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They responded to CNBCs invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were
collected on December 7-9, 2017. Participants were not required to answer every question.
This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those
who did accept our invitation.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Raise interest
rates 98%
Lower interest
rates 0%
Keep rates
unchanged 2%
Don't know/
unsure 0%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
(For the 100% answering the next move will be to raise rates)
Jan '18 0%
Feb 0%
Mar 67%
Apr 2%
Average:
May 7%
April
2018
Jun 21%
Jul 0%
Aug 0%
Sep 0%
Oct 0%
After
Oct '18 2%
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.86 2.84
Average
2.50 2.63
1.50
1.00
Sep 19 Oct 31 Dec 12
Survey Dates
Jun
13 2.4
Jul
25 2.5
Survey dates
Sep
19 2.4
Dec
12 2.6
5. Roughly how many years will the Fed take to reach this
goal?
Years
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Jun
13 4.6
Jul
25 4.6
Survey dates
Sep
19 4.4
Dec
12 4.4
6. When, if at all, will Congress pass a tax cut bill along the
lines of the measures that have recently passed the
House and Senate?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Feb 0%
Mar 2% Average:
December
Apr 0%
2017
May 0%
Jun 0%
After
Jun 0%
'18
Never 0%
Don't
know/ 2%
unsure
2018 +0.46
2019 +0.52
Annual
average
over the +0.45
next 10
years
Oct 31 Dec 12
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Workers, 12%
through
higher
wages 5%
Shareholders 54%
and
executives
51%
Both 35%
about
equally
44%
Oct 31 Dec 12
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
33%
Yes
24%
62%
No
66%
Don't 5%
know/
unsure
10%
Oct 31 Dec 12
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Very 9%
concerned
5%
Somewhat 70%
concerned
68%
Don't 7%
know/
unsure 7%
11. Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock index will
be on ?
3,000
2,800
2775
2708
2,600
2588 2593
2555 2564 2562
2480
2453
2,400
2,200
2,000
1,800
Dec Jan 31 Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct 31 Dec 12
13 2017 14 2 13 25 19
Survey Dates
4.0%
2.84%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct 31 Dec 12
13 31 14 2 13 25 19
2017
Survey Dates
13. Where do you expect the fed funds target rate will
be on ?
Dec 31, 2018 Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2020
3.0%
2.73%
2.70%
2.67%2.70% 2.68% 2.67%
2.60%
2.56%
2.49%
2.5%
2.54%
2.25% 2.42%
2.17% 2.19%
2.22% 2.15% 2.14%
2.07% 2.06%
2.10% 2.03%
2.0% 2.06%
1.87%
2.02%
1.81%
1.78%
1.69%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec
26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14 2 13 25 19 31 12
2017
14. At what fed funds level will the Federal Reserve stop
hiking rates in the current cycle? That is, what will be the
terminal rate?
4.0%
3.5%
3.30%
3.20%
3.17%
3.11%
3.06%
3.16%
2.98% 2.95%
3.0% 3.04% 2.94% 2.94%
2.92%
2.85%
2.91%
2.85%2.79% 2.73% 2.80%
2.65%
2.69%
2.65% 2.64% 2.66%
2.58% 2.48%
2.5% 2.56%
2.42% 2.44%
2.29%
2.0%
Sep 16
Sept 16
Sep 20
Jul 25
Sep 19
Oct 28
Jun 16
Oct 27
Jun 14
Jun 13
Oct 31
Aug 20
Dec 16
Mar 17
Jul 28
Jan 26 '16
Jul 26
Jan 31 '17
Jan 27, '15
Dec 15
Mar 15
Dec 13
Mar 14
Dec 12
Apr 28
Aug 25
Apr 26
Aug 24
Nov 1
May 2
Survey Dates
3.0%
2.85%
2.85%
2.8% +2.76% +2.75%
2.61%
+2.62%
2.6% 2.60%
+2.58%
2.2%
2.0%
1.8%
Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14 May 2 Jun 13 Jul 25 Sep 19 Oct 31 Dec 12
2018 +2.76% +2.75% +2.62% +2.58% +2.45% 2.45% 2.60% 2.61% 2.85%
2019 2.85%
2.8%
2.64%
2.4%
2.30%
2.28% 2.23%
2.2%
2.15% 2.14%
2.0%
1.8%
1.6%
Dec 13 Jan Mar May 2 Jun 13 Jul 25 Sep 19 Oct 31 Dec 12
31 14
2017
Survey Dates
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Don't know/unsure 0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Don't know/unsure 3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Don't know/unsure 5%
Yellen Powell
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00
3.95
Leadership
3.60
4.10
Transparency
3.69
3.80
Communication
3.62
Economic 3.35
forecasting 2.95
Economic 4.43
expertise 2.87
Regulatory 3.53
expertise 3.97
Market 3.28
knowledge 3.77
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
A (4) 40%
B (3) 43%
C (2) 13%
Average:
D (1) 5% B+
(3.18)
F (0) 0%
Don't
know/ 0%
unsure
Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
Apr 30 2 3 2 1
13 0 1 0 0 2 2 1 0
1 2 2 1
Jun 18 5 8 0 3 3 0 3 0
3 2 1 1
Jul 30 8 0 2 0 2 2 0 4 4
2 2 1
Sep 17 4 7 2 2 0 4 8 7 2
2 2 1
Oct 29 8 9 4 3 3 3 8 3 0
3 2 1
Dec 17 5 2 9 2 0 2 5 2 2
Jan 28 2 3 1 2
'14 7 1 0 2 0 0 2 1 0
1 2 2 1
Mar 18 0 3 6 3 5 0 5 8 0
2 2 1 1
Apr 28 3 6 1 3 5 0 8 8 3 0
1 2 1 1 1 1
Jul 29 2 9 2 6 3 0 2 2 2 3
2 2 1 1
Sep 16 6 6 9 6 3 0 6 1 1 3
3 1 1 1
Oct 28 1 8 5 3 3 0 0 8 8 3
4 1 1 1
Dec 16 0 4 4 3 6 0 3 4 3 0
Jan 27 1 1 4 1
'15 0 3 9 0 0 0 6 6 1 6 6 0
Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
1 2 1 1
Mar 17 6 4 0 3 6 0 6 8 8 7 4 0
1 1 2 1
April 28 3 1 8 3 0 0 6 1 8 8 9 3
1 1 2 2 1
Jun 16 3 7 3 0 0 0 4 5 2 6 1 0
2 1 2
Jul 28 6 1 9 0 0 0 2 6 9 9 9 0
1 4 1
Sept 16 0 6 2 0 4 0 0 8 5 8 4 2
1 4 1
Oct 27 0 8 5 3 8 0 8 3 1 0 5 0
1 1 4 1
Dec 15 0 0 5 0 0 0 8 0 4 5 3 5 0
Jan 26 1 4 2
'16 0 0 5 0 3 0 0 5 4 8 0 3 3
2 3 2
Mar 15 5 1 3 0 0 0 5 5 3 5 0 3 1 0
2 3 1
Apr 26 0 2 2 2 2 0 0 7 6 9 0 7 1 2
2 2 1 1
Jun 14 0 8 5 3 0 0 3 0 8 8 0 5 3 0 0
2 1 2
Jul 26 2 0 7 2 2 0 2 0 2 7 0 7 7 7 2
1 3 1 1
Aug 24 3 9 3 3 0 0 3 3 1 3 3 6 4 1 0
1 1 3 1
Sep 20 0 6 1 3 0 0 0 3 0 8 5 5 8 1 0
2 3
Nov 1 3 7 8 0 3 0 8 3 2 3 0 0 5 8 0
Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
1 2
Dec 13 5 9 2 7 0 0 7 7 9 0 2 7 8 5 2
Jan 31 1 1 5 1
'17 0 5 3 3 0 0 0 3 0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
4 1
Mar 14 0 7 2 2 0 0 0 7 4 7 0 2 4 7 4 3 0
2 2 1
May 2 0 8 3 3 0 0 0 5 4 5 0 0 5 6 8 3 0
2 1 1
Jun 13 0 5 5 5 0 3 0 3 1 8 5 0 0 6 8 8 3 0
1 1 2 1
Jul 25 0 5 5 3 3 0 0 0 3 8 5 0 0 0 5 8 8 0
1 1 3
Sep 19 0 2 2 0 2 0 5 2 7 0 7 2 0 2 2 7 7 0
2 1 1 1
Oct 31 0 7 2 2 0 0 0 5 3 5 0 0 2 9 2 4 9 0
1 1 1 1 1
Dec 12 0 7 5 2 0 0 0 7 2 0 2 0 2 2 7 5 5 2 0
Other responses:
China debt deceleration Large shift in market
expectations regarding the
Debt levels
monetary policy outlook
Labor shortages
Market turmoil leading to
real economy decline
36.1%
This survey:
35%
34.0% 14.9%
30%
28.5% 28.8%
26.0%
25.9%
25.3%
25.5%
25% 24.4%
23.5%
22.9% 24.1%
23.2%
22.1%
22.2%
20.6% 21.6%
20.4% 21.1% 19.3%
20% 20.3% 18.9%
18.4% 18.8%
18.2% 18.5%
19.1% 17.3% 18.6% 18.1%
16.9% 16.9%
17.6% 16.2% 16.4% 17.4%
16.7%
15.1% 16.4%
16.2%
15% 15.1%
15.3% 15.0%
15.2% 15.2% 14.9%
14.6% 14.7%
13.6%
13.0%
10%
Oct. 31
Mar 16
Mar 19
Jun 18
Mar 18
Mar 17
Jun 16
Mar 15
Jun 14
Mar 14
Jun 13
Aug 11, '11
Jul 31
Sep 12
Dec 11
Jul 30
Dec 17
Jan 28 '14
Jul 29
Sep 16
Dec 16
Jan 27 '15
Jul 28
Dec 15
Jan 15 '16
Jul 26
Sep 20
Dec 13
Jan 31 '17
Jul 25
Sep 19
Dec 12
Jan 23, '12
April 28
Sept 16
Aug 24
May 2
Apr 24
Apr 30
Sep 6
Oct 29
Apr 28
Oct 28
Oct 27
Jan 26
Apr 26
Nov 1
Oct 31
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
A bubble 80%
Based on
fundamentals 2%
Don't know/
unsure 17%
Yes 17%
No 66%
Don't
know/ 17%
unsure
Currencies
0% Other
12%
Fixed
Income
15%
Economics
51%
Equities
22%
Comments:
Tax cuts will benefit small-cap US stocks more than large caps. In
terms of individual tax cuts, if the top 10% of wage earners who pay
70% to 80% of all federal income taxes and are responsible for
70%+ of all discretionary spending do not get a tax cut, how is the
overall economy going to benefit by a noticeable amount? Individual
tax "reform" doesn't appear likely to truly drive the economy
forward.