Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

United States: Free and Open
Indo-Pacific a Work in Progress
Carlyle A. Thayer
January 11, 2018

What is your assessment of President Trump’s “free and open Indo-Pacific” region?
What are the implications for Vietnam.
ANSWER: The idea of a free and open Indo-Pacific was originally a Japanese proposal
that predated the Trump presidency. It appears overwhelmingly focused on trade and
freedom of navigation in the maritime domain of which the South China Sea is central.
This objective is the low-hanging fruit around which the United States, India, Japan
and Australia can cooperate. But the Quad will have more difficulty reaching
consensus on what to do about China’s growing military power and militarization of
artificial islands in the South China Sea. India may not want to go down this path as it
is not a military ally of the US, while Australia, which is an ally, has reservations about
joining the U.S. in freedom of navigation operational patrols (FONOPS) because of
China’s response. The Quad is a forum for discussion not an alliance.
U.S. FONOPS do not address the question how to get China to comply with the South
China Sea award by the Arbitral Tribunal. The most egregious violation by China has
been to construct two airfields on Mischief and Subi low-tide elevations that the
Tribunal ruled are not subject to appropriation. China’s claim to sovereignty over
these two features is incomprehensible. They were submerged features until China
built on them.
If ASEAN is the centre-piece of Trump’s “free and open Indo-Pacific”, then the U.S. had
better learn how to embrace regional multilateralism.
Vietnam wants to see more defence cooperation with the United States but this
cooperation is always constrained about concerns how China will react. Vietnam will
continue to support a U.S. military presence in the region but if push comes to shove
between Washington and Beijing, Hanoi will sit on the sidelines.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “United States: Free and Open Indo-Pacific a
Work in Progress,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, January 11, 2018. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.