Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Krannert
School of Management
students found the pace too fast, and ~10% too slow
3
Flanders of Springfield
Catalog Retailer
MGMT660
Introduction to
Operations Management
Important decisions:
What products?
Quantity to order?
Selling price?
Demand forecast
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Forecast
Demand
MGMT660
2400 0.3
0.1
MGMT660
Introduction to Operations
Management
600 (sale)
600 0.3
$27,000
1200 x 35 = $78,000
78000=$62,700
Expected profit
MGMT660
Introduction to
Operations Management
600 $39,000
$51,000
2400 $69,300
$52,800
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Perfect information
MGMT660
MGMT660
mismatch.
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Discussion
MGMT660
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Example: Mr. Smiths
(shortage)
MGMT660
Introduction to
Operations Management
15
Mr. Smiths Christmas
Tree Shop
MGMT660
Introduction to Operations
Management
16
Mr. Smiths Christmas
Tree Shop
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Newsvendor Model
Place an order
Begin
End Shortage
MGMT660
Excess
Demand is realized
Objective:
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Selling newspapers:
MGMT660
Important features
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Where
can it be applicable?
Perishable items
Food
Seasonal goods
Fashion
MGMT660
Sports
Flu vaccine
Revenue management
Seats on a plane
Hotel rooms
Rental cars
Entertainment events
Service industry
Staffing
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calendar
production
MGMT660
Demand Probability
1,000 0.1
2,000 0.1
Salvage price: $1
3,000 0.2
Cost: $2
4,000 0.3
5,000
0.2
6,000 0.1
Mean 3,700
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demand?
MGMT660
Left Short
1,700 0
0 300
6,000 0.1
3,700 0 2,300
Mean: 3,700 3,120 580 580
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How much to produce?
MGMT660
Demand
MGMT660
700 400
Q = E[Sales] + E[Leftover]
MGMT660
Is it better? 25
Compare
profits
Sources of revenue:
Salvage: E
[Leftovers] * Salvage
MGMT660
Introduction
to Operations Management
Costs: Q * Cost
4,000 * 2 = $25,700
1,400 100
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Order Profit
3,000 21,300
MGMT660
4,000
25,700
5,000 27,400
6,000
27,300
7,000 26,300
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Too many vs too
few
The consequence of ordering one unit too many than what you would have
Calendar: 2 1=1
MGMT660
Introduction to
Operations Management
Flanders: 35 15=20
Cu
The consequence of ordering one unit too few than what you
Calendar: 10 2 = 8
Flanders: 100
35 = 65
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Newsvendor critical ratio
What is optimal Q?
F()
is the
CU
MGMT660
F (Q ) cumulative
CO CU
distribution
function (CDF)
This ratio is called the critical ratio or critical fractile.
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What is the
optimal Q?
Heuristic arguments
P(Demand > Q) * CU
cumulative
distribution
MGMT660
Introduction to
Operations Management
P(Demand Q) * CO =F(Q) CO
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Discrete demand: calendar
(D Q)
MGMT660
3,000 0.2
0.4
5,000
0.2 0.9
6,000 0.1 1
equal
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Try Flanders on your own
value = 20;
65
Price $120
.764
CU CO CU 85
10035 = 65 12035=85
MGMT660
CO
3515 = 20 3515=20
CU
CO CU
0.764 .809
(Q)
1200 0.4
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Continuous
demand distribution
distribution
MGMT660
Introduction to
Operations Management
demand forecast.
MGMT660
z
36
Normal distribution tutorial
(D Q):
Distribution Function
MGMT660
Q z
CU
How to solve F (Q ) ?
CO CU
37
Newsvendor Example with
Normal
Distribution
MGMT660
Introduction to Operations
Management
Find z
Q* = mean + z
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Expected shortage, sale, and
profit
Expected Shortage = L
(z)
(z) = NORMDIST(z,0,1,FALSE)z*NORMSDIST(z)
MGMT660
Expected Profit =
Cost * Q
For calendar example:
We found z = 1.29
L(z) = 0.0465
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Expected Sale
Fill rate
Mean Demand
MGMT660
Mean Demand
Expected Shortage
1
Mean Demand
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Fill rate with Normal distribution
Calendar example:
We found z = 1.29
L(z) = 0.0465
MGMT660
Fill rate = 1
46.5/4000 = 98.83%
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Service
Level
Calendar example
CU
F (Q )
MGMT660
9/10 = .9
CO CU
Revenue: R
Summary Slides
Salvage value: V
First
CU R C
CO CU (C V ) ( R C )
Discrete
demand
Pr{ Demand Q
} critical ratio
Calculate the expected profit: Price * Exp. Sales + Salvage * Exp. Leftovers
Cost * Q
Summary Slides
Mean demand ()
Standard deviation ()
zratio
Step 2: Convert z
Q* = + zratio
L(zratio)
Expected
profit: Price * Exp. Sales + Salvage * Exp. Leftovers
Cost * Q
Summary Slides
Expected Sale
Fill rate
Mean Demand
Mean Demand
Expected Shortage
Mean Demand
F (Q )
CO CU
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Next time
More on newsvendor!
MGMT660
(posted on Blackboard)
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