Trc trt t ang n

inh Hong Thng

Ch Hi tho H 2017 ny kh rng, v c hai thc th (two entities) Vit Nam

v Trt t th gii u chng chnh v bt nh nh mi s v thng trong ci
i. Trc trt t ang n1 c chn lm u v Trt t mi cha c v
Vit Nam hin vn cn trong trng thi trc ngng ca ci cha c y. Bi vit
di y m t s tng tc gia Vit Nam vi trt t ang nh hnh, gii thch mt
s chiu kch ca qu trnh tng tc, kt hp a ra mt vi d bo cng nh khuyn
ngh chnh sch cho tng lai. Ni dung c trnh by thnh ba phn: Th nht
cp nhng vn mang tnh nguyn tc, nhng nht ct mi (new cross-cutting
issues) trong mi tng quan gia Vit Nam vi trt t ang n. Cc vn ny
th hin qua vic Vit Nam (VN) nhn thc th no v hnh hi trt t mi? c
nhng i sch no trn thc t thch nghi v pht trin trong ci trt t ang n
y? Phn th hai m t nhng thch thc VN phi i mt trong qu trnh tng tc
vi trt t ang nh hnh. Trong hng lot cc thch thc y, y nu my chnh:
i) Sng ngm trong bang giao VitTrung; ii) Thi VN i vi i d n Nht
i nht l (OBOR); iii) Th lng nan c v ni tr ln ngoi giao ca t nc; iv)
M hnh pht trin ca t nc v v) Vn sc mnh mm (soft power) ca VN.
Th ba l phn kin ngh chnh sch, nhc li Paradigm P&DOWN2 (M thc B
ao) nh mt gi gii php tng th gp phn ha gii cc thch thc nu trong
phn th hai. (Vit Nam trong bi ny a phn xin hiu l Ban Lnh o CSVN v
cc th ch ngnh nc gp phn hoch nh/thc thi chnh sch).
ng thua trn sn nh...
Hy hnh dung khung kh quan h (relationship paradigm3) gia VN vi ci trt t
cha c thng qua hai case-studies: v Trung Quc a gin khoan HD981 vo

1
Bi vit ca inh Hong Thng, t Vin Cc vn pht trin Vit Nam (VIDS), gi ti Hi tho H 2017, phc v
ch Vit Nam v Trt t th gii mi, ti i hc Tng hp Etvs Lornd, Budapest, Hungary, t 31/8 n
1/9/2017. Bi vit mi dng draft, ngh khoan trch dn, hon ton do Ban T chc quyt nh gi ti nhng a ch
no, c l sau Hi tho s c iu chnh theo gp ca cc bc trng thng, lm nn mt research and social
criticism hn l review nh hin nay ri hng cng b. Thanks for everybodys understanding!
2
P&DOWN pht m gn vi t B ao cho d nh. Xem c bi: https://caphesach.wordpress.com/2013/11/16/giai-
phap-nao-cho-van-de-bien-dong-hau-cac-cap-cao/
Page1

3
In this book, Godfrey Barrett-Lennard challenges the individualist focus of traditionalist psychology by proposing that
the human condition is basically relational and interdependent. Rich in depth and scope, The Relationship Paradigm
explores relationship systems over an absorbing vista of multiple connections. This includes relations within the self,
vng c quyn kinh t ca VN, thng 5/2014 v v Trung Quc p ta phi ngng cc
hot ng khoan thm d du kh ngay ti khu vc quanh Bi T Chnh (Vanguard
Bank), cng thuc thm lc a v vng c quyn kinh t ca ta, thng 7/2017. Ngay
t trc khi xy ra cc s c y, ch trng mun lm bn vi tt c v nn ngoi
giao quc phng ba khng bc l nhiu gii hn trong qu trnh bo v an ninh
v thc y pht trin ca t nc. Cc tc gi nc ngoi u nhn nh, trong nhiu
trng hp, c v nh VN hon ton thn c th c4. Tnh thi s ca bi vit: i
tc chin lc Ty Ban Nha u ri?5 v tnh khoa hc ca ti: Vietnam foreign
policy: the rationale of its instruments towards China in solving South China Sea
disputes since HD-981 incident in 20146 cn c thm nh v nh gi li. Ti
y, nn khuyn khch cc ti tng t, hn nhin tm mc cao hn, phm vi bao
qut hn. Chng hn, so snh cc v scandals t trc n nay vi Trung Quc, bn
v h thng i tc chin lc (TCL) v hai phin bn i tc ton din (TTD)
v i tc chin lc ton din (TCLTD) trong chnh sch i ngoi ca VN.
Vi mu tin ngn7, nh bo Bill Hayton sng 24/7 cho bit, trung tun thng 7, lc
lng kim ng trong nc vi trn 30 tu v nhiu tu chp php khc vt ln vi
cc tu Trung Quc khu vc quanh Bi T Chnh, cch Vng Tu 229 hi l v pha
ng Nam. Tuy nhin, n 29/7, Hayton ln BBC thanh minh, ci tin anh ta a cha
chc chn lm. Theo Reuters th hin cha c du hiu Vit Nam ngng khoan du
block 136/03 nh BBC v GS. Thayer cng b v chnh Thayer cng ni mi chuyn
cha r lm. D lun bn khon, chng nh BBC v Carl Thayer i nh thu cho
Trung Quc. Hnh dung ra hng trm tu Trung Quc t vy cht Bi T Chnh, cn
cc tu VN dng cm ngn chn khng cho HD760 ca Trung Quc cng nhng tu
h tng lm le vt qua ln ranh tin vo thm lc a pha Nam nc ta... Tt c
l ng hay sai? Ti sao phi du ngi dn nhng cu chuyn nghim trng ny? Bt
lun chng ta buc phi ngng khoan thm d hay chng ta vn cn li, vic khng
minh bch ha thng tin trong thi i ngy nay nh va qua l mt h sch. Cu
chuyn HD981 cch y ba nm li tr v vi bi hc Trung Quc dng ng

interpersonal relationships, relationships between and within communities, organizations and nations. Xem chi tit ti:
https://he.palgrave.com/page/detail/The-Relationship-Paradigm/?K=9781137329721
4
http://www.bbc.com/vietnamese/vietnam-40763836
5
https://www.voatiengviet.com/a/tu-chinh-viet-nam-trung-quoc-truong-sa-repsol/3959779.html
6
y l mt ti lun vn Thc s, ti Vin cc vn x hi (ISS), La Haye, H Lan, nm 2015. Xem ton vn:
Page2

file:///C:/Users/Admin/Desktop/VNguyen_oodledata_temp_turnitintool_1592974514._605_1447232201_3205.pdf
7
http://www.bbc.com/vietnamese/vietnam-40701910
kch ty nh th no, khi y, nhng la u? Nay th chng ta bit khi
mi chuyn c an bi (by China). Cn ln ny, tin vo hay li ra l cu chuyn
thuc v tng quan lc lng ni chung, ch khng ch xung quanh Vanguard Bank.
Nhng vic VN quyt nh khoan thm d L 136/03 v nhiu l khc, khng ch l
d n khai thc du kh n thun, m cn khng nh ch quyn ca t nc trn
vng bin ny. Mi din tin trn Bin ng rt phc tp v nhiu b n, VN kin tr
l ng. Chin tranh ch l bin php ti hu. Li mt bc a ni v ra To n
trng ti quc t LHQ v cng l v ho bnh c th l thng sch. Nhng cu
chuyn trn Bi T Chnh hin nay bo hiu tin trnh bt trc trong tng quan gia
VN vi mt trt t do Trung Quc thao tng. Chng ta c th i mt vi th lng
nan c i ni ln i ngoi, nu khng bch ha kp thi cc vn lin quan n
c lp, ch quyn quc gia cho mi ngi dn v cho cng ng quc t bit.
ng thua trn sn nh, VN khng th ch dng li trc ngng ca trt t, m
phi ch ng tip cn v i quc t. 432 trang sch ca TS. Kissinger v World
Order8 cn c bn tho mt cch ton din, y ch cp n mt nhn xt
kinh in. Theo ng Tin s, cha bao gi c mt "Trt t th gii" theo ng ngha
academic ca t ny. Trong hu ht cc giai on lch s, cc nn vn minh t a
ra nhng nh ngha ca ring mnh v Trt t. Mi ni li coi chnh mnh l trung
tm ca th gii v hnh dung nhng nguyn tc c trng ca mnh nh th chng
mang tnh ph qut. Trung Quc ngh ra mt th bc vn ha ton thin h vi mt
hong ng trn u. chu u, Rome tng mnh sng gia nhng k man r;
khi Rome phn r, ngi chu u tinh ch li khi nim v s cn bng ca cc nh
nc ch quyn v tm cch xut khu n i khp th gii. Islam, trong nhng th k
u, coi mnh l nh l thc th chnh tr chnh ng duy nht ca th gii v quyt
tm m rng n cho ti khi th gii tr nn ha hp bi nhng nguyn tc tn gio.
Nc M, d sinh sau mun, vn lun nui dng mt nim tin v kh nng p
dng ton cu m hnh dn ch, mt nim tin /ang nh hnh nhng chnh sch ca
h t trc. Cc nh nghin cu t Washington thng k, sut c chn i tng
thng M, t Harry Truman cho ti Georg H.W. Bush (cha), vi tnh cch v ngun
gc xut thn hon ton khc nhau, xy dng ln mt Trt t kiu M: ci m,
t do, nng ng v da trn lut php. y vy m, cha y na nm sau khi ln cm
quyn, trong pht biu ti Hamburg (c) thng 7 va qua, Tng thng Trump
tuyn b rng trt t y khng cn ph hp na9.
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8
http://tramdoc.vn/sach-moi/trat-tu-the-gioi-b5w7W.html
9
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/trump-the-g-20-the-end-american-superiority-21487?page=show
Nhn dng v ng ph
inh Du 2017 ny dng nh l nm c nhiu glasnos v perestroika nht so vi vi
nm tr li y trong sinh hot quc t. Lin X cht v mt s quc gia vn ang
tang n sut hng chc nm nay. S sp m Putin gi l thm kch a-chnh tr
ln nht ca th k 20, din ra ngt nght ba thp nin, vy m Vit Nam vn
c/b gii thch tri ngc nhau. Ngi dn th hoan h: May m Lin X , nu
khng, gi ny chc chng mnh vn cn n bo bo. Cc nh t tng chuyn lo
chuyn triu nh th l gii ngc li. Cc ng ch ny sn xut ra c mt Ngh
quyt hn hoi quy kt Goorbachev phn bi ng. Nhng mt Lin bang hng
cng y p kho v kh ht nhn v cc loi v kh chin lc khc, mt chnh ng
ng o vi hng chc triu ng vin m Tng B th li l k phn bi th nghe
nghch nh qu. Cui cng nh ti cho ch ngha quc din bin ha
bnh n mc nh sp ton b ch X Vit (?). Du sao, vic chuyn sang h
thng quc t hu-Chin tranh lnh khng din ra ch yu bng bo lc l mt
phc lnh cho nhn loi. Mi y nht, trong nc mt vi d bo l tai khc
li c tung ra: Sau khi Lin X tan, gii quyt bi ton ng hc ca s pht
trin th chc chn n lt nc M s sp (?)10. Nu qu nh vy tht th ci
ch ngha quc no s lm cho n sp ? L gii cu chuyn r nh ban ngy,
xy ra cch y gn ba mi nm, cn cha ng ng. Lm th no c th nhn ra ci
cn nguyn ca nhng c knock-out (nhng c nh sp mt) i vi Trt t mi
trong tng lai, tht khng d t no.
C th hi ch quan, song cu chuyn Vit Nam v Trt t th gii mi chng khc
g cu chuyn v v hong n trong ng ngn ca Andersen11. Nhng s tht trn
trung v th gii, ai vn minh, ai lc lng, iu quan trng hn, ti sao c nc
giu, c nc ngho, c quc gia c nhn loi yu chung, c nc nhc n tn
thy kinh Cc i thn, xnh xang o m khng phi h khng bit! ng bao gi
ngh chng ta thng minh hn v s pht minh ra mt qu trng Colombus th hai.
Vn l phi tm ra nhng cu b dm ni ln s tht! Khng thy tc gi k, ch
b y c b h ly no khng. Sau nhiu suy on, c th kt lun l khng, v Dermak
ngy nay c bit n nh mt trong nhng ni ng sng nht trn hnh tinh ny.
Lin quan n ch Hi tho, khng cn phi m s nhiu, trch di dng gii
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10
http://www.chungta.com/nd/tu-lieu-tra-cuu/ban-ve-hien-tuong-donald-trump.html
11
http://www.vanchuongviet.org/index.php?comp=tacpham&action=detail&id=11306
elite minh ha chnh sch. thun tin, hy trch thng t Ngh quyt i hi
CSVN gn y nht hoc cc tuyn b cng khai ca T Tr.
Chnh thng v chnh thc, Vit Nam kh kim li trong vic a ra cc nh gi v
cc din quc t v cch ng ph vi Trt t ang nh hnh. Bo co chnh tr do
Tng B th Nguyn Ph Trng trnh by ti i hi XII ca ng sng 21/1/2016 vit
ngn gn: Nm nm qua, bn cnh nhng thi c, thun li, tnh hnh th gii, khu
vc c nhiu din bin rt phc tp; kinh t th gii phc hi chm; khng hong
chnh tr nhiu ni, nhiu nc; cnh tranh v nhiu mt ngy cng quyt lit gia
cc nc ln ti khu vc; din bin phc tp trn Bin ng... tc ng bt li n
nc ta12. Ngh quyt i hi XII, phn quc t, cng ch tm tt trong my : Bi
cnh tnh hnh th gii, khu vc din bin nhanh chng, rt phc tp, kh lng; t
nc ng trc nhiu vn mi, c c nhng thun li, thi c an xen vi nhng
kh khn, thch thc gay gt13. Hi ngh Ngoi giao ln th 29 (2226/8/2016) c
cp nht hn nhng cng ch nhn mnh kha cnh chnh sch, thay v i su nh gi
cc din (t nht l trn cng khai). Truyn thng phn nh sao chp cc pht biu
ca lnh o. Bo Nhn dn nhn mnh yu cu ngoi giao phi qun trit nguyn
tc d bt bin, ng vn bin v thm bn bt th. Qun i Nhn dn truyn
thng ip: Hot ng i ngoi l phng thc ha bnh hu hiu. Bo Tin tc
(Knh thng tin ca Chnh ph) dn : Thc lc v v th ca ngoi giao khng ch
th hin bng sc mnh vt cht, m cn c trong sc mnh mm. Ngi i biu
Nhn dn (bo ca Quc hi) nu i sch: Ngoi giao cn hin thc ha biu tng
cy tre Vit Nam Hu nh khng c mt t duy t ph no! Ngoi trng Phm
Bnh Minh khng nh cc iu kin hin nay kh nghit ng: bn ngoi, mi
trng chin lc ca nc ta v ang ni ln nhiu thch thc cha tng c, tc
ng trc tip n cc li ch an ninh v pht trin14.
Truyn thng l phi hi u nm nay cng c cp n cu trc an ninh: Nm
2017, tnh hnh quc t tip tc c nhng bin ng nhanh, phc tp, kh lng; u
tranh gia xu hng cu trc an ninh mi ang hnh thnh vi cu trc an ninh c
ngy cng quyt lit hn, bc l nhng mu thun phn nh xu th mi ca thi i.
Trong qu trnh chuyn ha cu trc an ninh ton cu t nh hng (a cc, a trung
tm) sang nh hnh (mt hay nhiu trung tm, tng nc hay nhm nc, khu vc

12
http://vov.vn/chinh-tri/dang/toan-van-bao-cao-do-tong-bi-thu-trinh-bay-tai-dai-hoi-xii-cua-dang-471408.vov
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13
http://baochinhphu/Dua-Nghi-quyet-Dai-hoi-XII-cua-Dang-vao-cuoc-song/Cong-bo-van-kien-Dai-hoi-XII.gp
14
Bi ca HT: http://baovannghe.com.vn/tu-hoi-nghi-ngoai-giao-lan-thu-29-suy-nghi-ve-van-nuoc-hom-nay-851.html
hay lin khu vc). Cc nc ln tip tc iu chnh chin lc, nng cao v th, bo
v li ch quc gia to ra s cn bng mi trong cn cn quyn lc khu vc v th
gii15. C th thy, Vit Nam nhn thc c s phc tp, tnh bt nh cao, khng
b qua cc kha cnh bt ton ca Trt t. ng ch , nh quen thuc theo
quy lut tin ho ca lch s, loi ngi nht nh s tin ti ch ngha x hi t c
nhn mnh ti cc din n. Nhng lun im hai phe, tnh thi i vn tr li m
nh trong nhn nh: Trt t mi s dn c xc lp theo nguyn tc hai cc, mt
bn l CNXH, nhn loi tin b ang u tranh v dn ch, ch quyn quc gia dn
tc, tin b x hi v quyn pht trin... V bn kia, l cc th lc ca ch ngha
quc, tp on t bn, cc nc theo ch ngha dn tc cc oan, cc th lc cc hu
nm chnh quyn, bn phn ng khng b quc t16. Vy phi chng quan im ny
coi Trung Quc, Bc Triu Tin, Vit Nam l mt cc, pha ngc li, M v t chc
khng b IS l cc i trng (?). Nu cn pht huy tip kiu t duy nh th ny
trong nhng nm ti, th khi quc gia hu s, th hi thnh vin no trong ci trt t
ang n, d l TCL hay TCLTD c th chia la vi VN? Hai v gin khoan
HD981 v HD760 l nhng bi hc t gi cn c bn lun mt cch rt ro trong
gii hoch nh chnh sch c th vt ln cch nh gi ni trn.
Th l gii
Nhng tng tc nh vy, c th l gii bng cc khi nim vay mn t th gii v
mi trng o, vi tn gi l nhng tng tc o (virtual interactions17), hay gi
tng trong tng tc (interactive fiction18). Ni th nhng khng phi th! in hnh
ca cc loi tng tc o, tng tc gi tng ny xut hin trong vn ha chnh
tr VN lu lm ri, nhng c bit l thi nhng nm 1990, l lc Trung ng
phi c n hai Ngh quyt 8A v 8B gii thch cng mt hin tng din ra Lin
Xng u. Ngh quyt 8A quy cho yu km ni ti l l do ch yu, 8B th quy
cho din bin ha bnh l l do chnh dn n s sp ca h thng. Nhng mc
cho Ngh quyt ni vy, cc i Ngoi trng, t Nguyn C Thch, Nguyn Mnh
Cm cho n Nguyn Dy Nin, Phm Gia Khim, Phm Bnh Minh (i hi VII
i hi XII), vn l nhng chnh khch khai sn ph thch trong vic c sy cho

15
http://vov.vn/quan-su-quoc-phong/the-gioi-nam-2017-tu-goc-nhin-an-ninh-quan-su-582346.vov
16
http://dangcongsan.vn/tu-lieu-van-kien/van-kien-dang/gioi-thieu-van-kien-dang/doc-2930201510411046.html
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17
https://www.igi-global.com/chapter/virtual-interactions-distance-learning/55920
18
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interactive_fiction (IF)
qu trnh xch li gn hn trong quan h gia VN vi Hoa K v Ty u19, bt lun
nhng chng i trong ni b. Ngay trc i hi XII, ni dung v x hi dn s
cng ch b a ra khi d tho Ngh quyt vo pht cht. Cho nn cng kh bt ng,
khi ngy 22/7/2017, t Qun i Nhn dn li chy mt bi inh: Li dng x
hi dn s chng ph ng, Nh nc20. Nguyn Vin trng Vin thng tin
KHXH Phm Khim ch nhn xt: Xa xa, cha ng ta rt tinh tng khi chn ra hai
tc phm: Bn v tinh thn php lut ca Mnh c T Cu (Montesquieu) v
Kh c x hi ca L Thoa (Rousseau) m mang tr khn cho con chu. 110
nm tri qua, tam quyn phn lp v x hi dn s vn l nhng ti cm k,
thm ch b ph bng nc ta. Xem vy thy hu bi ngy nay thua xa tin nhn,
ngi nh ta tht v phc21 (Con khng hn c cha). Mt lot nhng vn mu
cht khc v c ni tr ln ngoi giao nh vn i thoi v ng thun x hi, vn
ha gii gia nhng ngi Vit vi nhau v ha gii quc t, vn thot Trung v
quan h gia b tam VitTrungM nu theo di tht st, u c th thy cch
tip cn hai bc tin mt bc li trong nhn thc v hnh ng ca VN nhng
nm gn y. Ni cch khc, cch tip cn sng i gia o v thc kh ph bin.
Tng tc o phn nh s u thng ca trng phi c lp dn tc gn vi ch
ngha x hi, mc du cp not trung ng xung a phngcng u hiu r
rng nu LDT ca t nc m buc vo c xe CNXH ca Trung Quc th coi
nh t phim. Tng tc thc phn nh quan im c lp dn tc phi gn vi
hi nhp quc t, mt trng phi i mi trong t duy i ngoi, tuy t ph ny
cha chim lnh hon ton trn a, nhng bit xut pht t cc nguyn l ca ch
ngha duy thc v tn-duy thc trong hoch nh chnh sch (Realism
Neorealism). iu him hoi ti L k nim 70 nm thnh lp ngnh ngoi giao Vit
Nam (28/8/2015) l khi Ch tch nc Trng Tn Sang tng duyt ng li lnh
o ng n, sng sut ca ng, c kt thnh bn bi hc ln c gi tr su

19
http://nhipcauthegioi.hu/old/modules.php?name=News&op=viewst&sid=2271 Lc va bnh thng ha quan h ngoi
giao c my thng, ng Nguyn Mnh Cm bo m vi pha M v ch chnh tr ca chnh ph Vit Nam, dnh
cho quan h Vit-M mt v tr xng ng trong ton b chnh sch i ngoi ca mnh. K tip, nm 2003, ti cc cuc
gp lnh o Chnh quyn v Quc hi M Washington, Ngoi trng Nguyn Dy Nin khng nh: Vit Nam sn
sng cng M xy dng mt khun kh quan h n nh, lu di v li ch rng ln ca nhn dn hai nc v v li ch
ha bnh, n nh v pht trin ng Nam v Chu -Thi Bnh Dng. Bn thn Ph Th tng kim Ngoi
trng Phm Gia Khim cng chia s vi bo gii trong nc, cc cam kt ca lnh o Vit M, kin lp mi quan h
mang tnh xy dng, hu ngh, nhiu mt, lu di, v li ch ca hai nc. Hai nc khng ch hp tc v cc vn kinh
t v thng mi, m cn m rng ra cc lnh vc khc nh gio dc, khoa hc, cng ngh, quc phng v an ninh.
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20
http://www.qdnd.vn/phong-chong-hoat-dong-loi-dung-xa-hoi-dan-su-de-chong-pha-dang-nha-nuoc
21
https://bongbvt.blogspot.com/2017/07/van-minh-tan-hoc-sach.html
sc cho c hm nay v mai sau, nhng trong cc bi hc ln y, khng thy ng nhc
li tuyt chiu c lp dn tc phi gn vi ch ngha x hi (?)22.
Trc y, c mt lut bt thnh vn l, trong mt s bo co trnh ln Lnh o cp
cao, B Ngoi giao thng chp bt phn tnh hnh, cn Ban i ngoi trc tip vit
phn i sch23. l l do ti sao nhiu khi c tnh trng trng nh xui kn thi
ngc c khi ngay trong cng mt vn kin cp Ngh quyt. Hn nhin l c hai
c quan trong lng u ch ny c kt hp vi nhau khi chun b, nhng c thi
k ting ni bn Ban (TW ng) vn ln t bn B (Chnh quyn). Nhng nu nh
lun im hai phe, tnh thi i vn vt tri nh va nu trn th lm th no
m Lnh o cp cao li c th ly nhng quyt nh nh tham gia WTO v c bit
i vi gia nhp TPP l kh sm, hoc l lc u ch ch trng l hi nhp kinh t
khng thi, nhng v sau th tin ti hi nhp quc t ton din? Nu em Ngh
quyt 22 ca BCT ngy 10/4/2013 v hi nhp quc t24 so snh vi Ngh quyt 07
ca TW25 ngy 27/11/2001 v hi nhp kinh t quc t th mi thy r s chuyn
ng mang tnh tim tin trong t duy lnh o. c bit l gii thch th no v tinh
thn ch ng sn sng i M ca Th tng Phc u nm nay? L do tht n
gin: ng nh chuyn gia ti chnh David Hutt a ra, Vit Nam khng vn
pht trin26! C l nhng ngi tham gia chun b cho Th tng Phc sang M
va qua, thy trc c tm quan trng ca th trng M ni ring v ca vic
ti khng nh qu o quan h VitM ni chung. Tng th phi tnh, ch y
cng cha th bn n cu chuyn ha ng vi trt t! Phi c nhng i sch trn
thc t tn ti, thch nghi v pht trin trong hon cnh mi. Va qua, Vit Nam
bt u c nhng chuyn ng theo hng y27. Ch mt vi new cross-cutting
issues trong cc quyt sch mi nht thy nhng chuyn dch ti mt khc quanh
c ngha.
Nhng bc i c cho l to bo

22
http://vovworld.vn/vi-VN/chinh-tri/toan-van-bai-phat-bieu-cua-chu-tich-nuoc-truong-tan-sang-tai-le-ky-niem-70-nam-
thanh-lap-nganh-ngoai-363214.vov
23
http://nghiencuuquocte.org/forums/topic/hoi-ky-tran-quang-co/
24
http://www.mofahcm.gov.vn/vi/mofa/nr091019080134/nr091019083649/ns140805203450
25
https://thuvienphapluat.vn/van-ban/Thuong-mai/Nghi-quyet-07-NQ-TW-hoi-nhap-kinh-te-quoc-te/noi-dung.aspx
Page8

26
http://www.atimes.com/article/insufficient-funds-vietnam/
27
https://www.the-american-interest.com/2017/07/06/vietnam-goes-bold-south-china-sea/
20152017 ny l nhng nm ph vy ca ngoi giao Vit Nam i vo i l
hi nhp. Vng vy trng ip gm hai lp: T mua dy buc mnh v chu sc p
bn ngoi. Nhn t t mua dy buc mnh gi y khng ch n thun l do hon
lu ca cn bo thc h ngy xa. thc h ngy ny khng cn my yu t t
tng hay l tng. N c th tc ha mt cch tinh vi vo cc nhm li ch m
d lun ph phn kh mnh m. Cn nhn t bn ngoi th ai cng bit ci b mt
cng khai, l nhn t cc nc ln, c bit l tng quan TrungM trong
chnh sch ni chung. Thng 10/2016, Ngoi trng John Kerry xc nhn: Vit
Nam khng cn du vt ca ch ngha cng sn, theo ngha l mt l thuyt kinh t.
, ch c ch ngha t bn cung nhit28. C Trung Quc v Nga cng nh gi Vit
Nam theo hng ny. t ph ln nht hin nay l Vit Nam ang i tm mt m hnh
pht trin mi m tn ni cc ca Th tng Phc c li trong my ch: Khi
nghipKin toThay i Th ch29. Nu 30 nm qua l nn mng lp biu
lch s hu chin, th giai on t 2016 tr i l k nguyn a nhng thay i ny
n vi gn 100 triu con dn nc Vit. S chuyn dch ny, nu din ra trn thc t,
th l mt i phc. Bc t ph 20162017 th hin r s kin chn ng u
tin l quyt nh n Hng khng mu hm Hoa K vo Cam Ranh. Th hai lin
quan n cc cuc thao dt (thc cht l tp trn) VitM v VitNht. Th ba
l nng cp su rng bang giao NhtVit v xy dng th chn king mi gia
Vit Nam vi b t NhtncASEAN. c nhiu phn tch v cc nht
ct ny, trong c hng lot nhng nhn nh sc so ng c chia s vi bnh
bt Nguyn Quang Dy v c ba s kin30. Qua ba s kin y, VN dng nh ang tm
kim mt li tip cn c o (game changers) khi trt t tng lai cn m m. Cuc
chi sp ti vi chnh quyn Trump, chng hn (chng no ng y cn tn ti) s
c thit lp trn nhng nguyn tc rt khc trc y. Tuy nhin, y cng cha
phi l tt c! Nhng chuyn gia tng chun b cho chuyn cng du Hoa K ca Tng
B th vo thng 7/2015 c ln tit l: Tnh lch s ca chuyn thm th hin
nhng ni dung trao i, nhng im rt mi trong quan h. Nhng im ny tip tc

28
http://www.bbc.com/vietnamese/vietnam-37646535
29
Lut s Trn Quc Thun, nguyn Ph ch nhim Vn phng Quc hi tng nhn nh: trong nc th ni l c
ch th trng nh hng XHCN, nhng khi lm vic vi nc ngoi cc lnh o Vit Nam t Tng B th, Ch tch
nc cho ti Th tng v c Ch tch Quc hi u yu cu nc ngoi cng nhn Vit Nam c nn kinh t th
trng m khng c ni l theo nh hng XHCN... Ti cho l l vic phi tin ti, bi v th trng n l quy lut
t nhin, u c phi l sn phm ca ai u, by gi n lc phi tha nhn n, khng nn ni m na. Xem
Page9

http://www.rfa.org/vietnamese/in_depth/vietnam-prime-minister-wants-a-big-change-nn-12282016080502.html
30
http://viet-studies.net/kinhte/NQuangDy-CamRanh.html
to ra du n; v bc ngot lch s y c l nhiu nm sau, thm ch hng thp k sau
mi cm nhn c ht ngha ca n (Lc trch)31.
Mt ni dung mang tnh bc ngot y c th l quan h i tc chin lc ton
din VitM, trong c vn cng Cam Ranh. Cam Ranh v vn TCLTD
vi Hoa K c nng ln t xung t c hai pha sut mt thi gian di, lin
quan n tng th cc mi bang giao song phng (vi nc th ba) v a phng
(vi c th gii)32. T nm 2017 ny, vn khng cn tn gi, m l ni hm.
y, c l khng phi l cu chuyn Co v C trong ng ngn La Fontaine. Cng
khng hn l cu chuyn gi c v thi hn k tha thun thu Cng di hay ngn nh
mt s phn tch gn y. Mun nng bang giao ln tm i tc chin lc ton
din tht s, khng th c ca theo kiu nh vy, nht l Vit Nam li khng
ng cn ng lng vi Hoa K trong th mc c. Khc nhi ln nht y l
vn th din v chia s gi tr. T pha M, tinh thn Hin php khng ch gi
cho Tng thng Trump bn ny ca ci red line trong cuc b du hin ti lin
quan n ni tr, m n cn quy nh c cc tiu ch (hay iu kin) khi xy dng lin
minh chin lc vi cc quc gia bn ngoi. T pha VN, no trng t ch hng
ngn nm nay khng ch quy nh ci tng ca ngi Vit, m paradigm hai
phe vn n su vo c tim thc, t duy ln hnh ng ca gii lm chnh sch.
i cc chta, i tngi tc vn l ci nhn chia ct mun thu. Chng no
m e da a-chnh tr trong khu vc cha dng cao n ngng bo ng, c M
ln Vit thy cn thit, mi bn phi xung nc mt cht, th ni hm ca
TCLTD vn cn treo y trn danh ngha. Ni trn danh ngha l v, v thc cht,
quan h hin nay hi cc yu t chin lc ton din v c tuyn xng
nhn dp Quc khnh M 4/7 va qua ri33. Trong tng lai gn, xut hin mt kh
nng, qu cu trc an ninh mi trong khu vc s chn , tr thnh cht xc tc
mnh m c hai pha s t nguyn xch li gn nhau hn chun b n mt Trt
t mi. Chia s vi Tin s Alexander Vuving34, vn sng cn i vi Vit Nam l
lm th no (ti) cn bng mi quan h gia Bc Kinh v Washington. Vuving cho
rng trong quan h VitM ti y c 3 vn quan trng phi t c. Th nht

31
http://vietnamnet.vn/vn/ban-tron-truc-tuyen/hau-truong-chuyen-tham-my-cua-tong-bi-thu-251776.html
32
Mi tham kho mt s bi ca HT: http://www.viet-studies.net/kinhte/DinhHoangThang_QuanHeVietMy.htm ,
http://www.chungta.com/nd/tu-lieu-tra-cuu/bang-giao-viet-my-thang-nam-lai-ve.html,
https://www.vanhoanghean.com.vn/chuyen-muc-goc-nhin-van-hoa/nhung-goc-nhin-van-hoa/vuot-len-lan-song-lech-pha
Page10

33
http://www.trungtamwto.vn/tin-tuc/viet-nam-hoa-ky-doi-tac-chien-luoc-toan-dien-ngay-cang-phat-trien-ben-vung
34
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/what-vietnam-can-offer-america-20874
l mt hip nh thng mi v u t c trin vng. Th hai l phi thng nht c
vi nhau quan im v Bin ng, m ni dung gi y l khng th chp nhn hin
trng (sau khi Trung Quc bi p v qun s ha cc o). Th ba l phi xy dng
nhng nn tng cn bn cho quan h i tc chin lc ton din trong giai on
mi. t c c ba thnh tu ny, th cng thc ba khng trong chnh sch an
ninhquc phng cn c tnh ton li. Ch ny, tuy nhy cm tht y, nhng
gn y cng c cp ti mt s din n trong v ngoi nc35.
i vi quan h VitNht, nhng mc son lch s du cch y hng trm nm
tui hay c ngun gc t nhng thp nin gn y, u gn b su xa ti cc chuyn
ng gia tc trong mi bang giao ny36. ng Kinh ngha thc, nh cao ca cuc
cch mng x hi to ln ca Vit Nam vo u th k XX, trn thc t c hun
c bi tinh thn ngi bt mnh hn gm gio v ly cm hng mt phn t trit
l gio dc ca tin sinh Fukuzawa, t triu i Khnh ng (Keio). Bang giao Nht
Vit khng ch c bt u t nhng mi e da trn Bin ng v Hoa ng. Tnh
bng hu gia hai quc gia vn c m trng t xa xa ca lch s. Bc sang k
nguyn hin i ha, quan h lin tc c nng cp. T i tc ton din ln i
tc chin lc, t i tc chin lc ln i tc chin lc su rng Mi thay
i kch tnh trong cc din khu vc u ging ln hi chung cnh bo v u dn
n nhng khc quanh mi y nng ng trong c bang giao song phng ln a
phng. C hai nc u ang cn n b gien (genome) ca nhau. B gien Nht
l bit cch i ph vi sc p ca bn ngoi bng ch ng ci cch v m ca t rt
sm. Chnh cuc thot , nhp u thu no lm cho nc Nht tr nn modern
nht trong lng chu. B gien Vit c th cn nhiu kin khc nhau, nhng
nu thiu n, chng ta mt nc bao phen v ngi Vit gi ny chc chn ang
giao tip vi nhau bng mt th ngn ng khc! Cha c ai so snh hai b gien y
mt cch thn tnh nh chnh Ton quyn Paul Doumer: Phi ti tn Nht Bn mi
c mt tc ngi c phm cht ca ngi Vit v gia hai dn tc ny chc chn phi
c mi quan h huyt thng t xa xa VN ang hc tp tnh kin nh v nht
qun i vi li ch quc gia v thc su sc v cc mi quan h quyn lc chng
cht xung quanh t nc mnh ca ngi Nht. Tuy nhin, trong bang giao Nht
Vit hin vn tn ti hai ci by nguy him. Th nht, cng ng tu nghip sinh v
lao ng VN Nht hng ngy ang lm xi mn s kin nhn ca ngi dn x Ph
Tang. Th hai, trong chnh sch ODA ca chnh ph Abe hin nay cng ang ni cm
Page11

35
http://www.bbc.com/vietnamese/forum/2016/01/160115_vn_het_thoi_chinh_sach_ba_khong
36
Bi vit ca HT: https://www.vanhoanghean.com.vn/van-hoa-va-doi-song/viet-nhat-cam-hung-lich-su-va-thuc-tai
ln mt s vn v mt tri ca tm hun chng i tc chin lc su rng.
D sao mc lng, ch ng mc quyt lit hn trc y trong vic hp tc su
rng, ton din v ngy cng tng cng vi M v Nht l im sng, ri vo phn
tng tc thc trong nhn thc v ng ph ca VN i vi Trt t mi ang n.
Nhng thch thc pha trc
iu ng tic l, bt chp nhng bc i m pha quc t cng ghi nhn l kh to
bo (Vietnam goes bold), nhng cc chuyn ha v cht, lin quan n phm
(qualitative), cha hon ton lng, cha hi (quantitative), to ra nhng
pivot ngon mc trong nhn thc cng chnh sch trn thc tin. V vy, thch thc
u tin, to ln nht, bao trm nht hin nay v ti y, vn l nhng cn sng ngm
trong bang giao VitTrung37. Bt c cuc tn cng no ca Trung Quc vo Vit
Nam s l hi chung bo ng trn ngp khu vc. Cc quc gia trong vng s chia
thanh nhng nc sn sng chi u theo Trung Quc v nhng nc tm kim s ng
h ca cc cng quc bn ngoi duy tr s qun bnh quyn lc38. Ngy 24/7,
vng, ng vo lc a tin ta rt qun khi T Chnh, GS. Carl Thayer cnh bo
trong bi vit trn Tp ch The Diplomat: Alarming Escalation in the South China
Sea: China Threatens Force if Vietnam Continues Oil Exploration in Spratlys; Tm
dch: Leo thang ang bao ng trn Bin ng: Trung Quc da dng vu lc nu
Vit Nam tip tc thm d du kh Trng Sa. V Gio s ny tuy b gt khi Hi
tho do BNG Vit Nam ng ch tr39, vi ni dung: lm th no ngn cn, nu
khng o ngc c xu th Trung Quc tip tc qun s ha Bin ng, nhng
nh mt ci nghip, ng vn c chui m ui v Bin ng. Thayer t ra th
lng nan khng ch cho mt mnh VN, ng t ra cho c Trt t mi: Bt k cuc
tn cng no ca Trung Quc vo Vit Nam cng ging nh vic Trung Quc lt
gng tay ra thach u Hoa K, Nht Bn v cc cng quc bin khc. Cac nc
nay s phi i mt vi mt s cu hi kh khn: Liu h c thc s bo v nn cng
nghip du m ca Vit Nam hay sn sng anh nhau vi Trung Quc, v mt vai bai
nh Bin ng?40. Liu Hi tho H 2017 ny ca chng ta c ng gp c
cu tr li??? Chc l kh. Bi v cng ngy, t bn ny b Bin ng (ng sang c

37
https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/china-vietnam-military-talks-cut-short-over-disputed-waters
38
http://thediplomat.com/2017/07/alarming-escalation-in-the-south-china-sea-china-threatens-force-if-vietnam-
continues-oil-exploration-in-spratlys/
Page12

39
https://www.csis.org/events/sixth-annual-csis-south-china-sea-conference
40
http://thediplomat.com/2017/07/alarming-escalation-in-the-south-china-sea-china-threatens-force-if-vietnam-
continues-oil-exploration-in-spratlys/
chu), t Qun i Nhn dn li chy tt ln vi nhan Kin nh ng li i
ngoi quc phng c lp, t ch41. Bi vit khng nh khng bao gi c chuyn
Cam Ranh s l cn c qun s ca Hoa K, v tnh c lp, t ch ca qun i Vit
Nam. Mt bnh bt t phng Ty t cu hi: Trc cnh ng dn Vit b Trung
Quc bn cht, gin khoan Trung Quc c tu qun s h tng xm phm vng
lnh hi Vit Nam, hi qun Trung Quc ngn cn v ph hoi hip nh thng mi
Vit Nam k vi Ty Ban Nha... ti sao VN khng a ra bt c mt tuyn b mnh
m no trc th gii, m li sephi (t sng) vi c lp, t ch vo lc ny? Sau
my ngy lin, ngi pht ngn B Ngoi giao mi ln ting (29/7). Nu mi chuyn
ng nh tin a, th y khng cn l thch thc na, m l mt hin thc ng
lo ngi. Nu thng tin qun ta rt c kim chng, y l kt qu tt yu ca s
m chin lc42 (strategic ambiguity) trong quan h tay ba VitTrungM th
tng lai hin ti.
Thch thc th hai, l thi ca VN i vi i d n Nht i nht l
(OBOR). i d n ny, d nhin, gn lin vi e da trn Bin ng v hn th na,
y l mt c nh quyt nh gt M ra khi chu , xa b Pax Americana,
thay th bng Pax Sinica. Trong mt bi vit ca ngi Tp hch tm, y vin Quc
v h Dng cho rng OBOR l mt xc tin i ngoi mang tm cao mi ca c
nhn Ch tch nc, t xut thnh hnh ng, t khi nim thnh thc tin43. y
l cu chuyn i s khng ch i vi VN, khng ch trong tng quan gia VN vi
trt t ang hnh thnh, m cn l mt phn ct li ca Trt t th gii mi. Lin
quan n th gii, c th s c bn mt khun kh khc44. Vn lin quan n
Vit Nam trong cu chuyn ny l t chi th khng c, m nhn th cng gay go.
VN lm th no khng mang ting chng li thin triu m vn gi c cc
ng ranh gii trn bin cng nh trn t lin. To Be or not to Be? y mi tht
l bi ton hc ba. D lun liu c an tm, khi Thng co chung (TCC) VitTrung

41
http://www.qdnd.vn/chong-dien-bien-hoa-binh/kien-dinh-duong-loi-doi-ngoai-quoc-phong-doc-lap-tu-chu-513211
42
Nu khng nhm th khi nim ny, ln u tin do GS. Cao Huy Thun chuyn ng trong bi Quan h M
TrungNhtASEAN sau khng hong Chu 1997: http://www.tapchithoidai.org/TD8_CHThuan.pdf
43
Dng Khit Tr: Bn v t tng ngoi giao ca Tp Cn Bnh, TLTKB, TTXVN, s 196, ngy 29/7/2017
44
Trong cun sch ca mnh, TS. Kissinger lp lun rng, mt trt t ang n cn hi hai yu t: (1) mt h thng
quy tc ng x xc nh gii hn hnh ng ca mi quc gia hay ca mt nn vn ha, v (2) mt s cn bng th lc
Page13

c kh nng trng pht quc gia hay vn ha no vi phm cc nguyn tc ng x ng vi nhau ngn khng cho
mt th lc no dng sc mnh p cc th lc khc. http://www.nguoi-viet.com/dien-dan/Trat-tu-the-gioi-duoi-mat-
Henry-Kissinger-4051/
gm 15 mc nhn chuyn thm Trung Quc ca Ch tch Trn i Quang45 t 11
15/5/2017 ghi nhn vic Ch tch nc d Din n Vnh ai v Con ng (BRF) ch
xp cui cng trong danh mc th 6/15 ca cc vn kin ngoi giao (mc th 6 ny c ba
ni dung)? Ni dung th ba (cui cng) ch r, Vit Nam v Trung Quc s bn bc, k
kt Bn ghi nh v hp tc kt ni gia khun kh Hai hnh lang, mt vnh ai vi
sng kin Vnh ai v Con ng ph hp vi li ch, kh nng, iu kin ca mi
nc. VN khng th chng li BRF nh n ang tin hnh, nhng qua TCC, thy r
mc low profie (cam kt thp). Liu vi i d n OBOR ca Trung Quc v
America First ca M, ri y, Hoa K c nh mt chu vo tay Trung Quc nh
mt cnh bo trn Tp ch Foreign Policy mi y?46. Cu B trng Quc phng
William Cohen thi Clinton, thm ch cn nhn xt: iu m cc ng minh ca M
mong mun l tnh d bo, tnh nht qun v tnh lin tc trong chnh sch ca Hoa
K vi khu vc chu Thi Bnh Dng. i vi ti, vn ng lo ngi nht l
khng bit k hoch chin lc ca M l g. Khi Ch tch Tp Cn Bnh cng b k
hoch Vnh ai v Con ng (BRI) y tham vng, th y l biu hin r nht v
vai tr vt tri ca Trung Quc vo thi im m cam kt ca Hoa K ti y t chc
chn hn bao gi ht. Phn ng ca Washington ra sao? thm tin vo quc
phng! Sng kin n nh Chu Thi Bnh Dng (AsiaPacific Stability
Initiative) tr gi 7,5 t USD (1,5 t USD mi nm cho n nm 2022) c th lm cho
v th khu vc ca Hoa K tr nn linh hot hn v nng ng hn. Tuy nhin, cuc
chin trc mt v nh hng chu li ph thuc vo kinh t. kha cnh ny,
Hoa K mt uy tn k t khi rt khi TPP, Hip nh COP21, i thng lng li
Hip nh Thng mi T do MHn. Tnh cch TrumpTp tuy kh ra G2,
nhng khi ch ngha thc dng ca mi bn c th to ra khun kh Chimerica
trong tng phi v lm n (nh Triu Tin hay Bin ng), th y thc s l mt
Nightmare on Street cho Vit Nam v ng Nam . Tuy Vit Nam ha s bn bc
c th kt ni BRI vi cc d n trong nc, nhng v lu di y vn l mt gch
ni nguy him khng km mt c Thnh l my.
Thch thc th ba l th lng nan c v ni tr ln ngoi giao khng nh vai tr
khng th thiu vng ca VN trong cc dn xp khu vc, nhng li khng b cun vo
cuc chi vng quyn gia cc i cng. Bi ton hin nay l phi x l mi quan
h phc tp gia cc nhc nhi ni tr v vn achin lc. Cch y hng chc
nm, khi cn ng u ngnh lp php, Ch tch Quc hi Nguyn Ph Trng tng
Page14

45
Bi vit ca HT: https://www.vanhoanghean.com.vn/chuyen-muc-goc-nhin-van-hoa/nhin-ra-the-gioi/sang-kien-
vanh-dai-va-con-duong-bri-toan-cau-hoa-made-in-china
46
http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/12/the-united-states-is-losing-asia-to-china/
kt qu trnh i mi nhn thc trn vn chta, i tngi tc theo tinh
thn nhng ai ch trng tn trng c lp ch quyn, thit lp, quan h hu ngh v
hp tc bnh ng cng c li vi Vit Nam u l i tc ca chng ta, bt c th lc
no c m mu v hnh ng chng ph mc tiu ca nc ta trong s nghip xy
dng v bo v T quc u l i tng u tranh47. T by n nay, mi quan h
gia ngoi giao v ni tr vn c nhn nhn qua lng knh i tc v i tng,
nhng khng cn th lng cc nh trc y, m i vo quan h an xen, chng
ln nhiu khi khng th tch bch. V d, vnh gia phng thc cn bngi
trng trong quan h vi M, Ty u, Lin Hp Quc v tnh trng nhn quyn trong
nc va qua, c nguy c s y cc cam kt thng mi v h tr ODA t cc nc
v cc t chc quc t, k c Nht ln EU dt dn ra ngoi tm vi. i vi nhng
cng thng xung quanh bang giao VitTrung gn y, Stratfor t 22/7 a ra d
bo48: Chnh sch ca H Ni gn y ph hp vi chin lc hp tc lu di vi cc
cng quc bn ngoi i trng li Bc Kinh v trnh n trc tip nhng thch
thc ca ngi lng ging phng Bc. Nhng khi Washington quay tr li ng
Nam v Nht Bn mt mc khc l n v Australia cng ho hc
theo ui mt s hin din ln hn trong vng, th ci xung lc khu vc ca Vit Nam
li t t nc ny vo nhng ng gch cho ca Bc Kinh. Nhng bc i ca
Bc Kinh va qua Bin ng, c bit l sau hai v gin khoan (nm 2014 v nm
2017), s thc y t duy an ninh theo hng tch cc ang din ra hay s quay li
mt dng khu u mi? Vn ny cho n nay vn l mt cu hi kh tr li!
Mt khc, trnh s can d khng cn thit vo cuc chi vng quyn gia cc
nc ln, VN cn bm tr, ngoi cc quan h bn vng vi h, phi gi ly tnh bng
hu v cc si dy lin kt vi ASEAN, thc y hn na ci ch mnh m trong
Trm Vit trn vng nh mnh49, ch khng cho t chc khu vc ny tan n x
47
Nguyn Ph Trng: S pht trin nhn thc ca ng ta t Cng lnh nm 1991 n nay. TCCS, s 811, thng
5/2010. Xem: http://www.vietnamplus.vn/nhan-thuc-cua-dang-tu-cuong-linh-1991-den-nay/45335.vnp
48
Hanoi's outreach fits into a long-standing strategy of partnering with external powers to counterbalance Beijing,
though Vietnam has carefully avoided directly challenging its northern neighbor. But as Washington recasts its attention
toward Southeast Asia, and as Japan and to a lesser extent India and Australia eagerly pursues a greater security
presence in the area, Vietnam's regional momentum has again put it in Beijing's crosshairs.
https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/china-vietnam-military-talks-cut-short-over-disputed-waters
49
Ti mun c nhc n Phm Vit Chu (tn tht l Phm c Li, tc gi n phm TVTVM) c nh bo Phng
Nguyn (cng qua i) v nh mt v sao khim tn, n hin ng sau chm tinh vn sc s, ch chng ta chong
ngp khi nhn ra s huy hong ca n c ly gn. y l mt con ngi khng ch tinh thn trch nhim, c hy sinh v
Page15

lng dng cm khin chng ta knh trng, m thm vo l s tic nui v b chng ta dnh cho phn ti nng v tr
tu siu vit nay mt i vnh vin. Chng ta c c s tin chc, nu cn sng, ng nht nh s c thm nhng ng
gp quan trng cho t nc, cho dn tc. https://www.voatiengviet.com/a/tram-viet-tren-vung-dinh-menh-bon-muoi-
nam-sau/2941123.html
ngh. VN phi bit cch vt qua s chia r trong ASEAN v Bin ng nhn thy
v hng ti mt tng lai xa hn. n nm 2025, khong hai phn ba dn s th gii
s sinh sng Chu . Ngc li, M chim khong 5 phn trm dn s th gii, cn
EU chim khong 7 phn trm. Nh nghin cu Hans Rosling thuc Vin
Karolinska50 ca Thy in din t tng quan ny kh l th khi ng m t m s
PIN ca th gii hin nay l 1114 ngha l trong 7 t ngi trn tri t, khong
1 t sng Chu u, 1 t sng Chu M, 1 t Chu Phi v 4 t Chu . Nhng
ti nm 2050, dn s th gii c th l 9 t, v m s ny s thay i thnh 1125,
vi Chu Phi v Chu mi ni tng thm 1 t ngi. S vn ln ca chu c th
lm o ln trt t ton cu v chm dt s thng lnh ca phng Ty. Rachman 51
cho rng s tri dy y bt n ca Trung Quc vn thch thc v th ti thng ca
Hoa K, nhng khi cc cng quc khc nh Nht Bn hay n cng tri dy, th
khng d g Trung Quc c th o ln c trt t hin hnh. VN cn c thi dm
nhn thy c trong nhng ci nguy trn Bin ng v ton chu ni chung.
Thch thc th t, ng nh b Phm Chi Lan nu: lm th no VN chu
pht trin! Nghch l pht trin c th ni l mt nghch l ln nht trong lch s cn
i ca t nc. Theo b Phm Chi Lan, cc chuyn gia Ngn hng th gii cho rng
VN l nc khng chu pht trin. Mt s chuyn gia World Bank phn tch: Trn
th gii chia ra gm nc pht trin, nc ang pht trin, nc chm pht trin
nhng Vit Nam c l l m hnh c bit nht. l nc khng chu pht trin!
u t nhiu n th, ODA nhiu n th (20 nm qua lng ODA vo Vit Nam
ln ti gn 90 t USD) nhng n by gi vn khng pht trin c th ch c th
l khng chu pht trin52. Nguyn nhn ca mi nguyn nhn ai cng bit, l
vn th ch. Th ch hin nay khng nn ni l li thi, khng cn ph hp, m l
sai lm. Cha cn phn tch, l lun nhiu, ch cn quan st cng thy r. Khng phi
ngu nhin m xt ring trong mt quc gia b chia ct, trc , nn kinh t v mi
lnh vc x hi khc l nh nhau, th nhng na bn ny th khn kh, ch, cn na
bn kia pht trin vi tc ngon mc. iu ny c th thy r khi so snh gia
CHDC c vi CHLB c trc y v Bc Triu Tin vi Hn Quc, Trung Hoa
lc a vi i Loan hin nay. chng t cho th gii bit VN t khng chu pht
trin tr thnh chu pht trin, cn phi ci t li th ch hin nay. l cch

50
Gideon Rachman: War and peace in Asia Xem: https://www.ft.com/content/80122bbc-5985-11e6-8d05-4
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51
"Easternization: Asia's Rise and America's Decline" (Tm dch: Phng ng ha: S tri dy ca chu v s
thoi tro ca M) Xem: https://www.voatiengviet.com/a/trung-quoc-troi-day-truoc-su-thoai-trao-cua-my/3799174.html
52
http://infonet.vn/viet-nam-la-mo-hinh-ky-la-nhat-the-gioi-nuoc-khong-chiu-phat-trien-post171047.info
VN thot khi vng trng ca th gii, t nc c c may ha ng vi trt t
tng lai. Cn phi xy dng mt nn dn ch a nguyn. Tt nhin, khng phi mi
s ti t s nhanh chng chm dt khi chuyn sang nn dn ch, nhng n s c
kim sot dn dn cng vi qu trnh hon thin ca th ch mi. Khi y s c nhng
c ch kim sot ln nhau, c tam quyn phn lp, c nh nc php quyn. Khi
ngi dn c lm ch thc s, thy chnh quyn, ti sn chung ca x hi cng l
ca mnh th h mi quan tm, mi ng gp c tm huyt, ti nng thc s vo
vic qun l t nc. Khi y VN mi kh d ni n thot khi m hnh k l nht
th gii, c th ni vi WB rng chng ti s chu pht trin.
Thch thc th nm, mt thch thc cng c tnh bao trm, mang tnh tng hp, l
vn sc mnh mm (soft power) ca VN. Hon ton chia s v ngh a t mi
khng chu pht trin vo T in Ngn ng do Tin s Trn Hu Dng sng lp.
Tuy nhin, trong nc ang ngy cng nhn thc ra rng, th ch ch l mt ph
sn trong t duy lnh o. Mt sc khng km, l vn vn ha, lin quan n
cc t bo gc ca ngi Vit, nh mt tr ngi chnh trong qu trnh tng tc gia
VN vi trt t ang hnh thnh. Th ch ng l c gp phn lm cho cc cn tnh
ca ngi mnh tip tc xung cp nghim trng. Tn khi xa cm thn: Dn
hai nhm triu ai ngi ln. Ngy nay, ch mt tay tin gi tp ma sa bi c
gio trung hc Trn Th Lam53, m ngn ngt ni bun. Mt blogger tri lng54:
t nc yn hn khng c ting bom, ting n, m vng hn ting ci v t ca
c x hi; c mt cng ng ngi nh mt phng hng, lm li i, trong v vng,
khng ch n. Mt dn tc c n, c t mnh huyn hoc ri chuc ly bao
nhiu nc mt v hn ti... au hn na, t nc khng thiu anh hng, khng
thiu ngi thng minh, cng cng, dn sn sng p bng sng d, chn ng mi
o qun xm lc, ch ngt ni thiu mt minh ch c uy, c tn, c tm.... Nhiu
53
t nc mnh ng qu phi khng anh / Bn ngn tui m dn khng chu ln / Bn ngn tui m vn cn b mm
/ Trc nhng bt cng vn khng bit ku i... t nc mnh l qu phi khng anh / Nhng chic bnh chng v
cng k v / Nhng d n v tng i nghn t / Sinh mng con ngi ch nh ci mng tay... / t nc mnh bun qu
phi khng anh / Bin bc, rng xanh, cnh ng la bic / Rng ht v bin th ang cht / Nhng con thuyn nm
nh sng khi xa... / t nc mnh thng qu phi khng anh / Mi a tr sinh ra gnh n nn ng cha li / Di
sn cho mai sau c g chu con ta trang tri / ng trc nm chu m khng phi ci u... / t nc mnh ri s v
u anh / Anh khng bit em lm sao bit c / Cu hi gi tri xanh, gi ngi sau, ngi trc / Ai tr li dm t
nc s v u... (TRN TH LAM, Trng PTTH chuyn H Tnh). Bi th ny lm ti nh n cu ca dao: Ai lm
gi tp ma sa / Cho cy anh , cho hoa anh tn. Trong Kiu, Nguyn Du s dng ti hai ln: Cu th 344: Tay tin
gi tp ma sa / Khong trn dng bt tho v bn cu. Cu th 2316: By chy gi tp ma sa / My trng cng
khuyt, my hoa cng tn. Th c hnh nh c cu: Phong v thi thi t = T th nhanh nh gi ma thc y ( mun
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ni n ci ti hoa ca ngi sng tc ra on th). Ti tm chng nh th ny v phc ci ti ca c Trn Thi Lam

v thy bi th rt hp cnh hp tnh i vi ch Hi tho. Nu c v no phn i ti mong thng cm!
54
http://trankytrung.com/read.php?881
anh ch em thn hu trong nc cng cnh bo vi chnh quyn, phi gp rt
chuyn i/tip bin vn ha, u t thc s cho gio dc o to v khoa hc cng
ngh, pht huy ti a li th a-chnh tr, bao gm Bin ng v Cng Cam Ranh.
C ch trng ng n, cha c hin ti s xut hin hin ti, cha chn chnh s
xut hin tr thc chn chnh55. mi l nhng gii php cn c cng vi cu
chuyn sm sng to tu ln cho tng lai. a-chnh tr ch c th tr thnh ti nguyn
gi tr khi ta mnh bn trong. Khng nn tt c cho th ch, v mt khi VN
mun pht trin th t n s thc y tin trnh lng icht i, t y, th
ch th no cng s chuyn ha (khng ai c th cm k n chuyn ha phc v
li ch quc gia), ch nu va ngho va hn, li khng chu pht trin th ci th
ch clc lng cng bm r lu tn ti.
P&DOWN56 Gii php c gi
C th m rng thm danh mc cc thch thc ca VN trong qu trnh chun b tng
tc vi trt t ang n, nhng tm dng nm thch thc c mi lin i v ty
thuc ln nhau ni trn. Khng iu chnh chnh sch i vi Trung Quc s dn n
b tc trong ch trng i vi OBOR. Bang giao vi Trung Quc, t ngn xa l
mt mi quan h tng tr c v i ni ln i ngoi VN. Nu khng thot khi
ci gng t tng (o) ca Tu, VN c mun cng khng pht trin c. Chng ta
cn mt thi khc. Cng vi m hnh v th ch mi, phi lm mt cuc cch
mng vn ha theo ng ngha ca t ny. Phi c thi n nhn ci c (nh c
hi) trong tt c mi nguy hin hin trn mi lnh vc ca i sng. Mt thi nh

55
http://www.vanhoanghean.com.vn/chuyen-muc-goc-nhin-van-hoa/nhung-goc-nhin-van-hoa/nghi-ngoi-ve-hien-tai

56
Nh tc gi (HT) c ln vit: Thi ma u, gi M ngy nay, mi khi nh v th ng chng chnh ca cch
mng Vit Nam thu cn trng nc, khng th khng nhc li mt tinh thn y minh trit, khi Ngh quyt ca CS
ng Dng lc by gi (2/1951) xc tn: ngoi giao ca ta phi c tnh dn tc v dn ch. Ngy nay, mun tn
vinh cc gi tr dn tc khng th thiu mi trng dn ch. Mun mnh bn trong khng th thiu i tc chin lc
vi bn ngoi. Tng quan gia hai hng s P, tc xy dng h thng i tc chin lc (Strategic Partnership) vi D,
tc l tin trnh thc y dn ch ha trong nc (Democratisation) cha bao gi tng sinh tng khc nh thi im
hin nay. Ngoi giao v ni tr gi y l hai mt ca mt ng tin, l cc thnh t tch hp trong mt chin lc pht
trin tng th, theo m thc P&DOWN. Bi hc quc gia khi nghip ca Israel (start-up nation) l g nu khng phi l
h sinh thi khi nghip ch c th m to v n r trong mt mi trng dn ch v t do, theo Eryadi K. Masli, ging
vin ti i hc Swinburne (o). Trc y, th gii khng my ch n th trng khi nghip ti Vit Nam, nhng
hin tng Flappy Bird ang dn thay i quan im ny. Con ngi Vit Nam thng minh, nu c th ch v mi
trng php l ph hp th dng vn ca cc qu u t c th gip Vit Nam sm tr thnh im n cho cc cng ty
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khi nghip. Cc nh startup c m to, cc khu cng ngh cao vi chc tui, quyt khng th l nhng cng
ng sinh ra b mm. Tt c ch c th ln ln trn nn ca mi trng t do v sng to trong lng mt quc gia
dn tc trng thnh. c c bi ti: http://www.chungta.com/nd/tu-lieu-tra-cuu/triet-ly-quoc-gia-dan-toc.html
Minh Tr v quc dn Nht Bn bng tnh trc lot i bc t tu M, hay nh
Tng Kinh Quc, L ng Huy v quc dn i Loan trc dn tn la i lc
ngay b bn kia eo bin, nht quyt tn dng th cnh tranh gia cc siu cng
thu nhn s h tr t cc bn nhm ci cch su rng quc gia, ng v pha vn
minh, pha hin i nht ca nhn loi. Khe ca tuy hp tht y nhng l duy nht57.
c th thot khi th lng nan c v ni tr ln ngoi giao ca t nc, phn
th ba ca bi vit ny s ti xut Paradigm P&DOWN nh mt gii php c
gi. Trong , tp trung vo hai gii php hng u l P nh Strategic Partnership,
tc l update li h thng TCL v D nh Democratization, tc l thc y tin
trnh dn ch ha bn trong. Hai gii php cn c ny cn c t trn ci b
king ba chn to nn bi kt ni OWN. Trong , O l qu trnh
Organizing, t chc/thc y cc cuc chin php ltruyn thng; W nh
Wisdom, tc l l vn dng ton b kinh nghim minh trit, t truyn thng n hin
i trong cc kho bu ca cha ng cng nh t nhng bi hc gn y. Sau cng
nhng rt ct yu, N nh Networking l c may t k nguyn ton cu ha v
thng mi t do (TPP v RCEPT) m VN phi nm bt ginh ly cc li th so
snh. Vit Nam b l c hi trong nhng nm qua, khi M v phng Ty phng
xoay trc v chu . Nay nu ta vn tip tc nhng gii php ch cu gi, m
khng c bt k hng ci cch su rng v cn bn no, th tnh th v trn v
chin lc l mt nguy c khng th loi tr.
Di y s khng i vo chi tit v c nm gii php trong P&DOWN, v c
cp trong cc bi vit trc y58. Dp ny, ngi vit ch mun nhn mnh tm quan
trng v mi tng quan ca b i P&D, c chc nng tng ng vi hng s
R&D (Nghin cu & Pht trin) ch s sng cn i vi cc doanh nghip v tp
on kinh t. Mun ch ng chung sng ha bnh vi Trung Quc, Vit Nam cn
phi tng cng hp tc cht ch vi cc nc ln (nh M, Nht, n) trong khun
kh i tc chin lc ton din (P) cht lng cao, v mt nn an ninh tp th, v
khng qu l thuc vo bt k nc ln no. Nhn dp Quc khnh M 2017, ti tp H
Ch Minh, c b Tng Lnh s Hoa K ln Ph Ch tch y ban Nhn dn Thnh ph
(trc s hin din ca i s Ted Osius), ln u tin trong lch s, cng nhau
chc mng mi quan h i tc chin lc ton din gia hai nc Vit Nam

57
https://boxitvn.blogspot.com/2017/07/khe-cua-tuy-hep-nhung-la-duy-nhat.html
58
Xem bi ca HT: http://www.vanhoanghean.com.vn/chuyen-muc-goc-nhin-van-hoa/nhung-goc-nhin-van-hoa/dinh-
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che-hoa-cac-no-luc-truoc-sreb-doi-pho-voi-con-duong-to-lua-bang-pe-ro-dam-1-p-down v
http://vinhnv43.blogspot.com/2015/10/mot-cach-tiep-can-moi-ve-bien-dong-trong.html v
http://www.vanhoanghean.com.vn/nhung-goc-nhin-van-hoa/p-down-giai-phap-hau-gian-khoan
Hoa K59. Tuy nhin, quan h TCLTD ny pht huy hiu qu, VN cn i mi
trit , trc ht phi i mi nhng nguyn l c bn ca chnh sch i ngoi,
trong bi cnh mi trng ton vng v ton cu ang chuyn ha. ha gii li
nguyn a l, VN cn nhanh chng tr thnh quc gia c h thng ng minhi
tc ti u, cn sm hon thin h thng TCL mnh. Th no l mnh v ti u? Phi
tin hnh r sot li, ti nh tnh v nh lng ci h thng TCL ang c. u l
nhng tiu ch xc nh mc cn thit kin lp cc loi hnh quan h: i tc
ton din, chin lc, hay chin lc ton din vi mt nc? Mc d c ti
15 TCL v 10 TCLTD, nhng cho ti nay dng nh vn cha c mt nh ngha
r rng v ni hm ca khi nim ny. Thm ch c kin cho l VN b lm pht
TCL. Trong khi TCL v hai bin th ca n l i tc ton din v i tc chin
lc ton din l nhng khi nim c dng nh du nhng mi quan h m
VN cho l quan trng. Nhng vn l quan trng ti mc no, quan trng i vi ci
g ca VN? Theo Tin s L Hng Hip60, mt quc gia nn c coi l TCL khi n
c ngha c bit i vi an ninh, thnh vng v v th quc t ca Vit Nam.
Trong , an ninh v thnh vng phi l hai kha cnh ch yu, cn kha cnh cui
cng mang ngha gi . V an ninh, quan h TCL s gip cng c nn tng ngoi
giao v quc phng, h tr tch cc trong vic gi gn an ninh, bo ton ch quyn
quc gia v ton vn lnh th. Ngc li, nu mi quan h b xu i, hoc b gin
on, c th gy phng hi nghim trng cho an ninh, ngoi giao ln quc phng ca
t nc, gy kh khn cho vic bo ton ch quyn quc gia v ton vn lnh th.
V thnh vng, mi quan h mi mt vi i tc y phi gp phn quan trng pht
trin kinh t-x hi ca VN. iu th hin trn cc kha cnh thng mi, u t,
chuyn giao cng ngh, vin tr, v nht l v vn ha... V d, thng mi song
phng phi t kim ngch ti thiu 10 t USD, u t phi t 5 t USD tr ln th mi
t vn vn ng bn. Nu cc tiu ch ny cha t c th phi xt n quy m
v mc pht trin tng lai ca quc gia . Nn kinh t ca h cng ln v cng
pht trin th kh nng sm t c cc tiu ch cng cao. V nng cao v th,
quc gia i tc nn phi l nhng nc ln, hoc cng quc hng trung tiu biu.
phi l nhng quc gia c v th v nh hng quan trng i vi i sng chnh
tr khu vc/th gii.
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59
http://www.trungtamwto.vn/tin-tuc/viet-nam-hoa-ky-doi-tac-chien-luoc-toan-dien-ngay-cang-phat-trien-ben-vung
60
http://nghiencuuquocte.org/2015/03/05/viet-nam-hoa-giai-loi-nguyen-dia-ly/
Lin quan n ch s dn ch ha (D), theo cc thng k t 2013 ca GS. H S
Qu61, Vit Nam xp th 144/167 (Bc Triu Tin nm cui bng). Gi y, cc nhu
cu v dn cha nguyna ng li ni ln nh mt tro lu kh cng ch.
Ngy 17/5/2017, Tp ch Tia Sng (thuc B Khoa Hc Cng ngh), mt t bo nh
nc c xp vo s t i trong cc c quan bo ch c quan im phn bin,
chnh thc ng bi vit Nht th ha: Phn tch la chn m hnh62 ca tc gi
Nguyn S Dng, nguyn Ph Ch nhim Vn phng Quc hi, cp n mt vn
c xem l rt nhy cm i vi th ch hin nay Vit Nam: chn m hnh
i ngh hay m hnh tng thng lng tnh? C th ni y l ln u tin ta xut
hin mt bi vit trn bo nh nc mang tnh hm r rng n th. Ngay c mt
cu Th trng b Cng an l ng V Vit Thanh cng cng khai bc l quan
im phi c i lp xy dng trong ng. Trn Tp ch Tuyn gio thng 6/2017,
ng V Ngc Hong, mt ngi tng c xem l k truyn gio thun thnh i
vi quan im ca TBT, gin tip phn bc ng Trng khi ng Hong hm rng
t din bin, t chuyn ha khng ch c tiu cc m cn c mt tt63 c bit,
s lng tr thc, cu quan chc v c nhng quan chc ang ti nhim ng theo
hng a nguyn v i lp xy dng, m v thc cht l chp nhn a ng,
ngy cng ng. Ngy 13/6/2017, t Qun i Nhn Dn ng bi Ngn chn v y
li biu hin i thc hin a nguyn, a ng64. Mc ch bi ny l mun stop
ngay cc biu hin t din bin, t chuyn ha. Tuy nhin, on chapeau Ngh
quyt Trung ng 4, kha XII v tng cng xy dng, chnh n ng ch ra
nhng biu hin ca t din bin, t chuyn ha trong ni b, trong c biu
hin i thc hin a nguyn, a ng, bc l mt s tht: a nguyn, a ng
khng ch bn r m n kh su trong ni b! Trn nn d lun v kh nng c th
hnh thnh th ch ng trong ng Vit Nam, t nm 2016 xut hin nhng
cuc trao i trong gii quan chc cao cp hu tr v gii tr thc phn bin trung
thnh v kh nng i tn ng tr v ng Lao ng nh trong qu kh xa. Hoc c
th tch ng thnh hai, va ng Cng Sn va ng Lao ng trong mt tng
lai gn. T trc Tt nguyn n 2017, li rm ran v kh nng c th ngh hnh
thnh ng trong ng, nhng vi mt ci tn hon ton mi. Nh vy c th thy,
mi tng quan gia P&D, tc l mi quan h gia kin to h thng i tc bn

61
http://www.vanhoanghean.com.vn/chuyen-muc-goc-nhin-van-hoa/nhung-goc-nhin-van-hoa/chi-so-dan-chu
62
http://tiasang.com.vn/-dien-dan/Nhat-the-hoa-Phan-tich-de-lua-chon-mo-hinh-10639
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63
https://kimdunghn.wordpress.com/2017/07/03/ve-tu-dien-bien-tu-chuyen-hoa/
64
http://www.bqllang.gov.vn/tin-tuc/tin-tong-hop/ngan-chan-va-day-lui-bieu-hien-doi-thuc-hien-da-nguyen-da-dang.html
ngoi vi tin trnh dn ch ha bn trong t nc l mi quan h tng sinh
tng h, P thc y D v ngc li, D khi ha cng thi i, th n lt
n, s y cht lng ca P n mt tng nc cao hn, VN s khng bao gi b c
c nh nhng ngy ny Ma h 2017, cng ging nh ma h 2014, khng h
xut hin bt k du hiu no cho thy Ty Ban Nha, Nga, M hay nhng CLTD
khc t ra quan tm v chia s vi VN v tnh hnh phc tp trn Bin ng. Tt c
gn nh mc TCLTD duy nht l Bc Kinh mun lm g th lm65.
Tm kt lun:
Tng quan gia Vit Nam vi trt t ang n c m u bng s v thng l
nhn mnh tnh cht lun bin chuyn, lun thay i ca trt t quc t. Tuy nhin, s
v thng ca trt t th gii v s v thng ca VN li khng hon ton n khp
nhau trong qu trnh thnhtrhoikhng (C im qua cc ct mc ln trong
lch s th thy r). Nhng y li thuc v mt kha cnh khc ca ch Hi tho,
kha cnh tm linh. nh phi dng li y gi bi ti Ban T Chc theo ng
dead line. Ci g cha tin vit ra hay qu v c mi gia cc hng ch m vn cha
thy, hoc thy nhng cha ng, xin hn trong cc bui trao i trc tip ti Budapest.
Nu c tho lun lin quan n bi vit ny, tc gi rt mong nhn c cc gp
xung quanh cc vn m bn thn ngi vit nhiu lc vn cm thy get stuck in a
rut. Th nht, liu qu v c tin rng, trong mt tng lai trc mt, qu v v chng
ti, s c dp chng kin nhng bc chuyn Ph ng ca dn tc Vit Nam.
Hn nhin, bc chuyn ny s khng cn n roi st, nga st v o gio st no c.
Ch cn chng ta lm c mt vic nh ng cu s quan an ninh Putin, tng tuyn b
trc th gii, chng ti s quay li con ng m nhn loi /ang i bao lu nay
(o b ngn trong Pht php hnh nh cng khuyn nh vy). Th hai, gia hai
hng s P&D, i vi Vit Nam, ci g l quyt nh? Bn trong hay bn ngoi? V
thc y tin b, nhng vic c th lm trc mt ca chng ta l g? Tt c chng ta,
d bt k t u n y, u khng th khng suy ngh v hin ti v qu kh ca t
nc, khng th khng d bo cc tnh hung bt trc trong tng lai. Khng on
nh c tng lai th tng lai ca mnh, ca dn tc mnh d tr thnh tng lai
ca ngi khc, ca dn tc khc. l iu ti k trong quan h quc t. Trnh by
trn y ca ti ch gii hn trong cc mi tng tc (gi nh v trn thc t) gia
Vit Nam vi ci trt t ang n. Th ba, c c hai p n ni trn, chng ta
cn kho cu tho lun vi nhau v mt mi bang giao rt h trng, l quan h
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65
https://www.voatiengviet.com/a/tu-chinh-viet-nam-trung-quoc-truong-sa-repsol/3959779.html
TrungM, m trc mt l quan h ca b i TpTrump, vi gi nh, ng
Trump vn tn ti trong nm ti (ngha l cha b n hc), v ng Tp s vt cn
mt cch ngon mc ti i hi 19 CSTQ, vi s ni ln ca t tng Tp cn
Bnh ng vt trn c Mao ln ng. Vng, c th cn c nhiu cu hi khc na,
v sng vi tng lai ang n l c mt khi cc vn bt nh v bt ton, trong
khi bn thn VN vn trng thi trc ngng, cn hng c ca trt t th
gii th ang c cc c B ginh git nhau vit

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