Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Cancun, Mexico
Presented by:
Jonathan M. Berger
Vice President ICF
jberger@icf.com
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Todays Agenda
1 1
MRO Forecast
2 2
The current
commercial 2016 Global Commercial Air Transport Fleet
air transport fleet Latin
consists of under America Africa
Regional
28K aircraft; over Jet Narrowbody 7% Asia
Jet 5% Pacific
half are narrowbody Turboprop
13%
North
aircraft America
28%
14% 27,957 54% 30% 27,957
Aircraft Aircraft
19%
Widebody 5%
Jet 25%
Middle East
Europe
20,000
25%
15,000
33% 4.8%
28%
10,000
0 3.2% Avg.
2016 2026
30%
22%
Asia Pacific
Components
9 9
Driven by low fuel 2016 was a historic year for airline
costs and profitability
consolidation, the
global airline Global Airline Profitability, 1997 - 2017F
industry achieved $USD
Billions
$35.6B Africa, ($0.8B)
record profitability $40
Latin America, $0.2B
of over $35B USD in $30
Middle East, $0.3B
2016 $20 Asia Pacific, $6.3B
-$10
-$20
-$30
1. Labor ~ 20%:
Profit sharing
Investors,
Wage increases
42%
Other capex
2. Capex ~ 38%: 10%
Fleet renewal & cabin Labor,
upgrades 20% Profit Sharing
Facilities, offices, lounges Capex,
15%
Equity partner investments 38%
3. Investors ~ 42%:
Stock buy-backs Equity Wage
Dividends Investments Increases
Debt repayment 5% Fleet 5%
23%
$35 12%
$30
10%
$25
8%
$20
6%
$15
4%
$10
$5 2%
$0 0%
15 15
The good news
Latin American GDP Growth
After a half decade
of economic decline, 5.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
Note: All GDP Growth are calculated based on constant price (nation currency)
Source: IMF Economic Outlook April 2016, ICF analysis 16 16
In 2017, while most 6.0%
4.0%
0.0%
modest, but steady -2.0%
10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
0.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
United States
Note: All GDP Growth are calculated based on constant price (nation currency)
Source: IMF Economic Outlook April 2016, ICF analysis 17 17
Latin America is in
the midst of an LCC Market Share (seats offered) by Global Region
LCC Renaissance
60%
49% Domestic
50%
Intra-regional
Copa restructuring Copa International 40%
40% 38%
Colombia into new ultra-LCC
called Wingo 30%
30%
VivaColombia launches 24%
21% 20% 20%
subsidiary Viva Air in Peru
20%
Flybondi plans to launch 13%
ultra-LCC in Argentina in 2017 9%
10% 7% 6% 6%
4% 3%
Chilean based Sky Airline
switching its business model 0%
to ultra-LCC
Mexican LCC Volaris
announces new subsidiary in
San Jose, Cost Rica
Brazil
United States
20 20
Commercial aircraft
OEM production Commercial Aircraft OEM Production Backlog
backlog remains at
historical highs Order Backlog/
Backlog % Active Fleet
16,000 70%
2,000 10%
0 0%
Advantage = Airbus
Source: ICF analysis 23 23
January 25-26, 2017
Cancun, Mexico
THANK YOU!
For questions regarding this Jonathan M. Berger
presentation, please contact: Vice President Aerospace & MRO Advisory
jberger@icf.com +1 404.819.7669
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ICF provides a full range of Aerospace &
MRO advisory services
25 25
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