Professional Documents
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Topics
Energyconsumption&petroleumsplace
SizeofU.S.industry
Majorrefiners
M j fi
Petroleumproducts
Basicpetroleumeconomics
Basic petroleum economics
Trendsforcrudeoil&gasolineprices
Whendorefinersmakemoney?
GeneralizedPetroleumRefinery
2
GrowthofU.S.EnergyConsumption
120
100
d=10 BTU)
80
15
Wood
EnergyConsumed(Quad
HydroelectricPower
NuclearElectricPower
60
Coal
NaturalGas
Petroleum
40
20
0
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Source:18501949,EnergyPerspectives:APresentationofMajorEnergyandEnergyRelatedData,U.S.DepartmentoftheInterior,
, gy p f j gy gy , p ,
1975;19502000,AnnualEnergyReview2000,Table1.3.
4
EnergyMarketsAreInterconnected
https://publicaffairs.llnl.gov/news/energy/energy.html
5
PetroleumPathway
6
U.S.RefiningCapacity
CompanieswithCapacitiesExceeding1Millionbbl/day(calendar)
CapacitiesforLLCrefineriessplitamongthepartnercompanies
BPPLC
MARATHON
CHEVRONCORP PDVAMERICAINC
EIA,Jan.1,2012database,publishedJune2012
EIA, Jan. 1, 2012 database, published June 2012
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/refinery_capacity_data/refcap_historical.html
7
U.S.OilfromImports
EIApublisheddatausedforcharts
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_wkly_dc_nusz00_mbblpd_w.htm
// / / /
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wiup_dcu_nus_w.htm
8
U.S.OilImports2009
http://www.eia.doe.gov/energy_in_brief/foreign_oil_dependence.cfm
9
LocationsofU.S.Refineries
NPRARefiningCapacityReport,January1,2011
NPRA R fi i C it R t J 1 2011
http://www.afpm.org/Statistics/
10
IndividualRefinerySizes 10Largest&10Smallest
AtmosphericCrude AtmosphericCrude
DistillationCapacity DistillationCapacity
CORPORATION State Site
(barrelsperstream (barrelspercalendar
day) day)
EXXONMOBILCORP Texas BAYTOWN 584,000 560,500
EXXONMOBILCORP Louisiana BATONROUGE 523,200 502,500
HOVENSALLC VirginIslands KINGSHILL 525,000 500,000
MARATHONPETROLEUMCORP Louisiana GARYVILLE 518,000 490,000
PDVAMERICAINC Louisiana LAKECHARLES 440,000 427,800
BPPLC Texas TEXASCITY 475,000 400,780
EXXONMOBILCORP Texas BEAUMONT 359,100 344,500
BPPLC Indiana WHITING 430,000 337,000
SUNOCOINC Pennsylvania PHILADELPHIA 355,000 335,000
CHEVRONCORP Mississippi PASCAGOULA 360,000 330,000
WORLDOILCO California SOUTHGATE 10,000 8,500
CALUMETLUBRICANTSCO Louisiana PRINCETON 8,655 8,300
MARTINRESOURCEMANAGEMENTGRP Arkansas SMACKOVER 7,700 7,500
BPPLC Alaska PRUDHOEBAY 8,000 6,935
VALEROENERGYCORP California WILMINGTONASPHALTPLANT 6,500 6,300
CONTINENTALREFININGCOLLC Kentucky SOMERSET 6,300 5,500
GOODWAYREFININGLLC Alabama ATMORE 5,000 4,100
GARCOENERGYLLC Wyoming DOUGLAS 4,500 3,000
SILVEREAGLEREFININGINC Wyoming EVANSTON 3,300 3,000
FORELANDREFININGCORP Nevada ELY 5,000 2,000
11
MajorchangestotheslateofUSrefineries
Motivacompleted$10billionJVexpansion
Increasedto600,000bpdcapacity,nowlargestinUS
Operatingproblemscausednearimmediateshutdownofnewcrudedistillationtrain
O ti bl d i di t h t d f d di till ti t i
Plantoexportrefinedproducts
Refineriesrequiringsweetcrudelackflexibility&severalshuttingdown
Phillips66soldTrainertoDeltaAirLines(185,000bpd)
JVformedbetweenSunoco&CarlyleGrouptocontinuetooperatePhiladelphiarefinery
(335 000 bpd)
(335,000bpd)
WasscheduledtocloseAugust2012
Braskem AmericawillpurchaseaportionofSunocosMarcusHoodrefinery(178,000
bpd) to produce
bpd)toproduce
Hess/PDVSAsHovensa refineryshutdown(500,000bpd)
Phillips66offeringAlliance(BelleChase)forsale(247,000bpd)
12
CompanyProfile Phillips66
AtmosphericCrude AtmosphericCrude
DistillationCapacity DistillationCapacity
CORPORATION State Site
(barrelsperstream (barrelspercalendar
day) day)
WRBREFININGLP Illinois WOODRIVER 345,000 328,000
CONOCOPHILLIPS Louisiana BELLECHASSE 260,000 247,000
CONOCOPHILLIPS Texas SWEENY 260,000 247,000
CONOCOPHILLIPS Louisiana WESTLAKE 252,000 239,400
CONOCOPHILLIPS NewJersey LINDEN 251,000 238,000
CONOCOPHILLIPS Oklahoma PONCACITY 215,188 198,400
WRBREFININGLP Texas BORGER 154,000 146,000
CONOCOPHILLIPS California WILMINGTON 147,000 139,000
CONOCOPHILLIPS California RODEO 128,000 120,200
CONOCOPHILLIPS W hi
Washington FERNDALE 107 500
107,500 100 000
100,000
CONOCOPHILLIPS Montana BILLINGS 62,600 58,000
CONOCOPHILLIPS Alaska PRUDHOEBAY 16,000 15,000
13
DistributionofU.S.RefineryCapacities
40 6,000
ar day]
Numberr of Operatiing Refinerries
35
5 000
5,000
bbl/calenda
30
4,000
25
apacity [Mb
20 3,000
15
2,000
Segment Ca
10
1,000
5
0 0
S
Less than 10 - 50 50 - 100 100 - 200 - 300 - 400 - Greater
10 Mbpd Mbpd Mbpd 200 300 400 500 than 500
Mbpd Mbpd Mbpd Mbpd Mbpd
14
U.S.RefineryCapacityHistoricalTrends
400 20
mday]
MMbbl/stream
300 15
mberofUSReffineries
eryCapacity[M
200 10
OperatingRefine
Num
100 5
0 0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source:http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_cap1_dcu_nus_a.htm
15
NewestGrassRootsRefineriesinU.S.
LastgrassrootscomplexrefineryinU.S.wasMarathonPetroleumsGaryville,LA,refinery
openedin1976
Twoothercomplexrefineriesopenedinthe1970saretheCOPAllianceRefinerynearNew
Orleans,LA,&theBPCherryPointRefineryinnorthwestWashington(1971)
Multiplesimplerefineries
Complexrefineriesinplanningstage
p p g g
HyperionEnergyCenter,400,000bpdrefinerynearUnionCounty,SD
WillincludePetcoke IGCCforpower&hydrogen
AirpermitwithStateSupremeCourt,rulingexpectedinSeptember2012atearliest
Air permit with State Supreme Court ruling expected in September 2012 at earliest
ArizonaCleanFuelsYuma,LLC,150,000bpdrefinerynearYuma,AZ
NopressreleasessinceMarch2009
MHACleanFuelsRefinery,15,000bpsd refineryontheFortBertholdIndianReservationnear
Makoti,ND
ReceivedkeyEPApermitfordischargingtreatedwastewaterAugust2011
16
PetroleumProducts
Therearespecificationsfor
over2,000individualrefinery
products
Intermediatefeedstockscan
beroutedtovariousunitsto
producedifferentblendstocks
Dependsuponthelocal
d h l l
economics&contractual
limitations
Ref:Unknownorigin.PossiblySoconyVacuumOilCompany,Inc.(1943)
18
U.S.Refinery&BlenderNetProduction
IncludesproductiontoApril2012
Source:http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_refp_dc_nus_mbbl_m.htm
19
U.S.Refinery&BlenderNetProduction
1.53ratioof
gasoline&naphtha
tomiddledistillates
EIA,refineryyield
EIA, refinery yield
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_pct_dc_nus_pct_m.htm
20
Crude&ProductPrices
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
22
RefineryEconomics
Whendorefinersmakemoney?
Highcrudeoilprices?
Lowcrudeoilprices?
L d il i ?
Itdepends!
Differencebetweenthesalepriceoftheproducts&purchasepriceofthecrudeoil
p p p p
Operatingcostscutintothismargin
Typicalprices
Whatisthepriceofcrudeoil?
Dependsonlocation,quality,
Whataretheproductprices?
What are the product prices?
23
PricesAreCrudeSpecific
Ref:Statistics,Oil&GasJournal,July9,2012
24
PricesAreCrudeSpecific
ScaleA:
Deduct$0.02/bblforeachwholedegreeAPIfrom40.9 to
East of the Rockies Price Change Gvty Adj 35.0API.
Altamont Yellow Wax 81.31 -0.20 B
Deduct$0.015/bblforeach.1degreeAPIbelow35.0API.
Bonito Sour (Onshore) 112.75 -0.25 A
Deepwater Sour (Onshore) (30) 109.50 0.00 F,G Deduct$0.015/bblforeach.1degreeAPIabove45.0API.
Deduct $0 015/bbl for each 1 degree API above 45 0API
East Texas 93.00 -0.25 none ScaleB:
Eugene Island Sour (Onshore) 113.50 0.00 A Deduct$0.015/bblforeach.1degreeAPIbelow40.0API.
Heavy Louisiana Sweet (Onshore) 116.75 -0.25 A
Deduct$0.015/bblforeach.1degreeAPIabove45.0API.
Light Louisiana Sweet (Onshore) 116.00 -0.25 A
New Mexico Intermediate 93 25
93.25 -0
0.25
25 none ScaleF:
New Mexico Sour (34) 90.25 -0.25 none Deduct$0.015/bblforeach.1degreeAPIbelow30.0API
North Texas Sweet 93.25 -0.25 none Add$0.015/bblforeach.1degreeAPIabove30.0 to35.0API
Oklahoma Sour 90.25 -0.25 none
Oklahoma Sweet 93.25 -0.25 none Add$0.02/bblforeachwholedegreeAPIfrom36 to40.0API.
Rocky Mountain Condensate 81.06 -0.20 H Deduct$0.015/bblforeach.1degreeAPIabove45.0API.
South Texas Light Sweet 91.25 -0.25 none ScaleG:
Southwest Wyoming Sweet 86.31 -0.20 E
Add$0.1/bblforeach.1weightpercentSulfur(wt%S)below2.0
Uinta Basin Black Wax 80.31 -0.20 B to1.0wt%S
West Texas Intermediate 93.25 -0.25 none
Deduct$0.1/bblforeach.1weightpercentSulfur(wt%S)above
West Texas Sour (34) 90.25 -0.25 none 2.0wt%S
Western Colorado 82 06
82.06 -0 20
-0.20 B
ScaleH:
Add$0.015/bblpremiumforeach0.1degreebelow45.0degrees
ChevronCrudeOilMarketing Deduct$0.05/bblforeach0.1degreeabove60.0degrees
EastoftheRockies Bulletin12E88
May9,2012
http://crudemarketing.chevron.com/posted_pricing_daily.asp
// /
25
PricesAreCrudeSpecific
160
Cushing, OK WTI
140 Weekly Brent
Weekly Mexico Maya
120
Crrude Price [$/bbl]
100
80
60
40
20
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Crude Price Relative to
C o Brent [$/b
bbl]
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
1997
1998
1999
2000
Cushing,
2001
Cushing OK WTI
2002
PricesAreCrudeSpecific
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
ProductEconomics CrackSpread
Estimatesthevalueaddedbytherefiningoperation
4standardspreads
532
532
5bbl crude 3bbls gasoline+2bbls heatingoil/diesel
321
3bbl crude 2bbls
3 bbl crude 2 bbls gasoline+1bbls
gasoline + 1 bbls heatingoil/diesel
heating oil/diesel
211
2bbl crude 1bbls gasoline+1bbls heatingoil/diesel
6321
6321
6bbl crude 3bbls gasoline+2bbls heatingoil/diesel+1bbl residualfueloil
Ruleofthumbforprofitableoperation
Longheldview greaterthan$4perbbl asstronglyprofitable
Currentview shouldbegreaterthan$9perbbl tobeprofitable
28
CrackSpread
Example Bloomberg,7/13/2012
Prices
WTICushingSpot $87.10perbbl
Brent $102.62perbbl
RBOBGasoline $2.8161pergal
HeatingOil $2.7882pergal
532Spreads
WTI 42 3 2.8161 2 7882 5 87.1
2 8161 2 2.7882 87 1
$30.71 perbbl
5
29
HistoricalCrudePrices&Margins
Spot Price Crack Spreads
$50 $160
Price [$/bbl]
Crude Oil - WTI
$120
de oil]
$30
ead [$/bbl crud
$100
$80
$10
Crack Spre
$60
$0
$40
C
-$10
$20
-$20 $0
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source:http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm
30
HistoricalCrudePrices&Margins
S tP
Spot Price
i C Crack
kSSpreads
d
5-3-2 Spread Based on Brent
$70 $160
5-3-2 Spread Based on WTI
Europe Brent
WTI Cushing,
g, OK
$60 $140
$50 $120
de oil]
$40 $100
$30 $80
Crack Spre
$20 $60
$10 $40
$0 $20
-$10 $0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source:http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm
31
HowMuchDoRefinersMakeFromGasoline?
RetailCostContributions
Per Gallon
PerGallon Per Barrel
PerBarrel
RetailPrice $3.73 $156.66
RefineryCosts
Refinery Costs $2.95 $123.76
Source:http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/gdu/gasdiesel.asp
32
HowMuchDoRefinersMakeFromDiesel?
RetailCostContributions
Per Gallon
PerGallon Per Barrel
PerBarrel
RetailPrice $3.98 $167.16
RefineryCosts
Refinery Costs $2.87 $120.36
Source:http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/gdu/gasdiesel.asp
33
Howdopricescompareonanenergybasis?
34
Howdopricescompareonanenergybasis?
35
EarlyHistory
Firstoilwellof"Colonel"EdwinL.Drake
August1859,OilCreekinnorthwesternPennsylvania
FirstrefineriesbuiltuparoundPennsylvaniaoilwells.
Batch distillation to recover kerosene
Batchdistillationtorecoverkerosene.
Keroseneviewedasasuperiorreplacementtowhaleoil
forlampoil.
StandardOilTrust
JohnD.Rockefelleracquiredpetroleum
interestsduringthelate1800s.
OrganizedastheStandardOilTrust
in1882.
U.S.SupremeCourtdissolvedin1911.
US S C t di l d i 1911
34companiesspunoff.
Changeinproductdemand
In1911,nation'skeroseneoutput
, p
eclipsedforthe1sttimebyadiscarded
byproduct gasoline
37
ImplementationofTechnologies
Year Processname Purpose
p Byproducts,etc.
yp
1862 Atmosphericdistillation Producekerosene Naphtha,tar,etc.
Lubricants(original) Asphalt,residual
1870 Vacuumdistillation
Crackingfeedstocks(1930's) cokerfeedstocks
1913 Thermalcracking Increasegasoline Residual,bunkerfuel
1916 Sweetening Reducesulfur&odor Sulfur
1930
1930 Thermal reforming
Thermalreforming Improve octane number
Improveoctanenumber Residual
1932 Hydrogenation Removesulfur Sulfur
1932 Coking Producegasolinebasestocks Coke
1933 Solventextraction Improvelubricantviscosityindex Aromatics
1935 Solventdewaxing Improvepourpoint Waxes
Improvegasolineyield
p g y Petrochemical
1935
1935 Cat polymeri ation
Cat.polymerization
&octanenumber feedstocks
Petrochemical
1937 Catalyticcracking Higheroctanegasoline
feedstocks
1939 Visbreaking Reduceviscosity Increaseddistillate,tar
1940 Alkylation Increasegasolineoctane&yield Highoctaneaviationgasoline
1940
1940 Isomerization Produce alkylation feedstock
Producealkylationfeedstock Naphtha
1942 Fluidcatalyticcracking Increasegasolineyield&octane Petrochemicalfeedstocks
1950 Deasphalting Increasecrackingfeedstock Asphalt
1952 Catalyticreforming Convertlowqualitynaphtha Aromatics
1954 Hydrodesulfurization Removesulfur Sulfur
1956 Inhibitorsweetening Removemercaptan Disulfides
Converttomoleculeswithhigh
1957 Catalyticisomerization Alkylationfeedstocks
octanenumber
1960 Hydrocracking Improvequalityandreducesulfur Alkylationfeedstocks
1974 Catalyticdewaxing Improvepourpoint Wax
Increasegasolineyieldfrom
1975 Residualhydrocracking Heavyresiduals
residual
Ref:http://www.osha.gov/dts/osta/otm/otm_iv/otm_iv_2.html
38
GenealogyOfMajorU.S.Refiners
Ref:http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/refinerycapacity/
39
GenealogyOfMajorU.S.Refiners
Ref:http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/refinerycapacity/
40
DescriptionofPetroleumRefinery
Manageshydrocarbonmolecules
Organized&coordinatedarrangementofmanufacturingprocesses
Providephysical&chemicalchangeofcrudeoil
Salableproductswithspecifications&volumesasdemandedbythemarketplace
Completerefinerywillinclude:
Complete refinery will include:
Tankageforstorage
Dependablesourceforelectricpower
Wastedisposal&treatmentfacilities
Productblendingfacilities
Aroundtheclockoperations
Around the clock operations
Conversionunits
41
PetroleumRefineryBlockFlowDiagram
43
PetroleumRefineryBlockFlowDiagram
Gases
Polymer-
l Sulfur
lf
Sulfur
ization Plant
LPG
Sat Gas
Gas
Plant
Butanes Fuel Gas
Alkyl
Feed Alkyla- LPG
Gas tion
Separation Polymerization
Naphtha
& Isom-
Stabilizer
bl erization
Light Naphtha
Alkylate
Aviation
Isomerate
Gasoline
Automotive
Reformate
Gasoline
Naphtha Naphtha Solvents
Heavy
Naphtha Hydro- Reform-
treating ing Naphtha
Atmos-
pheric
Distillation
ll
Jet Fuels
Kerosene
Crude
Oil
Desalter Kerosene
Distillate Cat Solvents
AGO
Hydro- Naphtha Distillate
cracking Treating &
Hydro- Heating Oils
Blending
Gas Oil Fluidized treating
Cat Diesel
LVGO Hydro- Catalytic Distillates
treating Cracking
Vacuum
Distillation
ll Fuel Oil
HVGO
Cycle Oils
Residual
Fuel Oils
DAO
Solvent
Deasphal-
SDA
ting Coker Bottoms Asphalts
Naphtha Naphtha
Visbreak-
Distillates
ing Heavy Fuel Oil
Coker Bottoms
Gas
Vacuum Oil Lube Oil Lubricant
Residuum
Solvent
Greases
Dewax-
ing Waxes
Waxes
Coke
45