DBF ASSIGNMENT 1

Variables

GDP DATA

CEMENT CONSUMPTION DATA

Year Quarter time Quarterly Quarterly Cement GDP growth rate

cement GDP consumption over previous
consumption growth rate over quarter
previous quarter
1996 1 1 17.2 390 -5% 0.75%
2 2 16.0 392 -7% 0.41%
3 3 15.9 396 -1% 1.19%
4 4 19.1 402 20% 1.60%
1997 1 5 18.4 409 -4% 1.63%
2 6 16.2 414 -12% 1.31%
3 7 18.4 422 14% 1.81%
4 8 20.9 427 14% 1.31%
1998 1 9 19.3 434 -8% 1.62%
2 10 17.4 446 -10% 2.58%
3 11 19.7 451 14% 1.25%
4 12 23.4 459 19% 1.65%
1999 1 13 23.8 468 2% 2.10%
2 14 20.5 469 -14% 0.13%
3 15 22.0 475 8% 1.33%
4 16 25.7 475 17% 0.04%
2000 1 17 24.9 478 -3% 0.54%
2 18 20.7 488 -17% 2.08%
3 19 21.6 494 4% 1.24%
4 20 23.1 505 7% 2.30%
2001 1 21 25.7 509 12% 0.81%
2 22 22.1 512 -14% 0.62%
3 23 24.3 515 10% 0.59%
4 24 26.9 516 11% 0.08%
2002 1 25 27.8 527 3% 2.25%
2 26 25.0 541 -10% 2.53%
3 27 26.2 555 5% 2.63%
4 28 28.6 573 9% 3.28%
2003 1 29 29.1 575 2% 0.36%
2 30 26.3 588 -10% 2.21%
3 31 27.5 602 4% 2.38%
4 32 31.0 615 13% 2.14%
2004 1 33 30.2 626 -3% 1.88%
2 34 28.4 645 -6% 2.95%
3 35 31.2 654 10% 1.40%
 4 36 33.3 671 7% 2.55%
2005 1 37 34.0 688 2% 2.53%
2 38 30.4 697 -11% 1.35%
3 39 33.3 720 10% 3.38%
4 40 37.8 733 13% 1.74%
2006 1 41 37.1 753 -2% 2.76%
2 42 33.7 773 -9% 2.58%
3 43 37.4 786 11% 1.78%
4 44 41.1 812 10% 3.26%
2007 1 45 40.7 817 -1% 0.63%
2 46 38.0 826 -7% 1.03%
3 47 39.9 832 5% 0.81%
4 48 45.4 833 14% 0.12%
2008 1 49 44.0 822 -3% -1.39%
2 50 40.8 866 -7% 5.35%
3 51 43.8 888 7% 2.61%
4 52 49.4 908 13% 2.21%
2009 1 53 39.2 932 -21% 2.68%
2 54 36.6 954 -7% 2.34%
3 55 38.6 982 6% 2.94%
4 56 43.9 1005 14% 2.29%
2010 1 57 42.0 1022 -4% 1.75%
2 58 38.5 1036 -8% 1.36%
3 59 39.5 1035 3% -0.10%
4 60 31.2 1052 -21% 1.64%
2011 1 61 42.3 1066 36% 1.37%
2 62 40.7 1079 -4% 1.17%
3 63 44.1 1099 8% 1.85%
4 64 50.3 1111 14% 1.15%
Plots

Quarterly cement consumption time series

60.0
QUARTERLY CEMENT CONSUMPTION

50.0

40.0

30.0
(MMT)

20.0

10.0

0.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
TIME
 Quarterly GDP time series
1200
QUARTERLY GDP (bnUSD)

1000

800

600

400

200

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
TIME

QUARTERLY CEMENT CONSUMPTION GROWTH SERIES

40%
CEMENT CONSUMPTION GROWTH
RATE OVER PREVIOUS QUARTER

30%

20%

10%

0%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
-10%

-20%

-30%
TIME

QUARTERLY GDP GROWTH RATE SERIES

6.00%
GDP GROWTH RATE OVERR PREVIOUS

5.00%

4.00%

3.00%
QUARTER

2.00%

1.00%

0.00%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
-1.00%

-2.00%
TIME

Preliminary Inference from plot

It can be seen that the Cement consumption data has nature of trend and seasonality whereas the
GDP consumption data is predominantly trend data.
Further confirmation of the pattern of the time series data of respective variables shall be done by
correlograms

Correlograms

Cement consumption data

CEMENT CONSMP. CORR

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4
Autocorrelation

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Lag

CEMENT DIFF LAG1

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4
Autocorrelation

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Lag

CEMENT_CONS_DIFF_LAG3
1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4
Autocorrelation

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Lag
Inference

It can be observed from the correlograms that the pattern is not random as the autocorrelations are
not within the limits. It definitely has a trend pattern as the autocorrelations of the first few lags are
significantly different from 0 and then gradually tends to 0 towards higher lags

On differencing the data it can be observed that still after differencing till lag 3, all the
autocorrelations are not significantly different from zero. Hence it can be concluded that it has a
seasonal component too.

So the Cement consumption time series data has a trend and a seasonal pattern

GDP Data

GDP QUARTERLY CORR

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4
Autocorrelation

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Lag

GDP DIFF LAG1

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4
Autocorrelation

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Lag

Inference

It can be observed from the correlograms that the pattern is not random as the autocorrelations are
not within the limits. It definitely has a trend pattern as the autocorrelations of the first few lags are
significantly different from 0 and then gradually tends to 0 towards higher lags
 On differencing the data it can be observed that at only lag 1 difference, almost all the
autocorrelations are close to zero and within the limits. Hence the trend part is removed. Hence it
can be inferred that it has only trend pattern

So the GDP time series data has a trend pattern

DIFFERENT FORECASTING TECHNIQUES-Cement consumption time series

a) Nave Methods

Quarterly NAVE NAVE

NAVE NAVE
time cement APE Y(t+1)=Y(t)*(Y(t) APE APE Y(t+1)=Y(t- APE
Y(t+1)=Y(t) Y(t+1)=Y(t-3)
consumption /Y(t-1)) 3)+(Y(t)-Y(t-4))/4

1 17.2 - - - - - - - -
2 16.0 17.2 7.38 - - - - - -
3 15.9 16.0 0.50 14.89 6.40 - - - -
4 19.1 15.9 16.66 15.83 17.07 - - - -
5 18.4 19.1 4.03 22.91 24.83 17.17 6.43 - -
6 16.2 18.4 13.41 17.64 9.02 15.99 1.17 16.29 0.65
7 18.4 16.2 12.21 14.27 22.59 15.91 13.67 15.96 13.42
8 20.9 18.4 11.94 20.99 0.30 19.09 8.79 19.72 5.78
9 19.3 20.9 8.67 23.77 23.41 18.35 4.72 18.81 2.34
10 17.4 19.3 10.94 17.72 2.09 16.18 6.80 16.41 5.49
11 19.7 17.4 11.92 15.65 20.61 18.43 6.49 18.73 5.00
12 23.4 19.7 15.91 22.38 4.53 20.93 10.71 21.25 9.34
13 23.8 23.4 1.51 27.88 17.13 19.26 19.08 19.89 16.44
14 20.5 23.8 16.15 24.17 17.94 17.36 15.28 18.50 9.74
15 22.0 20.5 7.03 17.64 19.96 19.71 10.57 20.49 7.02
16 25.7 22.0 14.31 23.71 7.83 23.44 8.86 24.02 6.60
17 24.9 25.7 3.33 30.01 20.59 23.80 4.38 24.37 2.09
18 20.7 24.9 20.07 24.09 16.19 20.49 1.16 20.76 0.16
19 21.6 20.7 4.07 17.27 20.11 22.04 1.99 22.10 2.27
20 23.1 21.6 6.25 22.53 2.27 25.72 11.58 25.61 11.12
21 25.7 23.1 10.42 24.59 4.45 24.89 3.26 24.22 5.86
22 22.1 25.7 16.32 28.72 29.84 20.73 6.28 20.94 5.33
23 24.3 22.1 8.82 19.02 21.61 21.61 10.92 21.96 9.49
24 26.9 24.3 9.81 26.61 1.09 23.05 14.31 23.71 11.85
25 27.8 26.9 3.10 29.83 7.45 25.73 7.31 26.69 3.85
26 25.0 27.8 11.00 28.65 14.54 22.12 11.56 22.63 9.53
27 26.2 25.0 4.51 22.53 13.97 24.26 7.37 24.98 4.61
28 28.6 26.2 8.52 27.43 4.21 26.90 6.04 27.38 4.36
29 29.1 28.6 1.55 31.30 7.62 27.76 4.54 28.19 3.05
30 26.3 29.1 10.57 29.54 12.31 25.01 4.90 25.34 3.65
31 27.5 26.3 4.26 23.79 13.41 26.19 4.66 26.51 3.49
 32 31.0 27.5 11.42 28.69 7.47 28.63 7.67 28.95 6.64
33 30.2 31.0 2.65 35.01 15.88 29.08 3.74 29.68 1.77
34 28.4 30.2 6.34 29.43 3.59 26.30 7.43 26.58 6.43
35 31.2 28.4 8.85 26.72 14.29 27.47 11.87 28.00 10.18
36 33.3 31.2 6.37 34.20 2.73 31.01 6.85 31.94 4.07
37 34.0 33.3 2.20 35.55 4.45 30.21 11.25 30.78 9.58
38 30.4 34.0 12.05 34.81 14.57 28.41 6.48 29.37 3.33
39 33.3 30.4 8.85 27.11 18.65 31.17 6.48 31.66 5.00
40 37.8 33.3 11.85 36.57 3.29 33.29 11.95 33.83 10.53
41 37.1 37.8 1.83 42.89 15.52 34.04 8.32 35.17 5.28
42 33.7 37.1 10.05 36.46 8.07 30.38 9.96 31.15 7.67
43 37.4 33.7 9.86 30.66 18.09 33.33 10.95 34.17 8.71
44 41.1 37.4 8.84 41.52 1.13 37.81 7.92 38.84 5.42
45 40.7 41.1 0.91 45.04 10.70 37.13 8.75 37.94 6.75
46 38.0 40.7 6.97 40.32 6.00 33.74 11.30 34.63 8.96
47 39.9 38.0 4.71 35.56 10.92 37.43 6.24 38.51 3.54
48 45.4 39.9 12.03 41.89 7.68 41.06 9.52 41.68 8.15
49 44.0 45.4 3.04 51.59 17.14 40.69 7.61 41.77 5.15
50 40.8 44.0 7.91 42.74 4.73 38.04 6.79 38.88 4.74
51 43.8 40.8 6.78 37.82 13.62 39.92 8.82 40.61 7.24
52 49.4 43.8 11.29 46.97 4.83 45.38 8.04 46.35 6.09
53 39.2 49.4 25.92 55.63 41.95 44.04 12.38 45.03 14.91
54 36.6 39.2 7.16 31.12 14.90 40.81 11.59 39.60 8.28
55 38.6 36.6 5.26 34.13 11.59 43.78 13.42 42.72 10.67
56 43.9 38.6 12.05 40.74 7.17 49.35 12.44 48.06 9.49
57 42.0 43.9 4.43 49.90 18.74 39.19 6.76 37.83 10.00
58 38.5 42.0 9.25 40.25 4.62 36.57 4.94 37.28 3.09
59 39.5 38.5 2.51 35.21 10.77 38.60 2.18 39.08 0.98
60 31.2 39.5 26.47 40.48 29.73 43.89 40.67 44.11 41.36
61 42.3 31.2 26.21 24.67 41.65 42.03 0.59 38.86 8.09
62 40.7 42.3 3.88 57.29 40.77 38.47 5.48 38.53 5.33
63 44.1 40.7 7.60 39.18 11.06 39.46 10.42 40.02 9.15
64 50.3 44.1 12.50 47.68 5.29 31.20 38.02 32.35 35.74
MAPE 9.10 13.31 9.16 7.71

b) Simple Average method(basic)

time Quarterly cement F(t) APE
consumption

1 17.2 - -
2 16.0 17.17 7.379612
3 15.9 16.58 4.211188
4 19.1 16.35667 14.31814
5 18.4 17.04 7.138965
6 16.2 17.302 6.934487
7 18.4 17.115 7.135106
8 20.9 17.30286 17.32988
9 19.3 17.75625 7.807632
10 17.4 17.92333 3.245008
11 19.7 17.867 9.350583
12 23.4 18.03455 23.06081
13 23.8 18.485 22.33193
14 20.5 18.89385 7.789916
15 22.0 19.00786 13.75745
16 25.7 19.21 25.31104
17 24.9 19.61688 21.18572
18 20.7 19.92706 3.873329
19 21.6 19.97167 7.581367
20 23.1 20.05789 12.98093
21 25.7 20.2075 21.46327
22 22.1 20.47048 7.45716
23 24.3 20.54545 15.3114
24 26.9 20.70696 23.02247
25 27.8 20.965 24.47767
26 25.0 21.2368 15.08677
27 26.2 21.38192 18.35845
28 28.6 21.56 24.69438
29 29.1 21.8125 24.9914
30 26.3 22.0631 16.10987
31 27.5 22.20433 19.16879
32 31.0 22.37419 27.84846
33 30.2 22.64406 25.04448
34 28.4 22.87333 19.48844
35 31.2 23.03618 26.09504
36 33.3 23.26857 30.10342
37 34.0 23.54694 30.82566
38 30.4 23.83054 21.55846
39 33.3 24.00289 27.98411
40 37.8 24.24205 35.88455
41 37.1 24.58125 33.7968
42 33.7 24.88732 26.23795
43 37.4 25.0981 32.94658
44 41.1 25.38488 38.17612
45 40.7 25.74114 36.73842
46 38.0 26.07333 31.45811
47 39.9 26.33348 34.03437
48 45.4 26.62255 41.33417
49 44.0 27.01333 38.66182
50 40.8 27.36082 32.95561
 51 43.8 27.6298 36.88945
52 49.4 27.94647 43.37088
53 39.2 28.35808 27.63951
54 36.6 28.56245 21.89649
55 38.6 28.71074 25.61984
56 43.9 28.89055 34.17511
57 42.0 29.15839 30.62481
58 38.5 29.38421 23.61786
59 39.5 29.54086 25.1372
60 31.2 29.70898 4.7789
61 42.3 29.73383 29.674
62 40.7 29.93951 26.43855
63 44.1 30.11306 31.6389
64 50.3 30.33429 39.74119

MAPE 23.59715

c) Moving Average Method(K=4)

MOVING
AVERAGE, K=4
Quarterly
time cement
consumption

1 17.2
2 16.0
3 15.9
4 19.1 17.1875

5 18.4 17.35875

6 16.2 17.6975

7 18.4 18.2425

8 20.9 18.58625

9 19.3 18.8475

10 17.4 19.155

11 19.7 19.62875

12 23.4 20.51

13 23.8 21.46875

14 20.5 22.15125

15 22.0 22.7275

16 25.7 23.14875

17 24.9 23.315

18 20.7 23.29125

19 21.6 22.90375

20 23.1 22.675

21 25.7 22.95375
22 22.1 23.45875

23 24.3 24.27125

24 26.9 25.00625

25 27.8 25.62125

26 25.0 26.22375

27 26.2 26.68125

28 28.6 27.0625

29 29.1 27.38875

30 26.3 27.71

31 27.5 28.1675

32 31.0 28.60625

33 30.2 29.01125

34 28.4 29.7375

35 31.2 30.485

36 33.3 31.24875

37 34.0 31.97375

38 30.4 32.49

39 33.3 33.325

40 37.8 34.27625

41 37.1 35.0825

42 33.7 36.015

43 37.4 36.93375

44 41.1 37.785

45 40.7 38.7675

46 38.0 39.61625

47 39.9 40.4675

48 45.4 41.42625

49 44.0 42.19125

50 40.8 43.02

51 43.8 43.99875

52 49.4 43.88875

53 39.2 42.7525

54 36.6 41.575

55 38.6 40.245

56 43.9 39.9175

57 42.0 40.51

58 38.5 40.855

59 39.5 39.37625

60 31.2 37.82125

61 42.3 38.13125

62 40.7 38.98375

63 44.1 41.95

64 50.3 41.95

MAPE 7.89
d) Centred Moving Average Method(K=3)
Centred moving
average
Quarterly (K=3)
time cement
consumption

1 17.2
2 16.0
3 15.9 16.35666667
4 19.1 16.99666667
5 18.4 17.78333333
6 16.2 17.87333333
7 18.4 17.65333333
8 20.9 18.51333333
9 19.3 19.54
10 17.4 19.18333333
11 19.7 18.77666667
12 23.4 20.17
13 23.8 22.31666667
14 20.5 22.57666667
15 22.0 22.11
16 25.7 22.75
17 24.9 24.21666667
18 20.7 23.78
19 21.6 22.41
20 23.1 21.79666667
21 25.7 23.46333333
22 22.1 23.63333333
23 24.3 24.03666667
24 26.9 24.42666667
25 27.8 26.30666667
26 25.0 26.55666667
27 26.2 26.32
28 28.6 26.61
29 29.1 27.96666667
30 26.3 28.00333333
31 27.5 27.61666667
32 31.0 28.26
33 30.2 29.56333333
34 28.4 29.87666667
35 31.2 29.93
36 33.3 30.95666667
37 34.0 32.83333333
38 30.4 32.57
39 33.3 32.58333333
40 37.8 33.84
41 37.1 36.09
42 33.7 36.22666667
43 37.4 36.1
44 41.1 37.41
45 40.7 39.72666667
46 38.0 39.93
47 39.9 39.55
48 45.4 41.11333333
49 44.0 43.11333333
50 40.8 43.41
51 43.8 42.87666667
52 49.4 44.64666667
53 39.2 44.10666667
54 36.6 41.70333333
55 38.6 38.12
56 43.9 39.68666667
57 42.0 41.50666667
58 38.5 41.46333333
59 39.5 39.98666667
60 31.2 36.37666667
61 42.3 37.64666667
62 40.7 38.06
63 44.1 42.34333333
64 50.3 45.03
MAPE 6.31

f) Double moving average (k=3) g) Weighted moving average (K=3)

Weighted Moving Average

Double moving average

Quarterly
time cement
consumption FORECAST APE FORECAST
1 17.2 -
2 16.0 -
3 15.9 -
4 19.1 16.46316972
5 18.4 17.72902687
6 16.2 17.84999778 10.32137 17.27878244
7 18.4 19.25888889 4.497498 17.45755865
8 20.9 18.51777778 11.52519 18.39487811
9 19.3 17.42 9.553479 18.84463794
10 17.4 19.51333333 12.40399 18.89561042
11 19.7 21.48222222 8.991488 18.92731422
12 23.4 19.39222222 17.26868 19.51243938
13 23.8 17.99666667 24.38375 20.77073657
14 20.5 21.75666667 6.181877 22.00439351
15 22.0 26.10777778 18.45634 21.78511959
16 25.7 24.35444444 5.309314 22.81268152
17 24.9 21.66111111 12.97264 23.42390662
18 20.7 23.29222222 12.35997 23.63878277
19 21.6 26.59888889 23.08602 22.92072772
20 23.1 24.17555556 4.883104 23.04999738
21 25.7 20.29222222 21.134 22.03146527
22 22.1 20.06555556 9.287724 23.92122281
23 24.3 25.27666667 4.190712 22.52829194
24 26.9 24.97111111 7.170591 24.90536468
25 27.8 24.68777778 11.06708 24.80146724
26 25.0 25.21555556 0.821893 26.22341743
27 26.2 29.07333333 11.00929 25.83975459
28 28.6 28.14333333 1.699849 26.87926704
29 29.1 26.17111111 10.00306 27.0407346
30 26.3 26.83888889 2.049007 27.81122182
31 27.5 29.96888889 9.096792 27.32292497
32 31.0 28.95666667 6.62152 28.17682798
33 30.2 27.12555556 10.21001 28.94219889
34 28.4 28.86 1.583949 29.00707536
35 31.2 31.73 1.796599 29.55146134
36 33.3 31.16333333 6.388305 30.74853735
37 34.0 30.21 11.25147 31.14756488
38 30.4 32.36111111 6.521103 32.78000229
39 33.3 36.02 8.070807 31.65755865
40 37.8 33.47 11.47844 33.64170675
41 37.1 32.42555556 12.6702 34.54805472
42 33.7 35.52444444 5.28881 35.46171036
43 37.4 39.92777778 6.673197 35.52682601
44 41.1 37.90888889 7.674406 37.29829292
45 40.7 36.02222222 11.47156 37.84634732
46 38.0 39.07222222 2.713518 39.25878309
47 39.9 43.68888889 9.441104 39.36585124
48 45.4 41.74555556 8.008912 40.25804816
 49 44.0 39.17888889 11.03795 42.15756684
50 40.8 42.94444444 5.2302 42.23122281
51 43.8 46.82222222 6.948886 42.81633781
52 49.4 45.13888889 8.533153 43.89414613
53 39.2 42.36333333 8.097304 45.60073854
54 36.6 46.65111111 27.56662 41.20511828
55 38.6 44.56666667 15.45769 42.18072149
56 43.9 38.13888889 13.10347 38.85902392
57 42.0 31.74 24.48251 40.67634732
58 38.5 39.38666667 2.382809 40.52414908
59 39.5 44.97777778 13.98322 40.84950786
60 31.2 42.61888889 36.599 40.58829063
61 42.3 37.98888889 10.14927 34.3917015
62 40.7 30.57888889 24.86759 41.04195347
63 44.1 36.93333333 16.15588 36.52927589
64 50.3 39.45777778 21.61745 43.27292824
MAPE 10.91 7.84

h) Simple exponential smoothing

Simple exponential APE
smoothing

Quarterly cement
time
consumption

1 17.2 17.2 0

2 16.0 17.17 7.379612

3 15.9 16.42458891 3.234374

4 19.1 16.09952088 15.66516

5 18.4 17.98861943 1.969376

6 16.2 18.2169051 12.58903

7 18.4 16.93018336 8.137909

8 20.9 17.877624 14.58374

9 19.3 19.80582308 2.833972

10 17.4 19.46102429 12.10267

11 19.7 18.13379819 7.996965

12 23.4 19.12949167 18.38954

13 23.8 21.85245837 8.182948

14 20.5 23.08272881 12.65363

15 22.0 21.44489084 2.700132

16 25.7 21.82082386 15.16009

17 24.9 24.28395024 2.434913

18 20.7 24.66679449 18.99081

19 21.6 22.17990444 2.637226

20 23.1 21.81989335 5.336688

21 25.7 22.59695702 12.17661

22 22.1 24.57611378 11.10359

23 24.3 23.02457612 5.092432

24 26.9 23.80499871 11.50558

25 27.8 25.76012437 7.204163

26 25.0 27.02345443 8.050597

27 26.2 25.75154658 1.674125

28 28.6 26.0285195 9.086554

29 29.1 27.67188595 4.842208

30 26.3 28.56139767 8.59847

31 27.5 27.13286301 1.227292

32 31.0 27.3458339 11.81608

33 30.2 29.66050342 1.818923

34 28.4 30.00762278 5.623452

35 31.2 28.99839758 6.966963

36 33.3 30.37020819 8.770777

37 34.0 32.21465327 5.362358

38 30.4 33.36773267 9.834538

39 33.3 31.48036906 5.549448

40 37.8 32.6487889 13.65039

41 37.1 35.90914821 3.288047

42 33.7 36.68036555 8.714776

43 37.4 34.82292395 6.965205

44 41.1 36.46982513 11.17919

45 40.7 39.36945839 3.245371

46 38.0 40.20365022 5.687829

47 39.9 38.83686305 2.713269

48 45.4 39.52108533 12.91079

49 44.0 43.22218699 1.856978

50 40.8 43.73880299 7.17668

51 43.8 41.88866551 4.320088

52 49.4 43.08342966 12.69822

53 39.2 47.04204917 20.03585

54 36.6 42.08187585 15.07212

55 38.6 38.60000011 2.86E-07

56 43.9 38.60000004 12.05286

57 42.0 41.94171582 0.21005

58 38.5 41.99748532 9.169445

59 39.5 39.76915763 0.783471

60 31.2 39.57386142 26.8393

61 42.3 34.28405706 18.91188

62 40.7 39.33512869 3.353492

63 44.1 40.19732378 8.746144

 64 50.3 42.63107596 15.31371
MAPE 8.346533

I) Holts method

Holt's method/Additive Holt's method/Multiplicative

Lt Tt forecast APE Lt Tt forecast APE

Quarterly
time cement
consumption

1 17.2 17.17 0.00 17.17 0.00 17.12 -4.24 13.01 24.22

2 16.0 16.72 -0.04 17.17 7.38 15.95 0.07 12.88 19.43

3 15.9 16.38 -0.07 16.68 4.81 15.91 0.02 16.03 0.73

4 19.1 17.38 0.03 16.31 14.54 19.05 0.11 15.93 16.55

5 18.4 17.77 0.06 17.41 5.13 18.36 0.08 19.16 4.41

6 16.2 17.20 0.00 17.83 10.21 16.21 0.02 18.44 13.99

7 18.4 17.67 0.05 17.20 6.66 18.40 0.08 16.23 11.95

8 20.9 18.95 0.16 17.72 15.33 20.90 0.15 18.49 11.68

9 19.3 19.17 0.16 19.11 0.77 19.28 0.10 21.05 9.30

10 17.4 18.58 0.10 19.33 11.37 17.38 0.04 19.38 11.65

11 19.7 19.07 0.13 18.67 5.27 19.68 0.11 17.43 11.57

12 23.4 20.83 0.28 19.20 18.08 23.40 0.21 19.79 15.57

13 23.8 22.14 0.37 21.11 11.31 23.80 0.22 23.61 0.82

14 20.5 21.74 0.30 22.52 9.89 20.53 0.12 24.01 17.19

15 22.0 22.04 0.30 22.04 0.00 22.02 0.16 20.65 6.31

16 25.7 23.64 0.42 22.34 13.13 25.68 0.25 22.18 13.77

17 24.9 24.38 0.45 24.06 3.33 24.90 0.23 25.93 4.19

18 20.7 23.25 0.31 24.83 19.77 20.78 0.10 25.13 21.22

19 21.6 22.81 0.24 23.56 9.03 21.60 0.12 20.89 3.35

20 23.1 23.05 0.24 23.05 0.00 23.03 0.16 21.72 5.75

21 25.7 24.23 0.32 23.29 9.49 25.70 0.23 23.19 9.86

22 22.1 23.62 0.24 24.55 10.98 22.17 0.12 25.93 17.22

23 24.3 24.01 0.25 23.86 1.67 24.24 0.18 22.29 8.12

24 26.9 25.28 0.34 24.26 9.80 26.87 0.25 24.42 9.24

25 27.8 26.44 0.42 25.62 7.71 27.75 0.27 27.12 2.31

26 25.0 26.15 0.35 26.86 7.40 25.05 0.18 28.02 12.03

27 26.2 26.38 0.34 26.51 1.20 26.18 0.21 25.23 3.67

28 28.6 27.46 0.41 26.73 6.64 28.60 0.27 26.39 7.83

29 29.1 28.33 0.45 27.87 4.17 29.08 0.28 28.88 0.70

30 26.3 27.83 0.37 28.79 9.45 26.34 0.19 29.36 11.62

31 27.5 27.92 0.34 28.20 2.65 27.46 0.22 26.53 3.42

32 31.0 29.32 0.44 28.26 8.87 30.97 0.31 27.68 10.75

33 30.2 29.93 0.45 29.75 1.52 30.22 0.28 31.28 3.55

 34 28.4 29.62 0.38 30.38 6.93 28.44 0.22 30.51 7.37

35 31.2 30.45 0.42 30.01 3.73 31.14 0.29 28.66 8.06

36 33.3 31.80 0.51 30.88 7.25 33.27 0.35 31.43 5.58

37 34.0 32.98 0.57 32.31 5.07 34.03 0.36 33.61 1.25

38 30.4 32.33 0.46 33.54 10.42 30.43 0.25 34.39 13.21

39 33.3 33.00 0.48 32.79 1.63 33.30 0.32 30.67 7.97

40 37.8 35.14 0.63 33.47 11.47 37.76 0.44 33.62 11.09

41 37.1 36.29 0.68 35.77 3.67 37.14 0.41 38.20 2.87

42 33.7 35.73 0.56 36.97 9.56 33.79 0.30 37.55 11.29

43 37.4 36.73 0.60 36.29 3.04 37.39 0.39 34.09 8.93

44 41.1 38.76 0.73 37.33 9.08 41.02 0.49 37.78 7.98

45 40.7 39.95 0.77 39.50 2.93 40.70 0.46 41.51 2.01

46 38.0 39.70 0.68 40.73 7.07 38.08 0.38 41.16 8.21

47 39.9 40.20 0.66 40.38 1.15 39.90 0.42 38.45 3.67

48 45.4 42.60 0.82 40.87 9.95 45.32 0.56 40.32 11.15

49 44.0 43.66 0.84 43.42 1.40 44.06 0.51 45.88 4.17

50 40.8 43.08 0.72 44.50 9.05 40.86 0.40 44.57 9.21

51 43.8 43.79 0.71 43.80 0.05 43.75 0.47 41.26 5.76

52 49.4 46.37 0.88 44.51 9.81 49.29 0.62 44.22 10.39

53 39.2 44.15 0.60 47.25 20.57 39.32 0.32 49.90 27.34

54 36.6 41.61 0.32 44.76 22.39 36.61 0.23 39.64 8.38

55 38.6 40.65 0.20 41.93 8.62 38.58 0.28 36.84 4.57

56 43.9 42.02 0.31 40.85 6.92 43.83 0.42 38.86 11.46

57 42.0 42.21 0.30 42.32 0.70 42.06 0.36 44.25 5.28

58 38.5 40.96 0.16 42.51 10.50 38.52 0.25 42.42 10.26

59 39.5 40.48 0.10 41.11 4.19 39.45 0.27 38.77 1.76

60 31.2 36.97 -0.23 40.58 30.05 31.30 0.03 39.72 27.30

61 42.3 38.87 -0.04 36.75 13.09 42.15 0.34 31.33 25.89

62 40.7 39.55 0.03 38.84 4.58 40.72 0.29 42.48 4.38

63 44.1 41.30 0.18 39.58 10.15 44.01 0.37 41.01 6.91

64 50.3 44.88 0.49 41.48 17.60 50.27 0.54 44.38 11.83

MAPE 8.098406 9.290117

HOLTS WINTER METHOD MULTIPLICATIVE HOLTS WINTER METHOD ADDITIVE

Quarterly
time cement
consumption
Lt Tt St Ft APE Lt Tt St Ft APE
1 17.2
1.0076 0.13
2 16.0
0.9384 -1.05
3 15.9
0.9337 -1.13
4 19.1
17.04 0.358 1.1203 17.04 0.358 2.05
5 18.4
17.782 0.370 1.017 17.531 4.464 18.200 0.358 0.774 18.688 1.842
6 16.2
17.723 0.357 0.929 17.034 5.277 17.263 0.358 -2.091 16.571 2.415
7 18.4
18.863 0.382 0.951 16.880 8.408 19.512 0.358 0.390 18.741 1.685
8 20.9
18.979 0.373 1.114 21.560 3.010 18.904 0.358 1.274 21.312 1.827
9 19.3
19.155 0.367 1.013 19.685 2.206 18.505 0.358 0.166 19.637 1.958
10 17.4
19.129 0.354 0.921 18.133 4.451 19.436 0.358 -1.630 17.704 1.980
11 19.7
20.069 0.373 0.963 18.530 5.985 19.332 0.358 0.018 20.080 1.876
12 23.4
20.728 0.382 1.120 22.766 2.876 22.105 0.358 3.214 23.737 1.269
13 23.8
22.239 0.418 1.036 21.379 10.172 23.606 0.358 1.083 24.129 1.384
14 20.5
22.466 0.412 0.917 20.863 1.820 22.166 0.358 -3.075 20.893 1.968
15 22.0
22.878 0.412 0.963 22.040 0.000 22.034 0.358 -0.375 22.410 1.681
16 25.7
23.133 0.407 1.117 26.093 1.451 22.503 0.358 3.303 26.075 1.382
17 24.9
23.769 0.414 1.040 24.387 2.019 23.784 0.358 1.824 25.225 1.346
18 20.7
23.433 0.390 0.905 22.187 7.030 23.813 0.358 -3.339 21.096 1.767
19 21.6
23.166 0.369 0.952 22.951 6.205 22.039 0.358 -2.088 22.022 1.905
20 23.1
22.166 0.326 1.089 26.292 14.065 19.812 0.358 1.227 23.473 1.836
21 25.7
23.550 0.360 1.061 23.399 9.061 23.814 0.358 4.751 25.996 1.036
22 22.1
24.158 0.367 0.909 21.643 2.155 25.427 0.358 -2.331 22.447 1.476
23 24.3
24.978 0.382 0.960 23.347 3.765 26.334 0.358 -1.647 24.604 1.419
24 26.9
25.048 0.372 1.083 27.621 2.680 25.698 0.358 0.428 27.283 1.424
25 27.8
25.767 0.383 1.068 26.980 2.811 23.083 0.358 2.363 28.193 1.559
26 25.0
26.790 0.403 0.919 23.777 4.928 27.245 0.358 0.724 25.272 1.050
27 26.2
27.241 0.405 0.960 26.092 0.374 27.832 0.358 -1.464 26.542 1.346
28 28.6
27.070 0.387 1.074 29.952 4.616 28.201 0.358 0.438 28.988 1.250
29 29.1
27.354 0.383 1.066 29.313 0.802 26.762 0.358 0.919 29.483 1.387
30 26.3
28.155 0.397 0.925 25.486 3.094 25.613 0.358 -0.486 26.696 1.506
31 27.5
28.578 0.397 0.961 27.417 0.194 28.861 0.358 0.857 27.755 1.039
32 31.0
28.932 0.396 1.073 31.111 0.324 30.539 0.358 1.498 31.335 1.048
33 30.2
28.863 0.381 1.059 31.260 3.474 29.330 0.358 -0.339 30.608 1.316
34 28.4
29.941 0.403 0.934 27.045 4.806 28.915 0.358 -1.107 28.788 1.329
35 31.2
31.338 0.435 0.974 29.149 6.483 30.287 0.358 1.672 31.503 1.067
36 33.3
31.420 0.424 1.068 34.091 2.407 31.764 0.358 2.396 33.620 0.991
37 34.0
31.991 0.429 1.061 33.711 0.968 34.324 0.358 1.429 34.343 0.889
38 30.4
32.466 0.430 0.935 30.289 0.300 31.565 0.358 -3.611 30.816 1.437
39 33.3
33.519 0.450 0.982 32.045 3.857 31.665 0.358 1.464 33.695 1.094
40 37.8
34.648 0.472 1.077 36.274 4.063 35.331 0.358 5.053 38.085 0.727
41 37.1
35.065 0.470 1.060 37.252 0.328 35.701 0.358 1.439 37.488 0.964
42 33.7
35.798 0.478 0.938 33.220 1.541 37.319 0.358 -2.598 34.066 0.968
43 37.4
37.144 0.506 0.992 35.625 4.822 36.008 0.358 0.123 37.830 1.069
44 41.1
37.873 0.513 1.080 40.550 1.242 36.016 0.358 4.772 41.427 0.894
45 40.7
38.386 0.513 1.060 40.690 0.000 39.181 0.358 3.693 40.978 0.707
46 38.0
39.685 0.538 0.946 36.481 4.100 40.611 0.358 -1.737 38.371 0.871
47 39.9
40.229 0.538 0.992 39.907 0.032 39.825 0.358 -0.796 40.307 0.969
48 45.4
41.362 0.557 1.087 44.020 2.998 40.598 0.358 5.105 45.728 0.766
49 44.0
41.743 0.552 1.058 44.435 0.897 40.362 0.358 3.216 44.413 0.847
50 40.8
42.695 0.564 0.950 40.009 1.963 42.502 0.358 -0.305 41.123 0.768
51 43.8
43.667 0.577 0.996 42.923 1.958 44.534 0.358 0.549 44.096 0.722
52 49.4
44.799 0.595 1.092 48.074 2.585 44.261 0.358 4.598 49.724 0.758
53 39.2
41.449 0.469 1.019 48.032 22.561 36.186 0.358 -3.558 39.760 1.455
54 36.6
40.305 0.418 0.934 39.813 8.869 36.867 0.358 -0.046 36.920 0.957
55 38.6
39.789 0.388 0.986 40.570 5.104 38.031 0.358 1.196 38.938 0.875
56 43.9
40.177 0.388 1.092 43.890 0.000 39.270 0.358 5.305 44.226 0.766
57 42.0
40.895 0.399 1.022 41.319 1.692 45.442 0.358 1.112 42.242 0.504
58 38.5
41.242 0.397 0.934 38.572 0.266 38.694 0.358 -5.753 39.007 1.395
59 39.5
40.867 0.372 0.979 41.074 4.089 38.283 0.358 0.578 39.837 0.957
60 31.2
35.252 0.181 1.024 45.050 44.389 26.207 0.358 -4.682 31.871 2.150
61 42.3
38.234 0.271 1.057 36.218 14.338 40.810 0.358 12.554 42.280 0.000
62 40.7
40.908 0.347 0.959 35.948 11.676 46.324 0.358 -1.612 40.929 0.561
63 44.1
43.031 0.404 0.997 40.371 8.351 43.551 0.358 -1.937 44.487 0.992
64 50.3
46.133 0.490 1.052 44.488 11.625 54.750 0.358 4.026 50.426 0.170

MAPE

4.934 1.227

TIME SERIES DECOMPOSITION(MULTIPLICATIVE)

Tt St TS CR C R Ft APE
Quarterly
time cement
consumption

1 17.2 15.71 1.04 16.35 1.05

2 16.0 16.19 0.92 14.95 1.07 1.03 1.02 15.70 1.80

3 15.9 16.66 0.98 16.25 0.98 1.03 1.04 17.38 9.22

4 19.1 17.14 1.06 18.17 1.05 1.01 0.97 17.78 6.84

5 18.4 17.61 1.04 18.33 1.00 1.01 1.04 19.26 4.95

6 16.2 18.08 0.92 16.71 0.97 1.00 1.01 16.73 3.39

7 18.4 18.56 0.98 18.10 1.02 1.01 0.96 17.53 4.88

8 20.9 19.03 1.06 20.18 1.04 1.00 1.02 20.54 1.85

9 19.3 19.51 1.04 20.30 0.95 0.98 1.06 21.06 9.33

10 17.4 19.98 0.92 18.46 0.94 0.96 0.99 17.51 0.88

11 19.7 20.45 0.98 19.95 0.99 0.99 0.95 18.76 4.80

12 23.4 20.93 1.06 22.19 1.06 1.04 0.95 21.92 6.49

13 23.8 21.40 1.04 22.27 1.07 1.05 1.01 23.53 1.13

14 20.5 21.88 0.92 20.21 1.01 1.03 1.04 21.60 5.40

15 22.0 22.35 0.98 21.80 1.01 1.03 0.99 22.10 0.28

16 25.7 22.82 1.06 24.20 1.06 1.03 0.98 24.46 4.89

17 24.9 23.30 1.04 24.25 1.03 1.01 1.05 25.77 3.54

18 20.7 23.77 0.92 21.96 0.94 0.96 1.07 22.54 8.75

19 21.6 24.25 0.98 23.65 0.91 0.91 1.03 22.32 3.30

20 23.1 24.72 1.06 26.21 0.88 0.92 0.99 23.95 3.89

21 25.7 25.19 1.04 26.22 0.98 0.93 0.94 23.06 10.37

22 22.1 25.67 0.92 23.71 0.93 0.96 1.03 23.27 5.20

23 24.3 26.14 0.98 25.50 0.95 0.95 0.99 23.79 1.95

24 26.9 26.62 1.06 28.22 0.95 0.96 0.99 26.85 0.20

25 27.8 27.09 1.04 28.19 0.98 0.97 0.98 26.88 3.18

26 25.0 27.56 0.92 25.46 0.98 0.97 1.01 25.07 0.26

27 26.2 28.04 0.98 27.35 0.96 0.96 1.02 26.86 2.56

28 28.6 28.51 1.06 30.23 0.95 0.96 1.00 28.95 1.11

29 29.1 28.99 1.04 30.16 0.96 0.96 0.99 28.57 1.75

30 26.3 29.46 0.92 27.22 0.97 0.96 1.01 26.24 0.24

31 27.5 29.93 0.98 29.20 0.94 0.96 1.01 28.21 2.71

32 31.0 30.41 1.06 32.24 0.96 0.95 0.99 30.33 2.20

33 30.2 30.88 1.04 32.14 0.94 0.96 1.00 30.92 2.33

34 28.4 31.36 0.92 28.97 0.98 0.97 0.96 27.23 4.15

35 31.2 31.83 0.98 31.05 1.00 0.99 1.00 30.45 2.31

36 33.3 32.30 1.06 34.25 0.97 0.99 1.01 34.38 3.28

37 34.0 32.78 1.04 34.11 1.00 0.99 0.99 33.16 2.59

38 30.4 33.25 0.92 30.72 0.99 1.00 1.00 30.65 0.90

39 33.3 33.73 0.98 32.90 1.01 1.02 0.97 32.53 2.39

40 37.8 34.20 1.06 36.26 1.04 1.03 0.99 36.73 2.84

41 37.1 34.67 1.04 36.08 1.03 1.04 1.01 37.63 1.35

42 33.7 35.15 0.92 32.47 1.04 1.05 0.98 33.41 0.97

43 37.4 35.62 0.98 34.75 1.08 1.06 0.98 36.10 3.54

44 41.1 36.10 1.06 38.27 1.07 1.07 1.00 41.22 0.40

45 40.7 36.57 1.04 38.06 1.07 1.08 0.99 40.84 0.36

46 38.0 37.04 0.92 34.22 1.11 1.09 0.98 36.59 3.81

47 39.9 37.52 0.98 36.59 1.09 1.11 1.00 40.68 1.90

48 45.4 37.99 1.06 40.28 1.13 1.11 0.99 43.94 3.18

49 44.0 38.47 1.04 40.03 1.10 1.12 1.01 45.10 2.41

50 40.8 38.94 0.92 35.97 1.13 1.12 0.98 39.58 3.02

51 43.8 39.41 0.98 38.44 1.14 1.15 0.99 43.61 0.38

52 49.4 39.89 1.06 42.29 1.17 1.08 1.05 48.16 2.42

53 39.2 40.36 1.04 42.00 0.93 1.02 1.14 49.02 25.08

54 36.6 40.84 0.92 37.73 0.97 0.95 0.98 35.20 3.75

55 38.6 41.31 0.98 40.29 0.96 0.97 1.00 39.06 1.19

56 43.9 41.78 1.06 44.30 0.99 0.97 0.99 42.43 3.32

57 42.0 42.26 1.04 43.98 0.96 0.97 1.02 43.57 3.67

58 38.5 42.73 0.92 39.48 0.97 0.96 1.00 37.73 1.93

59 39.5 43.21 0.98 42.14 0.94 0.86 1.13 41.07 4.08

60 31.2 43.68 1.06 46.31 0.67 0.84 1.11 43.36 38.97

61 42.3 44.15 1.04 45.95 0.92 0.86 0.78 30.96 26.77

62 40.7 44.63 0.92 41.23 0.99 0.97 0.95 37.94 6.79

63 44.1 45.10 0.98 43.99 1.00 1.01 0.98 43.43 1.41

45.58 1.06 48.32 1.04
64 50.3

MAPE 4.497914

SUMMARY TABLE

Method MAPE Parameters Tool used

Naive a)9.1% Excel
b)13.31%
c)9.16%
d)7.71%
Simple average basic 23% Excel
Moving average(K=4) 7.89 Minitab
Centred moving average 6.31 minitab
Double moving average(k=3) 10.91 mintitab
Weighted moving average 7.84 W1=.44 Excel
W2=0.03
W3=.55
Simple exponential smoothing 8.34 Alpha=0.63 Excel
Holt's method/Additive 8.08 alpha 0.384096 Excel
beta 0.090773
Holt's method/Multiplicative 9.29 alpha 0.98 Excel
beta 0.02
HOLTS WINTER METHOD 4.93 alpha 0.472188 Excel
MULTIPLICATIVE beta 0.031892
gamma 0.20294
HOLTS WINTER METHOD ADDITIVE 1.22 Alpha=0.97 Excel
Beta=0.01
Gamma=0.78
TIME SERIES 4.49 Excel
DECOMPOSITION(MULTIPLICATIVE)

Best method as per min MAPE: Holt Winter Additive

 DIFFERENT FORECASTING TECHNIQUES-GDP time series
a) Nave Methods

NAVE
NAVE
Quarterly NAVE Y(t+1)=Y(t) NAVE
time APE APE APE Y(t+1)=Y(t- APE
GDP Y(t+1)=Y(t) *(Y(t)/Y(t- Y(t+1)=Y(t-3)
3)+(Y(t)-Y(t-4))/4
1))

390 - - - - - - - -
1
392 389.9 0.41 - - - - - -
2
396 391.5 1.18 393.11 0.77 - - - -
3
402 396.2 1.57 400.87 0.40 - - - -
4
409 402.5 1.60 408.94 0.03 389.9 4.7 - -
5
414 409.1 1.29 415.73 0.32 391.5 5.5 396.3 4.4
6
422 414.4 1.78 419.85 0.49 396.2 6.1 401.9 4.7
7
427 421.9 1.29 429.56 0.49 402.5 5.8 408.9 4.3
8
434 427.4 1.59 433.05 0.31 409.1 5.8 415.3 4.4
9
446 434.4 2.52 441.41 0.94 414.4 7.0 420.7 5.6
10
451 445.6 1.23 457.07 1.31 421.9 6.5 429.7 4.8
11
459 451.1 1.62 456.79 0.39 427.4 6.8 434.8 5.2
12
468 458.6 2.06 466.16 0.44 434.4 7.2 442.2 5.6
13
469 468.2 0.13 478.05 1.97 445.6 5.0 454.0 3.2
14
475 468.8 1.31 469.44 1.18 451.1 5.0 457.0 3.8
15
475 475.1 0.04 481.38 1.29 458.6 3.5 464.6 2.2
16
478 475.3 0.54 475.45 0.50 468.2 2.0 472.4 1.1
17
488 477.8 2.04 480.40 1.51 468.8 3.9 471.2 3.4
18
494 487.8 1.22 497.91 0.83 475.1 3.8 479.8 2.8
19
505 493.8 2.25 499.93 1.04 475.3 5.9 479.9 5.0
20
509 505.2 0.80 516.79 1.48 477.8 6.2 485.3 4.7
21
512 509.3 0.62 513.38 0.19 487.8 4.8 495.6 3.3
22
515 512.4 0.59 515.59 0.03 493.8 4.2 500.0 3.0
23
516 515.4 0.08 518.48 0.51 505.2 2.1 510.6 1.0
24
527 515.9 2.20 516.26 2.12 509.3 3.5 511.9 2.9
25
541 527.5 2.47 539.33 0.27 512.4 5.2 517.0 4.4
26
 555 540.8 2.56 554.49 0.10 515.4 7.1 522.5 5.9
27
573 555.0 3.18 569.62 0.63 515.9 10.0 525.7 8.3
28
575 573.2 0.36 592.03 2.91 527.5 8.3 541.8 5.8
29
588 575.3 2.16 577.37 1.81 540.8 8.0 552.8 6.0
30
602 588.0 2.32 601.00 0.17 555.0 7.8 566.8 5.8
31
615 602.0 2.10 616.33 0.23 573.2 6.8 585.0 4.9
32
626 614.9 1.85 628.04 0.26 575.3 8.2 585.7 6.5
33
645 626.4 2.87 638.22 1.04 588.0 8.8 600.8 6.8
34
654 644.9 1.38 663.95 1.53 602.0 7.9 616.2 5.8
35
671 654.0 2.49 663.11 1.12 614.9 8.3 627.9 6.4
36
688 670.6 2.47 687.73 0.02 626.4 8.9 640.4 6.9
37
697 687.6 1.33 704.99 1.16 644.9 7.5 660.2 5.3
38
720 696.9 3.27 706.29 1.96 654.0 9.2 666.9 7.4
39
733 720.4 1.71 744.79 1.61 670.6 8.5 687.3 6.2
40
753 733.0 2.69 745.72 0.99 687.6 8.7 703.2 6.6
41
773 753.2 2.52 773.99 0.18 696.9 9.8 713.3 7.7
42
786 772.6 1.75 792.57 0.79 720.4 8.4 739.4 6.0
43
812 786.4 3.16 800.38 1.43 733.0 9.7 749.5 7.7
44
817 812.0 0.63 838.49 2.61 753.2 7.8 773.0 5.4
45
826 817.1 1.02 822.29 0.40 772.6 6.4 788.6 4.5
46
832 825.6 0.80 834.06 0.22 786.4 5.5 799.6 3.9
47
833 832.2 0.12 838.98 0.69 812.0 2.5 823.5 1.2
48
822 833.2 1.41 834.24 1.53 817.1 0.6 822.4 0.1
49
866 821.7 5.08 810.24 6.40 825.6 4.6 826.7 4.5
50
888 865.6 2.54 911.93 2.67 832.2 6.3 842.3 5.2
51
908 888.2 2.16 911.39 0.39 833.2 8.2 847.2 6.7
52
932 907.8 2.61 927.90 0.46 821.7 11.9 840.3 9.9
53
954 932.2 2.29 957.15 0.33 865.6 9.3 893.2 6.4
54
982 954.0 2.86 976.30 0.58 888.2 9.6 910.3 7.3
55
1005 982.0 2.24 1010.90 0.64 907.8 9.6 931.3 7.3
56
1022 1004.5 1.72 1027.52 0.53 932.2 8.8 956.3 6.4
57
1036 1022.1 1.34 1039.98 0.38 954.0 7.9 976.5 5.7
58
1035 1036.0 0.10 1050.09 1.46 982.0 5.1 1002.5 3.1
59
1052 1035.0 1.61 1033.93 1.71 1004.5 4.5 1017.7 3.2
60
 1066 1051.9 1.35 1069.19 0.27 1022.1 4.1 1033.9 3.0
61
1079 1066.3 1.16 1080.95 0.20 1036.0 4.0 1047.1 2.9
62
1099 1078.8 1.82 1091.44 0.67 1035.0 5.8 1045.7 4.8
63
1111 1098.8 1.14 1119.11 0.69 1051.9 5.4 1067.9 3.9
64
1.69 0.96 6.50 4.94
MAPE

b) Simple Average method(basic)

time F(t) APE

Quarterly GDP

1 390 - -
2 392 389.9025 0.408326
3 396 390.7018 1.377767
4 402 392.5212 2.47885
5 409 395.0155 3.433177
6 414 397.8243 4.004088
7 422 400.5899 5.05524
8 427 403.6369 5.570095
9 434 406.613 6.39031
10 446 409.6972 8.05252
11 451 413.2852 8.392364
12 459 416.7272 9.128796
13 468 420.2159 10.25276
14 469 423.9086 9.581626
15 475 427.1173 10.09299
16 475 430.3138 9.456339
17 478 433.1227 9.354802
18 488 435.7521 10.66273
19 494 438.6414 11.17183
20 505 441.545 12.59417
21 509 444.7261 12.67182
22 512 447.799 12.61022
23 515 450.7362 12.55296
24 516 453.5493 12.07752
25 527 456.1453 13.52009
26 541 458.9978 15.12658
27 555 462.1441 16.73467
28 573 465.5842 18.77892
29 575 469.4287 18.402
30 588 473.0792 19.54549
31 602 476.9102 20.77942
32 615 480.9455 21.78296
33 626 485.1311 22.55815
 34 645 489.4134 24.11323
35 654 493.9872 24.46156
36 671 498.5577 25.65837
37 688 503.3375 26.79765
38 697 508.3175 27.05811
39 720 513.2797 28.75416
40 733 518.5914 29.24796
41 753 523.9509 30.43671
42 773 529.5423 31.46262
43 786 535.3302 31.92524
44 812 541.1687 33.3554
45 817 547.3244 33.0193
46 826 553.3203 32.97589
47 832 559.2384 32.80332
48 833 565.047 32.18675
49 822 570.6343 30.55085
50 866 575.7572 33.48587
51 888 581.5544 34.52505
52 908 587.5673 35.27843
53 932 593.7263 36.30697
54 954 600.112 37.09394
55 982 606.6652 38.22325
56 1005 613.4899 38.92686
57 1022 620.4726 39.29409
58 1036 627.5186 39.42849
59 1035 634.5613 38.68738
60 1052 641.3477 39.03154
61 1066 648.1908 39.21379
62 1079 655.0458 39.28135
63 1099 661.8809 39.76217
64 1111 668.8158 39.82306
MAPE 23.59715

c) Moving Average Method(K=3)

MOVING
AVERAGE, K=3

time Quarterly GDP

1 390 -
2 392 -
3 396
4 402 392.5211879
5 409 396.7198621
6 414 402.5725783
7 422 408.6585654
8 427 415.1320209
9 434 421.2609469
10 446 427.9118561
11 451 435.7980314
12 459 443.6984001
13 468 451.7718695
14 469 459.3198888
15 475 465.2142314
16 475 470.7057452
17 478 473.0504636
18 488 476.0477462
19 494 480.2794477
20 505 486.4638846
21 509 495.57873
22 512 502.7446258
23 515 508.9469113
24 516 512.3710794
25 527 514.5687483
26 541 519.5828352
27 555 528.0374008
28 573 541.0955533
29 575 556.353103
30 588 567.8503
31 602 578.8444611
32 615 588.4352058
33 626 601.6323612
34 645 614.4447994
35 654 628.7524203
36 671 641.7754074
37 688 656.5037255
38 697 670.7276463
39 720 685.0361023
40 733 701.6374589
41 753 716.7616853
42 773 735.5350488
43 786 752.9344181
44 812 770.7395542
45 817 790.3467547
46 826 805.1816792
47 832 818.2378214
48 833 824.9775688
49 822 830.3449669
 50 866 829.0461818
51 888 840.1712968
52 908 858.4943781
53 932 887.2212765
54 954 909.4053022
55 982 931.3293792
56 1005 956.0593327
57 1022 980.1754121
58 1036 1002.880258
59 1035 1020.869589
60 1052 1031.017439
61 1066 1040.96339
62 1079 1051.079671
63 1099 1065.70003
64 1111 1081.315338
MAPE 3.32

d) Centred Moving Average Method(K=3)

time Quarterly GDP

CENTERED
MOVING
AVERAGE, K=3
1 390
2 392
3 396 392.5211879
4 402 396.7198621
5 409 402.5725783
6 414 408.6585654
7 422 415.1320209
8 427 421.2609469
9 434 427.9118561
10 446 435.7980314
11 451 443.6984001
12 459 451.7718695
13 468 459.3198888
14 469 465.2142314
15 475 470.7057452
16 475 473.0504636
17 478 476.0477462
18 488 480.2794477
19 494 486.4638846
20 505 495.57873
21 509 502.7446258
22 512 508.9469113
23 515 512.3710794
24 516 514.5687483
25 527 519.5828352
26 541 528.0374008
27 555 541.0955533
28 573 556.353103
29 575 567.8503
30 588 578.8444611
31 602 588.4352058
32 615 601.6323612
33 626 614.4447994
34 645 628.7524203
35 654 641.7754074
36 671 656.5037255
37 688 670.7276463
38 697 685.0361023
39 720 701.6374589
40 733 716.7616853
41 753 735.5350488
42 773 752.9344181
43 786 770.7395542
44 812 790.3467547
45 817 805.1816792
46 826 818.2378214
47 832 824.9775688
48 833 830.3449669
49 822 829.0461818
50 866 840.1712968
51 888 858.4943781
52 908 887.2212765
53 932 909.4053022
54 954 931.3293792
55 982 956.0593327
56 1005 980.1754121
57 1022 1002.880258
58 1036 1020.869589
59 1035 1031.017439
60 1052 1040.96339
61 1066 1051.079671
62 1079 1065.70003
63 1099 1081.315338
64 1111 1096.338804
MAPE 1.679
 f) Double moving average (k=3) g) Weighted moving average (K=3)

time Quarterly GDP

FORECAST APE Weighted Moving Average
1 390 -
2 392 -
3 396 -
4 402 396.1599671
5 409 402.4985266
6 414 413.175316 0.299844 409.0592526
7 422 420.6750257 0.294811 414.4179288
8 427 427.8206197 0.087635 421.9188933
9 434 433.7484853 0.143234 427.4460308
10 446 440.8656857 1.057444 434.3706565
11 451 450.7468713 0.088721 445.5774195
12 459 459.4896753 0.195951 451.1471372
13 468 467.8034079 0.089288 458.591065
14 469 474.7662273 1.266144 468.2214773
15 475 478.1053677 0.639862 468.8301652
16 475 481.9573253 1.410125 475.0656064
17 478 479.837764 0.421863 475.2556327
18 488 481.6072686 1.261569 477.8220131
19 494 487.9199047 1.192573 487.760711
20 505 497.5309349 1.511503 493.8089438
21 509 511.8548152 0.509844 505.1665495
22 512 518.3757171 1.163103 509.2583986
23 515 521.9938893 1.2717 512.4158006
24 516 521.0714939 1.011937 515.4390538
25 527 519.7817521 1.455339 515.8514051
26 541 527.7333971 2.416657 527.4580617
27 555 542.6528794 2.229262 540.8027507
28 573 564.1428003 1.585384 555.025863
29 575 585.4019376 1.756944 573.2307113
30 588 593.3515957 0.908704 575.2943419
31 602 601.1681407 0.13867 588.0083468
32 615 608.552306 1.030028 602.0029455
33 626 625.6223982 0.131417 614.8858085
34 645 640.3261539 0.713206 626.4456617
35 654 656.3708737 0.369461 644.9258087
36 671 668.6778041 0.29119 653.9547701
37 688 684.8234745 0.403447 670.6306167
38 697 699.5117527 0.377629 687.5975713
39 720 713.5966574 0.949152 696.8801385
40 733 733.3115719 0.046568 720.4346872
41 753 747.9948915 0.691095 732.9702508
42 773 770.6490178 0.256755 753.2002297
43 786 788.6491529 0.287836 772.6327956
44 812 806.0793151 0.731816 786.3856594
45 817 828.3597794 1.373357 812.0218319
46 826 838.0330455 1.511587 817.1375694
47 832 845.5359606 1.597481 825.5540864
48 833 842.6679936 1.131516 832.2410745
49 822 841.9946626 2.475111 833.2397637
50 866 830.8927337 4.011439 821.657731
51 888 854.1389266 3.835817 865.6164196
52 908 890.3418964 1.927273 888.2090082
53 932 937.7391954 0.597607 907.8384273
54 954 958.1352686 0.435442 932.1684971
55 982 975.3508323 0.679965 953.98124
56 1005 1003.648655 0.086417 982.0282884
57 1022 1028.81682 0.657575 1004.516736
58 1036 1049.230773 1.277466 1022.095779
59 1035 1059.991928 2.41861 1035.996282
60 1052 1056.540792 0.437971 1034.960285
61 1066 1060.989892 0.502203 1051.933634
62 1079 1071.19868 0.706574 1066.345125
63 1099 1091.93803 0.622647 1078.821363
64 1111 1111.882655 0.042031 1098.779558
MAPE 0.96637 1.72

h) Simple exponential smoothing

time Quarterly GDP Simple exponential

smoothing APE
1 390 389.9 0
2 392 389.9025 0.408326
3 396 392.4514846 0.936106
4 402 398.3646923 1.027042
5 409 404.9561277 1.003063
6 414 411.4985965 0.704441
7 422 416.1534957 1.36647
8 427 425.3464754 0.491185
9 434 428.6942317 1.306815
10 446 437.7453432 1.757735
11 451 450.2336631 0.202477
12 459 451.6902001 1.504796
13 468 462.6936935 1.180591
14 469 471.5077949 0.571131
15 475 467.2382796 1.64763
16 475 479.719026 0.939157
17 478 472.6020919 1.09244
18 488 480.925303 1.401385
19 494 491.8244243 0.401879
20 505 494.9887536 2.01474
21 509 511.2173468 0.384668
22 512 508.0937758 0.84346
23 515 514.9852813 0.088035
24 516 515.7088184 0.02764
25 527 515.9361664 2.184418
26 541 534.3079396 1.200957
27 555 544.6639748 1.866919
28 573 561.1861043 2.101179
29 575 580.3913461 0.885983
30 588 572.2641113 2.677552
31 602 597.3684488 0.769845
32 615 604.7581925 1.647072
33 626 620.9067717 0.884176
34 645 629.7385796 2.354879
35 654 653.9547638 1.51E-09
36 671 653.9547638 2.486592
37 688 680.5445736 1.025744
38 697 691.7906409 0.730325
39 720 699.9058869 2.849501
40 733 732.6392605 0.045156
41 753 733.1670167 2.659745
42 773 765.1101707 0.973634
43 786 777.1050622 1.180158
44 812 791.9030584 2.477614
45 817 823.9826385 0.83769
46 826 813.0680925 1.512437
47 832 832.9771264 0.088443
48 833 831.8034713 0.172373
49 822 834.0936418 1.513516
50 866 814.2644408 5.932416
51 888 896.1456894 0.893561
52 908 883.4905555 2.68196
53 932 922.3134752 1.057214
54 954 938.0273954 1.672343
55 982 963.4659511 1.890203
56 1005 993.0637751 1.140145
57 1022 1011.325625 1.053731
 58 1036 1028.498732 0.723703
59 1035 1040.453637 0.53078
60 1052 1031.694415 1.924001
61 1066 1063.966043 0.223105
62 1079 1067.759497 1.025365
63 1099 1085.39774 1.217879
64 1111 1106.735171 0.421115
MAPE 1.23

I) Holts method

Holt's method/Additive Holt's method/Multiplicative

Lt Tt forecast APE Lt Tt forecast APE
Quarterly
time
GDP

1 390 389.9 0.0 389.9 0.0 390.1 0.0 385.7 1.1

2 392 391.5 0.7 389.9 0.4 391.6 5.0 390.1 0.4
3 396 396.1 2.6 392.2 1.0 396.1 5.3 396.6 0.1
4 402 402.5 4.3 398.7 0.9 402.6 5.4 401.4 0.3
5 409 409.0 5.4 406.8 0.6 409.1 5.5 408.0 0.3
6 414 414.4 5.4 414.4 0.0 414.4 5.5 414.7 0.1
7 422 421.9 6.4 419.8 0.5 422.0 5.8 419.9 0.5
8 427 427.5 6.0 428.3 0.2 427.4 5.7 427.8 0.1
9 434 434.4 6.4 433.4 0.2 434.4 5.9 433.1 0.3
10 446 445.5 8.6 440.8 1.1 445.9 6.5 440.3 1.2
11 451 451.2 7.2 454.2 0.7 451.1 6.4 452.4 0.3
12 459 458.6 7.3 458.4 0.0 458.7 6.5 457.5 0.2
13 468 468.2 8.4 465.9 0.5 468.4 6.9 465.2 0.6
14 469 468.9 4.8 476.6 1.7 468.5 6.1 475.3 1.4
15 475 475.1 5.4 473.7 0.3 475.1 6.2 474.6 0.1
16 475 475.3 3.0 480.5 1.1 474.9 5.4 481.2 1.3
17 478 477.8 2.8 478.3 0.1 477.7 5.1 480.3 0.5
18 488 487.7 6.1 480.6 1.5 488.0 5.7 482.8 1.0
19 494 493.8 6.1 493.8 0.0 493.8 5.7 493.7 0.0
20 505 505.1 8.5 499.9 1.0 505.5 6.4 499.5 1.1
21 509 509.3 6.5 513.7 0.9 509.1 6.1 511.9 0.5
22 512 512.4 4.9 515.8 0.7 512.3 5.7 515.2 0.5
23 515 515.5 4.0 517.4 0.4 515.3 5.4 518.0 0.5
24 516 515.9 2.4 519.5 0.7 515.6 4.8 520.7 0.9
25 527 527.4 6.6 518.2 1.7 527.8 5.7 520.4 1.3
26 541 540.8 9.8 534.0 1.3 541.2 6.6 533.5 1.3
27 555 555.0 11.9 550.5 0.8 555.4 7.5 547.8 1.3
28 573 573.2 14.8 566.8 1.1 573.8 8.9 563.0 1.8
29 575 575.4 8.9 588.0 2.2 574.9 7.9 582.6 1.3
30 588 588.0 10.6 584.3 0.6 588.3 8.6 582.8 0.9
31 602 602.0 12.2 598.6 0.6 602.3 9.2 596.9 0.9
32 615 614.9 12.5 614.2 0.1 615.1 9.7 611.5 0.5
33 626 626.5 12.1 627.4 0.2 626.5 9.9 624.7 0.3
34 645 644.9 15.0 638.5 1.0 645.4 11.0 636.4 1.3
35 654 654.0 12.3 659.9 0.9 653.8 10.7 656.4 0.4
36 671 670.6 14.3 666.3 0.6 671.0 11.4 664.5 0.9
37 688 687.6 15.5 684.9 0.4 687.9 12.1 682.4 0.8
38 697 696.9 12.7 703.1 0.9 696.7 11.7 700.0 0.4
39 720 720.4 17.7 709.6 1.5 721.1 13.2 708.4 1.7
40 733 733.0 15.3 738.0 0.7 732.9 13.1 734.3 0.2
41 753 753.2 17.6 748.3 0.6 753.6 14.0 746.0 1.0
42 773 772.6 18.5 770.8 0.2 772.9 14.6 767.6 0.7
43 786 786.4 16.3 791.1 0.6 786.3 14.5 787.5 0.1
44 812 812.0 20.6 802.7 1.1 812.6 15.9 800.8 1.4
45 817 817.2 13.5 832.6 1.9 816.5 14.5 828.5 1.4
46 826 825.6 11.1 830.7 0.6 825.3 13.8 831.0 0.7
47 832 832.3 9.0 836.7 0.5 831.9 12.9 839.0 0.8
48 833 833.3 5.3 841.3 1.0 832.6 11.4 844.8 1.4
49 822 821.8 -2.6 838.6 2.1 820.5 8.6 844.1 2.7
50 866 865.3 18.9 819.2 5.4 867.6 13.2 829.0 4.2
51 888 888.2 20.8 884.2 0.4 888.6 14.2 880.8 0.8
52 908 907.8 20.3 909.0 0.1 908.1 14.8 902.8 0.6
53 932 932.1 22.1 928.1 0.4 932.7 16.0 922.9 1.0
54 954 954.0 22.0 954.3 0.0 954.3 16.7 948.7 0.6
55 982 982.0 24.8 976.0 0.6 982.6 18.1 970.9 1.1
56 1005 1004.5 23.8 1006.8 0.2 1004.7 18.6 1000.7 0.4
57 1022 1022.1 20.9 1028.3 0.6 1022.0 18.4 1023.3 0.1
58 1036 1036.0 17.6 1043.0 0.7 1035.8 17.9 1040.5 0.4
59 1035 1035.1 9.0 1053.7 1.8 1034.0 15.5 1053.6 1.8
60 1052 1051.9 12.6 1044.1 0.7 1052.1 15.8 1049.4 0.2
61 1066 1066.3 13.5 1064.5 0.2 1066.3 15.6 1067.9 0.1
62 1079 1078.8 13.0 1079.8 0.1 1078.7 15.2 1081.9 0.3
63 1099 1098.7 16.2 1091.8 0.6 1099.0 15.8 1093.9 0.4
64 1111 1111.4 14.6 1115.0 0.3 1111.2 15.4 1114.9 0.3
MAPE .7938 .7935

HOLTS WINTER METHOD MULTIPLICATIVE HOLTS WINTER METHOD ADDITIVE

Quarterly
time
GDP
Lt Tt St Ft APE Lt Tt St Ft APE
1 390 0.99 -5.1

2 392 0.99 -3.5

3 396 1.00 1.1

4 402 395.02 5.80 1.02 395.02 5.80 7.48

5 409 411.86 7.39 0.99 395.63 3.28 409.80 5.80 -4.08 410.48 0.35

6 414 418.35 7.26 0.99 415.52 0.27 417.17 5.80 -3.33 419.45 1.21

7 422 421.62 6.69 1.00 426.84 1.17 421.49 5.80 0.97 428.44 1.54

8 427 421.16 5.66 1.02 436.42 2.10 422.36 5.80 6.91 435.65 1.92

9 434 435.39 6.89 1.00 423.88 2.42 435.08 5.80 -3.28 436.80 0.56

10 446 448.38 7.77 0.99 438.14 1.67 446.28 5.80 -2.71 448.74 0.71

11 451 451.79 7.14 1.00 456.52 1.19 450.80 5.80 0.83 457.57 1.42

12 459 453.10 6.30 1.01 465.89 1.59 453.29 5.80 6.53 466.00 1.62

13 468 467.49 7.47 1.00 458.28 2.12 467.43 5.80 -2.32 469.95 0.37

14 469 472.41 7.10 0.99 471.95 0.67 472.09 5.80 -2.84 475.18 1.36

15 475 476.41 6.65 1.00 478.87 0.80 475.44 5.80 0.54 482.06 1.47

16 475 472.05 5.07 1.01 489.00 2.89 472.82 5.80 5.56 485.15 2.08

17 478 477.11 5.07 1.00 477.82 0.00 479.64 5.80 -2.20 483.12 1.11

18 488 489.71 6.15 1.00 478.56 1.89 488.91 5.80 -2.44 491.87 0.84

19 494 495.30 6.07 1.00 494.49 0.14 493.74 5.80 0.43 500.08 1.27

20 505 501.55 6.10 1.01 504.95 0.04 499.58 5.80 5.57 510.94 1.14

21 509 508.34 6.20 1.00 508.40 0.17 509.47 5.80 -1.73 513.07 0.75

22 512 514.51 6.19 1.00 512.45 0.01 514.99 5.80 -2.47 518.35 1.16

23 515 517.69 5.76 1.00 519.14 0.72 516.90 5.80 -0.02 523.13 1.49

24 516 514.29 4.44 1.00 527.22 2.20 514.35 5.80 4.60 525.72 1.91

25 527 525.05 5.35 1.00 519.65 1.48 526.23 5.80 -1.03 530.30 0.54

26 541 540.64 6.82 1.00 528.24 2.32 539.59 5.80 -1.60 542.91 0.39

27 555 555.55 7.99 1.00 545.11 1.79 551.88 5.80 0.73 557.66 0.47

28 573 569.89 8.90 1.01 565.38 1.37 565.04 5.80 5.45 575.44 0.39

29 575 573.86 8.19 1.00 581.40 1.06 574.52 5.80 -0.60 579.30 0.70

30 588 586.79 8.87 1.00 582.17 0.99 586.57 5.80 -0.88 590.76 0.47

31 602 601.31 9.69 1.00 595.05 1.15 598.35 5.80 1.42 604.88 0.48

32 615 611.28 9.73 1.01 614.54 0.06 607.70 5.80 5.86 618.95 0.66

33 626 624.10 10.17 1.00 622.62 0.61 622.61 5.80 0.45 627.81 0.22

34 645 641.86 11.27 1.00 635.56 1.45 640.10 5.80 0.47 645.02 0.02

35 654 653.22 11.28 1.00 653.84 0.02 650.36 5.80 1.94 657.58 0.55

36 671 666.28 11.54 1.01 668.42 0.33 661.95 5.80 6.53 673.61 0.44

37 688 683.69 12.38 1.01 680.34 1.06 680.79 5.80 1.95 687.04 0.08

38 697 694.08 12.10 1.00 699.34 0.35 693.19 5.80 1.23 699.46 0.37
39 720 717.10 13.67 1.00 706.97 1.87 712.11 5.80 3.45 719.84 0.08

40 733 728.71 13.37 1.01 735.51 0.35 723.64 5.80 7.19 735.97 0.41

41 753 747.67 14.18 1.01 746.28 0.92 744.10 5.80 3.65 751.85 0.18

42 773 768.07 15.07 1.01 764.94 1.00 764.36 5.80 2.90 771.39 0.16

43 786 782.87 15.03 1.00 786.72 0.04 778.75 5.80 4.44 788.00 0.20

44 812 805.52 16.13 1.01 802.59 1.16 798.18 5.80 8.77 811.17 0.10

45 817 813.15 14.91 1.01 827.68 1.29 810.38 5.80 4.38 819.82 0.33

46 826 822.11 14.05 1.00 832.93 0.89 820.53 5.80 3.40 829.23 0.45

47 832 829.96 13.16 1.00 839.91 0.92 827.32 5.80 4.56 837.56 0.64

48 833 829.72 11.23 1.00 849.86 2.00 827.31 5.80 8.10 841.87 1.04

49 822 821.96 8.49 1.00 845.17 2.86 822.46 5.80 3.16 832.64 1.34

50 866 856.01 12.17 1.01 834.00 3.65 851.09 5.80 6.04 860.29 0.62

51 888 882.40 14.22 1.01 870.64 1.98 874.88 5.80 6.63 885.24 0.33

52 908 902.47 15.06 1.01 900.61 0.80 893.50 5.80 9.57 907.39 0.05

53 932 929.44 16.78 1.00 917.50 1.57 919.28 5.80 5.46 928.23 0.42

54 954 943.97 16.45 1.01 956.78 0.29 940.45 5.80 7.81 952.29 0.18

55 982 972.82 18.24 1.01 966.67 1.56 965.85 5.80 8.89 978.28 0.38

56 1005 997.20 19.12 1.01 996.91 0.76 987.31 5.80 11.38 1002.68 0.18

57 1022 1018.65 19.46 1.00 1019.22 0.28 1008.93 5.80 7.29 1020.18 0.19

58 1036 1027.55 17.94 1.01 1049.14 1.27 1023.78 5.80 8.85 1037.38 0.13

59 1035 1029.13 15.58 1.01 1055.31 1.97 1027.22 5.80 8.62 1041.91 0.67

60 1052 1044.39 15.54 1.01 1052.33 0.04 1038.08 5.80 11.97 1055.26 0.32

61 1066 1062.23 15.87 1.00 1063.50 0.27 1054.09 5.80 8.46 1067.17 0.08

62 1079 1071.45 14.91 1.01 1087.09 0.77 1066.66 5.80 9.64 1081.32 0.23

63 1099 1091.24 15.61 1.01 1092.73 0.55 1084.36 5.80 9.99 1098.78 0.00

64 1111 1104.09 15.21 1.01 1114.85 0.31 1096.41 5.80 12.69 1114.17 0.25

MAPE

1.14 0.66

TIME SERIES DECOMPOSITION(MULTIPLICATIVE)

Tt St TS CR C R Ft APE
Quarterly
time
GDP

1 390 305.26 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

2 392 317.02 0.92 292.87 1.34 1.19 0.84 292.99 25.16
3 396 328.78 0.98 320.69 1.24 1.23 1.09 428.69 8.21
4 402 340.54 1.06 361.02 1.11 1.17 1.05 445.98 10.80
5 409 352.30 1.00 351.64 1.16 1.17 0.95 392.05 4.16
6 414 364.06 0.92 336.33 1.23 1.18 0.98 391.24 5.59
7 422 375.82 0.98 366.57 1.15 1.14 1.08 451.69 7.06
8 427 387.58 1.06 410.88 1.04 1.09 1.05 472.92 10.64
9 434 399.34 1.00 398.59 1.09 1.10 0.94 414.66 4.54
10 446 411.10 0.92 379.78 1.17 1.12 0.97 413.87 7.12
11 451 422.86 0.98 412.45 1.09 1.09 1.08 483.91 7.26
12 459 434.62 1.06 460.75 1.00 1.05 1.05 503.98 9.90
13 468 446.38 1.00 445.55 1.05 1.05 0.95 443.46 5.29
14 469 458.14 0.92 423.24 1.11 1.07 0.99 444.78 5.13
15 475 469.90 0.98 458.33 1.04 1.02 1.08 507.71 6.87
16 475 481.66 1.06 510.62 0.93 0.98 1.06 529.26 11.36
17 478 493.42 1.00 492.50 0.97 0.98 0.95 458.39 4.07
18 488 505.18 0.92 466.69 1.05 1.00 0.97 452.79 7.17
19 494 516.94 0.98 504.22 0.98 0.98 1.07 526.98 6.72
20 505 528.70 1.06 560.49 0.90 0.94 1.04 548.92 8.66
21 509 540.46 1.00 539.45 0.94 0.95 0.95 486.21 4.53
22 512 552.22 0.92 510.15 1.00 0.96 0.98 481.60 6.01
23 515 563.98 0.98 550.10 0.94 0.93 1.08 552.54 7.20
24 516 575.74 1.06 610.36 0.85 0.89 1.05 571.90 10.87
25 527 587.50 1.00 586.40 0.90 0.91 0.93 495.61 6.04
26 541 599.26 0.92 553.61 0.98 0.94 0.96 497.96 7.92
27 555 611.02 0.98 595.98 0.93 0.93 1.06 582.20 4.90
28 573 622.78 1.06 660.23 0.87 0.90 1.03 614.85 7.26
29 575 634.54 1.00 633.35 0.91 0.92 0.94 549.90 4.41
30 588 646.30 0.92 597.06 0.98 0.94 0.96 542.33 7.77
31 602 658.06 0.98 641.86 0.94 0.93 1.06 632.13 5.00
32 615 669.82 1.06 710.09 0.87 0.91 1.03 666.00 8.31
33 626 681.58 1.00 680.31 0.92 0.93 0.93 589.09 5.96
34 645 693.34 0.92 640.52 1.01 0.96 0.96 589.81 8.55
35 654 705.10 0.98 687.75 0.95 0.95 1.06 692.48 5.89
36 671 716.86 1.06 759.96 0.88 0.93 1.03 722.62 7.75
37 688 728.62 1.00 727.26 0.95 0.95 0.93 641.77 6.66
38 697 740.38 0.92 683.98 1.02 0.98 0.96 646.68 7.20
39 720 752.14 0.98 733.63 0.98 0.97 1.05 747.47 3.75
40 733 763.90 1.06 809.83 0.91 0.95 1.03 795.27 8.50
41 753 775.66 1.00 774.21 0.97 0.98 0.92 700.73 6.97
42 773 787.42 0.92 727.43 1.06 1.01 0.96 707.69 8.41
43 786 799.18 0.98 779.51 1.01 1.01 1.06 827.95 5.28
44 812 810.94 1.06 859.70 0.94 0.98 1.03 867.28 6.81
45 817 822.70 1.00 821.16 1.00 1.00 0.94 775.62 5.08
46 826 834.46 0.92 770.89 1.07 1.02 0.97 767.11 7.08
47 832 846.22 0.98 825.39 1.01 1.00 1.07 883.92 6.21
48 833 857.98 1.06 909.57 0.92 0.96 1.05 917.11 10.07
49 822 869.74 1.00 868.12 0.95 0.98 0.94 795.27 3.21
50 866 881.50 0.92 814.35 1.06 1.01 0.94 770.77 10.96
51 888 893.26 0.98 871.28 1.02 1.01 1.05 926.13 4.27
52 908 905.02 1.06 959.44 0.95 0.99 1.02 978.08 7.74
53 932 916.78 1.00 915.07 1.02 1.03 0.92 865.86 7.11
54 954 928.54 0.92 857.80 1.11 1.07 0.95 873.83 8.40
55 982 940.30 0.98 917.16 1.07 1.06 1.05 1019.99 3.87
56 1005 952.06 1.06 1009.30 1.00 1.04 1.03 1080.69 7.58
57 1022 963.82 1.00 962.02 1.06 1.07 0.93 957.46 6.32
58 1036 975.58 0.92 901.26 1.15 1.10 0.97 957.54 7.57
59 1035 987.34 0.98 963.04 1.07 1.07 1.07 1107.01 6.96
60 1052 999.10 1.06 1059.17 0.99 1.04 1.03 1138.27 8.21
61 1066 1010.86 1.00 1008.97 1.06 1.06 0.93 1002.08 6.03
62 1079 1022.62 0.92 944.72 1.14 1.10 0.96 998.44 7.45
63 1099 1034.38 0.98 1008.92 1.09 1.08 1.06 1152.14 4.86
64 1111 1046.14 1.06 1109.04 1.00
MAPE 7.20

Method MAPE Parameters Tool used

Naive a)1.69% Excel
b)0.96%
c)6.50%
d)4.93%
Simple average basic 23.56% Excel
Moving average(K=3) 3.32 Minitab
Centred moving average 1.689 minitab
Double moving average(k=3) 0.967 mintitab
Weighted moving average 1.72 W1=.003 Excel
W2=0.004
W3=.99
Simple exponential smoothing 1.23 Alpha=1.59 Excel
Holt's method/Additive 0.79 alpha 0.99 Excel
beta 0.46
Holt's method/Multiplicative 0.7938 alpha 0.95 Excel
beta 0.05
HOLTS WINTER METHOD 1.14 alpha 0.81179 Excel
MULTIPLICATIVE beta 0.144019
gamma 0.180934
HOLTS WINTER METHOD ADDITIVE 1.22 alpha 0.672327 Excel
beta 0
gamma 0.077562
TIME SERIES 7.22 Excel
DECOMPOSITION(MULTIPLICATIVE)

The best forecasting method as per min MAPE is Holts method