Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2010 8 S.K.S.
1km1km
11 22
(1)11
423,607,372 22 1
(2)11
1,520,747,548 22 1,520,747,548 (3)
11 232,043,300 22
381,234,397
11
II
English Abstract
Impact of Habitat Fragmentation on Conservation Network
Planning and Conservation Cost
by
Lin, Hui-Hsuan
June 2010
III
IV
VI
VII
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...............................................................................................7
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I .............................................................................44
............................................................................................50
IV
.........................................................................................52
....................................................................................................52
................................................................................53
55
3 .....................................................................58
.................................................................
V
1 ....................................................................................2
2 ................................................................................................6
3 ............................................................................7
4 ................................................................................................9
5 ..................................................................................24
6 ..................................................................................................25
7 ..........................................................................................25
8 ..............................................................................29
9 .......................................................31
10 .....................................................32
11 .....................................................33
12 j ..........................................................................34
13 11 ........................................................................36
14 22 ........................................................................37
15 ................................................................................42
16 ........................................................................46
17 ........................................................................48
1 ..................................................................13
VI
2 ...........16
3 ..................................................................21
4 ..............................................................................23
5 i t .................................................................34
6 ..................................................................................35
7 ...........................................39
8 ()............................40
9 ()............................41
10 ................................................................................43
11 .....................................................................45
12 .........................................................45
13 ................................................................47
14 .....................................................47
15 .................................................................49
16 .....................................................49
17 .............................52
18 .............................................52
VII
(Population
Reference BureauPRB)( 1) 1850 12.7
1650 2.54 2002 62.2 1950 2.47
2025 80
2050 93.5
72 1
( 29.16 )
1
1 0.00405
n
2
Shannon-Weaver H Pk ln( Pk ) Pk K k n
k 1
1
(Population Reference Bureau)
1
Barbier et.al.1993)
1872
1984
8 19 17
32 9
19.5
2
The World Conservation Union, IUCN 1997
15 (
)1km1km
1km1km
15
(2008)
3
(
)(
)()
GAMES(General Algebraic Modeling System)
(geographic information systemGIS)
1
(GIS) 15
2 GAMES
3
GIS 2
GIS
GAMS
GAMS
(habitat fragmentation)
(Lord et al.,1990Fahrig,2003) 3
()(matrix)
(patch)
Fahrig(1998)
(Fahrig,2003)
Wilcove et al.1986Fahrig2003
3 ()
(1)
6
(2)
(3)
(4)
(Fahrig,2003)
1. (1)(2)
Preston(1962)
S=cAz
S A c z
2. (spatial pattern)
(ecological process)
(2008)
(matrix-patch-corridor)
2003)
conduithabitatfilter
barriersourcesink
(Forman1995) 4
3. (metapopulation) Levins 1970
metapopulation
(2003)
conduithabitatfilterbarriersource
sink
Hess and Fisher2001
(disturbances)
(gaps)
(Gibbs,2001)
(Vos et al.,2001)
(Foppen et al.,1999)
(hotspot)
(WWF) 2009
1. 42 2050
75 2. 1998
16 2060
80% 3.
50 70%
4.
1970 14 2040
9
3 5.
89
6.
7.
8.
2080
80 9. 25-
32 36
10.
1983 66
75%
10
(2009) (
(richness)
(native species)
(exotic species)
(patch)
(home range)
(1)
(2) (
) (3)
(Murica C.,1995)
11
1. 74(Stratford and
Stouffer,1999)
2. (Tympanuchus cupido)
(Bartramia longicauda) 77 (Winter
and Faaborg,1999)
3. (Tragopan caboti) 10
(Dang and Zheng,2004)
1. (Seiurus aurocapillus)
(Villard et al.,1993)
2. (Petroica goodenovii) 100m
(Major et al.,1999)
3. (Tragopan caboti) 1000m (Dang
and Zheng,2004)
1. (Cyanocitta stelleri) (Catharus
ustulatus) (Certhia
americana) (Empidonax difficilis)
(Ixoreus naevius) (Brand and
George,2001)
2. Gates Gysel(1978)21
12
3. (Calyptorhynchus funereus)
(Saunders,1982)
4. (Parus carolinensis) (Parus
bicolor) (Dolby and
Grubb,1999)
2009
(fragmentation threshold)
(Accipiter gentilis)
(fine-grained)
(Dendroica cerulea)
(Strix occidentalis)
13
()
Hammond(2002)
(ecosystem-based planning)(1)
(2)(3)
(4)
(5)
14
(systematic conservation planning)
(representativeness)
(persistence)(1)
(2)(3)(4)
(5)(6)
(2008)
( 2020
2050 2100 )
007
1km1km
15
A2 6.9296 13.3196 33.2552 16.6565
B2 5.8049 11.0381 24.3226 7.3379
2008
1 10
NDVI 2
3 NDVI
J
Aj t Cj t
Mi nt 1
T j 1
( 2- 1)
(1 + r )t 1
s .t . Fi t Aj t Zi j t + M Ui t " i ,t ( 2- 2)
j
U
i
it I wt "i ( 2- 3)
Aj t Aj t + 1 "j ,t ( 2- 4)
Aj t {0, 1}
Zi j t {0, 1}
Ui t {0, 1}
Ajt t j 1 0
Cjt t j
wt t
16
Zijt t j i 1 0
Fit i t
M
Uit t i 0 1
I
(2-1) Ajt
Ajt 1 j t j
Cjt
(2-
2)
(2-3) t (2-
4)
17
32009
15
(MVP)
18
MDA)(home rangeHR)
(MDA)
(HR)(MVP)
Schoener(1968)(kg)(ha)
= [Body mass]1.14100(3-1)
(MVP)
(MDA) 3
19
3 (1ha=0.01km2)
family c
order (kg) (ha) (km2) (km)
Arborophila
0.345b 173,743.12 1737.43 41.68
Gallifor Phasianidae () crudigularis
mes Lophura
0.9467 b 549,173.24 5491.73 74.11
swinhoii
Syrmaticus
0.709 b 395,014.22 3950.14 62.85
mikado
Urocissa
0.231a 136,482.64 1364.83 36.94
Passerifo Corvidae caerulea
rmes Parus holsti
0.0164ab 6,686.34 66.86 8.18
Paridae
Actinodura
0.0318a 14,213.92 142.14 11.92
Timaliidae morrisoniana
Garrulax
0.0776 a 39,305.84 393.06 19.83
() morrisonianus
Heterophasia
0.0477 a 22,626.24 226.26 15.04
auricularis
Liocichla
0.0316a 14,141.40 141.41 11.89
() steerii
Yuhina
0.0123 a 4,786.32 47.86 6.92
brunneiceps
Pycnonotus
0.0286b 12,618.48 126.18 11.23
Pycnonotidae taivanus
Myophonus
0.1553 a 86,806.44 868.06 29.46
Turdidae insularis
Luscinia
0.0145 a 5,816.10 58.16 7.63
Muscicapidae johnstoniae
Bradypterus
0.0135 a 5,359.23 53.59 7.32
Sylviidae alishanensis
Regulus
0.0058 a 2,030.56 20.31 4.51
Reguliidae goodfellowi
a.b.
c. H.R.() MVP 0.01 MVP 5,846
7,252 (Reed et al.,2003)
20
(2005)
2400 3719.7
2400
1.55 23.3
MVP
(weight)
(W)
15 1 .
4 Schoener(1968)
(kg)(ha) 3-1
3-1
2009
(2008)
21
4 (km2)
(2008)
1737.43 410 1666
()
5491.73 116 1666
3950.14 33 1666
1364.83 162 686
66.86 153 686
142.14 99 686
393.06 204 686
()
226.26 686 686
141.41 686 686
()
47.86 686 686
126.18 416 686
868.06 467 686
58.16 203 686
53.59 130 686
20.31 111 686
2009
22
()
( 5)
()
(carry capacity)
23
()
()( 7)
24
2008 1 2 3
3
3
I (2008)
3(4-1)(4-2)
4
(4-2) 4
(2km2km) 4 X
(4-3)4-
4) 3
A C
T jt jt
Mi n
j 1
t 1
( 4- 1)
(1 + r )
t 1
s .t
Fi t ( Aj t Zi j t Aj + 1,t Zi ,j + 1,t Aj + X ,t Zi ,j + X ,t Aj + ( X + 1) ,t Zi ,j + ( X + 1) ,t ) 4 + M Ui t ,
j
"i , t ( 4- 2)
U
i
it I wt "i ( 4- 3)
Aj t Aj t + 1 "j ,t ( 4- 4)
Aj t { 0, 1} , Zi j t { 0, 1} , Ui t { 0, 1} ( 4- 5)
25
Ajt t j 1 0
Cjt t j
wt t
Zijt t j i 1 0
Fit i t
X
M
Uit t i 0 1
Ajt
2km2km
(4-2) Ajt
Zijt4 A Z 0,1 4
1 4 4
3-2
26
HR
W
4 (2km2km)
GAMS
4
(2km2km)
II
4 (2km2km)
f
HR.W 4 4 1km*1km
I 4
8 II
f2
f *
4
2
II
f *I
f*
f* f
27
I II
8
HR
W
HR W
II
28
7 7 I
7 7
2020 2050
2100 91011)
7 7
HR.W
4( 5) I 2 2
( 12)
29
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30 31 32 33 34 35 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
43 44 45 46 47 48 49 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30 31 32 33 34 35 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
43 44 45 46 47 48 49 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30 31 32 33 34 35 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
43 44 45 46 47 48 49 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30 31 32 33 34 35 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
43 44 45 46 47 48 49 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
10
31
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30 31 32 33 34 35 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
43 44 45 46 47 48 49 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30 31 32 33 34 35
29 30 31 32 33 34 35
36 37 38 39 40 41 42
36 37 38 39 40 41 42
43 44 45 46 47 48 49
43 44 45 46 47 48 49
11
5 i t
Fit t=1 t=2 t=3 t=4
i=1 4 432 4 4
i=2 4 4 4 4
i=3 4 4 4 4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
(350) (300) (300) (400) (300) (200) (200)
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
(250) (300) (250) (400) (300) (200) (250)
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
(400) (300) (200) (250) (200) (350) (350)
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
(400) (300) (300) (250) (150) (300) (250)
29 30 31 32 33 34 35
(200) (400) (200) (300) (250) (350) (300)
36 37 38 39 40 41 42
(150) (200) (200) (250) (200) (200) (250)
43 44 45 46 47 48 49
(300) (250) (200) (150) (200) (250) (250)
()
12 j
()
I 4
13 1422
( 14) 11 ( 13)
( 6) 11
8,355 22 10,376
33
24%
6
()
11 8,355
24
22 10,376
34
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
(350) (300) (300) (400) (300) (200) (200) (350) (300) (300) (400) (300) (200) (200)
i1i2 i2 i1i2
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
(250) (300) (250) (400) (300) (200) (250) (250) (300) (250) (400) (300) (200) (250)
i1i2 i1i2
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
(400) (300) (200) (250) (200) (350) (350) (400) (300) (200) (250) (200) (350) (350)
i1i2 i1i2 i2
22 23 24 25 26 27 28 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
(400) (300) (300) (250) (150) (300) (250) (400) (300) (300) (250) (150) (300) (250)
i1 i3 i1i2 i2 i3
29 30 31 32 33 34 35 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
(200) (400) (200) (300) (250) (350) (300) (200) (400) (200) (300) (250) (350) (300)
i3
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
(150) (200) (200) (250) (200) (200) (250) (150) (200) (200) (250) (200) (200) (250)
i3 i3
43 44 45 46 47 48 49 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
(300) (250) (200) (150) (200) (250) (250) (300) (250) (200) (150) (200) (250) (250)
i3 i3 i3
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
(350) (300) (300) (400) (300) (200) (200) (350) (300) (300) (400) (300) (200) (200)
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
(250) (300) (250) (400) (300) (200) (250) (250) (300) (250) (400) (300) (200) (250)
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
(400) (300) (200) (250) (200) (350) (350) (400) (300) (200) (250) (200) (350) (350)
i1i2 i1i2 i2 i1i2
22 23 24 25 26 27 28 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
(400) (300) (300) (250) (150) (300) (250) (400) (300) (300) (250) (150) (300) (250)
i1i2 i1i2i3 i3 i1i2 i1i2i3 i3
29 30 31 32 33 34 35 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
(200) (400) (200) (300) (250) (350) (300) (200) (400) (200) (300) (250) (350) (300)
i3 i3
i1
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
(150) (200) (200) (250) (200) (200) (250) (150) (200) (200) (250) (200) (200) (250)
i3 i3
43 44 45 46 47 48 49 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
(300) (250) (200) (150) (200) (250) (250) (300) (250) (200) (150) (200) (250) (250)
13 11
35
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
(350) (300) (300) (400) (300) (200) (200) (350) (300) (300) (400) (300) (200) (200)
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
(250) (300) (250) (400) (300) (200) (250) (250) (300) (250) (400) (300) (200) (250)
i1i2 i1i2 i1i2 i1i2
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
(400) (300) (200) (250) (200) (350) (350) (400) (300) (200) (250) (200) (350) (350)
i1i2 i1i2 i1i2 i1i2 i2
22 23 24 25 26 27 28 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
(400) (300) (300) (250) (150) (300) (250) (400) (300) (300) (250) (150) (300) (250)
i1 i3 i1i2 i2 i3
29 30 31 32 33 34 35 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
(200) (400) (200) (300) (250) (350) (300) (200) (400) (200) (300) (250) (350) (300)
i3 i1 i3 i3
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
(150) (200) (200) (250) (200) (200) (250) (150) (200) (200) (250) (200) (200) (250)
i3 i3 i3 i3
43 44 45 46 47 48 49 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
(300) (250) (200) (150) (200) (250) (250) (300) (250) (200) (150) (200) (250) (250)
i3 i3
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
(350) (300) (300) (400) (300) (200) (200) (350) (300) (300) (400) (300) (200) (200)
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
(250) (300) (250) (400) (300) (200) (250) (250) (300) (250) (400) (300) (200) (250)
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
(400) (300) (200) (250) (200) (350) (350) (400) (300) (200) (250) (200) (350) (350)
i1i2 i1i2 i2 i1i2
22 23 24 25 26 27 28 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
(400) (300) (300) (250) (150) (300) (250) (400) (300) (300) (250) (150) (300) (250)
i1i2 i1i2i3 i3 i1i2 i1i2i3 i3
29 30 31 32 33 34 35 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
(200) (400) (200) (300) (250) (350) (300) (200) (400) (200) (300) (250) (350) (300)
i1 i3 i3 i1 i1i3 i3
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
(150) (200) (200) (250) (200) (200) (250) (150) (200) (200) (250) (200) (200) (250)
43 44 45 46 47 48 49 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
(300) (250) (200) (150) (200) (250) (250) (300) (250) (200) (150) (200) (250) (250)
14 22
36
2009
1km1km ( 37,552 )
15 (
) A2 4(
2020 2050 2100 )
5(NDVI)
15 15
7()
4
A2
(IPCC,2000)
5
NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index)-1 1
37
2100
35 2
30 20
40
7 (km2)
2020 2050 2100
38
2020
2020 2050 2050 2100
2020
15
2100
8
2020 23.5%
596.1%2020 2050
32.7%2100 2050
61.4%
8 ()
2020 - 2050-2020 2100-2050
(km )
2
(%) (km ) 2
(%) (km2) (%)
9 2050 34.2%
368.6% 2100
69.9%
189.1%2020 2100
39
68.3%
9 ()
2050- 2100- 2100-2020
(km ) 2
(%) (km ) 2
(%) (km2) (%)
40
15 () 1km 1km
( 8)
37,552 76,000 ( 200 380
)
15
()
(MDA)
15 (2008)
( 10)(MVP)
(MVP)
(order) 10
10 (km2)
2020 2050 2100
1. 1664 1664 1664 1664
2. 1664 1664 1664 1664
3. 1664 1664 1664 1664
4. 688 688 688 688
5. 688 688 688 688
6. 688 688 688 688
7. 688 688 688 688
8. 688 688 688 688
9. 688 688 688 688
10. 688 688 688 688
11. 688 688 688 688
12. 688 688 688 688
13. 688 688 688 688
14. 688 688 688 688
15. 688 688 688 688
2008
2007
I GAMS
76,000
() 38,000
I
4
I
10 4 4
11,455 (114.55 )
I 182 ( 13
14 ) 9 ( 11) 4
2020 2050 2100
1
2020 2050
2100 1
2100 4
11 (km2)
2020 2050 2100
1. 115 117 67 0
2. 19 52 19 0
3. 0 0 0 0
4. 161 127 73 0
5. 1 16 0 0
6. 0 0 0 0
7. 0 0 0 0
8. 0 68 35 0
9. 0 22 1 0
10. 0 38 8 0
11. 0 175 157 11
12. 154 133 80 0
13. 0 0 0 0
14. 0 0 0 0
15. 0 0 0 0
12 (km2)
2020 2050 2100
1. 12 12 12 0
2. 4 4 4 0
3. 0 0 0 0
4. 12 12 12 0
5. 4 4 0 0
6. 0 0 0 0
7. 0 0 0 0
8. 0 4 8 0
9. 0 4 0 0
10. 0 4 4 0
11. 0 4 4 4
12. 8 8 8 0
13. 0 0 0 0
14. 0 0 0 0
15. 0 0 0 0
16 45 35 (1,575 )
13 1
1
16
13 (km2)
2020 2050 2100
1. 1184 1243 1310 1210
2. 993 1170 1192 1060
3. 1201 958 872 389
4. 159 415 496 716
5. 959 1149 1152 927
6. 186 1200 1107 621
7. 443 950 815 309
8. 1313 1315 1328 1134
9. 1186 1230 1210 954
10. 1310 1314 1272 1018
11. 0 228 320 530
12. 771 1146 1228 1206
13. 651 998 859 352
14. 784 1142 1027 507
15. 279 898 753 265
14 (km2)
2020 2050 2100
1. 132 132 132 132
2. 148 148 148 148
3. 240 240 240 240
4. 12 12 12 12
5. 80 80 80 80
6. 40 40 40 40
7. 124 124 124 124
8. 72 72 72 72
9. 96 96 96 96
10. 80 80 80 80
11. 0 8 8 8
12. 32 32 32 32
13. 116 116 116 116
14. 132 132 132 132
15. 140 140 140 140
17 53 32 (1,696 )
15 15
14
2050
2100 10
17
15 (km2)
2020 2050 2100
1. 1099 1320 1417 1532
2. 1000 1290 1367 1386
3. 1486 1190 1100 653
4. 82 316 407 770
5. 956 1339 1386 1254
6. 896 1435 1364 941
7. 748 1142 1025 514
8. 1339 1457 1521 1464
9. 1331 1437 1473 1295
10. 1342 1501 1532 1358
11. 84 108 175 476
12. 644 1177 1308 1520
13. 1092 1199 1078 580
14. 641 1368 1278 798
15. 437 1088 973 445
16 (km2)
2020 2050 2100
1. 124 124 124 124
2. 144 144 144 144
3. 296 296 296 296
4. 8 8 8 8
5. 80 80 80 80
6. 192 192 192 192
7. 208 208 208 208
8. 72 72 72 72
9. 108 108 108 108
10. 84 84 84 84
11. 20 20 20 20
12. 28 28 28 28
13. 196 196 196 196
14. 108 108 108 108
15. 220 220 220 220
3(11
) I(22 )
17 11
22 4
(2100 )
311 I22 1
14
311 I22
18
11 423,607,372 22
1
11 1,520,747,548 22
15,165,602
11 232,043,300 22
399,449,245
17
311 I22
27,344,000 450,945,372
( 182 ) ( 4 ) ( 1 ) ( 1 )
12,800,000 1,533,547,548 421,421,928
( 1575 ) ( 14 ) ( 14 ) ( 14 )
428,912,000 196,868,700 47,677,603
( 1696 ) () () ( 14 )
18
311 I22
423,607,372
( 182 )
1,520,747,548 408,621,928
( 1575 )
-232,043,300 -381,234,397
( 1696 )
3(11 ) I(22
)
11
22
11
I
22
II
2008
2008
2005
2008424 34-43
2005
2003-
200929 6 3181-
3187
2008
2007
48 1-18
2009
---
(III)NSC97-2625-M170-002
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