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They responded to CNBCs invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were
collected on September 14-16, 2017. Participants were not required to answer every question.
This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those
who did accept our invitation.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Raise interest
rates 0%
Lower interest
rates 0%
Keep rates
unchanged 100%
Don't know/
unsure 0%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
(For the 98% answering the next move will be to raise rates)
Oct 0%
Nov 2%
Dec 76%
Jan '18 2%
Average:
Feb 0% January
2018
Mar 17%
Apr 0%
May 0%
Jun 0%
Jul 0%
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.16
2.98 3.03
3.00
2.78 2.85
2.66
2.50
Average
2.50
1.97
2.00 2008 average: 2.63
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Nov 1 Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14 May 2 Jun 13 Jul 25 Sep 19
Survey Dates
Note: For 2018, 2% of respondents said the Fed would cut rates
27%
Approve 29%
39%
49%
Disapprove 51%
49%
24%
Don't know/
unsure 20%
12%
50%
Approve 43%
63%
26%
Disapprove 36%
29%
24%
Don't
know/ 21%
unsure
7%
Avg. forecast
Mar 14 May 2 June 13 July 25 Sept 19
90%
80%
70%
64%
62% Too optimistic
60% 56%
56%
50%
50%
44%
47%
40% Realistic
42% 41%
39% 39%
36%
30%
32% 31%
20%
Don't know/unsure
11% 10%
Too pessimstic
10%
5% 5% 7%
2% 3% 2% 3%
0%
Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14 May 2 Jun 13 Jul 25 Sep 19
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Don't
know/ 0%
unsure
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Oct 27%
Feb 0%
Mar 2%
Apr 0%
May 2%
Jun 7%
Jul 0%
Aug 0%
After
Aug '18 2%
Don't
know 12%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
0 15%
5 0%
Average:
10 3%
27
15 5% billion
euros
20 15%
25 8%
Billions of euros
30 18%
35 0%
40 28%
45 3%
50 8%
55 0%
60 0%
More
than 60
0%
11. Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock index will
be on ?
2,700
2588 2593
2,600
2564
2555
2562 2515
2,500
2453 2493
2480
2427
2442
2,400
2409
2357
2354
2,300 2275
2244
2223
2249 2255
2234 2242
2,200
2200
2158
2,100
2107
2,000
1,900
1,800
Dec Jan Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep
15 15 26 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14 2 13 25 19
2016 2017
Survey Dates
4.0%
3.44% 3.43%
3.5%
3.37%
3.22%
3.09%
3.05%
2.96%
3.0% 2.88%
3.03%
2.90%
2.95%
2.88%
2.83%
2.54% 2.74%
2.5% 2.61%
2.58% 2.59%
2.26%2.28%
2.42%
2.24% 2.25%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
Dec Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep
15 26 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14 2 13 25 19
2016 2017
Survey Dates
13. Where do you expect the fed funds target rate will
be on ?
Dec 31, 2017 Dec 31, 2018 Dec 31, 2019
3.0%
2.73%
2.70% 2.68%
2.67%
2.56%
2.49%
2.5%
2.25% 2.42%
2.17% 2.19%
2.22% 2.15%
2.07% 2.10% 2.06%
2.03%
2.0%
1.87%
2.02%
1.81%
1.62%
1.61%
1.61% 1.60% 1.78%
1.69%
1.49%
1.5% 1.43% 1.42%
1.39%
1.32%
1.43% 1.26%
1.22% 1.37% 1.35%
1.18% 1.16%
1.0% 1.09%
0.5%
0.0%
Dec Jan Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep
15 15 26 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14 2 13 25 19
2016 2017
14. At what fed funds level will the Federal Reserve stop
hiking rates in the current cycle? That is, what will be the
terminal rate?
4.0%
3.5%
3.30%
3.20%
3.17%
3.11%
3.06%
3.16%
2.98% 2.95%
3.0% 3.04% 2.94%
2.92% 2.85%
2.91%
2.85%2.79% 2.73% 2.80%
2.65%
2.69%
2.65% 2.64% 2.66%
2.58% 2.48%
2.5% 2.56%
2.42% 2.44%
2.29%
2.0%
Sep 16
Oct 28
Sept 16
Oct 27
Jan 26 '16
Sep 20
Sep 19
Jan 27, '15
Mar 17
Jun 16
Mar 15
Jun 14
Jan 31 '17
Jul 28
Jul 26
Mar 14
Jun 13
Aug 20
Jul 25
Apr 28
Aug 25
Apr 26
Aug 24
Dec 16
Dec 15
Dec 13
Nov 1
May 2
Survey Dates
3.0%
+2.58%
+2.43% +2.51%
+2.41% +2.45%
2.4% 2.45%
+2.38%
+2.28%
+2.26% +2.25%
+2.31%
2.0%
1.8%
Dec Jan 26 Mar Apr Jun Aug Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
Jul 26 Nov 1 Jan 31 May 2 Jul 25
15 '16 15 26 14 24 20 13 14 13 19
2017 +2.43 +2.31 +2.41 +2.21 +2.25 +2.26 +2.24 +2.28 +2.16 +2.57 +2.51 +2.38 +2.24 +2.25 2.25% 2.21%
2018 +2.76 +2.75 +2.62 +2.58 +2.45 2.45% 2.60%
2.8%
2.64%
2.6% 2.57%
2.50%
2.44%
2.38%
2.4%
2.36% 2.37%
2.24% 2.28%
2.20% 2.23%
2.2% 2.16% 2.15%
2.12%
2.13% 2.14%
2.12% 2.12%
2.09%
2.07%
2.0%
2.02% 1.92%
1.88%
1.8%
1.6%
Survey Dates
Sep 28%
Oct 40%
Nov 8%
Dec 8%
Feb 0%
Mar 0%
Apr 0%
May 0%
Jun 0% Average:
October '17
Jul 0%
Dec 0%
Jan '19 0%
Feb 0%
Mar 0%
Apr 0%
May 0%
Never 3%
Jul 25 Sep 19
Extremely negative Neutral Extremely positive
-5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 +0.0 +1.0 +2.0 +3.0 +4.0 +5.0
-0.25
Economic growth
-0.21
-0.80
Stocks
-0.83
-1.15
Bonds
+0.33
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Yes 83%
No 7%
Don't know/
unsure 10%
22. What target size for its balance do you believe the
Federal Reserve will adopt?
Trillions of dollars
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
Jun
13 2.4
Survey dates
Jul
25 2.5
Sep
19 2.4
23. Roughly how many years will the Fed take to reach
this goal?
Years
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Jun
13 4.6
Survey dates
Jul
25 4.6
Sep
19 4.4
11%
5%
Yes 11%
10%
38%
82%
74%
No 68%
75%
53%
7%
21%
Don't
know/ 21%
unsure
15%
10%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Yes 59%
No 29%
Don't
know/ 12%
unsure
50%
50%
24% 24%
22% 19%
20% 20% 20%
14% 17%
13%
10% 10%
9%
Don't know
0% 3%
Dec 13 Jan 31 Jun 13 Jul 25 Sep 19
Survey Dates
Note: Only responses that received 10% or more on any survey date are shown.
Jul 25 Sep 19
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
38%
Yes
53%
35%
No
15%
Don't 28%
know/
unsure
33%
Jul 25 Sep 19
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Tighter 35%
monetary
policy 39%
Looser 10%
monetary
policy 7%
Roughly
unchanged 48%
monetary
policy 49%
Don't 8%
know/
unsure 5%
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
European elections
Immigration policy
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
Apr 30 2 3 2 1
13 0 1 0 0 2 2 1 0
1 2 2 1
Jun 18 5 8 0 3 3 0 3 0
3 2 1 1
Jul 30 8 0 2 0 2 2 0 4 4
2 2 1
Sep 17 4 7 2 2 0 4 8 7 2
2 2 1
Oct 29 8 9 4 3 3 3 8 3 0
3 2 1
Dec 17 5 2 9 2 0 2 5 2 2
Jan 28 2 3 1 2
'14 7 1 0 2 0 0 2 1 0
1 2 2 1
Mar 18 0 3 6 3 5 0 5 8 0
2 2 1 1
Apr 28 3 6 1 3 5 0 8 8 3 0
1 2 1 1 1 1
Jul 29 2 9 2 6 3 0 2 2 2 3
2 2 1 1
Sep 16 6 6 9 6 3 0 6 1 1 3
3 1 1 1
Oct 28 1 8 5 3 3 0 0 8 8 3
4 1 1 1
Dec 16 0 4 4 3 6 0 3 4 3 0
Jan 27 1 1 4 1
'15 0 3 9 0 0 0 6 6 1 6 6 0
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
European elections
Immigration policy
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
1 2 1 1
Mar 17 6 4 0 3 6 0 6 8 8 7 4 0
1 1 2 1
April 28 3 1 8 3 0 0 6 1 8 8 9 3
1 1 2 2 1
Jun 16 3 7 3 0 0 0 4 5 2 6 1 0
2 1 2
Jul 28 6 1 9 0 0 0 2 6 9 9 9 0
1 4 1
Sept 16 0 6 2 0 4 0 0 8 5 8 4 2
1 4 1
Oct 27 0 8 5 3 8 0 8 3 1 0 5 0
1 1 4 1
Dec 15 0 0 5 0 0 0 8 0 4 5 3 5 0
Jan 26 1 4 2
'16 0 0 5 0 3 0 0 5 4 8 0 3 3
2 3 2
Mar 15 5 1 3 0 0 0 5 5 3 5 0 3 1 0
2 3 1
Apr 26 0 2 2 2 2 0 0 7 6 9 0 7 1 2
2 2 1 1
Jun 14 0 8 5 3 0 0 3 0 8 8 0 5 3 0 0
2 1 2
Jul 26 2 0 7 2 2 0 2 0 2 7 0 7 7 7 2
1 3 1 1
Aug 24 3 9 3 3 0 0 3 3 1 3 3 6 4 1 0
1 1 3 1
Sep 20 0 6 1 3 0 0 0 3 0 8 5 5 8 1 0
2 3
Nov 1 3 7 8 0 3 0 8 3 2 3 0 0 5 8 0
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
European elections
Immigration policy
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
1 2
Dec 13 5 9 2 7 0 0 7 7 9 0 2 7 8 5 2
Jan 31 1 1 5 1
'17 0 5 3 3 0 0 0 3 0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
4 1
Mar 14 0 7 2 2 0 0 0 7 4 7 0 2 4 7 4 3 0
2 2 1
May 2 0 8 3 3 0 0 0 5 4 5 0 0 5 6 8 3 0
2 1 1
Jun 13 0 5 5 5 0 3 0 3 1 8 5 0 0 6 8 0 8 3 0
1 1 2 1
Jul 25 0 5 5 3 3 0 0 0 3 8 5 0 0 0 5 0 8 8 0
1 1 3
Sep 19 0 2 2 0 2 0 5 2 7 0 7 2 0 2 2 0 7 7 0
Other responses:
36.1%
This survey:
35%
34.0% 18.8%
30%
28.5% 28.8%
26.0%
25.9%
25.3%
25.5%
25% 24.4%
23.5%
22.9% 24.1%
23.2%
22.1%
22.2%
20.6% 21.6%
20.4% 21.1%
20% 20.3% 18.9%
19.3%
10%
Jan 27 '15
Mar 17
Jun 16
Jul 28
Jan 15 '16
Mar 15
Jun 14
Jan 31 '17
Mar 14
Aug 11, '11
Mar 16
Mar 19
Jun 18
Jan 28 '14
Mar 18
Jul 26
Jun 13
Sep 19
Jul 31
Jul 30
Jul 29
Sep 16
Dec 16
Dec 15
Sep 20
Jul 25
Dec 13
Jan 23, '12
Sep 12
Dec 11
Jan 29, '13
Dec 17
April 28
Sept 16
Aug 24
May 2
Sep 192
Oct 31
Sep 6
Oct 29
Oct 28
Oct 27
Nov 1
Apr 24
Apr 30
Apr 28
Jan 26
Apr 26
Other
17%
Currencies
2%
Fixed Income
12% Economics
54%
Equities
15%
Comments:
I think they'll still start shrinking their balance sheet this month, but
will go extremely slowly to avoid a significant rise in long-term bond
yields while people are rebuilding their homes. This is good politics,
not necessarily good policy.
Starting with the Federal Reserve, even if slower than we would like
but including the Bank of Canada, the ECB and now the Bank of
England, actual or potential alteration on quantitative ease appears.