Managing water quantity risks through informed land

use planning
Scott Lister
York Region, Newmarket, Ontario, Canada
Shelly Cuddy
Lake Simcoe Conservation Authority, Newmarket, Ontario, Canada

ABSTRACT
The Regional Municipality of York (York Region) is responsible for production and treatment of drinking water distributed
to over 1.1 million residents in Ontario, Canada. Those residents expect their drinking water to be safe and available
when they turn on their taps. York Region is working to protect water quantity and quality by implementing source
protection plans that were approved by the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change in 2015.
As part of the technical work that was the foundation for source protection plans, a water quantity risk assessment was
completed. Potential stress was predicted for groundwater sources across much of York Region under a future growth
and drought / climate change scenario. Policies to help ensure the long term viability of those groundwater supplies were
included in the approved source protection plans, which are being implemented by York Region, the Province, lower tier
municipalities and Conservation Authorities.
This paper will focus on efforts to manage risks relative to water quantity; reduction in groundwater recharge and
competing demand. The land use planning process has been leveraged to help maintain groundwater recharge, and is
being supplemented with a program to enhance recharge in historical communities. Competing demand is also being
addressed through land use planning policy, as new development reliant upon groundwater taking that could affect
municipal supplies cannot proceed until sustainability of the proposed water taking has been demonstrated. Both
processes rely upon close collaboration between multiple land and water management agencies.

La municipalit rgionale de York (rgion de York) est responsable de la production et du traitement de l'eau potable
distribue plus de 1,1 million de rsidents en Ontario, au Canada. Ces rsidents s'attendent ce que leur eau potable
soit sre et disponible lorsqu'ils allument leurs robinets. La rgion de York travaille protger la quantit et la qualit de
l'eau en mettant en uvre des plans de protection des sources qui ont t approuvs par le ministre de
l'Environnement et des Changements climatiques en 2015.
Dans le cadre du travail technique qui a servi de fondement aux plans de protection des sources, une valuation des
risques lis la quantit d'eau a t effectue. Un stress potentiel a t prvu pour les sources d'eaux souterraines dans
une grande partie de la rgion de York dans le cadre d'un scnario de croissance et de scheresse / changement
climatique futur. Les politiques visant assurer la viabilit long terme de ces approvisionnements en eau souterraine
ont t incluses dans les plans approuvs de protection des sources, qui sont mis en uvre par la rgion de York, la
province, les municipalits de palier infrieur et les autorits de protection de la nature.
Cet article se concentrera sur les efforts visant grer les risques lis la quantit d'eau; Rduction de la recharge des
eaux souterraines et de la concurrence. Le processus de planification de l'utilisation des terres a t exploit pour aider
maintenir la recharge des eaux souterraines et est complt par un programme visant amliorer la recharge dans les
communauts historiques. La demande en concurrence est galement aborde dans le cadre de la politique
d'amnagement du territoire, car un nouveau dveloppement qui dpend de l'utilisation des eaux souterraines qui
pourrait affecter les approvisionnements municipaux ne peut se poursuivre avant que la viabilit de la prise de l'eau
propose ait t dmontre. Les deux processus reposent sur une collaboration troite entre plusieurs agences de
gestion des eaux et des terres.

1 YORK REGION WATER SOURCES

The Regional Municipality of York (the Region) is a water

wholesaler in the Province of Ontario, Canada. The
Region has a population of over 1.1 million, growing to an
estimated 1.8 million by 2041, within nine (9) area
municipalities covering over 1,761 square kilometres (see
Figure 1).

Figure 1 York Region location map.
The Region is part of a two-tier governance structure
whereby the Region is responsible for coordination of
services, including drinking water and wastewater, and
the area municipalities are responsible for local delivery.
This requires strong partnerships and collaboration
between the Region and local municipal partners.
The Regions Environmental Services department is
responsible for the delivery of safe, high quality, drinking
water from forty-one (41) groundwater production wells,
two (2) surface water intakes from Lake Simcoe and two
(2) surface water intakes from Lake Ontario through
partnerships with neighboring municipalities, the City of
Toronto and Regional Municipality of Peel. The Region
also maintains and operates over 649 kilometres of
underground water and wastewater infrastructure, 3 water
treatment plants and 6 water resource recovery facilities
(wastewater treatment facilities) and a lagoon system.
With over two thirds of the Regions landscape affected by
environmental legislation such as the Oak Ridges
Moraine Conservation Plan (ORMCP), Greenbelt Plan,
and the Lake Simcoe Protection Plan (LSPP), prescribing
how growth and development can occur, the Region has
a long history of managing land use and water resources.
Those efforts specific to source water protection were
strengthened and formalized when the Province of
Ontario passed the Clean Water Act in 2006.
The Region employs a multi-barrier approach to prevent
the overuse and contamination of drinking water supplies.
Efforts are devoted to training, treatment, monitoring and
testing, emergency preparedness, and of course Source
Protection; mitigation of risks on the landscape today, and
prevention of future risks through land use planning.
The Region also supports partnerships with local
Conservation Authorities responsible for ensuring the
sustainability of water supplies through land use planning,
research and monitoring and stormwater management
practices.
2 PROGRAM VISION
The Regions 2015-2019 strategic plan, developed by
Councilors representing residents and businesses of the
Region, is focused upon achieving Good Government,
Healthy Communities, Economic Vitality and a
Sustainable Environment. Safe and reliable drinking water
is necessary to all four of these broad objectives, and is a
critical priority within the Environmental Services
department at York Region.
The Region is successfully ensuring that all barriers of the
multi-barrier approach to protecting drinking water are
under the same umbrella, the Environmental Services
Department. The Clean Water Act, legislation passed by
the Province of Ontario to mandate the first barrier,
Source Protection, prescribed a science-based,
consultative, and stakeholder driven process that started
with characterization of drinking water systems and
potential risks to those systems, and ultimately led to
development of policies to prevent or mitigate risks to
drinking water. Source Protection Committees were
empowered to oversee the process, comprised of
representatives from municipalities (one third), members
of the public (one third) and representatives from the
business and farming community (one third).
York Region is within two watersheds and hence two
source protection regions: the South Georgian Bay Lake
Simcoe (SGBLS) Source Protection Region and the
Credit Valley, Toronto and Region and Central Lake
Ontario (CTC) Source Protection Region.
At numerous points in the technical characterization and
policy development process the Source Protection
Committees engaged the public and affected
stakeholders (business and land owners within the
identified vulnerable areas) to inform them of the process,
the location of their business or property relative to
municipal drinking water sources, and potential policy
implications. Those stakeholders had multiple
opportunities to provide written comments to the Source
Protection Committees, who considered those through
each progressive stage of the process. The Region has
been involved every step of the way.
3 CHARACTERIZATION
The Clean Water Act prescribed a risk-based approach to
prioritize drinking water management efforts. Potential
threats to water quality or quantity were characterized as
Significant, Moderate or Low through a series of technical
studies. York Region completed sophisticated technical
assessments of vulnerable areas, drinking water threats
and risk using an advanced understanding of water
resources.
3.1 Watershed Monitoring and Modeling
The Water Resources Monitoring team at the Region
collects and manages chemistry and groundwater level
data from 185 monitoring wells. Specifically, staff collect
and analyze raw water chemistry, and water levels from
both production and monitoring wells. This information is
used to support water resource management and
regulatory compliance objectives which include:
assessment of potential impacts to Region supply wells
from surrounding groundwater users, and potential risks
to Region groundwater supply systems. Monitoring results
are presented in Water Resources Annual Monitoring
Reports: the Water Resources Monitoring Program
Summary and the Groundwater System Summaries.
This information, along with supplementary data such as
streamflow and precipitation from partner agencies (such
as Conservation Authorities), is maintained in a
comprehensive, water resource data management
system. The Region and the Lake Simcoe Region
Conservation Authority (LSRCA) are two of thirteen
member agencies working to better understand and
manage water resources in south-central Ontario. The
program maintains this extensive data warehouse, one of
Canadas largest actively-managed water resource
databases. The program also maintains and manages a
number of numerical groundwater and surface water flow
models. The database and models were used to delineate
the sensitive areas described below.
3.2 Quantity Characterization
and available drawdown were characterized for municipal
wells. Current and future land use (to reflect urbanization)
was also characterized and used as inputs to the
modeling scenarios.
In York Region, future water demand associated with
growth triggered the water quantity risk assessment. As
noted above, the Region is a member of a groundwater
management partnership that maintains water resource
and geological databases, and developed a large-scale
numerical flow model that covers the entirety of York
Region. That information and existing model were built
upon for the water quantity risk assessment. The project
was completed using a US Geological Survey, GSFLOW
transient model, a coupled surface water/groundwater
model.
The WHPA-Q1 and WHPA-Q2 are vulnerable areas that
were delineated to assess and manage water quantity
risk. The WHPA-Q1 is defined as the cone of influence of
the well and the whole of the cones of influence of all
other wells that intersect that area. WHPA-Q2 is an area
that includes the WHPA-Q1 and any area where future
development (reduction in recharge), adjacent to the
WHPA-Q1 boundary, could have an impact on the
municipal groundwater supply wells. The WHPA-Q1 and
Q2 constitute a planning boundary where all existing and
future water quantity threats are managed. In York Region
the WHPA-Q1 and WHPA-Q2 are identical, and cover
62% of the Region (see Figure 2).

3.2.1 Significant Groundwater Recharge Areas

Protection of significant groundwater recharge areas
helps to maintain water levels in drinking water supply
aquifers. These are areas with porous soils such as sand
or gravel that have higher than average infiltration rates
and are hydraulically connected to a groundwater supply
well. In York Region a significant recharge area is defined
as an area that annually recharges groundwater at a rate
that is 15% greater than watershed average. Significant
Groundwater Recharge Areas were delineated using a
numerical surface water model (Precipitation-Runoff
Modeling System, PRMS) that was developed as part of
the water budget assessments, and these areas cover
31% of York Region.

3.2.2 Water Quantity Risk Assessment

The Ontario program relies on a tiered approach to
assessing risk to quantity, beginning with simple
evaluations of water availability compared to demand.
Where water demand exceeds 10% of supply, the data
and tools used for the assessment are refined and stress
re-evaluated. If stress is confirmed through the iterative
process, the final water quantity risk assessment is
completed using coupled groundwater and surface water
numerical models. Those models are used to predict the
long term viability of water supplies considering growth in
demand from population expansion, reduction in recharge
related to development, and potential drought scenarios. Figure 2 - location of vulnerable areas in York Region.
In addition, to characterize the groundwater flow system,
the work includes review of the municipal supply system. Initial results from the assessment identified a significant
Existing and forecasted water demand, well construction, risk to water supplies under potential drought conditions
(aquifer levels were predicted to drop below pump
elevations for some supply wells). The Regions water
distribution infrastructure is largely inter-connected,
however, allowing for operational adjustments to address
this predicted stress. After adjusting pumping (less from
wells susceptible to drought and more from deeper,
resilient wells) and replicating the assessment, water
levels were predicted to remain above pump elevations,
lowering the risk level to moderate.
The tools and methods used in the technical
characterization of drinking water systems and risks
described above were prescribed by the Provincial
Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, who
developed the Technical Rules and were also responsible
for review and approval of the final products with respect
to the CTC and SGBLS Assessment Reports and the
CTC and SGBLS Source Protection Plans (see Figure 3).
York Region led the technical work locally; municipal staff
managed the projects, which were undertaken by expert
consultants. The Source Protection Committees provided
guidance and local oversight.
Figure 3 South Georgian Bay Lake Simcoe Source
Protection Plan.
3.3 Protecting for Quantity
Where potential water quantity stresses exist, as is the
case for York Region, Source Protection Plans included
policies to ensure the long term viability of municipal
drinking water supplies. The policies require action to
prepare for drought, special care in managing proposed
water taking, managing development to maintain
groundwater recharge, and a program to encourage water
conservation.
3.3.1 Drought Management
To help address water quantity risk, York Region
developed a drought management plan to redistribute
water taking from wells susceptible to drought to more
resilient wells. Interconnectivity of the supply system
allowed for this redistribution, which has been modeled
and is predicted to mitigate impacts of extreme drought
(climate change).
3.3.2 Recharge Maintenance
A land use planning policy within the Source Protection
Plan requires that recharge be maintained for any major
development (new impervious area greater than or equal
2
to 500 m ) within the WHPA-Q2. Where LID techniques
and other best management practices cannot maintain
post-development recharge volumes, off-site
compensation is permitted. Working with Conservation
Authorities and local municipalities, developers can
enhance recharge where opportunities exist (for example,
retrofitting an impervious parking lot with low-impact
facilities) to make up for lost recharge and maintain an
aquifer-wide balance.
In York Region, water budget studies assessing pre- and
post-development recharge volumes are required within
the WHPA-Q2 area for any large development
applications. Those studies, along with off-site
compensation proposals where appropriate, are reviewed
by hydrogeologists at Conservation Authorities and local
municipalities consultants to ensure recharge
maintenance required by the Source Protection Plan
policy.

Figure 4 Recharge management process guide.
3.3.3 Conservation Authority Review
Water balance methods are an appropriate means for
predicting the changes to the hydrologic cycle that results
from urban development. They can be used to determine
amounts of water that should be infiltrated to compensate
for reductions caused by large paved areas or changes to
vegetation.
Completing a water balance requires the expertise of a
multi-disciplinary team of qualified professionals, typically
including a hydrogeologist, water resources engineer and
in some cases a terrestrial or aquatic ecologist. The input
and analysis of appropriate professionals need to be
integrated into the final water balance submission. The
purpose of the water balance analysis is to reasonably
estimate the current infiltration rates to the subsurface
and to then determine how much this rate will change as
a result of the proposed development. It is recognized
that site specific water balances are difficult to accurately
estimate; the goal is to assess the difference between
pre- and post-development conditions and to mitigate the
loss of infiltration.
It is common practice and an accepted method to provide
estimates of surplus using a Thornthwaite and Mather
approach where surplus is estimated based on
precipitation minus evapotranspiration (Steenhuis and
Van Der Molen, 1986). Infiltration portion of the surplus
can be estimated by applying the infiltration factors
provided in the Ministry of the Environment and Energy
Hydrogeological Technical Information Requirements for
Land Development Applications (1995). These factors
consider slope, vegetation and soils. The remainder of
surplus is considered to be runoff.
With the recent completion of technical studies required
under The Clean Water Act, 2006, numerical models were
utilized to estimate, interception, evaporation, potential
and actual evapotranspiration, snowmelt, runoff,
infiltration, interflow, and groundwater recharge. Many of
these model estimates are based on soils, surficial
geology and land use mapping products but may also
consider detailed vegetation attributes as well as
hydrological cycle functions. These modelling output data
are available and consultants are encouraged to use them
when completing site specific water balance
assessments.
The water balance tables provided in the Lake Simcoe
Climate Data: A Reference Document to Support the
Completion of Water Balance Assessments (2017) are
average values obtained from the numerical surface water
model undertaken by Earthfx (2010), required under the
Clean Water Act, 2006. The resulting water balance
parameters are categorized by various vegetation covers
in different soil types for each subwatershed within the
Lake Simcoe Basin. Infiltration factors can then be applied
based on specific site conditions vegetation, soil and
topography, using the above mentioned methodology.
When applied to an appropriate catchment area, they can
provide reasonable estimates of infiltration for comparison
purposes.
3.3.3.1 Internal Process at Lake Simcoe Region
Conservation Authority
LSRCAs hydrogeology team within the Planning and
Development Department reviews water balance
assessments under the SGBLS source protection plan
policy LUP-12. The typical review consists of verifying
each of the following water balance components meet the
intent of the SGBLS Source Protection Plan Policy LUP-
12:
Pre-development infiltration and runoff volumes;
Post-development infiltration and runoff volumes;
Post-development estimates of recharge deficit
or excess; and
Proposed mitigation measures and design.
Reviews are based on the water balance criteria and
technical requirements outlined within the Conservation
Authority Hydrogeological Assessment Guidelines for
Land Development Applications (2013), as well as taking
into account LSRCA policies along with other legislative
requirements (e.g. LSPP, ORMCP). Infiltration mitigation
measures and their designs are based on appropriate
stormwater management and LID criteria such the MOE
Stormwater Management Planning and Design Manual
(MOE, 2003), and the Low Impact Development
Stormwater Management Planning and Design Guide
(TRCA and CVC, 2010). LSRCA hydrogeologists are also
available to advise proponents on the policy
requirements, scope of the study and provide guidance on
mitigation strategies.
 result for applications with site conditions that do not
support standard mitigation practices.

3.3.3.3 LSRCA Recharge Compensation Program

The SGBLS Source Protection Plan policy LUP-12
requires that the proponent demonstrate that pre-
development recharge will be maintained through a
hydrogeological study and water balance assessment
undertaken for the development. For those sites where
pre-development recharge cannot be maintained
recharge compensation may be considered.
As previously mentioned LSRCA will be implementing the
recharge compensation program on behalf of the local
municipalities within the Region of York and WHPA-Q2.
The recharge compensation program will be administered
through the LSRCAs Planning and Development
department and projects will be implemented through the
RainScaping Program. The LSRCAs hydrogeology team
determines the requirement for compensation, costing,
site/project selection and project implementation.

3.3.3.3.1 RainScaping Program

When land is developed and native vegetation and soils
are replaced by impermeable surfaces, water can no
Figure 5 Water balance guide. longer seep into the ground and replenish the local and
regional aquifers supporting natural surface water
features and municipal and private groundwater drinking
3.3.3.2 LSRCA Circulation Process
water supplies can decrease.
STEP 1: York Region lower-tier municipal planner
RainScaping is changing the way water is managed in
screens all applications. In addition to layers already
urban areas for a greater environmental benefit. The
screened and circulated to LSRCA (i.e., LSRCA
program has two distinct focuses that take a similar path
Regulated Areas, LSPP, ORM, Greenbelt, etc.),
to seek a common objective to better manage urban
screening will now also include the WHPA-Q2 layer.
stormwater using sustainable LID practices. LID practices
STEP 2: If the application falls within the WHPA-Q2 and
can be applied to new development, redevelopment, or as
does not have a site specific planning application made
retrofits to existing development. LID has been adapted to
before July 1, 2015 (the effective date for the SGBLS
a range of land uses from high density ultra-urban
Source Protection Plan) with information on changes to
settings to low density development.
imperviousness, and is one of the following Planning Act
For new or redevelopment, LSRCAs planning and
applications, the municipal planner circulates the
technical staff work with municipal partners and the
application to the LSRCA Planning and Development
development community in the watershed to promote LID
Division (Note: All major development applications within
as an innovative stormwater management approach that
the WHPA-Q2 area will be sent to LSRCA for water
treats, infiltrates, filters, and retains runoff at the source.
balance review):
The objective of LID is to reduce stormwater run-off and
Site plan applications (excluding one single
increase groundwater infiltration on the site where
family dwelling and non-commercial agricultural
possible.
structures),
In urban areas where a significant portion of the
Draft plan of subdivision or condominium landscape is impervious and traditional stormwater
applications, and techniques have been relied upon (e.g. stormwater
Associated implementing official plan or zoning ponds), there may be opportunities where retrofit projects
by-law amendment applications (if applicable). (LIDs) can be implemented. The recharge compensation
STEP 3: LSRCAs development planner reviews program would fund a number of these projects.
applications to confirm which screening areas apply. If the
application is within the WHPA-Q2 areas, its sent to the
3.3.3.3.2 Requirement for Off-Site Compensation
LSRCA hydrogeology team for review.
Although, the intent of policy LUP-12 is to maintain pre-
STEP 4: The LSRCA hydrogeology team reviews the
development infiltration on site whenever possible, it is
application with respect to the water balance and
recognized that certain conditions may exist on a
hydrogeology of the site and provides comments to the
development site that are not ideal to implement best
LSRCA planner for inclusion in their proponent letter. The
management practices aimed at enhancing infiltration.
LSRCA planner responds in writing to the appropriate
Therefore, the policy provides an alternative for those
lower-tier municipality. If application does not meet
developments where an applicant has shown through the
applicable water balance guidelines there may be multiple
technical studies (i.e. water balance and hydrogeological
submissions by the applicant. Off-site compensation may
study) there are constraints associated with achieving
pre-development infiltration rates. Examples of specific
limiting conditions associated with promoting infiltration for
the purpose of maintaining pre-development infiltration
volumes may include:
1. high groundwater table conditions may preclude
the use of certain LID practices since the bottom
of the LID facility should be vertically separated
by at least one (1) metre from the seasonally
high water table or top of bedrock elevation;
2. low infiltration capacity of soils will increase the
footprint of an infiltration facility which may not
be practical for all types of development; and/or
3. water quality concerns associated with infiltrating
stormwater.
If the technical studies and water balance completed as
part of the development application demonstrate it is
difficult to achieve pre-development infiltration targets on
the site due to one or more of the above constraints, off-
site compensation is considered as an effective method of
maintaining recharge in the WHPA-Q2.
3.3.3.3.3 Compensation Costs
The structure of the recharge compensation program
would result in the proponent paying a compensation fee
which would be based on the infiltration deficit determined
through the water balance exercise. The fees collected
fund urban retrofit (LID) projects implemented under
LSRCAs RainScaping Program. The projects
implemented by LSRCA may include retrofit or joint
venture projects and may be funded by multiple funding
sources.
The recharge compensation fee structure developed by
LSRCA considered a number of factors, including current
costs of various LID projects, how the projects would be
sized, and what types of soil conditions may be expected.
The costing structure is based on conservative LID
estimates due to the unknown circumstances in which
they may be implemented in. As a result of policy
objectives and reporting, the LSRCA will also need to
implement projects in a timely manner, which will require
having each project fully funded. LSRCA staff will be
required to manage the project design and construction
and the time commitment will depend on the number of
compensation projects undertaken on an annual basis.
Based on previous known LID project costs, the resulting
compensation fee was determined to be $1,200 for each
cubic metre of storage volume required or $52.80 for each
cubic metre of annual infiltration lost as a result of the
proposed development.
3.3.4 Competing Demand / Permits to Take Water
The Ministry of Environment and Climate Change
(Provincial agency responsible for approving water taking
permits) must ensure any proposed water taking within
WHPA-Q1 is sustainable and will not impair the municipal
supply before granting approval.
3.3.5 Water Conservation
In order to manage demand and defer new supply needs,
municipalities are required to develop and implement
water conservation strategies. Within York Region, the
Water for Tomorrow Conservation program has been in
place since 1998. It has resulted in a savings of 6.87
million gallons of water each day, through education and
programs for residents as well as rebates on selected
water-saving appliances. The Source Protection policy
requires continuation of the program, which is expanding
from residential water conservation to also address large
volume users (industry and agriculture).
3.3.6 Low Impact Design Standards
Through the development approvals process, the
Regions Water Resources staff encourages low impact
design techniques, which were developed by
Conservation Authorities with Regional input. York Region
also encourages sustainable development through
Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED)
programing for new residential high-rise buildings (4 or
more storeys with up to 30 % servicing allocation
incentive) and servicing incentive program. The LEED
program includes stormwater management and
wastewater flow reduction measures, revised incentive
options and mew certification requirements. Under the
regular application process, municipalities are required to
provide full servicing for the development to proceed.
Developments that meet the program criteria may qualify
for servicing allocation assignment credits directly from
the Region.
References
Conservation Ontario, 2013. Conservation Authoritys
Hydrogeological Guidelines for Land
Development Applications.
http://www.lsrca.on.ca/pdf/hydrological_guideline
s.pdf
Earthfx Inc. 2010. Water Balance Analysis of the Lake
Simcoe Basin using the Precipitation-Runoff
Modelling Systems (PRMS).
LSRCA, 2017. Lake Simcoe Climate Data: A Reference
Document to Support the Completion of Water
Balance Assessments.
MOE, 2003. Stormwater Management Planning and
Design Manual. Toronto, ON.
MOEE, 1995. Hydrogeological Technical Information for
Land Development Applications.
South Georgian Bay-Lake Simcoe Source Protection
Committee, 2015. Approved Assessment Report:
Lake Simcoe and Couchiching-Black River
Source Protection Area Part 1
TRCA and CVC, 2010. Low Impact Development
Stormwater Management Planning and Design Guide.
Uda, M., Van Seters, T., Graham, C., Rocha, L., 2013.
Evaluation of Life Cycle Costs for Low Impact
Development Stormwater Managtement Practices.
Sustainable Technologies Evaluation Program, Toronto
and Region Conservation Authority.