African Journal of Business Management Vol. 5(2), pp.

505-514, 18 January, 2011

Available online at http://www.academicjournals.org/AJBM
DOI: 10.5897/AJBM10.661
ISSN 1993-8233 2011 Academic Journals

Full Length Research Paper

Soft system modeling in transportation planning:

Modeling trip flows based on the fuzzy inference
system approach
J.Jassbi1, P.Makvandi1*, M. Ataei2 and Pedro A. C. Sousa3
1
Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Management and Economics, Science and Research Branch,
Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
2
College of Business Administration, University of Missouri (UM-SL), St. Louis, USA.
3
Faculdade de Ciencias e Tecnoiogia, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Portugal.
Accepted 14 October, 2010

Transportation planning is one the most important problems of urban management systems.
Meanwhile, modeling trip flows between metropolitan zones is vital to a successful transportation
planning. Due to importance of the problem, different models have been developed in recent years but
because of the complex nature of the problem that deals with human behavior and existence of
different independent variables that affect number of trips, it is always hard to develop a model with
acceptable forecasting error that is computationally efficient. In this paper a three phases fuzzy
inference system (FIS) proposed to map social and demographic variables to total number of trips
between origin-destination (OD), pairs. Fuzzy rule bases in the model are in fact the exploration of
transportation experts subjective patterns.

Key words: Transportation planning, trip forecasting, fuzzy inference system, fuzzy rule base.

INTRODUCTION

Traffic flows and trip distribution resulted from human
choices that are affected by social and individual
variables of the commuters. Due to this fact that human
decision making are more consistent with fuzzy logic in
comparison with crisp mathematics, it seems that fuzzy
logic could be a logical tool to map such areas. Modeling
a trip distribution system with fuzzy inference systems
would enjoy the exploration of subjective pattern of
decision makers. Transportation planning is one the basic
concern and problems of many developed and also
developing countries all around the world. It is important
because it deals with cost, time and security. On the
other hand, it could be important for governments
because it could be related to the satisfaction of citizens.
Transportation planning activities are commonly based
on the forecasting. Usually, the under studied zone is
*Corresponding author. E-mail: makvandi@kiau.ac.ir. Tel: +98
21 447 32 947. Fax: +98 21 447 32 947.
divided into exact regions and planners trying to forecast
trip flow between regions as OD pairs (i.e. for 20 years
after). Based on this information, a proper transportation
infrastructure such as subway, highway, etc. is designed
and executed to serve the transportation demands. A trip
could be defined as follows:
To move between origin to destination by
mode on route in an exact period of time.
Meanwhile, one of the most important parts of forecasting
procedure is to predict the trips flow between a given
origin-destination pair. Different models have been
developed to forecast trip flows in recent years. The key
to a successful forecasting is to recognize the existing
patterns correctly. Obviously, models with minor forecast-
ting errors would be more suitable for transportation
planning but, because of complex nature of the transpor-
tation planning problems that deals with human behavior,
it is always hard to find the optimal solution. The traditional
506 Afr. J. Bus. Manage.
four-step model has been widely used in travel demand
forecasting. The standard model includes: trip generation,
trip distribution, modal split and route choice sequentially
in a top-down sequential process (Ortuzar and
Willumsen, 2001). The four-step model is based on the
functions that try to approximate the trips between the
metropolitan zones. The approximation migrates and is
reinforced from each step to the next one and this could
lead to final significant calculations deviation. Although
each step of the transportation planning is important for
transportation planners but, trip timing and mode choice
decisions of the commuters are the most important.
These two decisions along with route choice directly
determine the temporal distribution of demand expe-
rienced on any given piece of transportation infrastructure
in an urban area (Susilo and Kitamura, 2007). The
reliability of forecasting results influences the following
steps such as trip distribution, mode split, and route
choice. Therefore, improved trip generation models are
needed to improve forecasting precision (Golob, 2000).
The trip distribution models have been classified in two
broad categories as aggregate and disaggregate models.
The disaggregate models try to explain individuals
behaviors in selecting the origins and destinations of their
spatial movements while the aggregate models analyze
total number of flows between analysis zones. Since
disaggregate models work at individual level, proponents
of such models claim that the data requirement for
calibration of these types of models may be significantly
lower (Ruiter and Ben-Akiva, 1978). Even though there
have been many alternative formulations for the
aggregate trip distribution models (namely, growth factor,
fratar, intervening opportunities, gravity or regression
models), the gravity model is the most preferred one over
the years despite all of its drawbacks (Murat and Celik,
2010).
An analysis of the factors influencing traveler behavior
and destination selection shows that the attractiveness of
the traffic zone strongly affects the trip generation volume
(Yao Liya et al, 2008). Different studies have been
considered the impact of social variables and private
information on trip generation (Smiller and Hoel, 2006).
But none of the researches mapped generation variables
of the origin and attraction variables of destination to final
trip flows between origin-destination. Due to the
stochastic nature of traffic flow and the strongly non-
linear characteristics of traffic dynamics, methods of soft
computing have received much attention since early 90s
and considered as alternatives for the traditional
statistical models (Celikoglu and Cigizoglu, 2007). Among
these methods the artificial neural network (ANN) have
been commonly applied in a number of areas of transport
(Dougherty, 1995), including the studies of traffic volume
forecasting (Yun et. al. 1998), short-term traffic flow
prediction (Chen and Muller, 2001, Messai et. al., 2002),
macroscopic modeling of freeway traffic (Zhang et al.,
1997). Diverse kinds of NNs have been proposed in the
literature.
Fuzzy logic in transportation
Fuzzy logic provides an effective means of dealing with
problems involving imprecise and vague phenomena.
Fuzzy concepts enable assessors to use linguistic terms
to assess indicators in natural language expressions and
each linguistic term can be associated with a
membership function. Furthermore, fuzzy logic has found
significant applications in management sciences.
However, the gradual evolution of the expression of
uncertainty using probability theory was challenged, first
in 1937 by max black, with his studies in vagueness, then
with the introduction of fuzzy sets by Lotfi Zadeh in 1965.
Zadehs work had a profound influence on the thinking
about uncertainty because it challenged not only pro-
bability theory as the sole representation for uncertainty,
but the very foundations upon which probability theory
was based: classical binary (two valued) logic (Ross,
2004). Without denying the importance of binary logic as
the basis for the development of many scientific
disciplines and technology leading to the prosperity of
man's society, we must note that it cannot deal effectively
with passengers', dispatchers' or drivers' feelings of
uncertainty, vagueness and ambiguity. Since the fuzzy
set theory recognizes the vague boundary that exists in
some sets, different fuzzy set theory techniques need to
be used in order to properly model traffic and
transportation problems characterized by ambiguity,
subjectivity and uncertainty (Teodorovic, 1999).
A fuzzy logic system is a nonlinear system that maps a
crisp input vector into a crisp scalar output. When solving
a large number of different traffic and transportation
problems, this is what we actually do: map a crisp input
vector into a crisp scalar output. Fuzzy logic could be
used successfully to model situations in which people
make decisions in complex environments that are very
hard to develop a mathematical model. Such situations
for example often occur in the field of traffic and
transportation when studying the work of dispatchers or
modeling choice problems. Present experience shows
that there is room for the development of different
approximate reasoning algorithms when solving complex
problems of this type (Teodorovic, 1999). Fuzzy set
theory has a successful background in solving trans-
portation problems that is presented in the works of Chen
et al. (1990), Lotan and Koutsopoulos (1993a,b), Xu and
Chan, 1993), Teodorovic and Babic (1993), Chang and
Shyu (1993), Chanas et al. (1993), Deb (1993), Nanda
and Kikuchi (1993), Vukadinovic and Teodorovic (1994),
Teodorovic et al. (1994), Teodorovic and Kalic (1995),
Milosavljevic et al. (1996).
In this paper we have tried to propose a framework to

Figure 1. Conceptual model of trip forecasting input-output space mapping.
develop transportation experts subjective pattern based
on generation and attraction variables of a given origin-
destination pair. Meanwhile, fuzzy inference system
approach is used to map these variables to total number
of trips between origin-destination pair.
Novelties of the proposed approach
The novelties of the proposed approach could be
summarized as follows:
1. Moving from computation efficiency to decreasing
forecasting error could be pronounced as a dilemma in
decision making and forecasting problems and also could
be translated as a trade off problem. The complex prob-
lems challenge decision makers to define the transfer
function more precisely with more variables. Although this
could help to define the system but, calculations of
dynamic systems in simulation process would increase
exponentially. Modeling traffic flows and trip forecasting is
a complex problem that applying fuzzy concept in this
field could be helpful because of its capabilities in
modeling complex system in none computationally
expensive manner.
2. Although there are different forecasting models exis-
ting in modeling traffic flows and trip forecasting between
metropolitan regions, but most of them are hard models.
This fact most be noted that traveling between two points
in a city (that could be generalized to two regions in a
metropolis) is a human behavior that could be adopted
from human perception to overcome his/her needs. Thus,
applying a fuzzy concept that maps human subjective
patterns to mathematical models could be resulted in
more meaningful results. Due to our best knowledge the
combination of the fuzzy proposed model has never been
reported in literature before.
Jassbi et al. 507
PROBLEM DEFINITION
The final goal of any transportation planning method is to
forecast the number of trips between two given region of
under studied zone. Based on the forecasted trips
between two given regions, transportation infrastructures
(such as bridges, highways, tunnels, subways, etc.) are
designed to serve the demands in predefined level of
service. This problem could be interpreted as a function
approximation problem in which we aim to map input
space to output space where:
Input space is Trip Generation variables and trip
attraction variables. These are the variables that have
direct impacts on the generation and attraction of trips of
any given region. These variables have normally the
social and economical nature and are common variables
that are used in transportation planning studies. Table 1
shows the variables that are used in Tehran transporta-
tion planning program. Output space is the number of
trips between two given regions. The number of trips
would be approximated by a transfer function that is
formed based on the relations of trip generation
capabilities of origin and trip attraction capacities of
destination.
Conceptual model
Figure 1 illustrates the conceptual framework of the trip
forecasting problem. The main concern of the problem is
to approximate the transfer function that is capable of
mapping trip attraction and generation variables to
number of trips between two given regions. As it
addressed in introduction section, Different kinds of
transfer functions had been used in this problem. Here, a
hybrid fuzzy inference system is used to map input space
to output space.
508 Afr. J. Bus. Manage.

Table 1. Variables with impacts on trip generation and attraction based on the goal of the trip.

Trip goals Generation Attraction

Occupation in the residence area Occupation in the working area
Population Business/administrative/agricultural/industrial
Residential space Land space
Number of residential buildings
Work trips Business/administrative/agricultural/industrial
Population density
building space
Household number
Average of automobile per household Number of Business/administrative/
Average price of the one square meter of the land agricultural/industrial units

Educational Trips Population

Schools spaces
Population of the students
Car Ownership Number of schools/ number of students/
Residential space number of schools classes.
Traffic zone space Number of universities/ number of universities
Average of automobile per household students

Population
Business land space
Occupation in the residence area
Household numbers
Shopping trips Occupation in the working area
Residential space
Car Ownership Business land use space
Residential Space Land/building price Number of business units

Population Number of retail stores

Number of residential buildings Number and capacity of cinemas/ mosques/
Social trips Car Ownership exhibition centers/ parks/ hospitals
Social land use space
Distance to entertainment complexes
Population

Trips that are not started

All generation variables All attraction variables
from or ended to home

Fuzzy logic and fuzzy inference systems

Fuzzy logic is a form of multi-valued logic derived from
fuzzy set theory to deal with reasoning that is
approximate rather than precise. In contrast with "crisp
logic", where binary sets have binary logic, fuzzy logic
variables may have a truth value that ranges between 0
and 1 and is not constrained to the two truth values of
classic propositional logic (Novk et al., 1999). Fuzzy
inference is the process of formulating the mapping from
a given input to an output using fuzzy logic. The mapping
then provides a basis from which decisions can be made,
or patterns discerned. The process of fuzzy inference
involves:
i. Defining If-Then rules
ii. Defining membership functions
iii. Appling logical operations
There are two types of fuzzy inference systems that
usually can be implemented: Mamdani-type and Sugeno-
type. These two types of inference systems vary
somewhat in the way outputs are determined. Fuzzy
inference systems have been successfully applied in
fields such as automatic control, data classification,
decision analysis, expert systems, and computer vision.
Because of its multidisciplinary nature, fuzzy inference
systems are associated with a number of names, such as
fuzzy-rule-based systems, fuzzy expert systems, fuzzy
modeling, fuzzy associative memory, fuzzy logic
controllers, and simply (and ambiguously) fuzzy systems.
The input space variables could be summarized as
Tables 2 and 3.
Mamdani's fuzzy inference method is the most
commonly seen fuzzy methodology. Mamdani's method
was among the first control systems built using fuzzy set
 Jassbi et al. 509

Table 2. Generation variables (input space variables).

Input space variables Generation variables

Occupation in the residence area
Population
Residential space
Population density
Number of households
Car ownership rate
Average price of one square meter of land
Students population
Traffic zone space
Number of residential buildings
Distance to entertainment complexes
Adapted from Tehran comprehensive transportation and traffic studies Co. (TCTTS).
(http://trafficstudy.tehran.ir)

Table 3. Attraction variables (input space variables).

Input space variables Attraction variables

Occupation in the working area
Business/ Administrative/Agricultural/Industrial Land Space
Administrative building space
Number of Administrative/Business/Industrial Buildings
Schools space
Number of Students/Schools/Classes
Number of Universities/Students
Number of Retailers
Number and Capacity of Cinemas/Mosques/ Exhibitions/
Parks/Hospitals
Sport and Social Centers Spaces
Adapted from Tehran comprehensive transportation and traffic studies Co. (TCTTS). (http://trafficstudy.tehran.ir).

theory. It was proposed in 1975 by Ibrahim Mamdani
(Mamdani 1975) as an attempt to control a steam engine
and boiler combination by synthesizing a set of linguistic
control rules obtained from experienced human
operators. As the most part of fuzzy logic are common
knowledge now, readers are referenced to bibliography
(Jang 1997, Mamdani 1975, Sugeno 1985).
PROBLEM FORMULATION
In order to forecast the trips based on fuzzy inference approach, a
fuzzy rule base must be developed. The relations between varia-
bles would form the fuzzy rule base. These relations have been
adapted from:
i. Transportation experts opinions about the impacts of the input
space variables on the number of trips
ii. Literature review: Past studies including soft and hard approaches
that revealed the impacts of the generation and attraction variables
on trip distributions.
iii. Transportation planning procedures in metropolises (Tehran
Comprehensive Traffic Study Company).
To map input space to output space, different fuzzy scenarios could
be considered. Figure 2 illustrates the framework of conceptual
fuzzy model that is used to forecast the number of trips in this work.
As it illustrated in Figure 2, three independent fuzzy inference sys-
tems are used. The first FIS is aimed to map generation variables to
number of generated trips . The second FIS is designed to map
attraction variables to number of attracted trips . At the end, the
third FIS is designed to combine the output of the first and second
FIS.
RESULTS
As it is shown in Figure 2, this scenario consists of three
phases in which each phase has its own FIS.
510 Afr. J. Bus. Manage.
Figure 2. Conceptual fuzzy model: Mapping trip generation and attraction variables to total number of trips between
two given regions.
Phase I
Mapping trip generation variables as input space to total
number of generated trips by the given region ( ), as
the output space using a proper FIS as the function
approximator.
Phase II
Mapping trip attraction variables as input space to total
number of attracted trips by the given region ( ), as the
output space using a proper FIS as the function
approximator.
Phase III
Aggregation of and for two given regions and
calculating the final total number of trips between two
regions ( ). Every phase has its own FIS that maps
input space to output space. As it shown in the problem
definition section, the final solution of the problem would
pass through three phases. The modeling procedure is:
Phase I
The initial fuzzy rules and membership functions types
and shapes are adjusted based on experts opinions. In
order to catch experts subjective pattern about the
impacts of generation variables on number of generated
trips, a proper fuzzy questionnaire is designed to ask
about the relations. The results are aggregated and 70
initial rules are generated. Enjoying rules reduction
techniques, number of rules has been reduced to 48. The
structure of rules is for example as follows:
If is low and then is medium
In fact, the whole fuzzy system is an exploration of
experts subjective pattern that maps input space to
output space. Input space consists of 11 demographic
variables ( ) with direct impacts on trip generation that
are presented in Table 2. The designed FIS for this
phase is a Mamdani type fuzzy inference system as
illustrated in Figure 3.
Phase II
The structure of modeling in this phase is similar to
Phase I. Input space consists of 10 demographic
variables ( ) with direct impacts on trip attraction of the
exact region that are presented in Table 3.
The designed FIS for this phase is a Mamdani type
fuzzy inference system as shown in Figure 4. Similar to
phase I rule generation procedure, fuzzy rule base in this
phase is shaped based on transportation experts
opinions. After aggregation of experts opinions and
eliminating rules overlaps, 39 rules are selected. Now, we
have two different FIS that map demographic variables to
trip attraction and generation conditions of two given
regions, respectively. In order to forecast the trip flows
between an OD pair, the output of the previous phases
have to be combined in a new FIS.
Phase III
Based on Phases I and II, the trip generation condition of
the origin and trip attraction condition of the destination
are known. Thus, we need to design another FIS to map
trip attraction condition, as input space to trip generation
condition, as output space. Figure 5 shows this procedure.
 Jassbi et al. 511

Figure 3. Phase I fuzzy inference system.

Figure 4. Phase II Fuzzy Inference System.

this procedure. This fuzzy inference system accepts the output of Phase II fuzzy inference system. Rule base
outputs of Phases I and II as its inputs. Here, Tproduct is of this fuzzy inference system consists of 11 rules that
the output of Phase I fuzzy inference system and Tattract is are adapted from transportation experts. The output of
512 Afr. J. Bus. Manage.
Figure 5. Phase III fuzzy inference system.
Figure 6. Surface of phase III FIS rules.
the model is the number of trips between two given
regions that is represented by Tnum. Figure 6 visualized
the surface of number of trips, as the output versus trip
attraction condition and trip generation condition, as the
input.
The three phases model, maps demographical
variables to number of trips. In order to forecast the
number of trips between two given regions, demographic
variables must be fed to the model and result would be
the number of trips. Figure 7 shows the block diagram of
continuous simulated framework of the model.
Conclusion
Trip, as defined, to move between origin to destination
by mode on route in an exact period of time, is
completely a human choice that is made based on
conditions. Here we defined the condition as the
combination of variables with impacts on reasons of the
trips. The reasons are social variables that made
commuters to move from exact location to another one in
a metropolitan area. These variables are, operative in trip
generation and trip attraction of regions. As it mentioned

Figure 7. Proposed fuzzy Simulink model.
in introduction section of the paper, the key to successful
forecasting of the future is to recognize the existing
patterns correctly. In fact we need functions to help us
discover existing patterns of trips between regions.
Because of fuzzy nature of human decision making
process, it seems that phenomena that are related to
human choice could be explained using fuzzy logic more
accurately. In this paper a logical framework is proposed
based on fuzzy inference systems to approximate trip
distribution function.
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