Utfordringer ved at indfre

digitale centralbank-penge (DCP)

Thorvald Grung Moe

Copenhagen Business School, 6. mai 2017
 Agenda
Hvorfor DCP?
Hvordan lage DCP?
Ulike syn p DCP
Utfordringer
Ulike modeller for DCP
Veien videre
HVORFOR DCP?
 Bitcoin (Satoshi Nakamoto, 2009)
v The root problem with conventional
currency is all the trust thats required
to make it work.
v The central bank must be trusted not to
debase the currency, but the history of fiat
currencies is full of breaches of that trust.
v Banks must be trusted to hold our money
and transfer it electronically, but they lend it
out in waves of credit bubbles with barely a
fraction in reserve.

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Virtual currencies (cryptocurrency)
VC = digital representation of
value
Not issued by a CB or public authority
Not necessarily pegged to fiat
currency (i.e. not redeemable at par)
E-money = digital representation
of fiat currency
ref. EU e-money directive

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 One Bank Research Agenda
The issue of digital Its also why we have
currencies forms an asked for help, hoping to
important part of our encourage the wider
One Bank Research academic community to
Agenda think about the big policy
questions
Utfordringer ved digitale penger for sentralbanker

We need to anticipate and manage the risks and

benefits that could arise from the broader adoption of
e-money. The Bank will explore these and many other
trends over the course of our three-year corporate plan
(Bank of Canada, 2015)

The overarching question is whether it is important for

there to be a state means of payment in order to
maintain confidence in the payment system (Riksbanken,
2016)

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Alle jobber n med digitale penger
EBA: Opinion on virtual currencies (2014)
BIS: Digital currencies (2015)
ECB: Virtual currency schemes a further analysis (2015)
IMF: Virtual Currencies and Beyond (2016)
OECD: Fin-tech and disruptive innovation in finance (2016)
FSB: Fintech Describing the Landscape and a Framework
for Analysis (2016)
EU Parlamentet: Call for virtual currency watchdog (2016)

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HVORDAN LAGE DCP?
Verdibaserte eller kontobaserte CBP
Verdibasert Kontobasert (i CB)
Kontanter Reservepenger
Digitale wallets Folke-penger
Stored value cards

Begge kan benytte blockchain teknologi, om enn p ulike mter

Kontobaserte CBP vil ikke vre anonyme

Yves Mersch (ECB): Digital Base Money an assessment from the ECBs perspective, January 2017
 Blockchain baserte DCP?
DLT/Blockchain er laget for et
betalingssystem uten tillit
Det er bde dyrt og sakte, bl.a.
fordi det tar tid verifisere
betalinger
Hvorfor ikke bruke (digitale)
sentralbankpenger?
 CBDC uten DLT?

DLT not mature enough for

eurozone usage (13.4.17)
Overcoming the capacity, cost and anonymity
limitations would probably be easier by creating an
entirely new technology, rather than use bitcoin type
DLT
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 Et kontobasert DCP system

We prefer to focus on the economic, rather than

technological, issues, and so we will be exploring digital
cash as a simple extension of the existing system,
allowing members of the public to hold accounts at the
Bank of England and using a centralised payment
system to track transfers of digital cash.

DIGITAL CASH Why Central Banks Should Start Issuing Electronic Money (2016)
 Alle m f konto i Nationalbanken
Gode penge arbejder for
en pengereform som
betyder at kun
Nationalbanken kan Giv Danmark et nyt, demokratisk
skabe penge og at alle pengesystem
borgere fr en konto i
Nationalbanken til ln og
til daglige betalinger.
ULIKE SYN P DCP
Hvor viktig er det bruke sentralbankpenger i
(retail) betalinger?

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 Brutto vs. Nettooppgjr i CB
Banker gjr opp enkeltbetalinger i CB
Bruttooppgjr (RTGS)
Kunder gjr opp betalinger i banker
Nettooppgjr (i bankpenger)
Market mechanisms should be the primary engine
for achieving and maintaining both efficiency and
safety in retail payments (BIS, 2003)
Fast retail payments is coming
Fast payments can be defined as payments in which
the transmission of the payment message and the
availability of final funds to the payee occur in real
time or near-real time and on as near to a 24-hour
and 7-day (24/7) basis as possible.
The clearest benefit of fast payment is to complete
time-sensitive payments quickly
BIS 2016
 Hvorfor endre p noe som er bra?

Norways financial market infrastructures

(FMIs) are modern and stable. There is a
strong legal basis for the supervision and
oversight of FMIs, and the authorities have
adequate resources to discharge their duties
IMF FSAP Report 2015
UTFORDRINGER
 Hvor mange DCP trengs?
Mltall eller etterkomme ettersprsel?
Hvorfor ikke bruke vanlige penger?
Hvem skal bestemme?
Forholdet til Finansdepartementet
Uavhengig sentralbank?
Pengepolitikken?
 Organisering av betalingssystemet
Alle betalinger i sentralbankpenger
Banker ikke lenger deltakere i CB
oppgjr
Agenter som formidler betalinger?
En slags ny type bank
Utenlandske konti?
 Hvordan sikre kreditten?
Kreditt basert p eksisterende penger
loanable fund theory
Statlig allokeringsplan av kreditt?
Mister elastisitet i systemet?
Finansiering av arbeidskapital
Banking vs. Currency school
 David Ricardo (1823): Plan for the
Establishment of a National Bank
The Bank of England performs two operations of
banking, which are quite distinct, and have no
necessary connection with each other: it issues a
paper currency as a substitute for a metallic one; and
it advances money in the way of loans to merchants
and others.

That these two operations of banking have no

1772 1823 necessary connection, will appear obvious from this
that they might be carried on by two separate bodies,
without the slightest loss of advantage, either to the
country, or to the merchants who receive
accommodations from such loans.
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ULIKE MODELLER FOR DCP
Hvilken modell er best egnet til
sikre publikums betalingsmidler?
Kontopenger i sentralbanken
Direkte eller indirekte
Kontopenger i private foretak
100% reserver i sentralbankpenger
Plassere i (korte) statspapirer
Plassere i andre sikre papirer
Statsgaranti (?)
Stand-alone eller del av konsernstruktur?
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Tobins reformed system (1987)
Government Notes and Coins (fiat money)
Deposited Currency (in private banks)
No insurance!
Commercial banks (stripped)
Deposit insurance
Investment banks (affiliates?)
+ Government investment banks?
RFC type institutions
 Variasjoner av Tobins forslag
Postbank innskudd Postal Savings System Act
bare i statspapirer of June 25, 1910
Narrow banks Deposits were backed by
(Litan) any safe "the full faith and credit
asset of the United States
Government"

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Sentralbank DC eller Treasury DC?

US Treasury utsteder mynt

Federal Reserve utsteder sedler
Ikke penbart at sentralbanken skal sikre
trygge elektroniske betalingsmidler
Alternativ til CBP og 100% reserve (private)
money, kan vre (garanterte) innskudd i en
statsbank (f. eks. Postbank)

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 Tentativ konklusjon

Gradvis utvikling ingen hjrnelsninger

Add-on ingen full-scale konvertering (ref.
Kumhof)
Alternativ til kontanter viktig for beredskapen
Viktig sikre trygge innskudd som brebjelken i
betalingssystemet
Alt A: Etablere eget betalingssystem for garanterte
innskudd
Alt B: Etablere statsbank for sikre innskudd (med lav rente)
Alt B: Etablere eget (delegert?) betalingssystem for CBP
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VEIEN VIDERE
 Vi drukner i gjeld
I dag skaber bankerne
nye penge ved at lne
penge ud og skabe gld.
Dette pengesystem har
udviklet sig i stilhed og
uden politisk
indblanding, isr i de
seneste 50 r.
kt forstelse for at banker lager penger
Not intermediating savings to investment

It is high time we rediscover the role of the

financial cycle in macroeconomics
We need to capture more systematically the
monetary nature of our economies, i.e.
Modelling economies in which financial
intermediaries generate purchasing power ex
nihilo
Claudio Borio, BIS WP 395, 2012
 Men, fortsatt sterke motkrefter
Balanserte budsjetter
Motvilje mot statsbanker og offentlige
kreditt-allokering
Sterk preferanse for markedslsninger
Hvor er markedssvikten?
=> Turn the table! Change the frame
 Tema for diskusjon
All or nothing?
Hva med mellomlsninger (postbank)?
Sentralbank- eller statspenger?
Hvilket argument er viktigst for DCP?
Husholdningenes gjeld
Beredskap
Kredittallokering
Eller andre hvilke?