Cross Table (MS 2013 2014) Analysis

Correlations

temp Disease
max temp min rh max rh min rainfall die score incidence spore
temp max Pearson Correlation 1 -.155 -.363** -.749** -.031 -.164 -.212* -.268**
Sig. (2-tailed) .105 .000 .000 .750 .087 .026 .005
N 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110
temp min Pearson Correlation -.155 1 .223* .413** .121 -.488** -.437** .152
Sig. (2-tailed) .105 .019 .000 .208 .000 .000 .112
N 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110
** * ** * * *
rh max Pearson Correlation -.363 .223 1 .545 .210 -.197 -.206 .164
Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .019 .000 .028 .039 .031 .087
N 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110
** ** **
rh min Pearson Correlation -.749 .413 .545 1 .178 -.114 -.086 .343**
Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .000 .000 .063 .236 .372 .000
N 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110
*
rainfall Pearson Correlation -.031 .121 .210 .178 1 -.033 -.027 .017
Sig. (2-tailed) .750 .208 .028 .063 .730 .777 .858
N 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110
die score Pearson Correlation -.164 -.488** -.197* -.114 -.033 1 .967** .044
Sig. (2-tailed) .087 .000 .039 .236 .730 .000 .648
N 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110
* ** * **
die Pearson Correlation -.212 -.437 -.206 -.086 -.027 .967 1 .061
severity Sig. (2-tailed) .026 .000 .031 .372 .777 .000 .530
N 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110
** **
spore Pearson Correlation -.268 .152 .164 .343 .017 .044 .061 1
Sig. (2-tailed) .005 .112 .087 .000 .858 .648 .530
N 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
*. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed).

Weather parameter Disease Incidence (%)

 Max Temperature (0C) -0.212*
Min Temperature (0C) -0.437**
Maximum Relative Humidity (%) -0.206*
Minimum Relative Humidity (%) -0.086
Rainfall (mm) -0.027
*,** Significant at 1 and 5% probability levels, respectively

Correlation analysis

All simple correlations were calculated between study variables (disease severity, %) and
weather factors where, maximum & minimum temperature, maximum&minimum relative
humidity and rainfall. The test significance for simple correlation using Pearson Correlation.
To study the cumulative effect of different variables (independent variables) in disease
development (disease incidence, %) and multiple correlation coefficient were carried out and
linear multiple regression model was developed for prediction of disease development.

Disease severity correlated positively with disease incidence across the maximum and
minimum temperatures. The relationship was best described by a linear regression model,
y = 0.073x + 0.061;r2= 0.921, where y= disease severity, and x= disease incidence.
i) Multiple Regression (REG) for Leaf Blast

Model R R Square

1 .556a .309

a. Predictors: (Constant), rainfa

Coefficientsa
b. Dependent Variable: die seve
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized t Sig.
Coefficients
a
ANOVA
B Std. Error Beta
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1 (Constant) 151.686 34.942 4.341 .000
Regression 1763.109 5 352.622 6.534 .000b
temp max -1.161 .768 -.221 -1.512 .135
1 Residual 3939.600 73 53.967
temp min -2.837 .828 -.390 -3.427 .001
Total 5702.709 78
rh max -.398 .223 -.218 -1.781 .079
a. Dependent Variable: die severity
rh min -.194 .165 -.212 -1.176 .243
b. Predictors: (Constant), rainfall, temp max, rh max, temp min, rh min
rainfall .081 .111 .076 .733 .466

a. Dependent Variable: die severity

Multiple Linear Regression Model

Disease Severity = 115.67 - 1.16X1 - 2.84X2 - 0.4X3 - 0.19X4 + 0.081X5

 Where :

X1 = Temperature Max
X2 = Temperature Min
X3= RH Min
X4= RH Max
X5= Rainfall
Cross Table (MS 2012) Analysis

Correlations
disease disease
temp max temp min rh max rh min rainfall spore
incidence severity
temp max Pearson 1 .146 -.167 -.352** -.038 -.091 -.016 -.162
Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed) .198 .142 .001 .740 .425 .885 .153
N 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79
*
temp min Pearson .146 1 .126 .210 .143 .023 .241 .068
Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed) .198 .268 .063 .209 .838 .032 .552
N 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79
**
rh max Pearson -.167 .126 1 -.021 .564 -.195 .135 -.168
Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed) .142 .268 .854 .000 .085 .235 .140
N 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79
** * *
rh min Pearson -.352 .210 -.021 1 -.236 .252 .180 .281*
Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed) .001 .063 .854 .037 .025 .113 .012
N 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79
** * *
rainfall Pearson -.038 .143 .564 -.236 1 -.235 -.014 -.250*
Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed) .740 .209 .000 .037 .037 .900 .026
N 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79
die Pearson -.091 .023 -.195 .252* -.235* 1 .327** .949**
severity Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed) .425 .838 .085 .025 .037 .003 .000
N 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79
* **
spore Pearson -.016 .241 .135 .180 -.014 .327 1 .470**
Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed) .885 .032 .235 .113 .900 .003 .000
N 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79
* * ** **
die score Pearson -.162 .068 -.168 .281 -.250 .949 .470 1
Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed) .153 .552 .140 .012 .026 .000 .000
N 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
*. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed).

Weather parameter Disease Incidence (%)

 Max Temperature (0C) -0.091
Min Temperature (0C) 0.023
Maximum Relative Humidity (%) -0.195
Minimum Relative Humidity (%) 0.252*
Rainfall (mm) -0.235*
*,** Significant at 1 and 5% probability levels, respectively

Disease severity correlated positively with disease incidence across the maximum and
minimum temperatures. The relationship was best described by a linear regression model,
y = 0.052x + 0.045 ;r2= 0.90, where y= disease severity, and x= disease incidence.
i) Multiple Regression (REG) for Leaf Blast

Model Summary

Model R R Square Adjusted R Std. Error of the

Square Estimate

1 .330a .109 .048 39.93323

a. Predictors: (Constant), rh max, rh min, temp min, temp max, rainfall

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.

Regression 14249.123 5 2849.825 1.787 .126b

1 Residual 116410.371 73 1594.663

Total 130659.494 78

a. Dependent Variable: die severity

b. Predictors: (Constant), rh max, rh min, temp min, temp max, rainfall

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized t Sig.

Coefficients

B Std. Error Beta

(Constant) 237.865 280.321 .849 .399

temp max -1.900 4.596 -.052 -.413 .680

temp min 1.685 8.746 .023 .193 .848

1
rh min .811 .533 .198 1.522 .132

rainfall -.427 .520 -.116 -.821 .414

rh max -1.973 1.968 -.137 -1.003 .319

a. Dependent Variable: die severity

Multiple Linear Regression Model (Leaf Blast)

Disease Severity = 237.87 - 1.9X1 + 1.69X2 + 0.81X3 - 0.43X4 - 1.97X5

Where :

X1 = Temperature Max
X2 = Temperature Min
X3= RH Min
X4= RH Max
X5= Rainfall
i) Multiple Regression (REG) for Panicle Blast

Model Summary

Model R R Square Adjusted R Std. Error of the

Square Estimate

1 .672a .452 .347 15.78273

a. Predictors: (Constant), rh max, temp min, rh min, temp max, rainfall

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.

Regression 5341.413 5 1068.283 4.289 .006b

1 Residual 6476.462 26 249.095

Total 11817.875 31

a. Dependent Variable: die severity

b. Predictors: (Constant), rh max, temp min, rh min, temp max, rainfall

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized t Sig.

Coefficients

B Std. Error Beta

(Constant) -676.567 214.295 -3.157 .004

temp max 9.820 3.060 .488 3.209 .004

temp min 7.338 4.732 .228 1.551 .133

1
rh min 1.787 .530 .503 3.372 .002

rainfall -.322 .314 -.220 -1.024 .315

rh max 2.300 1.384 .360 1.661 .109

a. Dependent Variable: die severity

Multiple Linear Regression Model (Panicle Blast)

Disease Severity = -676.57 + 9.82X1 + 7.34X2 + 1.79X3 - 0.32X4 + 2.3X5

Where :
X1 = Temperature Max
X2 = Temperature Min
X3= RH Min
X4= RH Max
X5= Rainfall