Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Indo-Pacific Region: Six Major
Security Challenges in 2018
Carlyle A. Thayer
December 30, 2017

We request your assessment of likely security challenges in the Asia-Pacific Region in
2018.
Q1 - What are key security issues that will emerge in the Asia-Pacific Region in 2018?
ANSWER: There are at least six security issues in the Asia-Pacific that will pose
challenges for peace and security in 2018.
The first and most important challenge is nuclear proliferation by North Korea.
There is increased speculation that North Korea will be successful in miniaturising a
nuclear warhead to fit on its long range intercontinental ballistic missile in March
when South Korea and the United States are expected to conduct their annual joint
military exercises.
The second major security challenge is the management of relations between the
United States and China. President Trump has criticised China for continuing to
supply oil to North Korea. At the same time, the Trump Administration appears
poised to adopt measures in response to what it claims are unfair Chinese trade
practices and theft of intellectual property. The branding of China as a strategic
competitor of the United States in the U.S. National Security Strategy has provoked a
critical Chinese response.
The third challenge concerns Japan's remilitarisation and China's response. Japan will
move to deploy ballistic missile defences on offshore islands, acquire the Joint Strike
Fighter and convert one of its ships into an aircraft carrier.
The fourth challenge is China's continuing consolidation of its position on seven
artificial islands in the East Sea and possible responses by the United States and
Japan.
The fifth challenge concerns relations between mainland China and Taiwan,
especially if the United States sells more weapons to Taiwan and increases ship
visits.
The sixth challenge is Russia's push to play a greater role in the Asia-Pacific by
offering to broker peace talks between North Korea and the U.S. and Russia-China
collaboration at a time when tensions are likely to rise between Moscow and
Washington over differences from the Middle East to Asia.
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Q2 - How does President Trump intend to carry out the policy of an open and free
Indo-Pacific Region? How will China respond?
ANSWER: The essential ingredients of Trump's "open and free Into-Pacific Region"
are twofold - free and fair trade and freedom of navigation and overflight. The U.S.
National Security Strategy points to a leadership role by the U.S. in rallying allies and
partners to oppose Chinese bullying. The Quad - the U.S., Japan, India and Australia -
will form the core of this coalition.
China will push back by offering countries economic inducements and when
necessary Chinese pressure not to form an anti-China grouping. The Quad is not an
alliance and its four members have some convergence in interests but there are
differences.
Q3 - What are the security trends in South China Sea? What Vietnam should do in
this context?
ANSWER: Two trends will dominate in the South Chin aSea in 2018: China-ASEAN
negotiations on a Code of Conduct and China's continued consolidation of its
presence on its seven artificial islands, including further militarisation. China will
argue that its moves are defensive but they are aimed at the U.S. and Japanese
navies. Two developments to watch for are (1) China's deployment of a floating
nuclear reactor to the Spratly islands to provide power and (2) China deployment of
its mega-dredger either to expand existing artificial islands or build new ones.
Vietnam has few options other than to continue to engage with China while resisting
Chinese pressures affecting Vietnam's sovereignty. Vietnam must continue to
modernise its military forces and train them for joint operations. Joint operations are
between two or more services such as navy and air defence-air force. Vietnam
should ensure that it can protect its islands and oil drilling activities in the South
China Sea.
Vietnam must also continue to play a proactive role within ASEAN, particularly on
negotiations with China on a Code of Conduct. Vietnam should be firm and should
not agree to a Code of Conduct that harms its interests. Vietnam should work closely
with Singapore as both ASEAN Chair for 2018 and as ASEAN's country co-ordinator
for relations with China.
Vietnam also should continue to ensure that all of its strategic partnerships
(especially with ASEAN dialogue partners) and other partnerships are performing to
the maximum. In the case of comprehensive partnerships Vietnam should try and
raise them to a higher level.
Finally, Vietnam should continue its proactive diplomacy in all appropriate
multilateral organisations to ensure that the South China Sea remains a region of
"cooperation, security and development."

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Indo-Pacific Region: Six Major Security

Challenges in 2018,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, December 30, 2017. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.