Tropics Update: August 9, 2010---Page 1

In this update:
Tropical development possible in the central Atlantic Ocean and southeastern
Gulf of Mexico
Potential tracks and intensity
Latest Information: Satellite
imagery from this morning and
early this afternoon indicate that
two tropical waves, one located
in the central Atlantic and one in
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico,
are gradually getting better
organized and may develop into
tropical depressions within the
next day or two.

Designated as areas of interest

93L (central Atlantic) and 94L
(Gulf of Mexico), conditions are
favorable for some development

and the National Hurricane Center is

forecasting a 70% chance that the
Atlantic system could become a
depression by Wednesday and a 30%
chance that the Gulf of Mexico system
may become a tropical depression within
the next day or two.

At 8am EDT Monday, 94L was located

approximately 40 miles southwest of
Fort Myers, Florida in the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico, with 93L just over 2,000
miles east of southern Florida.

Track Forecast: As compared to early

morning computer model tracks, it
appears that 94L “jumped” the Florida
Peninsula. This is somewhat true. The
system has been interacting with an old
frontal boundary over the area and with
elongated weak systems, there can be
time where weak circulations form and dissipate in several locations, especially near a frontal boundary. Last
night, there appeared to be a counter-clockwise circulation just off the coast of Cape Canaveral, but as the
morning approached, the circulation began to dissipate as another broad circulation center appeared near the
Naples/Fort Myers area. This “jumping” of circulations may have been due to interaction with land, a southern
movement of the dissipating front, interaction with an upper level low over the northern Bahamas and South
Florida, or the presence of mid and upper dry air being pulled into North Florida, or a combination of effects.
This scenario is actually more representative of an October tropical event, but with increasingly favorable
atmospheric conditions, this system will need to be monitored.
 Tropics Update: August 9, 2010 ---Page 2
Track Forecast (continued): Based on morning
computer models with the new position of the
disturbance, 94L is expected to move in a west
or west-northwest direction around 5-10 mph and
computer models show 94L reaching the
northern Gulf Coast near southeastern Louisiana
within the next 3 to 4 days.

Intensity forecast: Based on satellite derived

winds and observations, maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be near 25mph.
Development should be slow to occur due to the
presence of dry air over the Panhandle and far
northern Gulf of Mexico, but wind shear in the
area is very weak and there is plenty of warm
water. Thus, computer intensity models have 94L
slowly intensifying as it moves further away from
the Florida coast. If the system gets a better
defined circulation center, it could become a
tropical depression. Some computer models
suggest it could even reach tropical storm
strength just before moving inland later this week
(the next names on the 2010 Hurricane list are
Danielle and Earl).

Potential impacts: The severity of impacts will likely be

dependent on the eventual track and strength of the Gulf
system, but currents forecasts indicate the winds near the
Panhandle coast and over the coastal waters may gust as
high as 25 knots, beginning Tuesday and continuing through Wednesday afternoon. Waves will also increase,
mainly between 2 and 4 feet near shore and 4-6 feet offshore. Due to the presence of dry air over northern
Florida, the heavier concentration of storm activity may remain south and east of the center, similar to
Claudette of last year.
 Tropics Update: August 9, 2010---Page 3
As for 93L…It has a defined circulation center, but what is keeping this system from being named a tropical
depression is the lack of storm activity near the center. Thunderstorm banding features are gradually
developing closer to the center of the system and if current trends continue, it may be named the next tropical
depression of the 2010 season (#5 is next), that is, if it develops before the Gulf of Mexico system, 94L. Most
computer models agree that this will eventually become a tropical storm and possibly even a hurricane, but
fortunately, computer track models keep this storm well away from the U.S. coastline, being steered initially
towards the west-northwest at 10-15mph for the next day or
two and then steered northward around the southern edge of
the Azores high pressure system over the north Atlantic, then
being steered north and northeast as a strong area of low
pressure area and frontal system moves through the Atlantic
by mid-week.

Summary:
A broad circulation is developing near a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico and storm activity associated with a tropical low in the central Atlantic
Ocean is also becoming better organized.
Conditions are favorable for some development of both systems.
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 70% chance that the Atlantic system could become a
depression by Wednesday and a 30% chance that the Gulf of Mexico system may become a tropical
depression within the next day or two.
The Gulf system is located approximately 40 miles southwest of Fort Myers, Florida, with the Atlantic
system just over 2,000 miles east of southern Florida.
The Gulf low is forecast to move northwest, moving inland near southern Louisiana in 3 to 4 days.
The Atlantic low pressure system is not expected to be a threat to the U.S.
Additional information can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov

The next full update will be issued Tuesday afternoon.

Amy Godsey and Michelle Palmer
State Meteorologist Deputy State Meteorologist
Florida Division of Emergency Management
Amy.Godsey@em.myflorida.com
Phone: (850) 617-9121 www.FloridaDisaster.org