Biology 300, Biometrics

Homework #2 Key
Answer each question and show intermediate calculations. Please be neat! Do the work with a
hand calculator by yourself. After all, that's the way you'll need to do it during an exam!

1. Previous work demonstrated that rock fish near a source of effluent had a 20% probability of
developing fin rot. As part of a monitoring plan, it was proposed that each month five fish
should be sampled at random and examined for fin rot. If five fish are sampled at random, what
is the probability distribution for the number of fish with fin rot? Show the results to five
decimal places. (6 points)
Each of the five sampled fish represents an independent trial and each trial has two possible outcomes: fin rot or healthy.
Therefore, the probabilities can be determined using the binomial distribution:

N! k N–k
Prob  X=k  = ------------------------- p q
k!  N – k !

where A = fish has fin rot,

B = fish is healthy,
p = Prob(A) = probability that a fish has fin rot,
q = Prob(B) = 1–p,
X = the fish with fin rot,
N = total number of fish in the sample.
For this problem, p = 0.2, q = 1–0.2 = 0.8, and N = 5. The probabilities are

5! 0 5–0 120
Prob  X=0  = -------------------------  0.2   0.8  = ------------------  1   0.32768  = 0.32768
0!  5 – 0 ! 1  120 

5! 1 5–1 120
Prob  X=1  = -------------------------  0.2   0.8  = ---------------  0.2   0.4096  = 0.40960
1!  5 – 1 ! 1  24 

5! 2 5–2 120
Prob  X=2  = -------------------------  0.2   0.8  = -----------  0.04   0.512  = 0.2048
2!  5 – 2 ! 26

5! 3 5–3 120
Prob  X=3  = -------------------------  0.2   0.8  = -----------  0.008   0.64  = 0.05120
3!  5 – 3 ! 62

5! 4 5–4 120
Prob  X=4  = -------------------------  0.2   0.8  = ---------------  0.0016   0.8  = 0.00640
4!  5 – 4 ! 24  1 

5! 5 5–5 120
Prob  X=5  = -------------------------  0.2   0.8  = ------------------  0.00032   1  = 0.00032
5!  5 – 5 ! 120  1 
Biometrics Homework #2 Key Page 2

2. A study was conducted looking at the incidence of skin cancer in men who work outdoors. A
random sample of 60 year-old men was evaluated and the number of incidents of basal
carcinoma was noted for each individual. The data appear below:

Skin Cancer Frequencies

Number of skin Number of
tumors per man men
0 15
1 9
2 8
3 13
4 4
5 1

(a) Compute the mean and standard deviation for the number of tumors per man to two decimal
places. (3 points)

X f f*X f*X^2 Sample size: n =  f = 50

0 15 0 0
1 9 9 9 Arithmetic mean: x = ( f*X)/n = 85/50 = 1.70 tumors/man
2 8 16 32
3 13 39 117
4 4 16 64 Std. Dev. = s = Sqrt([ ( f*X2) – ( f*X)2/n ]/[n–1])
5 1 5 25 = Sqrt([ (247) – (85)2/50 ]/[50–1])
SUM: 50 85 247
= Sqrt([ (247) – (7225)/50 ]/[49])
= Sqrt([ 247 – 144.5 ]/[49])
= Sqrt(102.5/49)
= Sqrt(2.091837) = 1.446318 = 1.45 tumors/man

(b) If the development of each tumor is an independent event, then the number of tumors per
man should follow a Poisson distribution. Use the sample mean and the Poisson probability
distribution to obtain expected frequencies for these data to one decimal place. (6 points)
The probabilities can be determined using the Poisson distribution: Prob(X=k) = (e–)k)/(k!), where the sample mean
x=1.70 is used in place of .

Prob(X=0) = exp(–1.70) (1.70)0/(0!) = (0.18268352) (1)/(1) = 0.1827 Expt = n Prob(X=0) = 50 (0.1496) = 9.1
Prob(X=1) = exp(–1.70) (1.70)1/(1!) = (0.18268352) (1.7)/(1) = 0.3106 Expt = n Prob(X=1) = 50 (0.3106) = 15.5
2
Prob(X=2) = exp(–1.70) (1.70) /(2!) = (0.18268352) (2.89)/(2) = 0.2640 Expt = n Prob(X=2) = 50 (0.2640) = 13.2
Prob(X=3) = exp(–1.70) (1.703/(3!) = (0.18268352) (4.913)/(6) = 0.1496 Expt = n Prob(X=3) = 50 (0.1496) = 7.5
Prob(X=4) = exp(–1.70) (1.70)3/(4!) = (0.18268352) (8.3521)/(24) = 0.0636 Expt = n Prob(X=3) = 50 (0.0812) = 3.2

Prob(X5) = 1 – Prob(X4) = 1 – [ Prob(X=0) + Prob(X=1) + Prob(X=2) + Prob(X=3) + Prob(X=4) ]

= 1 – [ 0.1827 + 0.3106 + 0.2640 + 0.1496 + 0.0636 ] = 1 – 0.9705 = 0.0295
Expt = n Prob(X5) = 50 (0.0295) = 1.5
Biometrics Homework #2 Key Page 3

3. Egg weight for a breed of hens has a mean of 49.3 g and a standard deviation of 5.0 g. An egg
is considered “small” if it weighs less than 42.0 g, “medium” if its weight falls between
between 42.0 g and 54.0 g, and “large” if it weighs more than 54.0 g. Assuming that egg weight
follows a normal distribution, answer the following questions.
(a) What is the percentile of an egg with a weight of 51.7 g? (1 point)
For this problem, = 49.3 g,  = 5.0 g, and X1 = 51.7 g. The percentile is given by

percentile = Prob(X < X1) (100%)

= Prob(Z < Z1 = (X1 – )/) (100%)
= Prob(Z < (51.7 – 49.3)/5.0) (100%)
= Prob(Z < 2.4/5.0) (100%)
= Prob(Z < 0.48) (100%)
= [0.5 + Prob(0 < Z < 0.48)] (100%)
= [0.5 + A] (100%)
= [0.5 + 0.1844] (100%) = (0.6844) (100%) = 68.44% or 68th percentile.

(b) What egg weight corresponds to the 67th percentile? (1 point)

For this problem,  = 49.3 g,  = 5.0 g, and the percentile = 67%. The corresponding value of X1 is the solution to
Prob(X < X1) = 0.67. For Table A, (0.5+A) = 0.67, so A = 0.67–0.5 = 0.17. This gives a value of Z1 = 0.44 from Table A.

0.67 = Prob(Z < Z1 = (X1 – )/)

= Prob(X < X1 =  + Z1)
= Prob(X < X1 = 49.3 + 5.0 (0.44)
= Prob(X < X1 = 49.3 + 2.2) = Prob(X < X1 = 51.5)

Thus, X1 = 51.5 g is the 67th percentile.

(c) What proportion of eggs are predicted to fall into the small, medium, and large categories?
(3 points)
For this problem, = 49.3 g,  = 5.0 g, X1 = 42.0 g and X2 = 54.0 g.

Prob(small) = Prob(X < X1))

= Prob(Z < Z1 = (X1 – )/)
= Prob(Z < (42.0–49.3)/5.0)
= Prob(Z < –7.3/5.0)
= Prob(Z < –1.46)
= 0.5 – Prob( –1.46 < Z < 0)
= 0.5 – A1 = 0.5 – 0.4279 = 0.0721

Prob(medium) = Prob(X1 < X < X2) Prob(large)= Prob(X > X2)

= Prob( (X1 – )/ = Z1 < Z < Z2 = (X2 – )/ ) = Prob(Z > Z2= (X2 – )/)
= Prob( (42.0–49.3)/5.0 < Z < (54.0–49.3)/5.0) = Prob(Z > (54.0–49.3)/5.0)
= Prob( –7.3/5.0 < Z < 4.7/5.0 ) = Prob(Z > 4.7/5.0)
= Prob( –1.46 < Z < 0.94 ) = Prob(Z > 0.94)
= Prob( –1.46 < Z < 0) + Prob(0 < Z < 0.94) = 0.5 – Prob( 0 < Z < 0.94)
= A1 + A2 = 0.4279 + 0.3264 = 0.7543. = 0.5 – A2 = 0.5 – 0.3264 = 0.1736