25
Aug
2017 9%
Sep 23%
Average:
Oct 9%
December
Nov 7% 2017
Dec 12%
Jan
2018 9%
Feb 5%
Mar 12%
Apr 0%
May 2%
Jun 2%
Jul 0%
Aug 0%
After
Aug '18 2%
Don't
know 7%
2,700
2588
2,600 2564
2555
2562
2,500
2493
2480 2453
2427 2442
2,400
2409
2357
2354
2,300 2275
2244
2223
2249 2255
2,200 2234 2242
2200
2158
2,100
2107
2,000
1,900
1,800
Dec Jan Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul
15 15 26 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14 2 13 25
2016 2017
Survey Dates
4.0%
3.44% 3.43%
3.5%
3.37%
3.22%
3.09%
3.05%
2.96%
3.0% 2.88%
3.03%
2.90%
2.88%
2.83%
2.54% 2.74%
2.61%
2.5% 2.58% 2.59%
2.26%2.28%
2.24% 2.25%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
Dec Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul
15 26 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14 2 13 25
2016 2017
Survey Dates
11. Where do you expect the fed funds target rate will
be on ?
FED SURVEY
Dec 31, 2017 Dec 31, 2018 Dec 31, 2019
April 30,
3.0%
2.73%
2.67%2.70% 2.68%
2.56%
2.5%
2.25% 2.42%
2.17% 2.19%
2.22% 2.15%
2.07% 2.10%
2.06%
2.0%
1.87%
2.02%
1.81%
1.61%1.61%1.62%1.60% 1.78%
1.69%
1.49%
1.5% 1.43%1.42%
1.39%
1.32%
1.43% 1.26%
1.22% 1.37%
1.18% 1.16%
1.0% 1.09%
0.5%
0.0%
Dec Jan Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul
15 15 26 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14 2 13 25
2016 2017
12. At what fed funds level will the Federal Reserve stop
hiking rates in the current cycle? That is, what will be the
terminalFED
rate?SURVEY
April 30,
4.0%
3.5%
3.30%
3.20%
3.17%
3.11%
3.06%
3.16%
2.98% 2.95%
3.0% 3.04% 2.94%
2.92%
2.91%
2.85%2.79% 2.73% 2.80%
2.65%
2.69%
2.65% 2.64% 2.66%
2.58% 2.48%
2.5% 2.56%
2.42% 2.44%
2.29%
2.0%
Sept 16
Sep 16
Sep 20
Oct 28
Oct 27
Dec 16
Mar 17
Jun 16
Jul 28
Dec 15
Mar 15
Jun 14
Jul 26
Dec 13
Mar 14
Jun 13
Jul 25
Aug 20
Aug 25
Jan 26 '16
Aug 24
Jan 31 '17
Apr 28
Apr 26
Nov 1
May 2
Survey Dates
2.8% +2.76%
+2.75%
+2.62%
2.6% +2.57%
+2.58%
2.45%
+2.43% +2.51%
+2.41% +2.45%
2.4%
+2.38%
+2.28%
+2.26% +2.25%
+2.31%
2.0%
1.8%
Jan 26 Aug
Dec 15 Mar 15 Apr 26 Jun 14 Jul 26 Sep 20 Nov 1 Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14 May 2 Jun 13 Jul 25
'16 24
2017 +2.43 +2.31 +2.41 +2.21 +2.25 +2.26 +2.24 +2.28 +2.16 +2.57 +2.51 +2.38 +2.24 +2.25 2.25%
2018 +2.76 +2.75 +2.62 +2.58 +2.45 2.45%
2.8%
2.64%
2.6% 2.57%
2.50%
2.44%
2.38%
2.4%
2.36% 2.37%
2.24% 2.28%
2.20% 2.23%
2.2% 2.16%
2.12%
2.13% 2.15%
2.12% 2.12%
2.09%
2.07%
2.0%
2.02%
1.88%
1.8%
1.6%
Dec Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul
15 26 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14 2 13 25
2016 2017
Survey Dates
April
Jul 30,
0%
Aug 0%
Sep 39%
Oct 27%
Nov 2%
Dec 20%
Jan '18 5%
Feb 2%
Mar 0%
Apr 0%
May 0%
Average:
Jun 0%
September '17
Jul 0%
Oct 0%
Nov 0%
Dec 2%
Jan '19 0%
Feb 0%
Mar 0%
Apr 0%
May 0%
Never 2%
-0.80 Stocks
-1.15 Bonds
18. What target size for its balance do you believe the
Federal Reserve will adopt?
FED SURVEY
Trillions of dollars
0.0
April
0.5
30,1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
Jun
13 2.4
Survey dates
Jul
25 2.5
19. Roughly how many years will the Fed take to reach
this goal?
FED SURVEY
Years
0
April
1
30, 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Jun 13 4.6
Survey dates
Jul 25 4.6
FED SURVEY
Dec 13 Jan 31 Jun 13 Jul 25
0% April 20%
10% 30, 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
11%
5%
Yes
11%
10%
82%
74%
No
68%
75%
7%
Don't 21%
know/
unsure 21%
15%
John Taylor
40%
38%
33%
30%
Kevin Warsh
24%
24%
22% 19%
20% 20%
17%
14%
3%
0%
Dec 13 Jan 31 Jun 13 Jul 25
Survey Dates
Note: Only responses that received 10% or more on any survey date are shown.
0% FED 20%
10% SURVEY
30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
April 30,
Yes 38%
No 35%
Don't
know/ 28%
unsure
Tighter
monetary 35%
policy
Looser
monetary 10%
policy
Roughly
unchanged
monetary 48%
policy
Don't
know/ 8%
unsure
24. What is the single biggest threat facing the U.S. economic
recovery? (Percentage points)
FED SURVEY
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
European recession/
presidential election
European elections
Immigration policy
Geopolitical risks
Slow job growth
Outcome of US
financial crisis
Don't know/
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
policies
unsure
Other
Tax/
U.S.
Survey
Date
Apr 30 20 31 20 0 2 2 11 0
Jun 18 15 28 20 3 3 0 13 0
Jul 30 8 30 22 0 2 2 10 14 4
Sep 17 4 27 22 2 0 4 18 7 2
Oct 29 8 29 24 3 3 3 8 13 0
Dec 17 5 32 29 2 0 2 15 2 2
Jan 28
'14 7 21 30 2 0 0 12 21 0
Mar 18 10 23 26 3 5 0 5 18 0
Apr 28 3 26 21 3 5 0 8 18 13 0
Jul 29 12 29 12 6 3 0 12 12 12 3
Sep 16 6 26 29 6 3 0 6 11 11 3
Oct 28 31 18 15 3 3 0 10 8 8 3
Dec 16 40 14 14 3 6 0 3 14 3 0
Jan 27
'15 0 13 9 0 0 0 6 16 41 6 16 0
Mar 17 6 14 0 3 6 0 6 8 28 17 14 0
April 28 3 11 8 3 0 0 6 11 28 8 19 3
Jun 16 3 17 3 0 0 0 14 25 22 6 11 0
Jul 28 6 21 9 0 0 0 12 6 29 9 9 0
Sept 16 0 16 2 0 4 0 0 8 45 8 14 2
Oct 27 0 8 5 3 8 0 8 13 41 10 5 0
Dec 15 0 10 5 0 0 0 8 10 44 5 3 15 0
Jan 26
'16 0 10 5 0 3 0 0 5 44 8 0 23 3
Mar 15 5 21 3 0 0 0 5 5 33 5 0 3 21 0
Apr 26 0 22 2 2 2 0 0 7 36 9 0 7 11 2
Jun 14 0 28 5 3 0 0 3 0 28 8 0 5 13 10 0
Jul 26 2 FED
20 7SURVEY
2 2 0 2 10 22 7 0 7 7 7 2
Aug 24 3 April
19 330,3 0 0 3 3 31 3 3 6 14 11 0
Sep 20 0 16 11 3 0 0 0 3 30 8 5 5 8 11 0
Nov 1 3 27 8 0 3 0 8 3 32 3 0 0 5 8 0
Dec 13 5 9 2 7 0 0 7 7 19 0 2 7 28 5 2
Jan 31
'17 0 5 3 3 0 0 0 3 10 15 0 0 0 51 10 0 0
Mar 14 0 7 2 2 0 0 0 7 4 7 0 2 4 47 4 13 0
May 2 0 8 3 3 0 0 0 5 24 5 0 0 5 26 8 13 0
Jun 13 0 5 5 5 0 3 0 3 21 8 5 0 0 16 8 0 8 13 0
Jul 25 0 15 5 3 3 0 0 0 13 8 5 0 0 20 5 0 18 8 0
Other responses:
Demographics
Fake news
Unsustainable debt (public and private)
36.1%
This survey:
35%
34.0% 19.3%
30%
28.5% 28.8%
26.0%
25.9%
25.3%
25.5%
25% 24.4%
23.5%
22.9% 24.1%
23.2%
22.1%
22.2%
20.6% 21.6%
20.4% 21.1% 19.3%
20% 20.3%
18.9%
18.2% 18.4% 18.5%
19.1% 17.3% 18.6% 18.1%
16.9% 16.9%
17.6% 16.2% 16.4% 17.4% 16.4%
15.1%
16.2%
15% 15.1%
15.3% 15.0%
15.2% 15.2%
14.6% 14.7%
13.6%
13.0%
10%
Mar 16
Mar 19
Jun 18
Mar 18
Mar 17
Jun 16
Mar 15
Jun 14
Mar 14
Jun 13
Aug 11, '11
Sep 19
Jul 31
Sep 12
Dec 11
Jul 30
Dec 17
Jan 28 '14
Jul 29
Sep 16
Dec 16
Jan 27 '15
Jul 28
Dec 15
Jan 15 '16
Jul 26
Sep 20
Dec 13
Jan 31 '17
Jul 25
Jan 23, '12
April 28
Sept 16
Aug 24
May 2
Oct 31
Apr 24
Apr 30
Sep 6
Oct 29
Apr 28
Oct 28
Oct 27
Jan 26
Apr 26
Nov 1
FED SURVEY
April 30,
Other
24%
Currencies
0%
Fixed Income Economics
7% 54%
Equities
15%
Comments:
I support and applaud Trump's tackling of fair trade as an issue. But the
Republicans are so divided and without a clue on what to do elsewhere. It is
very damaging FED
to seeSURVEY
them fail so completely on health care. It makes me
wonder if theyApril 30,
will be able to reach compromises on other key issues.
Some are full of ideology and others pragmatically know that their people
(ie VOTERS!) want some sort of health care LIKE Obamacare but more
affordable. The Republican leadership seems to have no plan to try to
deliver such a thing. And that has created an impasse. This is a very hard
thing to watch. There is no creativity at all. Trump is not sophisticated
about these things and the Republican deal-makers have been ham-
handed. Good Grief!
Robert Fry, Chief Economist, Robert Fry Economics LLC: The Fed
needs to shift its priority from raising short-term rates to shrinking its
balance sheet. This would allow long-term bond yields to better reflect
market forces, which, in turn, would allow investors in real and financial
assets to better evaluate investments and, through the slope of the yield
curve, would provide the Fed with guidance for setting short-term rates.
Kurt Karl, Chief Economist, Swiss Re: The Fed hiking cycle will likely be
driven by asset inflation as well as consumer inflation.
In equities, Financials, Info. Tech. and Industrials are key with Energy
offering restructuring opportunity. Materials offer restructuring opportunity
as well as precious metals diversification. We underweight Healthcare and
Consumer areas as insufficiently restructured.
Rob Morgan, Chief Investment Officer, Sandy Spring Trust: The July
Fed meeting will be a snooze-fest. In September, the committee will kick
off the balance sheet reduction, and in December they'll have a rate hike.
As for the greatest risk to the economy today, it is essentially anything that
would spook investors, businesses owners and consumers. That could be a
geopolitical event or policy mistake. The greatest risk we currently see
would be Congress failing to get a budget or continuing resolution done and
risking a repeat of the debt ceiling debacle.
The stock market is paying attention to what the Fed is hinting about
interest rates in 2018, not 2017. The cycle is not over but we see stocks
5.5% to 7.5% lower than current levels at year-end. There is a good
chance, based on our preliminary work, that the S&P 500 will be higher at
year-end 2018 than current levels.